The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[Austin Tatious]

If Kyle Wright gets to 9, you gotta run the card up to the podium.

[AshleyP]

Please excuse my ignorance on the mlb draft

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=draft

 

 

I'm not sure when this was published but does this still represent the top 10ish picks? It looks like the top 2 in Greene and Kendall rank out at a 60 grade prospect and the next 15 are 55 grade. Could we expect the Brewers to draft one of the top 17 on this list? Is there a better source for current rankings leading up to the draft?

 

Thanks all!!

[colbyjack]

tbbrewers, I like Wil Crowe, but I don't like that he turns 23 in September. That's pretty old. His stuff reminds me of Ben Sheets', with a 90-95 fastball and a really sharp breaking ball, but not much else. However, he can dominate with those two pitches. Physically he doesn't resemble Sheets at all. #9 is definitely too high for Crowe for his age alone, unless you're confident you could insert him into the starting rotation within the next 12 months, and there is an injury history there as well. #34 could be a possibility, but as of right now you're right, he probably is off the board before that pick. It could be close, though.

 

MilwaukeeBeers, lot of people are in on Austin Beck, and as noted, it's becoming more and more likely he goes among the top 3-5 overall picks. The tools are unreal, the only problem is that he hasn't shown he can handle high-level pitching after missing last summer's showcase/tournament circuit due to injury.

 

AshleyP, I'm biased, but at Perfect Game we just updated our Top 150 prospect list last week:

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=13803

 

It is subscriber based, but if you're into the draft I strongly recommend that you consider a subscription, even a monthly one, to carry you through the draft season. We have a ton of reports on players at all levels (and I'm always happy to answer questions here in this forum).

 

The MLB.com link you provided does look fairly outdated. A lot of the names remain the same, but there has been some pretty significant movement this spring.

[And That]

My "aggregate" top 20, which combines the PG top 150 with Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and some other top "xx" lists:

 

1. Hunter Greene, HS, RHP/SS

2. Jeren Kendall, 4yr, OF

3. Brendan McKay, 4yr, LHP/1B/OF

4. Royce Lewis, HS, OF

5. JB Bukauskas, 4yr, RHP

6. Austin Beck, HS, OF

7. Alex Faedo, 4yr, RHP

8. Kyle Wright, 4yr, RHP

9. DL Hall, HS, LHP

10. Jo Adell, HS, OF

11. Pavin Smith, 4yr, 1B

12. Seth Romero, 4yr, LHP

13. Taner Houck, 4yr, RHP

14. Alex Lange, 4yr, RHP

15. MacKenzie Gore, HS, LHP

16. Nick Pratto, HS, 1B/LHP

17. Hans Crouse, HS, RHP

18. Adam Haseley, 4yr, OF

19. Keston Hiura, 4yr, 2B/OF

20. Clarke Schmidt, 4yr, RHP

 

At the Brewers slots, I currently have:

9. DL Hall, HS, LHP

34. Tristan Beck, 4yr (Soph), RHP

46. Bubba Thompson, HS, OF

84. Nate Pearson, JC, RHP

114. Mitchell Stone, HS, LHP

[AshleyP]

Thank you colbyjack and And That!! Much appreciated!

[JDBrewCrew]

Baseball America just mocked Jeren Kendall to the Brewers in their second mock. The full mock draft can be found below.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-2-0-brendan-mckay-hunter-greene-lead-still-wide-open-draft/#hZjOQ7CFhB58s3go.97

[Madhawk23]

What's the consensus on Jeren Kendall, outside of the fact that he is a WI native? Obviously, I wouldn't be thrilled with taking another OF prospect when we already have an abundance of OF's in our system. I know you have to take best available player in the first round, but I've got to think that we'll be looking more towards pitching with this pick, right?

[LouisEly]

tbbrewers, I like Wil Crowe, but I don't like that he turns 23 in September.

To which I say, so what? Being a year or two older means that the Brewers could control him for more of his prime before losing him to free agency or trading him.

 

Assuming 3.5 years before reaching the majors, he'll be 22/23 during his rookie/low-A half year, 23/24 during his low-A/high-A year, 24/25 during his high-A/AA year and 25/26 during his AA/AAA year. They'll have six years of control until/through age 32. Perfect.

