The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[MrTPlush]

We are pretty much locked into the #9 spot. The only way we can possibly move is if we either:

 

A) Go 3-0 and the Rockies or Angels go 0-3.

 

Or

 

B) Go 0-3 and the Phillies or Padres go 3-0.

[Greenleaf1]

If we go 2-1 and the Angels go 0-3 we'll have a better record than them too.

 

Agreed though, essentially if we lose 1 game this weekend we're very likely to be #9.

[And That]

#9 overall picks of the past decade:

 

2016: Matt Manning, RHP

2015: Ian Happ, OF (also, the Cubs drafted at #9 overall a year and 4 months ago - think about that for a minute)

2014: Jeff Hoffman, RHP

2013: Austin Meadows, CF

2012: Andrew Heaney, LHP

2011: Javier Baez, SS

2010: Karston Whitson, RHP

2009: Jacob Turner, RHP

2008: Aarow Crow, RHP

2007: Jarrod Parker, RHP (taken one pick ahead of Madison Bumgarner - whoops)

[trwi7]

Thanks to the results of various games tonight, the Brewers will be picking either 8th or 9th. The only chance the Brewers have of picking 8th is if the Phillies win their final 2 gamed and the Brewers lose their final 2 games.

[And That]

The Phillies lost today. Brewers have the 9th pick in next year's draft.

[logan82]

Hooray we are winners.

[brewmann04]

That is good glad we got under the 10 spot and now looking forward to seeing the ranking for the top 10 pucks next year

[LouisEly]

#9 overall picks of the past decade:

 

2016: Matt Manning, RHP

2015: Ian Happ, OF (also, the Cubs drafted at #9 overall a year and 4 months ago - think about that for a minute)

2014: Jeff Hoffman, RHP

2013: Austin Meadows, CF

2012: Andrew Heaney, LHP

2011: Javier Baez, SS

2010: Karston Whitson, RHP

2009: Jacob Turner, RHP

2008: Aarow Crow, RHP

2007: Jarrod Parker, RHP (taken one pick ahead of Madison Bumgarner - whoops)

Not a solid track record there. Heaney is talented but not TOR quality, and he's hurt. Whitson is a cautionary tale of why you don't pass up the money as a Top 10 pick. Turner has never been able to put it together; heck, he's almost completely fallen apart the last two years. Crow is an OK reliever, and has been hurt the last two years. Parker was looking like a #2 (but with pretty low K numbers), but has been completely derailed by multiple TJ surgeries. Hoffman might amount to something but it's too early to tell, and he's a big injury risk too. I'm not as high on Meadows as others; I think he's a bit overrated.

 

Since 2000 only one player drafted at #9 overall has a career bWAR > 10 - John Danks. Four never made the majors, and an additional two have a negative career bWAR.

 

The last - and only other time - the Brewers drafted #9 overall was one of arguably the five best #9 picks of all-time...

 

... Geoff Jenkins.

 

The best #9 pick of all-time? Kevin Appier, career bWAR of 54.9. Barry Zito is a distant 2nd, career bWAR of 32.6.

[Austin Tatious]

I don't know about you guys but I really enjoy mock drafts. This one explains itself well. He's using the mock as a way to discuss prospects. The writer knows it's absurd this early and particularly to match to a team.

 

I've been following Ellis' work for awhile and it is very enjoyable for draft junkies.

 

I excerpted his Brewer pick and JJ Schwarz, a top catching prospect. Ellis didn't mention it but I believe we drafted Beck out of high school, but at a spot where we knew he wouldn't sign. To me, Beck or Schwarz would be very interesting.

 

 

 

 

9. Milwaukee Brewers: Tristan Beck, RHP, Stanford

 

The Brewers tend to take sliding talent and the best player on the board to me is Beck. They have not grabbed a pitcher with any of their high picks so far so this could be very off base. Yet we have seen them take college arms at the end of round one. Beck is hard to peg as we have just one season of college data. He was a possible first rounder out of high school, but told teams he would not sign. As a sophomore at a top institution he has so much volatility because he has so much leverage. At this point to me at least, there is a bit of a drop off in talent so Beck would be too good to pass on.

