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2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

1992casey
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And That Nashville Sounds

And That

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This is the most college-heavy draft I've seen for the Brewers. Only one pick was out of HS.

The last time 5 of their first 6 picks were college guys was 2010:

 

14. Dylan Covey (HS - did not sign)

64. Jimmy Nelson

96. Tyler Thornburg

129. Hunter Morris

159. Matt Miller

189. Cody Hawn

 

The Brewers also got Yadiel Rivera in the 9th and Jason Rogers in the 32nd. Not too terrible of a draft, I guess.

@YouKnowAndThat | Almost, Tim Dell
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dlk9s Carolina Mudcats

dlk9s

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Christopher Crawford ‏@CVCrawfordBP 1m1 minute ago Coronado, CA

Sorry, that was the #Brewers who got Burnes. I should have guessed. They've had the best draft of any team and I'm not sure it's close.

http://i.imgur.com/0do8l.gif

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Warning Track Power Carolina Mudcats

Warning Track Power

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Just based on MLB.com's top 200 prospects, the Brewers, through pick #141, have drafted:

 

#6 Corey Ray

#39 Corbin Burnes

#56 Lucas Erceg

#80 Zack Brown

#103 Braden Webb

#143 Mario Feliciano

 

For those who don't follow the college or high school ranks as closely as others, not too bad considering the past years where some of the names drafted this high were not even ranked.

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Crash2303 Draft Eligible

Crash2303

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Webb and Burnes now join the ranks of Nash Walters and Trey Supak, of young pitchers in the low levels with plenty of upside and "stuff", but who also are pretty raw and haven't been able to put it together yet. we'll see how they all shake out as they develop, but I like all of their potential.
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Roderick First Round Pick

Roderick

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Someone posting 44 steals in 44 attempts... well, he's clearly got a plus tool/skillset in that area. He's got speed, and the right instincts on the basepaths. He did show improvement in OBP skills, as well.

 

My bet? He posts some solid numbers over his career, .285 average, 35-40 doubles, 10-12 triples, 15-20 homers, and 35-40 steals a season. Could do a lot worse.

 

I saw posts regarding college OPS, but didn't see average, which I think may have more correlation?....

 

Does a .320 ACC college batting average (ignore babip for now) correlate to a .285 batting average guess for the pros? I don't follow this so I don't know, but it would seem that .285 would be generous of what to expect.

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SRB First Round Pick

SRB

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Someone posting 44 steals in 44 attempts... well, he's clearly got a plus tool/skillset in that area. He's got speed, and the right instincts on the basepaths. He did show improvement in OBP skills, as well.

 

My bet? He posts some solid numbers over his career, .285 average, 35-40 doubles, 10-12 triples, 15-20 homers, and 35-40 steals a season. Could do a lot worse.

 

I saw posts regarding college OPS, but didn't see average, which I think may have more correlation?....

 

Does a .320 ACC college batting average (ignore babip for now) correlate to a .285 batting average guess for the pros? I don't follow this so I don't know, but it would seem that .285 would be generous of what to expect.

 

I don't think you can correlate college stats to pro stats, it's just a different game and that's not what teams draft or evaluate players on. All this nonsense about Ray only having an upper-.900s OPS is almost entirely based on the fact that he "only" had a .315 AVG rather than a .380 AVG like other good college hitters. That's what "lowered" his OPS, because his plate discipline and ISO were top-tier. Now, one could argue that "only" hitting .315 in college raises concerns about his hit tool, but every scouting report I've seen says his hit tool is fine and will be average or better in pro ball (so a .285 AVG projection seems reasonable).

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UMBrewer Prep Ball

UMBrewer

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Erceg has been accused of being a bit of a tool and now having much of a brain....having his lid off so to speak

 

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=lucas+with+the+lid+off&view=detail&mid=E1255E8A4DBA34DAE053E1255E8A4DBA34DAE053&FORM=VIRE

 

Lawrie 2.0, hopefully he can get traded away for a middling soft tosser when the opportunity presents itself.

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homer MVP

homer

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Erceg has been accused of being a bit of a tool and not having much of a brain....having his lid off so to speak

 

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=lucas+with+the+lid+off&view=detail&mid=E1255E8A4DBA34DAE053E1255E8A4DBA34DAE053&FORM=VIRE

 

 

Maybe you missed this article:

http://www.d1baseball.com/analysis/adversity-guides-ercegs-new-path/

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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Yolk Prep Ball

Yolk

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My initial disappointment in the Ray pick was because 3 of the 4 players I wanted over him were still on the board (Groome, Lowe, Rutherford). That said, he seems to have a high probability of reaching the majors compared to most and seems like a good kid. I'm not crazy about the next 2 picks (Erceg and Feliciano) but I LOVED rounds 3-6 -- especially Corbin Burnes and Payton Henry.

 

Now just give me a couple of fliers on these kids and I'll be ecstatic:

 

Carlos Cortes

Blake Sabol

Ray Gaither

Will Ethridge

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clancyphile Carolina Mudcats

clancyphile

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I know part of the concern with Ray is his ability to stick in CF, but keep in mind that we may have 2 other "CF's" playing in the OF. I think if Ray is in CF, Clark in LF, and Phillips in RF, that will be fine. If Ray can take a good route on the ball even if he lacks some speed out there, Clark and Phillips would be able to make up the difference.

 

I think the defensive advantages of three CFs in the outfield would also help a bit. Fewer balls drop between outfielders.

 

Range on defense has to be a good thing...

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homer MVP

homer

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thanks for tip homer, though my comment was mainly to throw a reference out there from the past...i will keep a lid on it next time

 

 

Oh rest assured I watched the entire video :)

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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