Will Smith

[reillymcshane]

Over the last few years, good relievers traded at the deadline have typically fetched - at best - back end of the Top 100 type prospects.

 

Red Sox got Eduardo Rodriguez for Miller in 2014. And Soria fetched Jake Thompson (as well as Corey Knebel) the same year. Neither of these guys was a Top 100 player going into the season, but both were trending upwards at the time of the deal and pointing to bigger things (both would be ranked in the Top 100 the next year).

 

The big difference is that many of these relievers, such as Miller, were heading to free agency, so they were only rentals. Our guys have more control.

 

So I'm guessing that our big three relievers (Jeffress, Smith and Thornburg) would get something similar (they don't have the track record of a Miller or Soria, but have multiple years of control). I would expect a back end of the Top 100 prospect list for any of them, or perhaps a player who's trending in that direction. And it's wouldn't be surprising to see an extra player added to the deal - depending on the quality of the headlining prospect.

 

Also, teams have historically been reluctant to give up high end prospects for relievers. I think it's just kind of hard to give up a really good looking prospect for a part time guy. So I won't be surprised if any of our relievers are dealt for multiple lower level guys - guys who haven't broken out and gotten a lot of recognition yet - but have really good potential (I think of Marcos Diplan and Isan Diaz - two guys we got in A ball who could emerge as Top 100 guys in the next year or so).

[Mr Southpaw]

We are not in a position where we have to trade any of these three. If we don't get what we want, don't trade them. This time next year, they are in the same position with one less year of control. Two and a half years of control is still very attractive.

[splitterpfj]

I've said this several times, but I'll do it again. Neither Will Smith nor Jeremy Jeffress will be used as an "add on" to get a bigger deal done. The Brewers absolutely did ask Miami for three players when they called about Jeffress - the same player who went for Fernando Rodney, plus two.

 

The HUGE difference between most of the relievers on the market and these two, is the three years of remaining team control each of them offers. If the Brewers were to deal Jeffress right now, he may actually bring a better return than the Yankees will get for Aroldis Chapman, simply because Chapman is headed to free agency, while Jeffress can be had for this pennant race, and three more.

 

Guys, those two relievers are very valuable trade chips. They're both good, they've both proven that, and they both offer three more years. That is a very big deal.

 

I believe Smith will be traded, if for no other reason - he is left-handed - teams pay for that.

 

I don't expect Jeffress to move right now - he is available, but the Brewers are not pushing it, they're listening. If someone pays for him, he'll be dealt, so there's certainly a chance, but not a likelihood.

[JosephC]

Over the last few years, good relievers traded at the deadline have typically fetched - at best - back end of the Top 100 type prospects.

 

Red Sox got Eduardo Rodriguez for Miller in 2014. And Soria fetched Jake Thompson (as well as Corey Knebel) the same year. Neither of these guys was a Top 100 player going into the season, but both were trending upwards at the time of the deal and pointing to bigger things (both would be ranked in the Top 100 the next year).

 

The big difference is that many of these relievers, such as Miller, were heading to free agency, so they were only rentals. Our guys have more control.

 

So I'm guessing that our big three relievers (Jeffress, Smith and Thornburg) would get something similar (they don't have the track record of a Miller or Soria, but have multiple years of control). I would expect a back end of the Top 100 prospect list for any of them, or perhaps a player who's trending in that direction. And it's wouldn't be surprising to see an extra player added to the deal - depending on the quality of the headlining prospect.

 

Also, teams have historically been reluctant to give up high end prospects for relievers. I think it's just kind of hard to give up a really good looking prospect for a part time guy. So I won't be surprised if any of our relievers are dealt for multiple lower level guys - guys who haven't broken out and gotten a lot of recognition yet - but have really good potential (I think of Marcos Diplan and Isan Diaz - two guys we got in A ball who could emerge as Top 100 guys in the next year or so).

 

I'd say Smith is a pretty good comparable to Miller. Good point bringing up Miller, the Brewers may be able to get more for Smith than I anticipated. Don't know if I would put Smith and Jeffress in the same class as Soria, as I believe he had already piled up 150+ saves at that point and had a multi-year track record of being able to close games. But the difference in the length of control is a factor that could be used to argue comparable value, it wouldn't be a stretch at all to suggest that.

