Trade value: Junior Guerra

[LouisEly]

The sample size keeps getting bigger, and he keeps pitching well. He's cheap, but he's 31 - probably time to sell high.

 

Given how cheap he is, any team could take him on without worrying about salary. Orioles? Royals? Are the Giants tapped out in payroll at $170M? They desperately need 4th/5th starters.

 

What could he bring back in trade considering how cheap he is?

[adambr2]

Not much. I don't think 8 starts is going to be enough to enamor anymore with him enough to part with a top 100 prospect, for example.

 

By himself I would say he's worth a couple lottery tickets at this very moment. He could be included in a larger trade to increase a package in a blockbuster deal for a Lucroy or Braun, similar to what we did with Fiers last year.

 

He's a little bit of a catch-22 because I could see him being worth a good deal more by this time next year if he can keep it up for that long, but by that time we might be better off just holding him.

[MrTPlush]

Honestly I am not even sure a contender would want him. At the trade deadline teams want proven guys with a track record. No serious contender is going to want a pitcher who didn't get to the bigs till he was 30 and has half a season of starts under his belt.

[pacopete4]

The best thing might be to keep putting him out there every 5 days and hope it's not a fluke. This time next year the buzz will be worth something.

[ZBTMP]

His last (2) starts may be a sign that things are catching up to him. The walks have caught up to the strikeouts and balls have landed over the fence.

 

I like him more than most. Projections love his strikeout potential. His splitter is a plus offering. I've streamed him 4 times in fantasy and been rewarded with a 1.52 ERA and will again tonight vs. a Dodgers offense that surprisingly ranks in the bottom 5 in wOBA. Unfortunately, hitters don't seem to swing at his fastball when it is outside of the zone. I'll speculate that his short height results in minimal vertical movement so hitters can judge location better.

 

There is a real dearth of quality options right now, so if he delivers the next few starts I could see some interest being generated in him, much like buzz about Fiers prior to the deadline last year. I could see the Brewers getting an organizational top 10 prospect for him.

[rwa12]

I don't think you trade him, because I don't think he brings a decent prospect. I liken him to Marco Estrada. We weren't going to get a top flight prospect, but we did receive a useful piece. I think he could bring a similar result in trade, but I'm not sure that's what we need at the deadline. Would make more sense to me to move him over the winter for a missing place holder if necessary. A journeyman catcher to replace Lucroy, or a hole on the roster we don't see at this point.

[billymac]

I'd only trade him if another team wanted him as a part of a Lucroy or Braun trade.

[logan82]

If we could get back something as good as we got back for Estrada, trade him now.

[And That]

Guerra has much more potential value than present value. Guy has 8 career starts and turned 30 a year and a half ago. In order for Guerra to have more external value than internal value, he's going to have to keep executing on the mound for the foreseeable future.

 

Unless the Brewers get bowled over, I think they hold onto him.

[ZBTMP]

If we could get back something as good as we got back for Estrada, trade him now.

 

I'm not sure a 31 year old oft-injured DH is going to have alot of value to us. Estrada was coming off a season in which he led the league in home runs allowed with a negative fWAR and was pretty close to a non-tender candidate.

 

Each teams value different things, but if Guerra matches his projections of a >K/inning and ~4 ERA over the next month; I would suspect he will generate interest.

[DougJonesChangeUp]

Guerra reminds me of Hideo Nomo on the tail end of his career with the fastball-forkball combo. I don't think it will last and I don't think he has much value. He's been a nice stop gap though.

[jerichoholicninja]

I can't see him bringing back anything this season unless he's lights out from now till the deadline. If he finishes out the year similar to how he's pitched so far I think you're looking at a Lind-to-Seattle or a Lind-from-Toronto type return - either some really young lottery tickets or a veteran with no place to play on his current team.

[monty57]

I don't think they'd get much now, so he provides more value to the Brewers as a cheap starter this year and next when they need warm bodies in the rotation. If he's still putting up decent numbers at this time next year, he would bring back a lot more in trade, and we may be able to use the spot for a prospect who has earned his shot at the majors.

[PlayerHader]

With a nice start tonight and continued success, maybe you can tack him on to a Lucroy traded to the Dodgers.

[brewcrewdue80]

He has no trade value this season. He's Bullpen destined or sat for the remainder of the season when he's nearing 165IP. It appears to me 152IP is his most in a full year back in 2011. He's at 77.2IP now. I think he filled the role of keeping Lopez/Hader/Jungmann down for service time. Maybe if he reached 165IP, a team in the offseason would consider trading for him like Atlanta or Minnesota. A team that can use him to play filler. But for season 2016 he has 0 trade value.

[dacrew101]

Pretty much what everyone else said, little to no value

[1992casey]

Junior is 31. I doubt that we'd have to worry too much about an innings limit. The concern is generally for pitchers who are 26 or younger. Up until about age 25, players are still developing physically.

[splitterpfj]

If Guerra continues to pitch well, he will have value as the added piece to a deal that was otherwise not about him.

 

There is no pitching to be had right now - teams are going to fight over Bud Norris in a couple of weeks. Guerra won't bring back much by himself right now, but he might move a team a bit higher on the return for someone like Lucroy or Will Smith.

[mlloyd10]

Do you think the redsox would want him as part of a Lucroy Package?

 

Espinoza/Devers/Ockimey for Lucroy/Guerra -

[BrewersAA]

I could see Guerra and Hill being packaged together and bringing back a close to top 100 guy like a 150 range prospect and another very young project type. That would make this season a massive succes on its own right there.

[splitterpfj]

Do you think the redsox would want him as part of a Lucroy Package?

 

Espinoza/Devers/Ockimey for Lucroy/Guerra -

 

Right now, Boston is trying not to trade any of its top four prospects - I don't think they'll be able do do that, because the needs on their big club have simply become too obvious.

 

The Red Sox have to get pitching, they really just have to, so that's the priority before anyone like Lucroy or Braun will come up. You see rumors about guys like Sonny Gray and Julio Teheran - that's what Boston wants to do, if those teams make them available.

 

Yes, I think Boston would want Guerra, but only if he's pitching well in a month, and only after they've already done something much bigger for their pitching staff, or they've been shut out on pitchers, which isn't likely.

[splitterpfj]

I could see Guerra and Hill being packaged together and bringing back a close to top 100 guy like a 150 range prospect and another very young project type. That would make this season a massive succes on its own right there.

 

Exactly, whatever level the deal gets to, Guerra moves the return higher, but he doesn't create the return.

[MrTPlush]

I don't think Guerra is moving the bar farther in any deal. Teams will take a flyer on him for some lottery tickets, but I doubt any team invests much into him.

[nate82]

The Braves have made Teheran available but their askingame price is around something like Moncada, Devers, Espinoza and another piece. Which means you are going to have to pay if you want Teheran and the Braves are not budging on their asking price for Teheran.

 

The A's may put Gray on the market but as soon as they do that they are going to be looking for 2 players from a teams top 5 plus another in the 10-15 range.

 

These players are not going to be cheap. As for Guerra he has some value but not all that much. If you are lucky you might get a young AAAA player for him.

[CheezWizHed]

As for Guerra he has some value but not all that much. If you are lucky you might get a young AAAA player for him.

 

He has to be more valuable than the Rogers trade, but less than Lind. And I'd guess that is the type of return we want to target: A-ball level (higher) talented players than a so-so guy at AAAA level.