The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[brewcrewdue80]

I feel like the Brewers were set in on Delvin Perez last year and just before the draft his PED finding and they selected their BPA in Ray who they just set with where everyone else was and didn't adjust. We're up to 300PAs now with Ray and he's scraping a .700OPS .308OB. It was such a poor selection, passing up promising HS Pitchers. You just can't sell to me that he was the BPA in that draft over the likes of Groome, Garrett, or Manning. Kyle Lewis and Blake Rutherford better ceilings than Ray for OF.

 

How do you even determine BPA? BPA for current? a .800OPS CF in Ray over the .900+OPS OF of Rutherford ability because he's 18? Or are you taking BPA based on what you think their ceiling is? Because how was Ray's even remotely higher than Groome's or Rutherford?

 

We are not the Cubs who drafted Bats over and over because you know what? They can sign 20mil+ per year FAs to improve the weaknesses to their team. In Lackey and Heyward's case also giving up their 1st rd pick in doing so. Finding a premiere SP is so huge to a Franchise. Kershaw went 7th in 06. Bumgarner went 10th in 07. We've taken OFs with 15 and 5 picks and now come around to 9 this year.

Sale was 13th in the 2010 draft.

 

These potentials would have been there for Milw to draft 3 straight years, and thus far they've passed on the first 2. They missed on Triston McKenzie twice in '15 taking Clark then Kirby. Mike Soroka, James Kaprielian, Walker Buehler Pitchers picked after Clark who are already ranked ahead of him in the top 100. Come next year I imagine a list of 4 or 5 SPs will be ahead of Ray who the Brewers didn't pick. I realize the Kodi Medeiros pick looks a failure for producing a SP but we have a back end bullpen arm you know out of it. There's going to be a number below who they didn't pick, like Luiz Ortiz who are coming forward to be SPs. Booms or Bust trying. while Kodi has the bust look how are Harrison/Gatewood looking to start this year, bringing up the booms this year while being younger than Ray is still.

 

I feel the draft strategy for Milw needs to be booms and heliums and not the Higher Floor/less likely to bust types. Prince Fielder was that kind of Pick. You hit and you have a Franchise player. You don't so be it, you rebuild through trades. Shaw, Villar, Santana, Broxton, the catchers they may not be superb ceiling types possessing flaws but they are floor types that fill out your roster while you await hitting some Booms in the draft, of course you gotta make Boom type picks.

[MrTPlush]

Corey Ray was the best player in the draft according to some and a lot at least had him in the Top 5. Let's not act like we selected some guy to save money. I personally am not that big of a fan of Ray and not overly excited with that pick(at the time), but then again I scout from mostly my computer....so...

 

We will see where things go in the next year. He has barely had any ABs this year and is coming off injury....give him a chance.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I feel like the Brewers were set in on Delvin Perez last year and just before the draft his PED finding and they selected their BPA in Ray who they just set with where everyone else was and didn't adjust. We're up to 300PAs now with Ray and he's scraping a .700OPS .308OB. It was such a poor selection, passing up promising HS Pitchers. You just can't sell to me that he was the BPA in that draft over the likes of Groome, Garrett, or Manning. Kyle Lewis and Blake Rutherford better ceilings than Ray for OF.

 

How do you even determine BPA? BPA for current? a .800OPS CF in Ray over the .900+OPS OF of Rutherford ability because he's 18? Or are you taking BPA based on what you think their ceiling is? Because how was Ray's even remotely higher than Groome's or Rutherford?

 

We are not the Cubs who drafted Bats over and over because you know what? They can sign 20mil+ per year FAs to improve the weaknesses to their team. In Lackey and Heyward's case also giving up their 1st rd pick in doing so. Finding a premiere SP is so huge to a Franchise. Kershaw went 7th in 06. Bumgarner went 10th in 07. We've taken OFs with 15 and 5 picks and now come around to 9 this year.

Sale was 13th in the 2010 draft.

