The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[And That]

Patrick, when you have a chance I'd be interested to know your thoughts on Hans Crouse and Jacob Heatherly. Heatherly in particular is really growing on me.

[And That]

MLB Pipeline's first mock draft (yes, already).

 

Callis has the Brewers taking Virginia Cavaliers 1B Pavin Smith.

 

Mayo has the Brewers taking Kentucky prep OF/RHP Jordon Adell.

[colbyjack]

I'm a big fan of Heatherly Toby. Big-bodied lefty with smooth mechanics and a 4-pitch mix. Sits in the upper-80s to low-90s and can touch 94/95. His delivery has some downward plane to it and he attacks hitters at the knees with his fastball to either side of the plate. His curve is a little slower but he spins it well in the low-70s and he also throws a mid/upper 70s slider. He also throws a changeup but it's the least developed pitch of the 4. Most importantly he keeps getting better and progressed all summer long. I think we have him ranked 15th and I may argue that's 5-10 spots too low, definitely one of my faves.

 

Crouse is about as funky as you can get but he creates one of the most difficult at-bats for opposing hitters. He absolutely shut down Cuba for Team USA in the championship game and has a lot of arms and legs coming at you and he frequently alters his arm angle. He tops out around 96-97 and can sit at 91-93 with a lot of life, mixing in a good mid-70s curve and low-80s change. His personality matches his delivery, which endears him to some, creates questions for others.

 

As for that mock, I really like Pavin Smith. He might be the best hitter available for next year's draft, but he's definitely a bat-first player. He's good defensively at 1B with soft hands and good instincts, but he's limited to there or LF. I just don't know if that profile matches the more toolsy approach our scouting department has taken the last few years, but I would be pretty happy if it happened that way.

 

Adell on the other hand defines tools. He might be the most toolsed-up prospect to come out of high school since Justin Upton.

[LouisEly]

[sarcasm]McKay had a higher BA and OBP than Corey Ray.[/sarcasm]

 

Actually, I'm half sarcastic there. McKay did lead the team in 2B and was .006 short of Ray in the OPS department, and his pitching line was pretty good (109.2 IP, 89 H, 128 K, but 42 BB and 8 gopher balls were a bit on the high side).

 

This begs the question... is it plausible for McKay to both pitch and play 1B in the pros? I don't know if he could play the day after pitching, but would it be feasible to pitch, rest the next day, then play three games at 1B? Would it even be wise to pursue that - would it take too much time trying to learn pitching and hitting (much less fielding two positions) and not allow enough focus on one aspect of the game? Assuming he makes the majors, would it be worth the roster spot you could save if it compromised his development at both positions?

 

McKay's SLG was exactly the same last year as Pavin Smith's, and his OBP was .004 higher; if McKay and Smith are both on the board, I think you'd have to go with McKay (I realize that wasn't the case with the mock as McKay had already been picked). But I'm curious what the threshold is where you go McKay at #9 compared to who else is on the board.

[3and2Fastball]

Mayo has the Brewers taking Kentucky prep OF/RHP Jordon Adell.

 

That would be exciting. Adell reminds me a little of Jason Heyward. Not a bad comp for a floor

[3and2Fastball]

This begs the question... is it plausible for McKay to both pitch and play 1B in the pros? I don't know if he could play the day after pitching, but would it be feasible to pitch, rest the next day, then play three games at 1B? Would it even be wise to pursue that - would it take too much time trying to learn pitching and hitting (much less fielding two positions) and not allow enough focus on one aspect of the game? .

 

Babe Ruth thought it'd be impossible, didn't want to do it. Clayton Kershaw wants to do it but the Dodgers won't let him. The problem is (among other things), 1B's still have to throw sometimes.

 

I could see, potentially, a Bumgarner type DH'ing on off days in the AL, but it is tough enough making the show as either a pitcher or hitter, let alone both

[brewcrewdue80]

[sarcasm]McKay had a higher BA and OBP than Corey Ray.[/sarcasm]

 

Actually, I'm half sarcastic there. McKay did lead the team in 2B and was .006 short of Ray in the OPS department, and his pitching line was pretty good (109.2 IP, 89 H, 128 K, but 42 BB and 8 gopher balls were a bit on the high side).

