The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[adambr2]

It's pretty absurd revisionist history to say Medeiros was some huge reach. And it is equally absurd to write him off after his age 20 season. Development is never linear and Kodi is still a tremendous prospect with an impact quality arm. Give him time.

 

It's really not, as those concerns about him being a reach were expressed at the time of the draft, not just now that he's struggled. I understand why people love the upside of Kodi's arm, but he always carried a high risk. He was a very aggressive, boom or bust pick. There was always the likelihood that even if he makes it, it'll never be as a starter.

 

No one is writing him off yet but there needs to be some major improvement in the near future on his walk rates if he's ever going to progress further.

[And That]

The average A+ ball pitcher is about 23, so while I am extremely concerned about his performance this year, he also still realistically has a number of years to figure things out.

 

And something completely different, BA did a 2007 re-draft. You'll never guess who they have the Brewers picking. Rats.

 

Or who the Rockies should have taken right after him.

[adambr2]

The average A+ ball pitcher is about 23, so while I am extremely concerned about his performance this year, he also still realistically has a number of years to figure things out.

 

And something completely different, BA did a 2007 re-draft. You'll never guess who they have the Brewers picking. Rats.

 

Or who the Rockies should have taken right after him.

 

Wow, that's a loaded draft.

[And That]

If you look at how the first round actually shook out, though, Josh Vitters, Daniel Moskos, Ross Detwiler, Matt LaPorta, Casey Weathers, Jarrod Parker, Phillippe Aumont, Matt Dominguez, and Beau Mills were all taken in the first 13 picks. I don't even have a recollection of Beau Mills.

[TheCrew07]

I said it on the day of the draft, Kodi Medeiros was not a reach. If you saw him before the draft and the stuff he threw you would have agreed. He threw low/mid-90s and had one of the most wicked sliders I've ever seen.

I understand we are on opposite sides of this issue but the very idea that he wasn't a reach in the eyes of many in the baseball community is the problem, not the answer.

 

The arm slot is not an issue. None at all, and if you don't like it that's a personal preference.

I will concede that I stay away from low arm slot pitchers as a personal preference, but there's also a good reason for that. I'm not sure how you can claim the arm slot isn't an issue when in fact he couldn't keep the ball down in the zone in WI last season, and apparently was the same guy this year to a woeful result. At some point doesn't there need to acknowledgement that the results haven't come close to matching the upside? The Brewers had him back off his FB in an effort to get him to throw strikes, and we weren't talking a 1st tier FB to being with. Kodi's 2016 was a train wreck, and I do believe he was pushed to aggressively given the quality of his overall game.

 

Sorry to soap box it, but Medeiros is such a fascinating arm and I really hopes he turns it around as he's definitely one of the most unique amateur talents I have seen in person, not to mention a good kid from a really good family.

Everyone is rooting for Kodi, even me, and I agree that's he's a good kid, that's not the issue, nor will his unique development pace be the issue. The issue is projecting pitchers who have a plus pitch or 2, no matter how nasty, that are around the plate as having top of the rotation potential, when it's not that simple. In Kodi's case he's very good at spotting his slider under a RH batter's hands but that's only spot he could consistently put it in 2015. His change was almost always the same spot thigh high on the arm side of the plate, and his FB was pretty much all over the place with that great downward action. He induced a ton of groundballs on his FB's action, not it's location, and he piled up strike outs on that slider, but the better teams in the MWL figured him out and he struggled badly against them. The sum of those tools weren't as good as his peripherals would suggest, and I thought pushing him to BC was a mistake and said it many times this year.

 

There's a reason I watched his video and he wasn't even mentioned in my draft posts in 2014, I've been very consistent and open about the kind of pitchers I'd like to draft in the first round and why I want them. It's not necessary that we agree, but I do think you're letting your personal affinity for Kodi and his family cloud your overall assessment of his selection by the Brewers. I would have happily passed on him for Newcomb or Holmes and let some other team take him in the first, the fact that another team was interested in him doesn't in itself justify the selection. We could have a gone a different route and still signed both Harrison (a selection I loved) and Gatewood (who was obviously boom or bust), that's why I don't think Medeiros was chosen simply because he would sign for underslot.