10. Los Angeles Angels: JJ Schwarz, C, Florida

 

A good test of a person who writes about the draft right now is to see how high they are on Schwarz. There has been significant souring with most people I talk to on Schwarz. I have heard people question the bat and his position. As a freshman he got a lot of talk but the struggles as a sophomore have caused significant cooling. He is a player who needs to really step up this year or he could be in for a slide. My logic here is the last two years the Angels have drafted a college catcher with their top pick. I am sorry if you wanted more insight than that. It's not the best college hitter crop which is a pretty common refrain anymore for the draft. Schwarz is arguably the biggest name at this point and the bat who has shown the most. The rest of the other players who had some hype heading into last year also kind of fizzled out. So it's a group where a player could really leap out with a strong performance.

 

 

EDIT. I forgot the link initially.

 

Ridiculously Early 2017 Mock Draft

 

http://www.scout.com/mlb/indians/story/1713215-ridiculously-early-2017-mock-draft

[brewcrewdue80]

Inside of the top 10, As good as I can hope for.

Jeff Hoffman was something like a top 3 pick until injury created a drop to 9. Kyle Lewis, Groome, Rutherford were available still at 9. in '15 my two favorites Whitley and Allard were still available. '14 Hoffman, Conforto, and Trea Turner were available.

 

The opportunity to get someone we likely believe won't be there at #4 or 5 much less 9 is there. The pick is protected Look forward to draft day!

[Austin Tatious]

BCD 80, I agree completely.

 

I'd like to see them take the best player available and not try to outsmart the system. If Tristan Beck is there, you have to like the profile and what this franchise needs. We aren't other ball clubs. We can't go get a TOR starter in a spending spree. If someone else passes on a top flight pitcher, that's their problem. Sure, saving money allows for an overslot guy or two later. It is nice to get a Chad Mcclanahan in the 11th round who profiles as a high upside first baseman batting lefty at 6'5. But what this organization needs even more is multiple high end pitchers.

 

Everybody has their price. If Beck is interested in being drafted, then step up, draft, and pay him. Note that Garrett and Groome both signed. When you're drafting as high as ninth, if you give a good offer, you will get your man. It's rational for the player. Getting picked ninth is a nice payday and with the time value of money, they will take it especially because of the risk of injury etc.

 

The fear of Fernandez not signing so you took Taylor Jungmann is buckling to posturing. Don't do that. Take your guy and pay him. We don't need a ton of overslot later picks at this point in time. We've got depth already. We need elites. There may be another situation that dictates the underslot strategy, but that time is not anytime soon in Milwaukee.

[TheCrew07]

When did going under slot become synonymous with "lower ceiling"? The teams that have had success utilizing that strategy didn't have the consensus top player on the board as their #1, or at least thought the drop off to their guy was minimal. For example I fail to see how Houston settled for lesser talent getting a career .829 OPS out of a 21 year old SS to this point? Carlos Correa was an awesome pick, full slot value or not, and for that matter any team would be crazy to pay more than they have to for any player, that's just bad business. Correa has accumulated more WAR than the rest of the top 10 picks in the 2012 draft to this point.

 

If this talk is stemming from the Brewers picking Medeiros at 12 and signing him for slightly under slot value I would argue that Kodi wasn't worthy of being picked in that slot regardless and said so at the time, but he nailed his workout and the team thought they were getting a front line starter for significant cost savings.

 

The gulf between Correa and Medeiros was in the eye of the beholder on draft day, the Brewers just aren't good at identifying top of the rotation talent. I don't really believe the Brewers picked Medeiros solely because he could be had for cheap in that slot, to me that's stretching the truth of what happened.

 

My concern has more to do with the workout warrior justification of a draft pick, it seems that every time the Brewers have gone that route the draft pick has blown up on them... Frederickson, Walla, and Medeiros stand out to me in that regard and I will continue to cringe every time a work out is mentioned as the primary justification for any pick.

 

Just because the Brewers botched the situation with Medeiros doesn't mean the strategy isn't a sound team building concept, in truth it's actually a very good way to add more high ceiling talent to a system than a team would otherwise be able to. To me it's basically taking the HS kid over the 4yr player, betting on the HS kid to reach his ceiling as he matures, but that doesn't mean the HS player has a lower ceiling as a player.

