The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[And That]

Patrick, I honestly didn't even look at the rest of that mock. Perfectly happy to live in a fantasy land where that situation plays out!

 

Thanks for the scouting report on Hall. I like Heatherly more, too, though would be perfectly happy with either. Every time I watch Heatherly it looks like he's just playing catch while he's pitching. Such a simple delivery.

[colbyjack]

Hah, I hear you Toby.

 

Heatherly was at our place last weekend and we filed a report (with video) on him here if you're interested (and/or haven't seen it yet):

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=13610

 

As you noted very easily delivery, he maintains the arm speed well on his curveball, a pitch that shows very good depth. Hall's curve is nastier, but I just think Heatherly has the better pure package.

 

And we'll be profiling Jake Eder in our next MLB Draft Pack next Friday.

[brewcrewdue80]

So how's this draft class doing? Experts? Far too long between posts in this thread! What? 2months away?

[colbyjack]

Well Hunter Greene is a pretty special talent. We already knew that, but he keeps on showing it. He SITS (no touches) mid- to upper-90s and touches 103. And he's a legitimate 1st-round candidate as a hard-hitting shortstop. He's the best prospect so few people are talking about as everything about him is unreal. He also has the prep pitcher thing working against him, but he's such a unique talent it's hard to imagine him not going 1 or 2 overall. But, it's possible if the pricetag is there (and some are guessing it might be). He comes from an affluent family so he may be one of those rare types that wants to go to college. In my humble opinion he needs to begin his pro career.

 

Austin Beck has really soared up draft boards. He was injured last spring and summer so we fell somewhat off draft boards but he has been compared to Mike Trout for his foot speed, bat speed and arm strength. He's a true 5-tool talent but the biggest concern with him is the level of competition he's played. Since he was injured he didn't face good pitchers consistently, and he plays pretty weak competition in NC. He should go top 3-5 overall.

 

Brendan McKay has really helped himself this year, both pitching and hitting, and it's hard to determine where he's going to go. The thought, now, is that you start him as a hitter and you can always fall back on pitching. However, he makes pitching look so easy, but his best pure tool is his 70 grade power. Most think he's likely to go No. 1 overall and if he doesn't the Reds at No. 2 are expected to take him.

 

Houston LHP Seth Romero has emerged as a potential 1-1 candidate. He's lost a bunch of weight and has really trimmed himself up. There's some off-the-field concerns but his stuff sits low-90s, touches 94-96 routinely and he has good secondary pitches.

 

JB Bukauskas has solidified himself as an early first rounder as he may have the best pure stuff in the draft. However, he's a 6-foot RHP with some believing he may be better as a closer. The same thing, however, was said about Gerrit Cole and Lance McCullers in their careers. McCullers might be a good comp for Bukauskas.

 

Holmen native Jeren Kendall is still supposed to go top 3-5. If the Twins take McKay #1 Kendall is expected to be high on the Reds board. The Reds love college players.

 

UC Irvine's Keston Hiura and Virginia's Pavin Smith are the draft's 2 best pure hitters. Hiura's future position is a little in question, as an elbow (or hand, I can't remember) injury has limited him to DH for most of this season, while Smith is best off at 1B, although he could play a corner OF spot. Even if Hiura is a future LF it may not matter as each can hit and hit for power with selective batting eyes. I think taking Hiura at No. 9 for the Brewers would be similar to when the Cubs took Ian Happ, I believe at the same spot, 2 years ago.

 

Prep LHPs MacKenzie Gore and Trevor Rogers have really moved up boards this spring. Gore is throwing harder, more consistently, and while Rogers already could throw hard the other pieces are coming together for him. If you like Jason Groome last year than Rogers is your man this year. Another prep LHP, DL Hall, has solidified his status as a likely first half of the first round pick and all three could be on the table for the Brewers at No. 9.

 

Jordon Adell is a fascinating prospect, a true boom or bust player with unreal tools but uncertainty about how they're going to convert at the next level. If everything clicks for him he could be a superstar. I could see a team like the White Sox, Phillies or even the Rockies being in on Adell given how much of a premium they place on sheer athleticism.

 

Prep OF Royce Lewis has also solidified himself as a likely top 5-7 overall pick, maybe even higher. His hitting approach and athleticism are actually similar to those of Ryan Braun in that he has a middle to opposite field approach but can also still pull the ball. He can run and throw and has some positional versatility.

 

I still like Mizzou's Tanner Houck as a possibility for the Brewers. There are prospects I like more, but he's pretty consistent, as he works 91-94, can touch higher and has a pretty good slider that he shows a great deal of comfort throwing.

 

Keep an eye on Matt Sauer, a RHP from SoCal that has good size and things seem to be clicking for him this spring. I think No. 9 is a little rich at this point, but he's forced himself into the first round conversation in short order.

