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Trade value: Junior Guerra


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Guerra's value has nothing to do with salary. Contending teams don't care what they have to pay a guy for a month. Issue is track record. Very doubtful someone gives up a good prospect for the unknown. You see the same thing with relievers. It's why the Cards traded for a mediocre Bronson last year for example. Better off signing Guerra cheap for another year. Can always flip him next year if he's still effective.
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My head just exploded. I just saw someone post on another Brewer fan site that Guerra's trade value would have to fetch something like Hader (a top 50 prospect), Isan Diaz (extreme upside player at premier position), and Michael Reed (potential MLB ready 4th outfielder at least). Carry on with your day.

 

That is why we are here and not over there. ;)

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  • 3 weeks later...
With tonight's performance, Guerra has to be considered as a trade candidate. At age 31 he won't have this kind of stuff come time when the Brewers compete again. And what starting pitching is going for these days plus the control over his years, you have a very expensive piece. Package him with Lucroy and a reliever and you could get the deal that gets the Crew to the WS.
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Guerra has drawn interest. It all depends how he is being valued right now. I wouldn't trade him for anything less than a Top 100 prospect or the equivalent in younger high upside talent. I like the way he pitches and he may be a solid mid-rotation guy. The start he just had in front of scouts may just get us quite an offer.
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Unless something great is coming back, I don't see why you'd trade him. He's certainly not a throw in to get someone to sweeten the pot. From what I've seen, he has pretty good stuff....I don't get the smoke and mirrors type vibe that i did from Fiers. A cheap and controllable guy like this is exactly what the Brewers should be looking for at this stage. Probably a mid rotation guy, but definitely some upside.
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Guerra was at 95 mph on pitch #104ish. It's going to take a lot to get him.

 

He was, and he also had the batters guessing the whole night. They were reaching for pitches, then taking called strikes, because they had no idea what was coming - that's why they started swinging at the first pitch so much.

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My question is, if he is for real, would he get a greater haul next deadline or being that he's getting older, would it not matter?
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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My question is, if he is for real, would he get a greater haul next deadline or being that he's getting older, would it not matter?

 

Since none of us know what the offers have been, (if any), we really can't answer that, but I would guess Guerra's value is plenty high right now. If teams lined up to fight over Andrew Cashner, and were disappointed when Rich Hill did what he always does, and hit the DL - there is absolutely no reason for teams not to make very real offers to get Junior Guerra.

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Heyman on Twitter said price for Guerra higher than Cashner, and should be.

 

Absolutely and it shouldn't be close. Cashner's a rental who hasn't been performing anywhere near as well. Guerra could be an inexpensive fixture in a rotation for 3-4 years even if he regresses some. An argument could be made Guerra is worth as much or more than Lucroy as a trade chip. A 31 year old controllable pre-arby quality starting pitcher vs. a year and two months of a 30 year old catcher? Only risk is that he's a "flash in the pan" who won't be able to sustain it, but his stuff says otherwise as does what he's done to get to this point. Brewers don't "have" to deal him now either unlike with Lucroy who'd still have value this winter and next July but less than now in all probability.

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His pitch location was incredible yesterday and that is why he had success. That being said I think he gives up too much hard contact and is only a two pitch pitcher which worries me. How long can he succeed throwing just two pitches as a starter?
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Obviously if the right deal comes along Guerra gets traded. But if I'm another team I'd be looking at him as a flash-in-the-pan and wouldn't be willing to give that much up for him. There just isn't that much of an MLB history there. Like with Jeffress, Guerra might be a better "hold" candidate until he establishes more of a track record.
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I don't get how you can say he is a two pitch pitcher when he can throw his slider for a strike in any count right now. Going forward no clue what to expect from him, there is no past history of a similar story to Guerra. I don't even know how teams can define his value right now.
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I've seen 2-pitch pitcher tossed around a bit with him but if they're two really good pitches and you can mix in the 2-seem and curveball you elevate those pitches because no one is looking for them. I wish this guy was 25 and figured it out and we had him for another 5 years.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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His pitch location was incredible yesterday and that is why he had success. That being said I think he gives up too much hard contact and is only a two pitch pitcher which worries me. How long can he succeed throwing just two pitches as a starter?
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