[narwhalattack]

When did going under slot become synonymous with "lower ceiling"? The teams that have had success utilizing that strategy didn't have the consensus top player on the board as their #1, or at least thought the drop off to their guy was minimal. For example I fail to see how Houston settled for lesser talent getting a career .829 OPS out of a 21 year old SS to this point? Carlos Correa was an awesome pick, full slot value or not, and for that matter any team would be crazy to pay more than they have to for any player, that's just bad business. Correa has accumulated more WAR than the rest of the top 10 picks in the 2012 draft to this point.

 

If this talk is stemming from the Brewers picking Medeiros at 12 and signing him for slightly under slot value I would argue that Kodi wasn't worthy of being picked in that slot regardless and said so at the time, but he nailed his workout and the team thought they were getting a front line starter for significant cost savings.

 

The gulf between Correa and Medeiros was in the eye of the beholder on draft day, the Brewers just aren't good at identifying top of the rotation talent. I don't really believe the Brewers picked Medeiros solely because he could be had for cheap in that slot, to me that's stretching the truth of what happened.

 

My concern has more to do with the workout warrior justification of a draft pick, it seems that every time the Brewers have gone that route the draft pick has blown up on them... Frederickson, Walla, and Medeiros stand out to me in that regard and I will continue to cringe every time a work out is mentioned as the primary justification for any pick.

 

Just because the Brewers botched the situation with Medeiros doesn't mean the strategy isn't a sound team building concept, in truth it's actually a very good way to add more high ceiling talent to a system than a team would otherwise be able to. To me it's basically taking the HS kid over the 4yr player, betting on the HS kid to reach his ceiling as he matures, but that doesn't mean the HS player has a lower ceiling as a player.

 

I think he's referring to how they picked Corey Ray. I know he's been very vocal about how he didn't like the pick.

[TheCrew07]

You're probably correct Narwhal, I had somehow forgotten those rants, but I think the same is true of Ray, the Brewers honestly thought he was the best player available at that slot. I certainly didn't view Ray as a star on draft day, I think he'll be average to above average if he hits well, but there's absolutely nothing wrong with him as a player.

 

Of course I wanted pitching so I was disappointed, but then again I've been disappointed even when I've gotten pitching in the first because the target wasn't what I've hoped for.

 

I agree wholeheartedly that the Brewers need more impact potential, especially on the pitching front, but I disagree that you won't be able to get impact pitching going underslot. The Brewers simply need to do a better job identifying impact pitching talent, they've gotten much better at finding those middle ground inning eater types, but every pitcher at the top of our heap has the same set of issues with consistently finding the strike zone. The core issue is probably the lack of consensus in what are good pitching mechanics, or believing in things like "a natural arm slot" when kids simply mimic what they see to choose their arm slot at a young age.

 

I don't think there are any easy answers, and I've admittedly long chastised the Brewers for their lack of a progressive approach when it comes to development of both hitters and pitchers. There isn't much originality from the organization, just a bunch of borrowed ideas that others have already proven concept for, the end result of which is that the Brewers are always a couple of years behind the curve.

[Austin Tatious]

When did going under slot become synonymous with "lower ceiling"? The teams that have had success utilizing that strategy didn't have the consensus top player on the board as their #1, or at least thought the drop off to their guy was minimal. For example I fail to see how Houston settled for lesser talent getting a career .829 OPS out of a 21 year old SS to this point? Carlos Correa was an awesome pick, full slot value or not, and for that matter any team would be crazy to pay more than they have to for any player, that's just bad business. Correa has accumulated more WAR than the rest of the top 10 picks in the 2012 draft to this point.

 

If this talk is stemming from the Brewers picking Medeiros at 12 and signing him for slightly under slot value I would argue that Kodi wasn't worthy of being picked in that slot regardless and said so at the time, but he nailed his workout and the team thought they were getting a front line starter for significant cost savings.