 

These potentials would have been there for Milw to draft 3 straight years, and thus far they've passed on the first 2. They missed on Triston McKenzie twice in '15 taking Clark then Kirby. Mike Soroka, James Kaprielian, Walker Buehler Pitchers picked after Clark who are already ranked ahead of him in the top 100. Come next year I imagine a list of 4 or 5 SPs will be ahead of Ray who the Brewers didn't pick. I realize the Kodi Medeiros pick looks a failure for producing a SP but we have a back end bullpen arm you know out of it. There's going to be a number below who they didn't pick, like Luiz Ortiz who are coming forward to be SPs. Booms or Bust trying. while Kodi has the bust look how are Harrison/Gatewood looking to start this year, bringing up the booms this year while being younger than Ray is still.

 

I feel the draft strategy for Milw needs to be booms and heliums and not the Higher Floor/less likely to bust types. Prince Fielder was that kind of Pick. You hit and you have a Franchise player. You don't so be it, you rebuild through trades. Shaw, Villar, Santana, Broxton, the catchers they may not be superb ceiling types possessing flaws but they are floor types that fill out your roster while you await hitting some Booms in the draft, of course you gotta make Boom type picks.

At least you're patient

[brewcrewdue80]

Braun at 5 made it to the Brewers in under 900PAs.Ray is a top 5 college selection so hes playing at levels his age, which for a high prospect makes him old for. Schwarber, Happ top 10 selections who either made it to the ML team or is knocking on the door in Happ. Cant tell me Ray is anywhere close to joining the Brewers this season. And you know that makes him waiting til July next season at earliest. He's just too old for the stats he's trying to bring. Something that Harrison, Clark, Demi O, Phillips possessed a higher ceiling already to. Theres not one tool that is elite, maybe all will be above average, but none will be elite.

[paul253]

I feel like Ray was the BPA for the Brewers in how they view their players. This new front office seems to be in love with tools which to me explains why they've targeted so many toolsy outfielders, like Ray Broxton and Brinson, and middle infielders like Diaz and Dubon. I also think they prefer college pitchers to high school and higher floors to higher ceilings when it comes to pitching. That's why im afraid they'll pass on pitching again because they feel they'll be able to get high floor pitchers in the later rounds.

[Austin Tatious]

On Pavin Smith...Taking a defensively limited player in the top 10 who you don’t think will have a .200+ ISO is a bit of a tough sale for me. Eric Hosmer is the other comparison I’ve heard there and I think Id rather gamble on a pitcher. Maybe Im just biased by Matt Laporta’s MLB failure.

 

I hear you on your concern. But I will point out that LaPorta got hot his last year in school and posted outlier data that skewed his projection. His earlier years were well off the mark. Be wary of a guy who gets hot and has numbers quite different from his norm.

 

Pavin, on the other hand, has been solid and consistent on a multi year basis so I don't think you're looking at a LaPorta.

[reillymcshane]

I feel like the Brewers were set in on Delvin Perez last year and just before the draft his PED finding and they selected their BPA in Ray who they just set with where everyone else was and didn't adjust. We're up to 300PAs now with Ray and he's scraping a .700OPS .308OB. It was such a poor selection, passing up promising HS Pitchers. You just can't sell to me that he was the BPA in that draft over the likes of Groome, Garrett, or Manning. Kyle Lewis and Blake Rutherford better ceilings than Ray for OF.

 

How do you even determine BPA? BPA for current? a .800OPS CF in Ray over the .900+OPS OF of Rutherford ability because he's 18? Or are you taking BPA based on what you think their ceiling is? Because how was Ray's even remotely higher than Groome's or Rutherford?

 

We are not the Cubs who drafted Bats over and over because you know what? They can sign 20mil+ per year FAs to improve the weaknesses to their team. In Lackey and Heyward's case also giving up their 1st rd pick in doing so. Finding a premiere SP is so huge to a Franchise. Kershaw went 7th in 06. Bumgarner went 10th in 07. We've taken OFs with 15 and 5 picks and now come around to 9 this year.

Sale was 13th in the 2010 draft.

