2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[brewmann04]

I not sure that won't be a bad idea for the crew especially if he wants more than his slot

[MrTPlush]

Corey Ray is going to sign. This is all about getting every penny they can to give to a guy they nabbed in a later round. $50k can be a big deal for convincing one of those later guys to sign. $200k vs. $250k or whatever may be the difference between signing or not.

[Never Outhustled]

Corey Ray is going to sign. This is all about getting every penny they can to give to a guy they nabbed in a later round. $50k can be a big deal for convincing one of those later guys to sign. $200k vs. $250k or whatever may be the difference between signing or not.

 

Yup, and the Brewers have pretty good leverage in these negotiations. They can simply point out that Ray has a historically low OPS for a top 5 collegiate drafted hitter. The type that produces fringe MLB players, if they make it at all.

 

You'd think his signing would have been announced yesterday. I'm starting to wonder if there's a medical issue here?

[Daubs]

Tom ‏@Haudricourt 9 minutes ago

 

#Brewers have signed first-round draft pick Corey Ray, an OF from University of Louisville, for $4.125 million.

[1992casey]

Here's the McCalvy article:

 

http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/article/186094270/brewers-finalize-deal-with-corey-ray

 

He's going to do a press conference and batting practice to coincide with today's game.

[homer]

I think this means the Brewers are roughly $1 million under? Can anyone confirm? Maybe they pony up some cash for that kid in Arizona now.

[Austin Tatious]

Agreed - let's get McClanahan. Mid round picks like Henry, Thomas and McClanahan. There's some good potential and upside there.

[MrTPlush]

I think this means the Brewers are roughly $1 million under? Can anyone confirm? Maybe they pony up some cash for that kid in Arizona now.

 

They can afford him. He was rumored unlikely to sign after the third round which is approx. $600,000 at the lowest.

[And That]

I think this means the Brewers are roughly $1 million under? Can anyone confirm?

They have $1,208,915 to sign McClanahan only:

 

viewtopic.php?p=990351#p990351

 

That number goes up by $100k for each additional guy they sign because the first $100k doesn't count past round 10. So I'm optimistic they can get McClanahan, Clark and one of Crow or Lillis. They should be able to get two of those guys at least.

[1992casey]

Ray's going to be starting out at Brevard County.

[patrickgpe]

Ray's going to be starting out at Brevard County.

makes sense, I was still hoping he would have gone to Wisconsin for a week or 2, i would have made the trip to see him live, i assume he will start in center, so putting him in BC doesn't take time away from clark

[splitterpfj]

Ray's going to be starting out at Brevard County.

 

That's a bold move, its been a while since the Brewers took a college bat so highly in the draft, I'm not used to seeing a kid jump right to A+.

[MrTPlush]

Ray's going to be starting out at Brevard County.

 

That's a bold move, its been a while since the Brewers took a college bat so highly in the draft, I'm not used to seeing a kid jump right to A+.

 

Yah pretty surprised they decided to throw him into that hitters nightmare. Hopefully he can mentally handle it if he struggles a bit. Surprised they didn't send him to (hopefully) mash at Single-A for a few weeks.

 

Clearly they want him to get moving though the minors. This would put him on a path to debut in 2018 if he hits well.

[Never Outhustled]

Ray's going to be starting out at Brevard County.

 

That's a bold move, its been a while since the Brewers took a college bat so highly in the draft, I'm not used to seeing a kid jump right to A+.

 

Braun didn't go to A+ until his 2nd pro season, and that was after having an OPS 250 points higher in college.

 

This is as poor of placement as putting Medeiros at A+ this season. After Rays pedestrian collegiate production, it would be doubtful he'd hit well in A ball, much less A+.

[Eye Black]

Ray's going to be starting out at Brevard County.

 

That's a bold move, its been a while since the Brewers took a college bat so highly in the draft, I'm not used to seeing a kid jump right to A+.

 

Braun didn't go to A+ until his 2nd pro season, and that was after having an OPS 250 points higher in college.

 

This is as poor of placement as putting Medeiros at A+ this season. After Rays pedestrian collegiate production, it would be doubtful he'd hit well in A ball, much less A+.

I wasn't a big proponent of the Corey Ray selection (although I think he's likely a future major leaguer), but you've made the point about college OPS several times throughout this thread. I would be interested to see how closely college OPS either does or doesn't align with professional success. I am not convinced it as closely associated as we may think, but I could certainly be wrong.

 

A recent example of a player with a low college OPS (much lower than Corey Ray) is 2015 first round draft pick Kevin Newman who had a .817 OPS in 3 years at Arizona and went on to hit for a .929 OPS in 41 Florida State League games this year before being called up to AA. Small sample size, but at least an interesting parallel. Similarly to Ray, Newman was a guy Keith Law had near the top of his draft board.

[Eye Black]

If he has fans here, please name me another OF with a college OPS as low as Rays who became an All-Star. Please! Help me be happy again!

 

College stats don't directly correlate with pro stats. If they did, Rickie Weeks would have been a multiple MVP winner, which people still thought he would be when he was in the minors.