[pacopete4]

I've said this several times, but I'll do it again. Neither Will Smith nor Jeremy Jeffress will be used as an "add on" to get a bigger deal done. The Brewers absolutely did ask Miami for three players when they called about Jeffress - the same player who went for Fernando Rodney, plus two.

 

 

I agree. The only way Smith or Jeffress is an add on is if that team is adding on 2-3 more high quality prospects for a massive haul.

[JohnBriggs12]

That awful performance against the Cubs Sunday with tons of scouts in attendance might chill the market for Smith. His fastball is sitting at a very hittable 92, and his breaking ball command is spotty. That's not going to impress scouts. I don't think he's going anywhere and if he does, the return won't be much.

[Outlander]

Very well could be right, certainly not selling at peak value. If Jeffress gets traded try Smith at closer in 2017 and see what happens.

[brewcrewdue80]

I have a high value on Smith. Saying 2 top 100prospects doesnt put ceilingin to the factor. Smith is a RP, Id expect a Pitcher whose ffloor is a RP but has a #3 SP potential. Justus Sheffield to me is that type of return. And then you gotta add a 2nd player. A prospect in the 7-17ranked in the system range.

Thatd fall to Rob Kaminsky, Juan Hillman, Yu Cheng Chang, Or Yandy Diaz If I chose on The Indians range of 7-17 realistically of giving up and targets.

[LouisEly]

Given the heat conditions with the roof mostly closed, lots of people played poorly on Sunday. Lester (you saw the sweat pouring off of his cap), Braun, Lucroy, Brewers infield defense... it was a tough game.

[JohnBriggs12]

Given the heat conditions with the roof mostly closed, lots of people played poorly on Sunday. Lester (you saw the sweat pouring off of his cap), Braun, Lucroy, Brewers infield defense... it was a tough game.

 

All excuses for what was a miserable performance by a guy you want to get top value for. Sure, the error was costly but he put himself in a tough spot by hanging a breaking ball to a LH hitter who's hitting around .200. Furthermore his velocity has been down this year and the heat has nothing to do with it. He didn't look all that good Saturday night either allowing an inherited runner to score. Cub relievers weren't bothered by the heat. Perhaps Smith had the "Sid Roberson" effect. Who could forget Sid's issues gripping the baseball during a toasty night in 1995? (July 13th to be exact when the game time temp was 104).

But won't contenders be playing in heat the rest of the year too?

[LouisEly]

Most games are going to be at night - no sun - and it's not just the heat it's the humidity. Dew point was in the 70's - that is considered in the meteorology world to be "oppressive". Most stadiums are either going to be closed & air conditioned (Arizona, Tampa) or completely open-air. Having the roof mostly closed was not helping. Cleveland and San Francisco will certainly be much cooler. Texas gets hot but doesn't have the humidity; according to weather.com the humidity over the next 10 days in Dallas won't be more than 60% except for the days it is projected to rain.

 

I wouldn't say that Cubs relievers were spectacular - Richard, Nathan, and Wood all gave up a hit and a walk in an inning or less of work. Strop, Rondon, and Boyer were taking advantage of tired hitters, and the mound was in the shade by that point. Not sure at what point the mound was no longer in the sun, but that would be a factor.

 

Point being that anything can happen in one game. Maybe Smith had trouble with the ball (cue incident in Atlanta), maybe he didn't hydrate himself properly, maybe he didn't get a good night's sleep. One game doesn't define anyone in this sport.

[And That]

Smith's velocity has been down this year and his K rate is off by a whopping 35+%, so I do believe there may be legitimate concern about the health of his arm.

 

Plus his poor outing elicited a Sid Roberson reference.

[splitterpfj]

Smith's velocity has been down this year and his K rate is off by a whopping 35+%, so I do believe there may be legitimate concern about the health of his arm.

 

Plus his poor outing elicited a Sid Roberson reference.

 

Demand for Smith has absolutely been there, but I haven't spoken to anyone since yesterday's game.

[QuevedosTongue]

Smith's velocity has been down this year and his K rate is off by a whopping 35+%, so I do believe there may be legitimate concern about the health of his arm.