[MrTPlush]

What's the consensus on Jeren Kendall, outside of the fact that he is a WI native? Obviously, I wouldn't be thrilled with taking another OF prospect when we already have an abundance of OF's in our system. I know you have to take best available player in the first round, but I've got to think that we'll be looking more towards pitching with this pick, right?

 

Honestly makes me think of Keon Broxton quite a bit. 5-tool player, but KKKKKKKKs aplenty through his entire collegiate career with no improvement. A pretty big ceiling if the Ks don't cause too many troubles.

[colbyjack]

I hear you LouisEly, but it's not looked at that way from the scouting perspective, it's about his projection. Age is a big component that baseball scouts look at and it does play a significant factor in a players' overall prospect profile package. The icing on the cake with Hunter Greene, for instance, doesn't turn 18 until August. Mark Vientos doesn't turn 18 until December and is more similarly aged to a HS junior, which has caused some buzz about him sneaking up into the comp round or even the late first. It was also a positive with Groome a year ago and conversely was a slight negative with Blake Rutherford. And this isn't an opinion, it's a fact. Basically, you have to get to the big leagues first before you can start thinking about one's years of control.

 

But I too like Crowe and think he could move quickly, and more quickly than the 3.5 year timeline you laid out (which I know was done to intentionally be conservative).

 

I still will be mildly surprised if Kendall makes it that far, but of course crazier things have happened. As MrTPlush noted his K rate in college is pretty alarming (around 33%), which can be debated as to how important that is, but you would imagine that isn't likely to go down as a professional without some changes to his swing/approach. And while I always, always stress the importance of taking the best player available, I might actually be inclined to say that we have enough outfielders, especially ones that profile similar to Kendall, in Ray, Phillips and Brinson. However, I do like the Wisconsin connection, and aside from his swing-and-miss concerns, he is an incredibly talented ballplayer.

 

There is one name notably absent from BA's mock draft: Trevor Rogers. He's a prep lefty who is remarkably similar to Jason Groome and has been very impressive this spring. And keep an eye on prep RHP Shane Baz, who is on the list but recent reports are circulating that he could force his way into the top 10, if not top 5. He has been "Josh Beckett-esque" this spring.

[paul253]

Obviously, I wouldn't be thrilled with taking another OF prospect when we already have an abundance of OF's in our system. I know you have to take best available player in the first round, but I've got to think that we'll be looking more towards pitching with this pick, right

 

If the Brewers take yet another outfielder I'll be furious. I also understand the BPA argument but at some point you have to address needs and pitching is always a need. You can't just keep taking outfielder after outfielder after outfielder, and then acquire more outfielders via trade. They've really improved their outfield stock the past few years with the acquisitions of Clark, Ray, Phillips and Brinson but while they got some decent arms as well they still lack TOR pitching prospects. I just don't see how this organization can avoid pitching with back to back top 10 picks. I'd even be ok with a guy like Pavin Smith vs another outfielder.

[MrTPlush]

Yah it is easy to be furious they take another OFer until the pick Kendall and he is the next great 6+ WAR offensive force? Will you be too sad then?

[paul253]

Yah it is easy to be furious they take another OFer until the pick Kendall and he is the next great 6+ WAR offensive force? Will you be too sad then

 

If they are still a mediocre baseball team because they have no pitching then yes.

[MrTPlush]

Yah it is easy to be furious they take another OFer until the pick Kendall and he is the next great 6+ WAR offensive force? Will you be too sad then

 

If they are still a mediocre baseball team because they have no pitching then yes.

 

See the thing is we have plenty of pitching prospects, but we lack the ace so to speak. Do you understand how hard it is to actually get one of those? We have the top lefty prospect in the game according to some and he will likely never even sniff ace status. This draft, in my opinion, is pretty bad for ace potential guys. You would be selecting a pitcher an hoping he suddenly blossoms into that kind of talent.

 

I understand the concern we lack that kind of player, but way easier said than done.. If a flashy pitcher makes it to us I would love to take a shot on one, but I am not going to be sad if we go another route. I think there is a bit too much urgency to get pitching prospects amoung fans.

[nate82]

An ace is not needed to win the world series. Majority of the teams win one without an ace on their team. Aces are rare and if you are chasing around for that ace then you have already lost.

 

I would rather see the Brewers draft the best player available regardless of what position they play and regardless of how many we have at that position. You can never have enough SS, OF, Pitchers and catchers.