 

These potentials would have been there for Milw to draft 3 straight years, and thus far they've passed on the first 2. They missed on Triston McKenzie twice in '15 taking Clark then Kirby. Mike Soroka, James Kaprielian, Walker Buehler Pitchers picked after Clark who are already ranked ahead of him in the top 100. Come next year I imagine a list of 4 or 5 SPs will be ahead of Ray who the Brewers didn't pick. I realize the Kodi Medeiros pick looks a failure for producing a SP but we have a back end bullpen arm you know out of it. There's going to be a number below who they didn't pick, like Luiz Ortiz who are coming forward to be SPs. Booms or Bust trying. while Kodi has the bust look how are Harrison/Gatewood looking to start this year, bringing up the booms this year while being younger than Ray is still.

 

I feel the draft strategy for Milw needs to be booms and heliums and not the Higher Floor/less likely to bust types. Prince Fielder was that kind of Pick. You hit and you have a Franchise player. You don't so be it, you rebuild through trades. Shaw, Villar, Santana, Broxton, the catchers they may not be superb ceiling types possessing flaws but they are floor types that fill out your roster while you await hitting some Booms in the draft, of course you gotta make Boom type picks.

 

300 ABs is really, really early to bestow a 'bust' (or 'success') label on any guy. Ray was placed aggressively at A+ ball last year. His first month, he had a .528 OPS. His second month, it was .819. That was pretty encouraging to see the improvement.

 

Groome had off-the-field issues that concerned the Brewers - and a lot of other clubs. There was no way they were risking taking him.

 

The Brewers loved Rutherford - and if Ray hadn't fallen, there are indications he was the club's pick. I can't say anything about Manning or Garrett, but Lewis had some sub-par workouts. There was concern he had feasted on lower level pitching, and his game might not translate to better pitchers. They did not want another Victor Roache.

 

James Kaprielian has all of 56 inning pitched and Tommy John surgery. Everyone knew Walker Buehler was immensely talented - his name was thrown around as a top 5 guy. But then it was known he was going to require TJ surgery. It was a risky pick by the Dodgers, yet kudos for them for taking the risk. I've advocated going after the guy for a year - before he came back. Dodgers however, love him.

 

Ultimately, we can throw out a dozen names and say the Brewers 'missed' on them because they didn't draft the guy. That's easy with hindsight.

 

In Ray, the Brewers saw an elite athlete with outstanding makeup who would grow into an all-star caliber player.

 

Coming into the draft, the Brewers had three guys as potential future all-stars - Groome, Perez and Ray. As noted, Groome was off the board. as was Perez due the PED thing. That left Ray.

 

Perhaps a bunch of pitchers eventually pass up Ray in the prospect rankings. Young players are extraordinarily unpredictable, so if that happened - it wouldn't shock me.

 

And I'm not defending Ray over guys like Manning - but I think to pass judgement on Ray this early is pretty shortsighted. I'll give it a few years - then we can see what happens.

[paul253]

There was no way they were risking taking him

 

Perhaps that's the issue some have with the Brewers philosophy. Too safe. And I say this without knowing what Groomes issues were. Perhaps they were that bad. But obviously at least one club felt that the reward was worth the risk and he's been pretty good so far, minus one start this year. Groome was the guy I wanted badly last year and was very very upset that they passed on him. But the Brewers played it safe with Ray. Hopefully he figures things out.

[reillymcshane]

There was no way they were risking taking him

 

Perhaps that's the issue some have with the Brewers philosophy. Too safe. And I say this without knowing what Groomes issues were. Perhaps they were that bad. But obviously at least one club felt that the reward was worth the risk and he's been pretty good so far, minus one start this year. Groome was the guy I wanted badly last year and was very very upset that they passed on him. But the Brewers played it safe with Ray. Hopefully he figures things out.

A lot of teams passed on Groome. He was probably the most talented player in the draft. That all the teams did pass on him is pretty telling.

 

Unfortunately, some teams can take more risks. Boston can buy their way out of a problem.

 

I'm not sure going after one of the players they consider to have all-star potential as playing it safe. I think that's just smart.

