Trade value: Junior Guerra

[MrTPlush]

Think the Brewers should stick with him unless someone gives up a nice prospect for him. I would pass on lower level lottery tickets if that is what it comes too. At that point we might as keep him and see if he can string together a full season worth of starts and get something nice next July.

[adambr2]

Think the Brewers should stick with him unless someone gives up a nice prospect for him. I would pass on lower level lottery tickets if that is what it comes too. At that point we might as keep him and see if he can string together a full season worth of starts and get something nice next July.

 

I agree, there's no real motivation to trade Guerra. We've restocked with enough low level lottery tickets for now and Guerra is worth more than that to us.

 

Just keep him. If he gets dealt as part of a needed throw in on a bigger deal like Fiers last year, fine. Otherwise, he's either worth a lot more at this time next year, or maybe even part of our contending rotation in 2-3 years. Or he flops back down to earth and we've lost pretty much nothing by holding him anyway.

[brewcrewdue80]

How does Guerra have much of any value when he's never gone beyond 150Innings in his Career? He's at approximately 93IP as of today. He'll have what? 4 more Starts prior to the Deadline with #5 about the day of? We'll give him 25 more innings Making him at 118IP and just 30IP left before you're in to the unknown on his arm. Or approximately 5 Games Started. August is covered, September, not so much. I get it, he's older and the belief would be he'd be able to continue pitching in to the 180s for IP. But how is his performance going to be post 140IP?

 

Now, he stays with Milwaukee pitches through the season or say up to 170IP. And then you trade for him, should he continue decently, and now having proven he can last 170IP without dead arm seeping in. That's when he'll have trade value. This offseason, not this trade deadline. And only if he produces productively post 140IP

[MrTPlush]

Yah I actually don't think he is even a trade possibility period. What contender wants a guy who has not pitched 100 innings since 2013 and has only done it twice in his career overall? He hasn't posted two 100 inning years consecutively ever. If he averaged 6 1/3 the rest of the year he would clear 200 innings and that is before a contender would need him for the postseason.

 

If I was a contender I wouldn't touch Guerra.

[jerichoholicninja]

Yah I actually don't think he is even a trade possibility period. What contender wants a guy who has not pitched 100 innings since 2013 and has only done it twice in his career overall? He hasn't posted two 100 inning years consecutively ever. If he averaged 6 1/3 the rest of the year he would clear 200 innings and that is before a contender would need him for the postseason.

 

If I was a contender I wouldn't touch Guerra.

 

And yet Bud Norris turned a couple good starts into a trade to a contender. I understand he's a "veteran" and has "experience" but he pitched like crap for a few years but now he's worth it? I'll buy the innings and lack of track record but you can't tell me if you're the Dodgers you'd rather have Norris in your rotation than Guerra right now.

[MrTPlush]

Yah I actually don't think he is even a trade possibility period. What contender wants a guy who has not pitched 100 innings since 2013 and has only done it twice in his career overall? He hasn't posted two 100 inning years consecutively ever. If he averaged 6 1/3 the rest of the year he would clear 200 innings and that is before a contender would need him for the postseason.

 

If I was a contender I wouldn't touch Guerra.

 

And yet Bud Norris turned a couple good starts into a trade to a contender. I understand he's a "veteran" and has "experience" but he pitched like crap for a few years but now he's worth it? I'll buy the innings and lack of track record but you can't tell me if you're the Dodgers you'd rather have Norris in your rotation than Guerra right now.

 

Well Bud Norris changed something and it lead to his recent success. Something like not throwing his change up and instead using a splitter? Regardless I think scouts were big believers in that change turning into sustainable success.

 

Personally I will take Bud Norris over Junior Guerra. Not that I really like either of them all that much. At least Norris has past success at the MLB level and has pitched 175 innings multiple times throughout his career. If I am making a trade for this year I would take Norris as he is the safer bet. Guerra just has too many question marks for me if I was a contender.

[homer]

Checked out his stats and he's getting a bit lucky in regards to BABIP but for the most part his results are not smoke and mirrors. Like most on here I'd hang on to him through the season.