 

The gulf between Correa and Medeiros was in the eye of the beholder on draft day, the Brewers just aren't good at identifying top of the rotation talent. I don't really believe the Brewers picked Medeiros solely because he could be had for cheap in that slot, to me that's stretching the truth of what happened.

 

My concern has more to do with the workout warrior justification of a draft pick, it seems that every time the Brewers have gone that route the draft pick has blown up on them... Frederickson, Walla, and Medeiros stand out to me in that regard and I will continue to cringe every time a work out is mentioned as the primary justification for any pick.

 

Just because the Brewers botched the situation with Medeiros doesn't mean the strategy isn't a sound team building concept, in truth it's actually a very good way to add more high ceiling talent to a system than a team would otherwise be able to. To me it's basically taking the HS kid over the 4yr player, betting on the HS kid to reach his ceiling as he matures, but that doesn't mean the HS player has a lower ceiling as a player.

 

The Brewers have certainly done a poor job at identifying talent at the top of the draft. However, passing on a better talent to save money for later picks is not what is needed at this time.

[Austin Tatious]

You're probably correct Narwhal, I had somehow forgotten those rants, but I think the same is true of Ray, the Brewers honestly thought he was the best player available at that slot. I certainly didn't view Ray as a star on draft day, I think he'll be average to above average if he hits well, but there's absolutely nothing wrong with him as a player.

 

Of course I wanted pitching so I was disappointed, but then again I've been disappointed even when I've gotten pitching in the first because the target wasn't what I've hoped for.

 

I agree wholeheartedly that the Brewers need more impact potential, especially on the pitching front, but I disagree that you won't be able to get impact pitching going underslot. The Brewers simply need to do a better job identifying impact pitching talent, they've gotten much better at finding those middle ground inning eater types, but every pitcher at the top of our heap has the same set of issues with consistently finding the strike zone. The core issue is probably the lack of consensus in what are good pitching mechanics, or believing in things like "a natural arm slot" when kids simply mimic what they see to choose their arm slot at a young age.

 

I don't think there are any easy answers, and I've admittedly long chastised the Brewers for their lack of a progressive approach when it comes to development of both hitters and pitchers. There isn't much originality from the organization, just a bunch of borrowed ideas that others have already proven concept for, the end result of which is that the Brewers are always a couple of years behind the curve.

 

This discussion can be had without any reference to Corey Ray. I never mentioned his name. Ray hit almost .250 in the cluster mess of BC right out of college, so that's promising. I'm rooting for Ray, as I do all Brewer players and prospects. He comes across as a great kid.

[logan82]

When did going under slot become synonymous with "lower ceiling"? The teams that have had success utilizing that strategy didn't have the consensus top player on the board as their #1, or at least thought the drop off to their guy was minimal. For example I fail to see how Houston settled for lesser talent getting a career .829 OPS out of a 21 year old SS to this point? Carlos Correa was an awesome pick, full slot value or not, and for that matter any team would be crazy to pay more than they have to for any player, that's just bad business. Correa has accumulated more WAR than the rest of the top 10 picks in the 2012 draft to this point.

 

If this talk is stemming from the Brewers picking Medeiros at 12 and signing him for slightly under slot value I would argue that Kodi wasn't worthy of being picked in that slot regardless and said so at the time, but he nailed his workout and the team thought they were getting a front line starter for significant cost savings.

 

The gulf between Correa and Medeiros was in the eye of the beholder on draft day, the Brewers just aren't good at identifying top of the rotation talent. I don't really believe the Brewers picked Medeiros solely because he could be had for cheap in that slot, to me that's stretching the truth of what happened.

 

My concern has more to do with the workout warrior justification of a draft pick, it seems that every time the Brewers have gone that route the draft pick has blown up on them... Frederickson, Walla, and Medeiros stand out to me in that regard and I will continue to cringe every time a work out is mentioned as the primary justification for any pick.

 

Just because the Brewers botched the situation with Medeiros doesn't mean the strategy isn't a sound team building concept, in truth it's actually a very good way to add more high ceiling talent to a system than a team would otherwise be able to. To me it's basically taking the HS kid over the 4yr player, betting on the HS kid to reach his ceiling as he matures, but that doesn't mean the HS player has a lower ceiling as a player.