 

This begs the question... is it plausible for McKay to both pitch and play 1B in the pros? I don't know if he could play the day after pitching, but would it be feasible to pitch, rest the next day, then play three games at 1B? Would it even be wise to pursue that - would it take too much time trying to learn pitching and hitting (much less fielding two positions) and not allow enough focus on one aspect of the game? Assuming he makes the majors, would it be worth the roster spot you could save if it compromised his development at both positions?

 

McKay's SLG was exactly the same last year as Pavin Smith's, and his OBP was .004 higher; if McKay and Smith are both on the board, I think you'd have to go with McKay (I realize that wasn't the case with the mock as McKay had already been picked). But I'm curious what the threshold is where you go McKay at #9 compared to who else is on the board.

 

Of posters here, Louisely, you're one of maybe 3 Id think would have answer to that. Alex Verdugo i know I loved back in the 2014 predraft mention Id take him with Brewers 2nd pick, keep him as pitcher and turn him to another Yovani with the bat ability. Dodgers from day one drafted him as a position player.

I think the two-way player is just not feasible in a developmental mind. The injury risk increases if a better batter and as pitcher gets TJ required. The opposite would be breaking a bone in the field of play, or hamstring issues.

I'd be thrilled to hear a two way prospect develope and reach ML level. Just seems you go one route, and when that stalls try to go back to the other. Ramirez being that latest Milw example.

[clancyphile]

You know... maybe a Kieschnick-type approach?

 

He comes up as a position player, but you have the option to put him in for a few innings in a blowout, or for extra innings.

[MrTPlush]

You could probably become a reliever/hitter, but you would likely be better off commiting to just one.

[3and2Fastball]

The amount of work pitchers put in, in between appearances, is staggering.

 

The amount of work hitters put in is also mindblowing.

 

Just really hard to imagine anyone being able to do both. I could see Hunter Greene being a possibility though. It'd have to be a relief pitcher I would think (agree with MrTPlush)

[LouisEly]

Of posters here, Louisely, you're one of maybe 3 Id think would have answer to that.

Is that good or bad?

 

IIRC, Kieschnick was a reliever who occasionally PH. I think it would be easier to hurt your arm if you were a position player who occasionally pitched in a blowout than a reliever who routinely pitches and occasionally pinch-hits.

 

That being said, you don't want to spend a top-10 pick on a player who profiles as a reliever. But at that point (or further in the draft) there can't be that much difference between the potential of the top 2-3 pitchers on your board, so why not go with the better hitter if you are a NL team?

 

Maybe the question is, what is the added value of his bat every five days (and occasionally as a PH) compared to the other pitchers on the board? If he profiles as a #3, and another guy profiles as a #2 but hits like Ben Sheets, which one do you go with?

[brewcrewdue80]

Of posters here, Louisely, you're one of maybe 3 Id think would have answer to that.

Is that good or bad?

 

Maybe the question is, what is the added value of his bat every five days (and occasionally as a PH) compared to the other pitchers on the board? If he profiles as a #3, and another guy profiles as a #2 but hits like Ben Sheets, which one do you go with?

Its good.

 

And that answer is easy. I take the #2 who hits like Sheets every time.

If starters get 33 starts. #2s would be shy or near 6.2IP avg. #3s at 6IP. You get maybe 2.9Abs with #3 and 3.1 with #2s. So lets put a 100-110. #2 to me is 3.25-.55ERA #3 is a 3.6-.85ERA.

I dont think the rare bat ability exceeds the pitching ability. That bat gets less use due to the more runs/less IP. So part of its positive is counteracted by the negative of runs allowed. Meanwhile the #2 who lasts to 6.2IP with weaker bat. It's easier to make decision of PH, allow to pitch longer and bat. The game outcome pct. Is later so those later/extra Abs, they come with less effect on game impact.

