2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[Patrick425]

I read some of the posts right around the Brewers first pick and did not have time to go through all 24 pages of posts, but there seemed to be a lot of hand wringing over the Brewers not selecting Groome as their first pick. From what I read about him recently, it sounded like his agent had upped the ante considerably in regards to what they were looking for in a signing bonus and that he also had decided to go to a CC instead of Vanderbilt (if he decides to hold out). Seems like Groome would have been a risky pick for a team like the Brewers as he may have decided to wait a year and play CC ball if they were unable to pony up the kind of money he was looking for.

 

Also, good for the 2 WI boys selected in the first two rounds!! I used to see Gavin Lux occasionally at Hitters when my son was doing some baseball things there. I didn't know who he was at the time, but I sure remember him..not because I really saw him in action that much, but because of the way he carried himself. You could just kinda tell that he was one of the Hitter's "prodigys". He just had that swagger. I do think my son may have played against his team once or twice in a Hitter's spring league a few years ago, but I'm not sure.

[Bnowell4evr]

At this point I'm hoping they go for some high upside HS kids. I don't know what our bonus pool is looking like but there's a lot of talented kids still available. Stearns made a killing in the 3rd through 6th round while at Houston and I'm hoping he does the same here.

 

Some guys I'm very interested in are 1B/LHP Walker Robbins, RHP Skylar Szynski, RHP Nick Hansen, RHP Ray Gaither and LHP Adam Laskey. Erik Miller looks really intriguing as a 6'5 LHP with a 3 pitch mix but he's probably unsignable with his commitment to Stanford.

[homer]

I prefer position players to pitchers early in round 1. Too much risk in a flameout - especially high school arms. I feel like position players are more of a sure bet.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Stearns made a killing in the 3rd through 6th round while at Houston and I'm hoping he does the same here.

 

Interesting point. The Brewers went with slot to slightly under-slot guys last night. Maybe the plan will be to take a couple tough sign/over slot HS guys in the 3-6 range and then fill out the rest of the top 10 rounds with under slot college guys.

[Jenkins5]

One thought is I doubt Jack Z would have taken Ray. At the time, we were always told they looked for a player with an outstanding tool--Rogers' velocity, Fielder's power, Weeks' bat, Braun's bat, etc. not sure he would have passed on Puk's repertoire. Still, I hold back my judgement until later.

 

I completely agree, Senzel (bat), Lewis (bat/power) Pint (velocity) , Colliens (Power) seem the most likely targets. In 1st round he wanted elite power arm (Rogers & Jeffress), Advanced bat (Braun), Explosive/ Electric bat (Weeks & Lawrie), & Pure power (Laporta)

 

Jack Z really had a type in the 1st round. He could care less if you could field a ball or play defense as long as they could hit.

[bullox]

If he has fans here, please name me another OF with a college OPS as low as Rays who became an All-Star. Please! Help me be happy again!

 

College stats don't directly correlate with pro stats. If they did, Rickie Weeks would have been a multiple MVP winner, which people still thought he would be when he was in the minors.

[Mudville9]

I know part of the concern with Ray is his ability to stick in CF, but keep in mind that we may have 2 other "CF's" playing in the OF. I think if Ray is in CF, Clark in LF, and Phillips in RF, that will be fine. If Ray can take a good route on the ball even if he lacks some speed out there, Clark and Phillips would be able to make up the difference.

[fondybrewfan]

A Ray, Clark, Phillips combo in the OF probably would be on the weaker side in terms of power potential; but a lot of the other tools are really nice. Odds are that OF never happens but it is fun to dream.

[reillymcshane]

If he has fans here, please name me another OF with a college OPS as low as Rays who became an All-Star. Please! Help me be happy again!

 

College stats don't directly correlate with pro stats. If they did, Rickie Weeks would have been a multiple MVP winner, which people still thought he would be when he was in the minors.

Jackie Bradley, Jr. Hit .247 with a .346 OBP his walk year. He was far better his freshman and sophomore years (.349 and .368), so I suspect he was injured or something (plus he only play 42 games as a junior).

[reillymcshane]

A Ray, Clark, Phillips combo in the OF probably would be on the weaker side in terms of power potential; but a lot of the other tools are really nice. Odds are that OF never happens but it is fun to dream.

It would be one of the fastest groups in the league.

