2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[Austin Tatious]

Lucas Erceg seems under assigned by putting him in rookie ball. It may be because Gatewood is at Wisconsin at 3b. I'd imagine that Erceg will tear up rookie ball. He's too advanced for that level.

[MrTPlush]

Lucas Erceg seems under assigned by putting him in rookie ball. It may be because Gatewood is at Wisconsin at 3b. I'd imagine that Erceg will tear up rookie ball. He's too advanced for that level.

 

30 at-bats...7 games...

[Austin Tatious]

What's your point? Or do you just argue constantly for the sake of arguing?

[ZBTMP]

Since Erceg likely hasn't faced much competition at the NAIA level this spring, I think his initial placement is appropriate. Nothing is preventing him from earning a few midwest league ABs, for a hopeful Timber Rattlers playoff run later this year.

 

Erceg came up in the Fangraph chat yesterday. I guess after panicking over Brexit, Greenspan shifted his attention to underrated draft prospects.

 

 

Allen Greenspan: Thoughts on Lucas Erceg? He seems like he may have been underrated going into the draft

 

 

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re right, those are first round tools. But some teams had him off the board because of makeup.

 

Chat Link

[rwa12]

I agree for the most part, Austin. I didn't have a problem with the initial placement, as he needed to see some better pitching than NAIA. He's seen it. He can hit it. Get him to Wisconsin. I think there's precedent. It seems every year, a couple of the college guys jump after a week or two when they prove they can handle the level.

[WV Brew]

Where are you going to play him? Do you really want Gatewood losing time at 3rd? This is the problem with Ray/Clark also. You want both playing centerfield which is probably why they moved Ray to Brevard County.

[MrTPlush]

What's your point? Or do you just argue constantly for the sake of arguing?

 

Arguing? Umm?

 

I don't think anyone can draw a conclusion after as little as 30 at-bats. A few 0-4 games and his stats are nothing special. I'd think one would need at least 100 at-bats before one could really decide how he is doing.

[And That]

Where are you going to play him?

I agree that you can't have Erceg and Gatewood on the same team at this point. It's also probably true that Erceg needs to be moved up from Helena at some point in the not too-distant future. I wonder if Erceg skips Wisconsin altogether and joins Ray in Brevard?

[MrTPlush]

Where are you going to play him?

I agree that you can't have Erceg and Gatewood on the same team at this point. It's also probably true that Erceg needs to be moved up from Helena at some point in the not too-distant future. I wonder if Erceg skips Wisconsin altogether and joins Ray in Brevard?

 

I imagine he goes to A+ if he continues to mash. If he flattens out to say a good but not great .270/.330/.500 he may not move up this year. That isn't bad, but to skip A ball for A+ would be quite aggressive unless he is absolutely destroying at rookie ball. Hopefully Gatewood continues to hit and he can go to A+ sooner rather than later. Won't hold my breath on that though.

[rwa12]

What's your point? Or do you just argue constantly for the sake of arguing?

 

Arguing? Umm?

 

I don't think anyone can draw a conclusion after as little as 30 at-bats. A few 0-4 games and his stats are nothing special. I'd think one would need at least 100 at-bats before one could really decide how he is doing.

 

I don't agree with this at the Rookie club level. It's usually pretty evident right away when you're advanced for that league. We skip guys out of there pretty fast with success. As far as where to play him, skip him to A+.

[CheezWizHed]

While his OPS is over 1.000 right now, he only has 35 ABs. Maybe the boots on the ground would agree with the assessment that he is above his competition, but bumping to A+ might be a pretty big jump, too. He is also getting accustomed to professional life, which is easier at the rookie level.

 

Let him stay at Helena for at least another month. If he continues to rake, then make the decision on how to manage him and Gatewood.

[MrTPlush]

What's your point? Or do you just argue constantly for the sake of arguing?

 

Arguing? Umm?

 

I don't think anyone can draw a conclusion after as little as 30 at-bats. A few 0-4 games and his stats are nothing special. I'd think one would need at least 100 at-bats before one could really decide how he is doing.

 

I don't agree with this at the Rookie club level. It's usually pretty evident right away when you're advanced for that league. We skip guys out of there pretty fast with success. As far as where to play him, skip him to A+.

 

Correct me if I am wrong, but the promotion is usually Arizona to Helena. Clark had 200 at-bats before a bump to Helena from Arizona. Then a few months in extended ST this year before going to Wisconsin. He was a HS kid though.

[rwa12]

I could be dead wrong, but I seem to recall a handful of college bats moving through rookie ball rather quickly. I may be confusing the AZ-Helena move with the Helena to Wisconsin. 37 AB may even be quick for that. I seem to remember Nick Ramirez blowing through Helena pretty quickly, and obviously Weeks/Braun superstars as well.

[splitterpfj]

As Toby mentioned, the issue of having Gatewood at Appleton, may cause Ercig to jump to Brevard at some point this season.

 

Whether or not that happens, it points to a future conflict - Gatewood had better produce, because there's a player at the same position who may very well move him out of the way. I don't see Ercig spending this whole season in Helena, and beyond that, this could easily be a collision course in less than a year.

[MrTPlush]

Nick Ramirez would probably be the best comparable. Early round pick, but not at the top of the draft. He lasted 103 at-bats before getting a bump to A-ball.

 

The problem is we just got a new scouting director and GM so the past is of no use. We don't know how either is going to treat new draftees.

[Austin Tatious]

What's your point? Or do you just argue constantly for the sake of arguing?

 

Arguing? Umm?

 

I don't think anyone can draw a conclusion after as little as 30 at-bats. A few 0-4 games and his stats are nothing special. I'd think one would need at least 100 at-bats before one could really decide how he is doing.

 

That's fine but I never once mentioned that Erceg was doing well. In fact, I didn't have his stats in front of me. I used future tense to say "I'd imagine he will tear up rookie ball." So your reply came across as a non-sequitur.

 

Erceg played at NAIA level this year, but he was a three year college guy who played at Cal for two years. He's now on the same team as very raw precocious talents like Demi Orimoleye and Gibert Lara. As I alluded to, and others also pointed out, Gatewood is sitting at A so they probably wanted Erceg to play in rookie ball so both guys can play at 3b.

 

I tell you what, neither is a sure bet, but I am hopeful on both Gatewood and Erceg. Gatewood needs to tighten his swing but he's making strides. He also needs to clean up his defense at 3b. He's got prodigious power. Erceg is athletic and can defend potentially well at third. Watching these two jockey for the ultimate 3b job eventually will be fascinating. I will say I love the competition.

[Austin Tatious]

Back on the placement issue, Tom Flanagan was on the broadcast tonight, in case anyone missed it. He pointedly said that Erceg may get a bump quickly to the Timber Rattlers. As a fan, you can get a feel for these things by observing over time. Based on Erceg's experience level, talent, and draft pedigree, he has all the hallmarks of getting out of Helena quickly.

[MrTPlush]

Moving him to the T-Rats is a great idea, except Gatewood is there. I really doubt they send Gatewood to Helena and I don't think they would send him to Brevard at this point either.

 

What do you do? Shift him back to SS? Does he have the ability to play 2B?

 

Just a really weird situation. Is there a right way to do it?

[rwa12]

If they're worried about a logjam, they could give Erceg another quick audition stop. Give him a few starts at WI and see if he hits, if he's comfortable, send him up to Brevard. Otherwise, objectively, you figure out who is the faster moving prospect, and give him the starts.