[homer]

Best player available. Just because you need a pitcher doesn't mean you take one if he's not worth taking at that point in the draft. Too many things happen and these kids are too far from actually contributing on the field to pick for need. Heck Brewers could make a trade or two and all of a sudden have a glut of pitching and a dearth of outfielders.

[paul253]

See the thing is we have plenty of pitching prospects, but we lack the ace so to speak. Do you understand how hard it is to actually get one of those?

 

Of course I understand how hard it is to get one. A team with Milwaukee will never sign one. They don't currently have the ammo to trade for a young one now, given that most of their major trade assets are gone. They can trade for an established one like they did Greinke and Sabathia but as with those two they are obviously short term solutions that cost a ton in terms of prospects.

 

So that pretty much leaves the draft. That's why, in my opinion, when you have the opportunity to get a guy who profiles as a 1 or 2 you jump on that opportunity, especially when you're a team like Milwaukee who has so few chances to get one.

 

As far as BPA, I usually agree with that strategy. I understand how often players wash out and there's no guarantee that drafting three outfielders in a row means you'll have three major league outfielders. But at some point you have to address need. And we always need pitching. Always. If a you're between a pitcher and an outfielder and maybe you grade the outfielder a tad bit better I'd be fine taking the pitcher even though he isn't technically the BPA. Quality Outfielders tend to be much easier to acquire then quality pitchers. They have no less then four quality outfield prospects in Brinson, Ray, Phillips and Clark, in addition to guys like Cordell, Santana and Harrison. And again, while I understand they all aren't going to make, there's enough there to take a chance on something

else

An ace is not needed to win the world series. Majority of the teams win one without an ace on their team. Aces are rare and if you are chasing around for that ace then you have already lost

 

No you don't need an ace but you still need quality and you need depth. That's obvious to anyone whose watches this team that last ten years. When he have a TOR starter and quality depth we are good. When we don't we aren't. I think Hader could be a 2 but he needs to really improve his control because he's walking too many guys and last season he could barely get out of the 6th inning many times because his pitch count was too high. Ortiz Woodruff Lopez Bickford Taylor Williams and a few others all seem like quality arms but, as has been argued, many prospects won't make it so we surely can't count on all of those guys.

 

Heck Brewers could make a trade or two and all of a sudden have a glut of pitching and a dearth of outfielders

 

I don't think there is such a thing as a glut of pitching. Other than maybe the Mets a few seasons ago I can't think of many teams that had too much quality pitching. And if it does b come a problem, well that's probably the best problem you can have.

[brewmann04]

I have to think DS is going to use some of that surplus to get some arms down the line.

[nate82]

An ace is not needed to win the world series. Majority of the teams win one without an ace on their team. Aces are rare and if you are chasing around for that ace then you have already lost

 

No you don't need an ace but you still need quality and you need depth. That's obvious to anyone whose watches this team that last ten years. When he have a TOR starter and quality depth we are good. When we don't we aren't. I think Hader could be a 2 but he needs to really improve his control because he's walking too many guys and last season he could barely get out of the 6th inning many times because his pitch count was too high. Ortiz Woodruff Lopez Bickford Taylor Williams and a few others all seem like quality arms but, as has been argued, many prospects won't make it so we surely can't count on all of those guys.

 

 

If it comes down to who is the best player at the spot the Brewers are picking I don't really care what position that player plays. He could be a 1B for all I care if he is the best player available take him. We are talking about players at best you are looking at 3-years before they are in the majors maybe 2-years. Do we even know what the holes will be for the Brewers in 3-years from now?

 

I don't like drafting based on need in baseball it works in the NBA and the NFL as for the most part the player is going to be playing right away or at a minimum they are going to sit for 1-year maybe 2-years. We are drafting guys who are between the ages of 17-24 years old and some of them are going to take a long time to get to the majors. You are looking at what 3-4 years for a high school player to make it to the majors and that is probably the earliest you can expect them at 3-years. The whole we have now could be completely filled by a guy that we drafted in the 10th round 2-years ago.

 

For the Brewers they need to be drafting based on the best player available if it is a pitcher great but if it is not then that is also great. The Brewers can't be chasing down holes in the draft.

[Austin Tatious]

Regarding position players, since the Brewers' new head of the draft has an analytics background, I am going to speculate that we might be more interested in Pavin Smith than Kendall. Kendall strikes out at an astonishing 33% rate. Meanwhile, Pavin is an advanced hitter with good plate discipline.