[colbyjack]

I'm a little surprised some team out there hasn't tried to develop a player both ways. I don't think it will happen with a first-rounder given the money invested -- too much concern about injury due to overall overuse, unless that player is an athletic freak of nature.

 

Which McKay isn't. His body is one red flag. He's not overweight, but he's certainly not neat and trim either, just a big fella. That said, he knows how to pitch (he's a starter for sure) and as I believe I've stated earlier in this thread his highest pure tool is his raw power, which one scout I spoke to last summer put a 70 on. His pitchability does push up his pure stuff a notch or two, and he can touch the mid-90s even if he mostly sits 88-92.

 

I like Pavin Smith better as a hitter and I think there will be one of the power-armed pitchers left on the board at #9, but again, I like the concept. McKay may not even be available with another big season on the mound as he's currently my favorite to win the Golden Spikes Award.

[DHonks]

Colby, I've always wondered why teams don't let guys dabble with 2-way players more. If I'm giving a kid a lot of money, I'd want the best opportunity to earn a return on my investment. Given that studies show multi-sport athletes are less likely to face injuries (due to natural cross-training), wouldn't it benefit a baseball player to move defensively, pitch, and also swing a bat? Completely different muscle groups would be getting trained with each

[colbyjack]

That's a pretty complex question DHonks, and I don't know science/medicine related issues enough to know if there's something to that. I personally think the sports specialization conversation is a little overblown, I'm not even sure if that topic matters once they've reached 18+ years old and I'm not sure if the actions are different enough to even make a difference.

[MadThinker88]

Pitching is still the name of the game. You got it, many things are possible. You don't have it, your scrambling for it.

DS has done a very good job building up the system in many positions around the diamond. He has addressed the mound as well.

 

That said, get more pitching where you can, when you can.

[Mass Haas]

If the Brewers call this name in June, we'll think back to this feature on El Camino College RHP Cassius Hamm, Milwaukee mentioned specifically.

[sheetskout]

Pitching is still the name of the game. You got it, many things are possible. You don't have it, your scrambling for it.

DS has done a very good job building up the system in many positions around the diamond. He has addressed the mound as well.

 

That said, get more pitching where you can, when you can.

 

I couldn't agree more especially with this upcoming draft and our current status with position players. The only position player that I'd check on would be a C like Schwarz because of our depth there but I fully expect the Brewers to draft an arm coming up.

 

But, given our prospective playoff-timing (2-3 years), assuming a P is selected do they go college-arm to try to fit that time-schedule or a project like a HS arm. I know there may be BPO responses coming but I honestly don't think the Brewers will take that approach in this specific draft.

[MrTPlush]

But, given our prospective playoff-timing (2-3 years), assuming a P is selected do they go college-arm to try to fit that time-schedule

 

Honestly I think that is just a poor idea. We did that once with Jungmann and Bradley. They both took forever to develop and both were duds. They may take a college pitcher, but the intent to speed them through the minors to help you compete is not going to be the reason. The only way you do it is if that player is also a pretty high ceiling guy like Carlos Rodon was. However good luck finding that 9 picks deep.

[colbyjack]

Some early draft rumblings a month into the college season:

 

The top 3 picks may very well be Hunter Greene (HS RHP that has thrown triple digits recently), Jeren Kendall (Holmen native, 5-tool OF from Vanderbilt) and Brendan McKay. What's interesting about McKay, given the discussion about his earlier in this thread, is that he's drawing interest that high as a power hitting first baseman. Keep in mind he is very, very good on the mound, but his best raw tool is his power (70).

 

Austin Beck, a prep OF from NC, and Keston Hiura, an OF with the potential to play at 2B at the next level for UC Irvine, are also generating a lot of draft buzz and could their way into the first half of the first round.

[And That]

Here is Baseball America's first mock draft of the year, by John Manuel (top 10 picks only).

 

Really like the Brewers' pick.

[And That]

I saw this mock draft the other day, that has the Brewers taking Hall at 9 and Heatherly at 34 - that would be great. And another HS LHP I like, Jake Eder, was still on the board at 46.