 

But like you said, he's our guy, and let's just hope he produces at a high level.

[paul253]

A lot of teams passed on Groome. He was probably the most talented player in the draft. That all the teams did pass on him is pretty telling

 

Well 11 teams passed on him. I'm not sure how many passed on him because of his off field issues vs passing in him becuase they had someone rated higher or because they didn't want to spend what it would take to sign him. Remember Boston went almost half a million dollars over slot to sign him.

[colbyjack]

I just wanted to respond to the comments on Pavin Smith. He actually does have some positional versatility, even if it is limited to an outfield corner and first base. But at first he could be a Gold Glover. He was also an uppper-80s/low-90s LHP in high school, so it's not like he's a one-trick pony at first base. Matt LaPorta is not a good baseline for a discussion regarding Smith, who could very well be the best hitter available in this draft (for me it's between he and Keston Hiura). If he (or Hiura) were the pick at #9 I would be pretty happy with it.

 

John Olerud is a pretty solid comp for him, and anyone else that has been compared to John Olerud (like Todd Helton).

[reillymcshane]

Write up on Pavin Smith from John Sickels at minorleagueball.com

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/4/17/14744472/pavin-smith-1b-university-of-virginia-2017-mlb-draft

 

He's been doing write ups on lots of guys available for this year's draft:

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/2/20/14668284/2017-mlb-draft-player-profile-index

[And That]

Just to be clear, those are write-ups done by Sickles and other writers at minorleagueball.com. Which is not to say the non-Sickles write-ups are any worse (or better) than the Sickles ones.

[And That]

D1 Baseball has updated its list of top 100 high school prospects. It is behind a paywall.

 

The MLB Pipeline folks will be expanding their top 50 into an updated top 100 by the end of the week.

[And That]

Patrick, would you be able to talk a little bit about Alex Toral? Doesn't make sense at #9, but PG seems to be pretty high on him, and he almost seems like a Pavin Smith starter kit, should Smith go before the first Brewers pick. Toral to me seems not as athletic as Smith, but he has a similar build and bat to ball skills, and they are obviously both left-handed first basemen. Would he be a reach at 34 or 46?

[3and2Fastball]

If he slips to #9 I'd really like to see the Brewers select Jordan Adell, a very intriguing prospect: 6.19 60, 96 mph arm, 99 mph exit velocity, plus plus athleticism

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Pl...ofile.aspx?ID=369822

 

I like Adell's potential more than Jeren Kendall, another toolsy prospect. Kendall will really need to redo his swing, which as it currently looks will not work at the MLB level

[brewmann04]

Groome had his issues in HS

[3and2Fastball]

What's the consensus on Jeren Kendall, outside of the fact that he is a WI native? Obviously, I wouldn't be thrilled with taking another OF prospect when we already have an abundance of OF's in our system. I know you have to take best available player in the first round, but I've got to think that we'll be looking more towards pitching with this pick, right?

 

I would agree strongly with this video. Kendall has the overall athleticism to be an MLB player but only if he completely rebuilds his swing

 

[ZBTMP]

I just wanted to respond to the comments on Pavin Smith. He actually does have some positional versatility, even if it is limited to an outfield corner and first base. But at first he could be a Gold Glover. He was also an uppper-80s/low-90s LHP in high school, so it's not like he's a one-trick pony at first base. Matt LaPorta is not a good baseline for a discussion regarding Smith, who could very well be the best hitter available in this draft (for me it's between he and Keston Hiura). If he (or Hiura) were the pick at #9 I would be pretty happy with it.

 

John Olerud is a pretty solid comp for him, and anyone else that has been compared to John Olerud (like Todd Helton).

 

How many homeruns do you think Smith is going to hit in his prime? Olerud topped out at 24. He was exceptional at plate discipline, walking more than striking out in his career. But in the era of big velocity, high K rates, and hyper shifting; Im not sure you can bet on any amateur to be able to duplicate that profile.

Maybe he does have historic pitch recognition skills or more power potential but Im a skeptic at 9.