[And That]

To use a very loose analogy, trading Guerra now would be like selling your Facebook stock in October of 2013. It had performed crappily for quite awhile, but had recently seen an uptick at long last. Getting out then meant a nice profit, assuming you had bought in during the past 6-12 months. And who knew where it was going to go after that?

 

Well, now you'd probably feel like an idiot for selling in 10/13.

 

Then again, perhaps everything could have gone south, you would have been saddled with a steep loss, and probably felt like an idiot for not selling in 10/13.

 

Facebook Junior Guerra is not, but you get my point.

[superfly]

To use a very loose analogy, trading Guerra now would be like selling your Facebook stock in October of 2013. It had performed crappily for quite awhile, but had recently seen an uptick at long last. Getting out then meant a nice profit, assuming you had bought in during the past 6-12 months. And who knew where it was going to go after that?

 

Well, now you'd probably feel like an idiot for selling in 10/13.

 

Then again, perhaps everything could have gone south, you would have been saddled with a steep loss, and probably felt like an idiot for not selling in 10/13.

 

Facebook Junior Guerra is not, but you get my point.

 

Either that or he is 2014-2015 Valeant Pharmaceuticals and we'll see continued growth or a total implosion of 90% of his value. I'd sell high here if there are any takers willing to give up somebody young with a semblance of potential.

[MrTPlush]

Selling high here is probably comparable to seeing a penny on the ground and picking it up. Might as well keep going and hope to find some paper money.

[And That]

Either that or he is 2014-2015 Valeant Pharmaceuticals and we'll see continued growth or a total implosion of 90% of his value. I'd sell high here if there are any takers willing to give up somebody young with a semblance of potential.

If he has very limited value already, losing 90% of very limited value won't matter, and whatever they could get for him right now more than likely doesn't move the needle, as you noted. So why give him up for something that likely won't matter, when his downside is in effect the same thing? The Brewers' best bet up upside with Guerra right now is to hold on to him, unless some club gives them an insane offer.

[Austin Tatious]

I like Junior Guerra but no one knows if he's just a wonder because he's going through other team's lineups the first time. It will be more telling to see how he does as teams see him again and again and have a better look and book on him. Thus, if I'm another team, I'd be wary of trading for him unless my scouts see something devastating in his stuff that transcends everything. His split finger pitch has been the buzz but I think we need to see if his performance lasts through the second or third time teams see him. If he keeps rolling into mid-season next year, then you may have a trade chip with value. Until then, let's keep him.

[pacopete4]

Dealing again today. Rookie of the year candidate?

[reillymcshane]

Dealing again today. Rookie of the year candidate?

Pitcher wise in the NL, he's a solid candidate. Right now, however, Maeda and Matz probably have the edge.

[reillymcshane]

Dealing again today. Rookie of the year candidate?

Pitcher wise in the NL, he's a solid candidate. Right now, however, Maeda and Matz probably have the edge.

One guy that's been amazing is St. Louis reliever Seung Hwan Oh. 41 games, 42 IP, 57K, 1.71 ERA, 0.90 WHIP. He's 33 years old, however - from Korea - so he's not exactly a raw rookie. But he qualifies.

[MrTPlush]

Dealing again today. Rookie of the year candidate?

 

For a vote? No chance to actually win.

[brewcrewdue80]

Dealing again today. Rookie of the year candidate?

 

I think it's Corey Seager's to lose. But maybe he gets some votes. Again, I think he won't pitch in September since he's quickly approaching his Career high in IP in a season. And if I were the Brewers, I wouldn't want him to pitch beyond what he's capable of and turn in to dead armed 6+ERA vs just sitting on season when he's under 3.5ERA and going in to offseason, teams wouldn't know how September/Playoff his arm is, but do know how 25Starts are.

[LouisEly]

Yah I actually don't think he is even a trade possibility period. What contender wants a guy who has not pitched 100 innings since 2013 and has only done it twice in his career overall? He hasn't posted two 100 inning years consecutively ever. If he averaged 6 1/3 the rest of the year he would clear 200 innings and that is before a contender would need him for the postseason.