 

The Brewers have certainly done a poor job at identifying talent at the top of the draft. However, passing on a better talent to save money for later picks is not what is needed at this time.

That is not necessarily what they did though.

[Austin Tatious]

No argument here. I don't really want to debate minutiae that no one can prove beyond circumstantial evidence. However, if they pass on a potential TOR who goes overslot later at a lower pick, and Milwaukee goes underslot, that would disappoint me. I'd have to double check, but I believe Miami and Boston went overslot on Garrett and Groome. They ultimately did sign, though. I know Miami and Boston are ecstatic that they got those guys as I've checked media reports in both locations and elsewhere. Miami thinks they got another Cliff Lee. The Bosox think they are playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. Three recent titles, a number of high end young major leaguers, and a few high end prospects. The Bosox got Jason Groome at 12. The Brewers at 12 took Kodi Medeiros and Taylor Jungmann.

 

Jose Fernandez supposedly had Scott Boras say he wanted to be in Florida. If you come across that situation at the ninth pick this year, I would not run from it. Fernandez was obviously a phenomenal talent. With the time value of money and the risk he'd be taking, it would be rational to take a Milwaukee offer even if they have to go overslot, if you're getting a TOR talent. Milwaukee ended up with Jungmann. Enough said.

 

But, yes, I agree that the most important thing is having scouts who can identify the right talent.

 

As an example, the Brewers took Medeiros in 2014. They saved some money and signed Gatewood and Harrison (away from a Neb football scholly). But, even under that strategy, they could have taken Sheffield who was taken later and is doing much better. At this point, we are just resorting to blind hope that Medeiros can become enlightened with his command. I'd call it a long shot. Meanwhile, Sheffield is on a solid trajectory.

[MrTPlush]

I don't understand what you are getting at Austin in your last paragraph. We sign Medeiros(#35 ranked) underslot to get Harrison(#21) and Gatewood(#22). Of course we could have taken Sheffield(#49), but unfortunately we didn't have a crystal ball back then. Sometimes it comes down to luck which guy you pick. At the end of the day you are scouting incredibly raw athletes.

 

Why haven't we developed much pitching? Bad luck? Scouting? Development? Well probably a mixture of all three. I don't think we have been that bad outside of not developing TOR talent. Which is easier said than done for any team.

[Austin Tatious]

In my last paragraph, I was conceding and acknowledging that player identification is the biggest issue, even if you want to play the lower slot value game.

 

In the run up to the 2014 draft, I recall media reports about how the Brewers were enamored with Medeiros as an athlete. They worked him out and brought him up. He had some Brewer hype even before the pick was made. It's the scouts' and director's jobs to get it right. And they report to the GM at the top of the org chart. Medeiros had a ton of helium and was taken early. You can't give any of them a pass when you see a kid like Sheffield thriving.

 

The Brewers had an injury problem with Mark Rogers but a number of others before that, to wit Mike Jones, Nick Neugebauer, you could go on and on. They hit on Jake Odorizzi out of high school, but then went college arms like Jungmann, Bradley, Heckathorn, Arnett. Back to high school with Medeiros. College or high school, whatever tools the Brewers were looking at, they kept consistently whiffing. It's not about having a crystal ball. It's about scouting, and looking at the right attributes that translate.

 

And you see a number of posts here arguing that so-and-so was taken third or fifth, so he was the third or fifth ranked player. That's a complete fallacy. Players are picked on a combination of how good they are, and the team's bonus pool strategy. Some teams game the system in attempt to get some overslot guys later in the draft as the Brewers have done in the cases of Harrison, McClanahan, Gatewood and others. On the other hand, the year the Brewers took Mitch Haniger out of college, they passed on Joey Gallo out of high school who was more expensive. So, no, it's not true that any given player was considered the best prospect at a slot. He was considered the best prospect for the team within their bonus pool strategy.

 

Many of these arguments for drafting were made in real time on this site, so it's not a matter of playing hindsight or talking about a crystal ball. Judgements and strategies are made by the FO and asking questions about the strategies is more than fair.