[3and2Fastball]

I wonder if Pavin Smith's ceiling is somewhat close to what he did in the Wood Bat summer league? (.318/.394/.444).... strong chance to be a MLB regular, low chance to be a bust, some would label him a "safe pick" but for some reason great 1B's are tougher to find now, maybe similar to a Lyle Overbay type. Not a very exciting pick in some ways but a high floor. I think it is possible that the 3TO trend in MLB is starting to end once Smith makes it to the Show. He could indeed be the type of player (high contact, low strikeout) who is ahead of the next trend.

[reillymcshane]

I wonder if Pavin Smith's ceiling is somewhat close to what he did in the Wood Bat summer league? (.318/.394/.444).... strong chance to be a MLB regular, low chance to be a bust, some would label him a "safe pick" but for some reason great 1B's are tougher to find now, maybe similar to a Lyle Overbay type. Not a very exciting pick in some ways but a high floor. I think it is possible that the 3TO trend in MLB is starting to end once Smith makes it to the Show. He could indeed be the type of player (high contact, low strikeout) who is ahead of the next trend.

 

I'm still amazed that Pavin Smith has a 3.0% strikeout rate.

 

Jeren Kendall is at 25.6%.

[colbyjack]

Pavin Smith shows great power in batting practice. That leads many to believe he's going to hit at a higher rate as a professional. His approach is so sound, and everyone knows who he is, that he frequently doesn't get good pitches to hit. But when he does, he doesn't miss. I know two scouts in the Northeast that absolutely love Smith and think he should be rated higher given his advanced hit tool, and also believe his other tools are a little undersold.

 

That said, even if 20-25 home runs is his upside I'll still take that. I don't think that should be viewed as a negative.

 

As for Adell, everyone likes him a lot. The biggest concern is just whether or not the hit tool will translate, and if he will continue to make the necessary adjustments at the next level. He's having a huge season from a production standpoint, and may end up being the National HS Player of the Year if it continues, but there are some swing mechanic/adjustment issues that create some pause. Otherwise, he would be a Justin Upton-type No. 1 overall candidate.

 

Most I have spoken to about Kendall don't think his swing necessarily needs a complete overhaul, but he does need to learn to incorporate his lower half better into his swing. He's better than he was in HS with this, but continues to be a pretty upper-half/strength dependent swinger. That naturally leads to a lot of strikeouts. I've heard people comment and say this has a lot to do with his hockey background, among other speculation, but similar to Adell, the tools are so fascinating at some point you just have to buy into the athleticism and hope he's able to make those adjustments. Even then, one of our scouts at PG that saw him recently believes he could become a .280 type hitter with 20-20 type overall potential, which is still a pretty exciting player.

 

As for Alex Toral he's another tough one to judge thoroughly. He is sometimes patient to a fault, and makes him difficult to scout at times because the bat never leaves the shoulder. You want to see hitters that are patient in their approach yet aggressive in their swing and while you can say he definitely does the former, the latter is a little in question. However, he has a beautiful lefthanded swing and legitimate power. I've heard there may be some character issues involved, but not those that point to any disturbing activity, just that he's a more difficult personality. Without a doubt he's a candidate for the Brewers 2nd and 3rd picks. At one point I thought he would be a candidate for #9 but I think now that would be considered a stretch.

 

Keep in mind that at one point Toral was considered the #1 overall HS prospect available for this year's draft.

[3and2Fastball]

Thanks Patrick for the reply. Very interesting stuff

 

I would be curious if you have talked to old school hitting guys about Kendall? His swing is down to contact and nothing at all like what is represented in the newer Baseball evolution of the swing that we see from the greats of the game today. The old school guys, many college hitting instructors, many pro hitting instructors, still advocate swinging down to contact but zero MLB All-Stars hit that way.... it is kind of a fascinating crossroads of the evolution of Baseball we are in. I'd encourage you to check that video I posted out

[nate82]

If the Brewers could get Toral with their 2nd or 3rd pick that would be awesome.

[brewcrewdue80]

Great, watching the video and knowing Kendall is an OF, he'll be the Brewers pick.