 

There were also plenty of teams that saw him as nothing more than a reliever if he made it, and as I said earlier potential is relative to the eye of the beholder.

[colbyjack]

TheCrew, I assure you I'm not letting it cloud my judgement. Kodi's not the first player (along with his family) that I've gotten to know. I got to know Harrison a little bit as well but never felt as strongly about him as a prospect aside from recognizing his insane natural athletic ability. If I let every personal relationship I have with players and family members I would l likely think every one of them is going to be a future Hall of Famer.

 

I saw Medeiros pitch, in person, on three separate occasions. Each time there were dozens of other scouts watching the same thing I was and the reaction was the same as mine. When scouting you're not trying to figure out too much how a pitcher is going to do as he advances as there's a lot of crystal ball work to it. Those things may be in the back of your head but you also recognize you're watching a 16-17 year old kid who is going to need years of seasoning regardless of how polished he is. However, when you see a player that throws like he did, is athletic as he is and as composed as he is you take notice. I assure you that I was not the only person who feels Medeiros was worth the 12th overall pick and neither were the Brewers nor the Royals. There were a lot of other people out there, including one who currently works for a team in the playoffs at a fairly advanced level that would have campaigned his team to take him among the top 8-10 picks if they had a pick that high.

 

And I agree, his season was a disappointment and we now clearly have to temper our enthusiasm with him. The arm issue and is ability to locate the ball down the in zone is clearly an issue and I've read your comments about that dozens of times as I lurk in the shadows. However, you need to loosen the reins on your stance as I couldn't stay quiet this time. Obviously he needs to take step forward and I would agree with you that he has been promoted too aggressively. But, he's young and talented and hopefully will repeat A+ which will in turn give him a chance to figure some things out.

[balsamlaker]

I was surprised to see Medeiros is still only 20 y/o. This makes me feel much better about his rough season in A+.

[splitterpfj]

My first guess on the Brewers' top pick:

 

Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville

[adambr2]

My first guess on the Brewers' top pick:

 

Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville

 

That would not be disappointing. Being in the NL, getting a pitcher who can swing the bat too is also a nice bonus.

[colbyjack]

McKay is a good pitcher, and as adam noted, a good hitter too. Kind of a low-ceiling pick, but a higher floor one too who stuff plays up due to his command. I would suspect given some of the conversations there would be some people not exactly thrilled about getting a player like McKay, whose best pure tool might be his power potential.`

 

I think I've brought this up before, but as of right now there are some pretty big arms that could be in the mix for the top 10 overall picks:

 

Kyle Wright, rhp, Vanderbilt (currently #1 guy for next year per PG)

Alex Faedo, rhp, Florida (long and slender, stuff back up by big soph. year)

JB Bukauskas, rhp, North Carolina (big arm, smaller frame, some pegging him as future reliever)

Tristan Beck, rhp, Stanford (draft-eligible as soph., big stuff, former Brewers pick)

Tanner Houck, rhp, Missouri (lower, slinging delivery but low/mid 90s w/ big slider)

Colton Hock, rhp, Stanford (most unproven of bunch but may have best physical profile, could explode in spring)

 

And Wisconsin native Jeren Kendall (Holmen, WI), also of Vanderbilt, is also in the mix for the top 10 overall picks, and probably more in the 3-5 range. His profile is somewhat similar to that of Corey Ray, meaning I would be a little surprised to see the Brewers take a similar type of player two years in a row.

[splitterpfj]

Patrick, my, "problem" with the pitchers you listed is, I think several of them will be picked ahead of Milwaukee.

 

I went with McKay because, I think Wright, Faedo, Houtck and Kendall will all go before the Brewers pick.

 

Bukauskas, don't say, "possible reliever" and top ten pick in the same sentence.

 

Hock, yep, if he takes off this next season.

 

Beck, good question, if he were available, I'm sure the Brewers would consider him with that pick, former choice, or not.