 

If I was a contender I wouldn't touch Guerra.

You're telling me that a guy with league minimum salary - in a year when the Braves sent cash with Bud Norris, who is on a one-year $2.5M contract, to the Dodgers of all teams - is not someone that a contender would see any value in? The league minimum salary wouldn't mitigate any risk?

 

The innings issue is an issue with people age 26/27 and under. By age 27 a person is physically mature. C.J. Wilson threw 123 innings as a 22-year-old in 2003, was then sent to the bullpen after missing all of 2004 where he never pitched more than 73 innings until 2010 when he pitched 204 innings at age 29 for the Rangers. Threw 200+ innings for four years, then 175 in 2014, then got hurt about 130 innings into 2015, basically pitching over 1000 innings after jumping from a 73 inning season to a 204 inning season before getting hurt.

[Mr Southpaw]

I would want him if I had to play the Dodgers or the Nats!

[Austin Tatious]

Yah I actually don't think he is even a trade possibility period. What contender wants a guy who has not pitched 100 innings since 2013 and has only done it twice in his career overall? He hasn't posted two 100 inning years consecutively ever. If he averaged 6 1/3 the rest of the year he would clear 200 innings and that is before a contender would need him for the postseason.

 

If I was a contender I wouldn't touch Guerra.

You're telling me that a guy with league minimum salary - in a year when the Braves sent cash with Bud Norris, who is on a one-year $2.5M contract, to the Dodgers of all teams - is not someone that a contender would see any value in? The league minimum salary wouldn't mitigate any risk?

 

The innings issue is an issue with people age 26/27 and under. By age 27 a person is physically mature. C.J. Wilson threw 123 innings as a 22-year-old in 2003, was then sent to the bullpen after missing all of 2004 where he never pitched more than 73 innings until 2010 when he pitched 204 innings at age 29 for the Rangers. Threw 200+ innings for four years, then 175 in 2014, then got hurt about 130 innings into 2015, basically pitching over 1000 innings after jumping from a 73 inning season to a 204 inning season before getting hurt.

 

I think you make some very sound points. I would like to see him as lineups have had experience facing him, and make adjustments, to see how he fares. If he does well then, he may have real value.

[MrTPlush]

How do we know he won't just falter once his innings her high. Some pitchers just simply burn out towards the end of the season. He could very well burn out once the innings pile up as huge increases in innings can effect each player differently.

 

I doubt teams get all that interested in him. When you are in a pennant race you don't want some no name 31 year old rookie. You want a guy with a track record. I'm betting most teams would prefer Norris over Guerra. Guerra is doing what so many other pitchers do as dominate right when they come up. I called it before he even threw a pitch at the MLB level this year.

 

That being said the market is pretty weak this year so anything is possible. Guerra at best is a last resort for teams and someone they expect to acquire for pennies.

[JohnBriggs12]

Guerra's 31 but he doesn't have the tread on the tires of most guys 27-28 with about 800 pro innings total. It can also be argued he's still learning his craft. Could this really be a guy that can produce around a 3.00 ERA (or less) for the next several years? Nobody really knows, but with the cost of top quality starting pitching, the Brewers need to take what is a minimal risk and hold on to him rather than take what his perceived value might be after a dozen starts.

[MadScientist]

Guerra doesn't have the track history, but he is cheap, controllable, and pitching really well right now. If it weren't for his age, there's no way he'd be available. Given the combination, the question is what sort of team would be likely to make a push for him. Best bet would be for a team just chasing the second wild card, needs pitching, and doesn't want to add a lot of payroll.

 

The team that comes to mind is Miami. Not sure if they are actually in the market or what they have to offer.

[MilwaukeesBest]

My head just exploded. I just saw someone post on another Brewer fan site that Guerra's trade value would have to fetch something like Hader (a top 50 prospect), Isan Diaz (extreme upside player at premier position), and Michael Reed (potential MLB ready 4th outfielder at least). Carry on with your day.

[patrickgpe]

I think a team that takes someone like Lucroy will ask for Guerra too to help for the playoff push if the brewers want a Gomez type haul. I am fine with doing this again this season.