 

College pitchers who have fallen a little include Florida's Alex Faedo and Vanderbilt's Kyle Wright. Faedo's stuff hasn't been as dominant while Wright hasn't been as sharp this spring. But both have shown better in the past and there's still enough time this spring for both to rebound.

[Austin Tatious]

Great write-up, Colby. And you avoided saying helium, so kudos. Appreciate the read. As always, there are lots of updates to the projections as the spring data comes in. Faedo, in particular, was supposed to be at or near the top of the draft and now sounds like he has slipped off the perch at the moment.

[sfl2hnq17]

I'd love it if Alex Faedo fell to the Brewers at 9.

[nate82]

I am kind of disappointed that Joe Boyle opted out of the draft oh well I guess we will need to have the 1st pick in the draft to get him when he comes out of college.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/joe-boyle-opts-out-of-mlb-draft-2017/#3QUXltPHkoZsejSQ.97

 

I would really like either MacKenzie Gore or DL Hall at the #9 spot.

[brewcrewdue80]

Thanks Colby with the response and info.

seemed a lot of names atop the top 10. For this draft class are they calling it say like a top heavy talent like 2005? Is it deep in talent? Or talented onlynear the top and fizzles out towards end of 1st rd? Which of the recent years of drafts would it compare to?

[colbyjack]

brewerfan17, Faedo is going to fall a lot further than 9 as it stands now. He and Wright are more likely to be taken in the latter half of the 1st than at the top.

 

brewcrewdude80, this year's draft is kind of similar to last year's (2005 was too special of a year). The college ranks are really lacking in impact talent among bats, and it seems as though every player has a significant wart (how high is McKay's ceiling, JB Bukauskas is too short, can Jeren Kendall hit advanced pitching, Keston Hiura doesn't have a true position, Seth Romero has off-field issues, etc.). Also similar to last year, the difference in talent between the 1st pick and the last may not be as great as it is some years. And look for teams to reach for a few hitters early, especially among the college ranks, as there is more depth among the pitchers than hitters.

 

2018 could be a pretty special draft.

[sfl2hnq17]

Thanks colby; why the fall for Faedo?

[reillymcshane]

Thanks for write up, Colby. Appreciate it.

[foamboy1]

Yes - Colby - I too want to thank you. Great summary of how things are beginning to shape up.

[lynchp]

Who are the top 5 catchers and top 5 at 3B in the 2017 draft?

 

Is there a chance the Brewers go after one of them in the 2nd or 3rd? Would you say catcher and 3B are the weakest positions in the Brewer organization? If not what is the weakest positions for the Brewer organization?

 

Does the current Brewer staff members in charge of the draft prefer high school or college prospects?

[colbyjack]

brewerfan17 – his stuff wasn't as good to open the spring, and he hasn't been as sharp as a result. We (PG) actually have Faedo and Wright still ranked fairly high, but word on the street suggests they need to finish the spring strong or be at risk of falling to the bottom, or possibly even out of, the first round. I think Faedo did have a minor arm thing going on, nothing to worry about, but it could have effected his velo.

 

reillymcshane and foamboy, you're welcome, always good to hear from a few long timers.

 

I know it's subscriber based, but we released our updated top 150 prospect list today:

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=13803

 

I'm happy to answer any questions you may have about it, other than "can you copy and paste the entire list here" .

 

lynchp, top 5 catchers and third basemen:

 

Catchers: MJ Melendez (prep), Mike Rivera (college, Florida), Riley Adams (college, San Diego), Luis Campusano (prep), Matt Whatley (college, Oral Roberts).

 

3B: Jake Burger (college, Missouri State), Jacob Gonzalez (prep), Joe Dunand (college, NC State), Ryan Vilade (prep), Jayson Gonzalez (prep).

 

Melendez is an interesting athlete, with more of a slender, wiry strong frame and a big-time arm with promising offensive tools as a LH hitter. Rivera is a take-charge backstop with some pop that is on the short side, while Riley Adams is more of an offensive-minded catcher with a very strong arm but questionable catch-and-throw skills. I really would like to see the Brewers add one of these three with one of their picks between the comp and their second rounder.

 

Burger is more of a first baseman at the next level. Gonzalez is Luis' son, but makes great in-game adjustments and has done a really good job firming up his body. He makes really good, consistent hard contact against high level pitching at bigger tournament events. Dunand and Vilade are versatile athletes with intriguing power while Jayson Gonzalez is surprisingly athletic for his frame (he looks more like a football player) but there are some concerns as a result about him being able to stay on the left side of the infield. However, he currently plays SS. For third baseman I would prefer to target a shortstop that may outgrow the position, such as Adam Hall, Mark Vientos or Christopher Seise, and even then I wouldn't immediately move them to third. It's not a great draft for pure third baseman. Dunand might be a good fit, as he's pretty rangy and athletic and can play SS but is a better fit at third at the next level. Vientos would be an interesting target for the team's comp pick.