[adambr2]

I do agree that if you're going to reach for a kid like Medeiros at #12 as part of a bonus pool strategy, you had better be right about him. So far, the Brewers scouts have been very wrong about him.

 

Maybe a career out of the pen can still be salvaged, but when your walk rates are so bad that you can't even find success in Brevard County, that's not a good sign.

[colbyjack]

I said it on the day of the draft, Kodi Medeiros was not a reach. If you saw him before the draft and the stuff he threw you would have agreed. He threw low/mid-90s and had one of the most wicked sliders I've ever seen. It was such a nasty pitch I saw him practically have to ditch it in one game because the catcher he was throwing to (who had never caught him before) had no idea how to catch the pitch. And, he threw a pretty good changeup (and he's a good hitter to boot). He made his money the summer before the draft and then in the Hawaiian state baseball playoffs, not at the Brewers pre-draft workout (although I agree enough players have cemented their pick by the Brewers in the past at these events). If the Brewers hadn't taken him at #12 I know for a fact that he wouldn't have slid past the Royals a few picks later.

 

The arm slot is not an issue. None at all, and if you don't like it that's a personal preference. He's athletic enough to get away with it and there are plenty of other pitchers that use it with effectiveness, injury-free as well. Chris Sale gets mentioned a lot, but then there's two of the nastiest lefthanders in the playoffs, Madison Bumgarner and Andrew Miller, who also have similar lower, slinging deliveries.

 

I also said on the day of the draft that I can't blame the Brewers for who they took due to the upside involved. There was risk involved with Medeiros, Gatewood and Harrison, but all three of those guys were being talked about as potential mid first-rounders, so to land all three was pretty impressive. If none of them turns out, that really, really stinks, but only in present-tense and IMO the scouting dep't. should not be judged negatively in hindsight for those selections because that was one heck of a haul the day of the draft.

 

Sorry to soap box it, but Medeiros is such a fascinating arm and I really hopes he turns it around as he's definitely one of the most unique amateur talents I have seen in person, not to mention a good kid from a really good family.

[adambr2]

I am certainly still rooting for Medeiros as well, and I have probably been overly harsh on him. I was just really disappointed in his High A season this year. I thought he was going to be a breakout player in the system.

[Noche]

It's pretty absurd revisionist history to say Medeiros was some huge reach. And it is equally absurd to write him off after his age 20 season. Development is never linear and Kodi is still a tremendous prospect with an impact quality arm. Give him time.

[Austin Tatious]

I said it on the day of the draft, Kodi Medeiros was not a reach. If you saw him before the draft and the stuff he threw you would have agreed. He threw low/mid-90s and had one of the most wicked sliders I've ever seen. It was such a nasty pitch I saw him practically have to ditch it in one game because the catcher he was throwing to (who had never caught him before) had no idea how to catch the pitch. And, he threw a pretty good changeup (and he's a good hitter to boot). He made his money the summer before the draft and then in the Hawaiian state baseball playoffs, not at the Brewers pre-draft workout (although I agree enough players have cemented their pick by the Brewers in the past at these events). If the Brewers hadn't taken him at #12 I know for a fact that he wouldn't have slid past the Royals a few picks later.

 

The arm slot is not an issue. None at all, and if you don't like it that's a personal preference. He's athletic enough to get away with it and there are plenty of other pitchers that use it with effectiveness, injury-free as well. Chris Sale gets mentioned a lot, but then there's two of the nastiest lefthanders in the playoffs, Madison Bumgarner and Andrew Miller, who also have similar lower, slinging deliveries.

 

I also said on the day of the draft that I can't blame the Brewers for who they took due to the upside involved. There was risk involved with Medeiros, Gatewood and Harrison, but all three of those guys were being talked about as potential mid first-rounders, so to land all three was pretty impressive. If none of them turns out, that really, really stinks, but only in present-tense and IMO the scouting dep't. should not be judged negatively in hindsight for those selections because that was one heck of a haul the day of the draft.

 

Sorry to soap box it, but Medeiros is such a fascinating arm and I really hopes he turns it around as he's definitely one of the most unique amateur talents I have seen in person, not to mention a good kid from a really good family.

 

Excellent post. I always appreciate your perspective.