 

Hey Patrick, stay away from middle infielders and outfielders, this board wants none of that in the first round ..... who's your favorite player who might make it to pick nine?

[Austin Tatious]

The scouting report I found on McKay indicated mid to back of the rotation starter. Very strong curveball. Average fastball.

 

You can get a mid rotation starter elsewhere. I'd stick with a toolsy or otherwise strong position player over a mid rotation starter any day of the week in the top 10. We already have a number of candidates to fill rotation spots 2-5 and depth behind that. Between Hader, Bickford, Ortiz, and Woodruff, I think you will get at least a couple of mid rotation guys.

 

This is why you have to jump when you have a chance to get an electric, projectable TOR pitching candidate. You don't get the opportunity all the time.

 

Tristan Beck is tricky because he loves Southern California and will have leverage in negotiations. We'd need to do some significant back room work to coax him along. He projects well, though.

[colbyjack]

I had the opportunity to write up McKay and most of the other guys from scouts I talked to (combined with a few of my own personal thoughts since I have seen half of those pitchers in person) from Team USA this past summer:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=13005

 

And I agree Todd, a lot of those players won't be available for when the Brewers pick.

 

As for the reliever profile, that's a tricky subject since there are so many parts to it. The biggest part of it, as I have observed over the years, is when one writer first makes that presumption and then everyone else runs with it. It happened with Gerrit Cole and Lance McCullers, and both obviously have developed into really good starters. I think Bukauskas and McCullers in particular have a lot of similarities given their size and the fact that neither throws anything soft. One scout I know that Bukauskas was the best college arm he saw all of last year, and he's based in SoCal (he saw him with TUSA and earlier in the year when UNC visited UCLA).

 

I have a feeling that Houck could fall. Some aren't in love with the arm angle (and I'm sure TheCrew wouldn't care for it either) as it is low and slingy, but his stuff is electric. Physically and mechanically he's a lot like Jered Weaver.

 

I do agree that Wright, Faedo and Kendall are all off the board.

 

I really like Beck, although I haven't seen him in person, and if he feel to #9 he may be my first pick. He combines a still-projectable frame with really good present stuff and plenty of room for added strength and overall improvement. Almost like one of the best prep arms with a couple of years of seasoning. The fact that he's a draft-eligible sophomore is an added benefit. I hadn't heard that he really loves SoCal (but if he does why didn't he go to a school like UCLA?), but I do know his HS coach and I don't see how he could turn down $3-4 million, regardless of what team takes him. He would probably be my favorite of those I feel could make it to the ninth pick at this point in time.

[tbbrewers]

Patrick,

 

Any reports on Will Crowe at University of South Carolina? Before Tommy John surgery he was projected to possibly be a high first round pick last year. I noticed he was throwing in the spring with good velocity but I have not heard anything from the fall yet.

 

 

Thanks

[3and2Fastball]

I will echo what others have said here is really wanting a pitcher at #9 in 2017. There are quite a few in this draft who make sense at that spot, including a bunch of high school arms.

 

I was hoping the Brewers could be awful enough in 2016 to land Hunter Greene but no such "luck"

[CheezWizHed]

I was hoping the Brewers could be awful enough in 2016 to land Hunter Greene but no such "luck"

 

Its a long way between now and the draft. Including a whole BB season to play for HS and College. Stranger things have happened.

[colbyjack]

tbbrewers, sorry for missing your question before. Wil Crowe is now roughly 2 full years removed from injury and looked really good both over the summer and this fall for South Carolina. The velo is back up, peaking at 93-95, and his command looked really good in five starts this past summer. He's a good name to bring up, a player that could have some helium in the spring if he picks up where he left off before injury.

 

Agree with CheezWiz, anything can and usually does happen between now and next June, although I agree with the premise that it's unlikely the Brewers have a chance to take him. And if they do, it's going to come with a very heavy price tag considering he's the top ranked HS player in the nation right now, not to mention an overall good kid with a very good head on his shoulders.