 

Plus his poor outing elicited a Sid Roberson reference.

 

Demand for Smith has absolutely been there, but I haven't spoken to anyone since yesterday's game.

 

I made reference to it in the game thread, but one bad outing isn't going to move the needle much regarding any player's value, unless there is an injury concern. Multiple poor games strung together will, but not one.

[And That]

I agree the one game is neither here nor there, but Smith's sample size for the velo drop and K rate crash is 23 games.

 

154 games pitched in the last two years combined with the aforementioned performance issues this season makes me more than a little nervous about Smith's prospects going forward. If the Brewers get a good but not great offer for him, I think they should be inclined to consider it.

[brewcrewdue80]

About last night's game, you know I believe it was Tommy La Stella AB. Smith pitched 4 straight Strikes only 2 were called. The ump and Counsell exchanged words mid AB on the 2nd non called strike. So instead of end of inning 3rd out.(Elmore's Error) Smith now had 2nd and 3rd 1out Bryant whom he intentially walked, Bases loaded and Rizzo a terrific hit on a great pitch. Low, Outside he reached out and put the wood on it.

 

Of course Thornburg allows Rizzo to score because it just fits the ending to Smith's outing.

 

So Remember that when you pick on Smith's outing, because a Rookie Error, Failed ump, and a spectacular hit on a quality pitch and then the runner allowed to score upon exit is what scouts watching Smith got to see.

Nothing that warrants a lesser value on his performance last night.

 

Elmore should have turned a Double play inning over. Or Smith got the strikes called on the next batter. Now, on a 90degree day, and these events happening, Smith did a darn good job where you give credit to a fantastic hit by Rizzo taking advantage of all the events that led to him even getting an AB.

[Mudville9]

Since he wasn't included in the Chapman trade, do you think we could pry Candelario+ from they for Jeffress? Looks like we could even get more.

 

I would also love to send Smith and Maldanado to Cleveland for Mejia and McKenzie.

 

Lucroy and Torres to Rangers for Brinson, Matuella, Jurado, Mendez, and two guys the scouts like in lower minors.

 

That leaves us Thornburg who can be our closer next year, bring up the two AAA catchers for the rest of the year and see what they can do.

 

That was easy....GM of the year.

 

Sorry I started out with Smith to Cubs and changed to Jeremy and forgot to change threads....

[QuevedosTongue]

I would also love to send Smith and Maldanado to Cleveland for Mejia and McKenzie.

 

I'm assuming this part was tongue-in-cheek because there is a 0% chance of that deal happening.

[Mudville9]

More wishful thinking than blue after the Chapman trade.

[splitterpfj]

If I'm the Brewers - I go.

 

With the price of pitching as high as it currently is, I expect other fringey contenders to follow the Yankees and make some of their bullpen guys available. Teams are asking KC about Wade Davis, I would expect it for Melancon in Pittsburgh, and even the Braves' closer, who is unable to pitch right now with an oblique injury is drawing interest.

 

The demand is there.

 

Don't go cheap, but that shouldn't be a problem in this market - literally every contender is looking for bullpen help, so get out there and get it done while a team or two are still deciding if they'll sell.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I'm leaning against dealing Smith unless proper value can be attained. Hes got 3 more years of control, and I think a lot of teams will be looking to buy low with his velocity and K rate down. I say you hold onto him hoping he returns to form next year.

 

All other relievers should be had for the right deal.

[MrTPlush]

The problem is other fringe contenders can't just offer their guys because then you have flooded the market.

[MNBrew]

Thanks to the tweaked knee, this year Smith's pitched a whole lot less than he has by this point in previous years. Due to being used so often earlier in the season, the past couple years, he's been noticeably less reliable during August & September. As long as the return's decent, I'm all for selling high on him before the wheels fall off (or at least seem to get fairly loose) again.

 

Sunday's outing was lousy -- everybody lays the occasional rotten egg -- but on the whole he's been darn good.

[HighHeat19]

Smith just shat the bed tonight.

[MNBrew]

He put a couple guys on but still got a couple outs. Thornburg let one of Smith's runners in.

 

Not a terribly good outing, but hardly putrid. Sunday's outing was bad.