[brewers888]

I wouldn't get my hopes up in regards to the Brewers picking a high school pitcher high in the draft. Stearns with his statistical ways seems to prefer college guys at the top of the draft. It also has to be a concern that Montgomery is no longer the scouting director and was replaced in this job by a guy with a computer background instead of an extensive scouting background like Ray Montgomery has.

 

I know that Montgomery was given a promotion but is he involved in the draft at all or is that all in the past. I think he is our best executive and really hope he still has a big say in who we draft.

 

It is still my belief that we should have gone with Groome in the last draft and really want to see some high upside high school pitchers selected in this draft but I just don't see it happening. Hopefully Stearns doesn't insist on another college outfielder with less upside like we just selected in the last draft.

[reillymcshane]

It is still my belief that we should have gone with Groome in the last draft and really want to see some high upside high school pitchers selected in this draft but I just don't see it happening.

There were some off field issues that caused the Brewers - and many other teams - to pass on Groome.

 

And not just 'a kid being a kid' type stuff.

[colbyjack]

Dear Toby, that 2nd mock draft is really bad. I too like Hall and Heatherly (and Eder), but I wouldn't count on that, at all, in March, when it is already painfully outdated, to determine who might be available where.

 

If you like Hall read the report on him in our first MLB Draft Pack of the year (Insider based, I'll copy and paste link below -- for the record I actually like Heatherly better than Hall):

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=13638

 

D.L. Hall – LHP

 

Height/Weight: 6-2/175

Bats/Throws: L/L

Birthdate: Sept. 19, 1998

High School: Valdosta

Hometown: Warner Robins, Ga.

Travel Team: Chain Marucci Black

Commitment: Florida State

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

Player comparisons are best when the scout/writer making the comparison has seen both players extensively at the same relative age. I was fortunate enough to see Scott Kazmir pitch frequently when he was a teenager before he eventually was picked in the first round by the New York Mets. Georgia southpaw D.L. Hall is about as close as it gets as a comparison at the same age.

 

Hall has an inch or maybe two on Kazmir at the same age but generally has the same athletic build, with long arms for his height and plenty of athleticism for a pitcher. There are plenty of similarities in the deliveries as well, as both have a moderate but not concerning amount of energy through release but nothing that is worrisome, especially given their level of athleticism. Hall's arm action, like Kazmir's, is sound and repeatable and similar on all his pitches.

 

Most importantly, their stuff is very similar as well. Both last summer and so far this spring, Hall has generally been pitching in the 92-95 mph range with his fastball and touching higher at times. His fastball is pretty straight but will get some running action at times but is generally kept down in the zone well.

 

Hall's best pitch, however, is his curveball, which ranks as one of the top, if not the best, off-speed pitches in the 2017 draft class. It's thrown with the proper velocity differential to his fastball, generally sitting in the 77-79 mph range, and has outstanding tightness and sharpness. The most impressive thing about Hall's curveball is how well he commands it. Righthanders don't get a break with Hall and his curveball, he'll throw it just as often to opposite side hitters and has shown a consistent ability to both backdoor and back foot the pitch with intent. Lefthanded hitters are pretty much just overmatched.

 

Hall made an recognizable effort to throw more changeups last summer at high level events, an impressive sign in and of itself, and while he's still developing consistency with the pitch, he did pick up a number of strikeouts on it as well and gave hitters one more thing to worry about.

 

The most impressive thing that Hall did last summer was to improve his fastball command. Prior to that time, throwing strikes with his fastball was a feast or famine proposition. Hall has always been able, it seems, to throw his curveball for strikes, but it was only last June and July when he really seemed to key in a consistent fastball release point.

 

A Florida State signee, Hall is currently ranked fourth nationally in the PG class rankings, although New Mexico southpaw Trevor Rogers edges him out as the top-ranked lefthander. Regardless, Hall seems a sure thing to be a first round pick come June and likely even higher than Kazmir's 15th overall slot. (DR)