[CheezWizHed]

My comments were a bit of "broad brush", but both Perez and Groome fell much farther than initially thought. Of course, generally bad things must happen for that to occur.

[brewers888]

I think you can pretty much eliminate the high school players with the new scouting director running things. From what I can tell Stearns believes in using advanced stats exclusively when determining who to pick and as such gave the scouting director job to a computer guy who isn't known for his scouting acumen.

 

Montgomery was a big time scout who picked a lot of high school guys when he was in Arizona. Stearns has a moneyball philosophy and its why we picked almost exclusively college guys in the first few rounds of last years draft and I expect that trend to continue with the new scouting director.

 

I know that Montgomery got promoted but I really think we needed his scouting acumen more as our scouting director. I could be wrong but I believe that under Stearns we will pick almost all college players in the first ten rounds; figure the ratio to be 70/30 or even 80/20 for college talent with the majority of the players to be extremely polished with lower ceilings as well as lower floors.

[reillymcshane]

I think you can pretty much eliminate the high school players with the new scouting director running things. From what I can tell Stearns believes in using advanced stats exclusively when determining who to pick and as such gave the scouting director job to a computer guy who isn't known for his scouting acumen.

 

Montgomery was a big time scout who picked a lot of high school guys when he was in Arizona. Stearns has a moneyball philosophy and its why we picked almost exclusively college guys in the first few rounds of last years draft and I expect that trend to continue with the new scouting director.

 

I know that Montgomery got promoted but I really think we needed his scouting acumen more as our scouting director. I could be wrong but I believe that under Stearns we will pick almost all college players in the first ten rounds; figure the ratio to be 70/30 or even 80/20 for college talent with the majority of the players to be extremely polished with lower ceilings as well as lower floors.

Actually, the Brewers originally had two high schoolers in their top three picks. One, Perez, had an issue with PEDs, and was thus eliminated. But the team absolutely loved him.

 

A second, Groome, had character issues that drove him off of many teams' radars, including Milwaukee.

 

The third guy they liked was Ray - who they ended up with.

[colbyjack]

I think it's too early to say the Brewers under Stearns are going to draft more heavily towards college players (although as I've noted before I do think a college pitchers is most likely to be their pick at this point in time). Blake Rutherford was also on their radar for the pick at #5 this past year. And the selections of Mario Feliciano, Payton Henry, Francisco Thomas and Chad McClanahan were all pretty aggressive prep drafts even if they did load up on a bunch of college arms in rounds 3-10.

[CheezWizHed]

Mario Feliciano, Payton Henry, Francisco Thomas and Chad McClanahan were all pretty aggressive prep drafts even if they did load up on a bunch of college arms in rounds 3-10.

 

I would guess that we will see more of the same. In order to maximize their signing allotments they:

1) Drafted cost controlled players in the top 10. This means that some of these guys are senior college players that have little choice. I don't think that this means that the top 3 will ALWAYS be college guys, but there will be some tendency to be more college heavy (especially #4-10).

 

2) That allows us to go after some guys that slipped and sign them overslot. Those guys will almost always be HS players.

 

I don't think that means we will never draft HS players high (especially in the top 3), but certainly the top 10 will be college heavy. Neither does that mean that the ceilings of the top guys will be lowered. Certainly the later top 10 draft picks will be ceiling limited, but that mainly to grab a HS guy at a higher ceiling in a lower slot. Thus its a trade-off to get a better overall draft.

[Eye Black]

Baseball America's Top 100 High School Prospects compiled by Hudson Belinsky.

[clancyphile]

Baseball America's Top 100 High School Prospects compiled by Hudson Belinsky.

 

LHP Seth Corry is intriguing. Should be somewhere in the second round, but if he slips to the third or fourth he might be the guy you'd want to draft and make a run for.

[colbyjack]

We release our top 250 overall prospect list for next year's draft earlier this week:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=13355

 

We also released the top 100 college list, top 100s for 2018 and 2019 as well as a top 100 JUCO list (links to those features can be found in the one linked above). They are protected content (the top 10 are shown for free), but please let me know if you have any questions.