 

Regarding pitchers, I wouldn't take a guy who projects as a mid to back of the rotation guy at number 9 overall. Up there, I'm going to look at somebody who could project at least as a number 2 starter. Every team may not have a true "ace," depending on how you define the term. Ace or not, though, you need quality guys at the 1 and 2 spots in the rotation. This may mean more of a risk than the sure bet, and if it turns out like Mark Rogers, I can live with that, understanding that the team took a risk. No pain, no gain.

 

So, if you can get someone who has the arm talent to be a possible number 2, whether it be Faedo, Wright, Mackenzie Gore, or Bukauskus, depending on how they are viewed by the scouts, that'd be my first priority. On the other hand, if the organization is thinking is all you have are middle rotation projections on whatever's left of reasonable pitching prospects at number 9, then maybe grab a Pavin Smith who has a really good chance to be a nice bat in the middle of your order. Who knows, maybe Pavin becomes a Russo for us. That's value at 9.

 

I will say I like how some teams have a knack for identifying pitching. The Braves took Kolby Allard one pick before we got Trent Clark. That's the type of pitching move we need to start making in the draft, and frequently.

[paul253]

So, if you can get someone who has the arm talent to be a possible number 2, whether it be Faedo, Wright, Mackenzie Gore, or Bukauskus, depending on how they are viewed by the scouts. If the organization is thinking middle rotation guys on whatever's left of pitching prospects at the top, then maybe grab a Pavin Smith who has a really good chance to be a nice bat in the middle of your order.

 

Yeah I've never meant to suggest you take a pitcher just to take a pitcher. If there are no pitchers worthy of your pick then you go another direction. I'm just saying all things being equal, or close to equal, i think we have enough in the outfield that we can and should avoid selecting another one in the first round, thus making outfielders your top pick three years in a row.

 

This draft seems to be stronger in pitching. I'd be surprised if we cant find someone with at least a #2 upside at 9.

[Austin Tatious]

No worries, Paul. I think I'm pretty aligned with your view. I was nodding my head when I read your comments.

[reillymcshane]

Regarding position players, since the Brewers' new head of the draft has an analytics background, I am going to speculate that we might be more interested in Pavin Smith than Kendall. Kendall strikes out at an astonishing 33% rate. Meanwhile, Pavin is an advanced hitter with good plate discipline.

I was looking at info on Pavin Smith just last night - and was wondering about him as a possible Brewer selection.

 

In this day and age of lots of strikeout hitters (as you noted with Kendall), Smith has six strikeouts on 168 at bats. That's pretty amazing. Hits for average, takes a lot of walks, excellent fielder. Good, but not great, power. The comp I see on him is John Olerud.

 

He also looks like a player that could advance quickly to the majors (which isn't critical, but nice).

 

The play of Thames might make the team hesitant to draft a 1B. Although scouts seem to feel he would have no problem playing outfield.

 

I know a lot of people want pitching, but Smith seems more like he could be a pretty special hitter. And hitter's generally are less risky than pitchers.

[homer]

Yeah I've never meant to suggest you take a pitcher just to take a pitcher. If there are no pitchers worthy of your pick then you go another direction. I'm just saying all things being equal, or close to equal, i think we have enough in the outfield that we can and should avoid selecting another one in the first round, thus making outfielders your top pick three years in a row.

 

This draft seems to be stronger in pitching. I'd be surprised if we cant find someone with at least a #2 upside at 9.

 

I agree with this, but the statement you made below seems to suggest the brewers should take a pitcher just to take a pitcher:

 

If the Brewers take yet another outfielder I'll be furious. I also understand the BPA argument but at some point you have to address needs and pitching is always a need. You can't just keep taking outfielder after outfielder after outfielder, and then acquire more outfielders via trade. They've really improved their outfield stock the past few years with the acquisitions of Clark, Ray, Phillips and Brinson but while they got some decent arms as well they still lack TOR pitching prospects. I just don't see how this organization can avoid pitching with back to back top 10 picks. I'd even be ok with a guy like Pavin Smith vs another outfielder.

[ZBTMP]

On Pavin Smith...Taking a defensively limited player in the top 10 who you don’t think will have a .200+ ISO is a bit of a tough sale for me. Eric Hosmer is the other comparison I’ve heard there and I think Id rather gamble on a pitcher. Maybe Im just biased by Matt Laporta’s MLB failure.