[And That]

What are your thoughts on Brent Rooker? He's not Andrew Benintendi, but he seems to have had a Benintendish rise up draft boards recently, to the point where he's probably a first round consideration. Should the Brewers consider him at 34 or 46 if he's still there?

[And That]

FWIW, which is not much.

 

If you take the top prospect rankings from a number of sources, including Perfect Game, Baseball America, D1 Baseball, among others, and then you average them together, these are the guys that come in at the Brewers' picks:

 

9: D.L. Hall

34: Quentin Holmes

46: Evan White

84: Jake Mangum

114: Connor Wong

 

I'd be very happy with that.

[Jenkins5]

D.L. Hall I feel offers that advanced feel Montgomery looks for to go high school first round. My feel so far from Montgomery is that he doesn't mind high school or college as much as he cares about polish or advanced feel for pitching or hitting. Like I could not see Ray going for the boom or bust potential like Adell in early 1st at 9. He likes the talented but still safe types. Hall is I feel is going to be a very talented pitcher but more importantly has a really nice floor to start at

[sfl2hnq17]

Thanks as always colby; good info. Any way Faedo makes a fall to us in the Comp A round?

[Austin Tatious]

Colby, I take it you have the two college catchers, JJ Schwarz (Florida) and KJ Harrison (Oregon) as moving to other positions? Otherwise I would have thought they would make your list.

 

To me, other than front line starter, good catching is the next hardest thing to find. And with their shelf lives, it's essentially a position to constantly replenish.

[colbyjack]

We have scouts at Mississippi State/South Carolina, Florida/Vanderbilt and Louisville/Georgia Tech this weekend so I have the benefit of some good first-hand info.

 

First of all, Kyle Wright may have put himself back in position to be in consideration for the 1-1 pick tonight. He tossed a CG against Florida, striking out 13 (I think) and giving up only 3 hits. Was consistently 92-95 with very good command, something that's been lacking this season. Obviously, he needs to be more consistent, but that was an eye-opening performance.

 

Faedo was strong last night, but not as strong as Wright, although his pure stuff looked better than before: 92-94 fairly consistently, but the command wasn't as strong. But not, it is very unlikely he falls to the Brewers comp pick. Someone will still take him in the first round based on his performance record alone, and he too may have helped himself get back on track with Thursday's performance.

 

Brent Rooker is going to be 23 years old in the fall I believe. He's essentially a senior sign, but he's obviously having a huge year. He can crush fastballs but struggled with off-speed stuff. For me he's a little on the stiff side but he does have good overall tools and solid bat speed. Those tools have always been there, and he did have a solid season a year ago, so it's not like this season came out of nowhere.

 

Not sure where you get your info YoungGeezy but DL Hall is more of an upside prospect than a high floor one. He has one of the better fastball/curveball combos available for this year's draft but the command can be in question at times. One of our lead scouts David Rawnsley has compared him to Scott Kazmir in the past and I think that's a very apt comparison, especially if you remember how good Kazmir was coming out of HS. He could be special but I don't think he's considered any safer as a prospect (well, compared to Adell maybe).

 

JJ Schwarz is having a bad year, and no, he's not a catcher. He hasn't re-captured the magic since his freshman season and at this point in time is very unlikely to be taken in the second or third rounds, much less the first. KJ Harrison on the other hand is a player some believe could still catch if given the opportunity. For his first two years at Oregon State he was behind Logan Ice, and now he's behind Adley Rutschman, who they really like defensively. Harrison may not have had many reps, and as a result he wasn't one of the catchers I was referring to, but he could still be in the picture for the position. His profile is limited as a first baseman.

[Jenkins5]

Thanks for the report Colby! I just get info from reading around. I think he has a ton of upside. What I meant by that is from what I have read it seems for a high school arm, he has a higher floor than most of the other ones out there. He is not as a boom or bust. There is always risk of course. To me he seems like a Trent Clark who is more advanced coming out of high school. I very well could be wrong. I'm far from a scout.

[Noche]

Schwarz may be a good target in middle rounds then as a reclamation project of sorts.

[tbbrewers]

Patrick,

 

Just curious what the scouts thought of Will Crowe's outing against MSU? It looks like #9 is to high for him to be picked and he might be gone by #34 or #46 for the crew.

 

Thanks

 

Tony

[poppatop]

already have an arm that jj schwarz got the hat trick against and kyle wright is 0 fer head to head

[MilwaukeeBeers]

My guy is Austin Beck, but I'm a sucker for power/speed combo! Hopefully he can fall to us at 9, but I have read he could go as high as the top 5, maybe even top 3.