 

Yes, some high OPS hitters don't pan out, but that's not the discussion here. I'm looking for an OF who didn't have a high OPS who did become an impact player. Can you name one? Please, help me out!

I didn't search too hard, but looking at some past All-Stars here are a few that match your criteria. All links are for Baseball Cube which includes college stats. I put Corey Ray at the top for those not familiar with his college stats.

 

Corey Ray NCAA career (3 years at Louisville) OPS of .928

 

Michael Bourn NCAA career (3 years at Houston) OPS of .802

 

Brett Gardner NCAA career (4 years at College of Charleston) OPS of .930

 

Curtis Granderson had a ridiculous Junior year, but his first two years at Illinois-Chicago he had OPS' of .822 and .932.

 

Ian Kinsler is not an OF, but an NCAA career (1 year at Central Arizona, 1 year at Arizona State, 1 year at Missouri) OPS of .923

[Boomer5]

I've come around to the Ray pick, mostly because I have no choice.

 

I fully expect him to be the Brewers starting LF by 2018. I think he will be a good player for us. Not a difference maker but a solid contributor.

 

I do expect him to move up quickly and based on starting him at A+ , the Brewers do too.

[CheezWizHed]

I wonder if David Stearns will bring a more aggressive MiLB placement philosophy to the Brewers? It was pretty surprising to see such young players come back in the Gomez/Fiers trade that were so high in the Houston farm teams. That was a pretty big contrast to the normal Brewer promotion schedule.

 

Or if that is only a result of having good players move through the system quickly.

[MrTPlush]

I wonder if David Stearns will bring a more aggressive MiLB placement philosophy to the Brewers? It was pretty surprising to see such young players come back in the Gomez/Fiers trade that were so high in the Houston farm teams. That was a pretty big contrast to the normal Brewer promotion schedule.

 

Or if that is only a result of having good players move through the system quickly.

 

I think you answered your own question. Players typically don't get to the majors quickly because of aggressive placement. Most really do start in low A ball etc. They move fast because they do well and teams somewhat aggressively promote them. Though when they are hitting/pitching well promoting a guy after a half season or less at a level isn't really being aggressive. Only thing that may be aggressive is when a team makes a player skip AA.

 

If you are an international signing or a HS player it isn't hard to move a level a year and make the big leagues by 23. We just have too many players struggling or falling off the map before they can make it all the way up.

[CheezWizHed]

Certainly a player must perform to be awarded the promotion. But I was pretty shocked to see the ages of the four players we got back last year:

- Houser: 22 at AA

- Hader: 21 at AA

- Maverick: 21 at AA

- Santana: 22 at MLB/AAA

 

With some exceptions, most of our 21/22 yo players are in A and A+. I've not looked at the Houston farm team to see if this is more of a trend or if we cherry picked players that were younger. Obviously, they were some of the best players in the Houston organization.

 

So, I was curious if it was only talent or if there is a difference in development philosophy.

 

Though when they are hitting/pitching well promoting a guy after a half season or less at a level isn't really being aggressive.

That is pretty aggressive for the Brewers. I've seen them skip levels when initially placing a guy, but rarely promote after only 1/2 season. Fielder and Braun did it, but not much at the lower levels.

 

Even placing Maverick/Houser back in AA this year was a bit of a slow promotion plan.

[MrTPlush]

I agree it does seem they are very reluctant to have a guy move levels mid season unless it is very late in the season. Unless of course it is someone leaving rookie ball or a prospect they wish was at the next level a long time ago(Roache). I wonder how much of that has to do with higher end talent not having much success and they are less likely to push lesser know prospects.

[Boomer5]

I wonder if David Stearns will bring a more aggressive MiLB placement philosophy to the Brewers? It was pretty surprising to see such young players come back in the Gomez/Fiers trade that were so high in the Houston farm teams. That was a pretty big contrast to the normal Brewer promotion schedule.

 

Or if that is only a result of having good players move through the system quickly.

 

Could be. In the case of starting Ray in high A and Nottimgham in AA they have show they will move people aggressively with a plan in mind. Both players figure to be in Milwaukee soon.

 

On the hand Phillips in AA says they still have a lot of caution.

[Outlander]

They have been pretty aggressive with Malik Collymore this year as well going from rookie ball to A+. Has responded well thus far with 268/359/375, not sure if he is the odd man out though with Ray coming. Maybe down to low A.

[nate82]

Here is an article back in 2011 from Baseball Prospectus. With Arnold in the front office now I wouldn't be surprised if players are slow tracked through the minors especially pitchers. Batters on the other hand will be fast tracked through the minors. This is of course if the Brewers follow the Rays example of moving pitchers slowly through the minors and hitters quickly through the minors. Though this doesn't really change all that much as the Brewers were already doing this.

 

 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/u/images/MiLBPA.png

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/u/images/MiLBIP(1).png

[MrTPlush]

They have been pretty aggressive with Malik Collymore this year as well going from rookie ball to A+. Has responded well thus far with 268/359/375, not sure if he is the odd man out though with Ray coming. Maybe down to low A.

 

Brandon Diaz? Isn't he the CFer right now?