[patrickgpe]

Who are the next best pitchers for the third round?

id love funkhouser, he has definitely lost some cash for going back to school, i don't think he will be around with the 5th pick though.

[UMBrewer]

So I was at a charity event last night, so I wasnt able to respond to the first round pick.

 

Not happy with it at all. Especially since they passed on Puk, Groome as well as Braxton Garrett and Kyle Lewis.

 

I dont think that Ray is going to stick in CF, so that decreases his value, and then the power and speed should be nice, but that translates into a ceiling of an average MLB LF.

 

I would much rather have the guy who can be the potential Ace (Puk, Groome) or the #2 (Garrett) or the above average RF with more power.

 

I feel like Ray would have been a good pick for a team in the bottom of the 1st round as opposed to the 5th pick. I have no problem with the player, just that the Brewers passed up on potentially 4 Really good players to land one safe average player. It reminded me of a Bruce Seid pick.

 

Not too annoyed by the 2nd rounder, but I just wish they would start to load up on some arms in the farm system.

[Boomer5]

I do think Ray will play in the majors someday. I just don't think he has star written on him. He is unlikely to stay in CF which means he will be a corner OF who can hit and steal bases but won't have power. Given the Clark pick this is somewhat redundant. There's nothing wrong with that but that means the Brewers need to find power elsewhere.

 

That's part of the issue. Our power guys on the farm really aren't hitting for power, or much at all.

 

Not a bust pick by any means, but not the next Braun and Fielder either which is what you want if you are paying slot at 5.

[Ennder]

If he has fans here, please name me another OF with a college OPS as low as Rays who became an All-Star. Please! Help me be happy again!

 

College stats don't directly correlate with pro stats. If they did, Rickie Weeks would have been a multiple MVP winner, which people still thought he would be when he was in the minors.

 

Mike Schmidt played 2 years of college ball and had an OPS of .561 and .841.

 

Paul Molitor's last year in college was a .907 OPS. You can find a lot of examples. Not like a .958 OPS is complete garbage or something, even if it is in college.

[And That]

There is enough of a mixed opinion as to whether or not Ray will be able to stick in center that I don't agree with the idea that he absolutely won't be able to play there long term.

 

And from a practicality standpoint, Maverick Phillips is a stud defender and will make it to MLB as a center fielder on his glove alone. So even if Ray doesn't stick in center, that doesn't seem to be a huge organizational foible at the moment.

[amt2138]

Who is on everybody's wish list today?

I'm more of a college follower than I am high school so guys like Nick Banks, Bobby Dalbec and Matt Krook would excite me. Funkhouser would work for me as well as some of you have mentioned already.

 

Whitewater's Lake Bachar should be picked up today as well. Not sure if that is a pick I want the Brewers to make or not.

 

 

As far as college stats go I know a few guys like Matt Carpenter at a similar age and Stephen Piscotty in his draft year were around Ray. Also Matt Duffy was a complete disaster offensively in college. if the Brewers draft Krook who I mentioned above I would be pumped and his ERA and walk rate is atrocious. I also would have been really happy with drafting Alec Hansen who had really bad numbers this year.

[Jenkins5]

The more I read & listen to Ray, he is a hard guy not to like & cheer for. He really is a class act with incredible work ethic & effort. While I liked other guys better as prospects & ceiling, I'll be a Ray fan & root for him to make it. At end of day, he is great kid, athlete, and most important, he's a Brewer... He could possibly help this team down the road. I have said whole time he is a good player, will be solid MLB but just didnt think he had the star potential tools that others had. Time will tell, hope he makes me eat every word.

 

Hopefully they land some high upside guys today! Mendoza has been said to be a near lock for college. Would love a HS arm right away in 3rd. As mention before about Houston in rounds 3-6..... Brewers already are experiencing the benefits of that since both Philliips & Nottingham went in the 6th round to them in back to back years.....

[BrewersAA]

i know that this board tends to get down on college players, but when i heard billy beane speak this spring one of the things he mentioned is that the top of their board have moved almost entirely to collegiate players because his analytics team used all of the data available as far back as they could go and a collegiate players taken in the first 5 rounds make an "impact" at the big league level 90% more often than a highschool player taken in the same spot. Then he said, "my scouts hate me for this, but we cannot argue with history and the data." he said he joked at their next meeting that they would ONLY draft college players and one of his scouts got up and quit right there.

[Jenkins5]

Krook has all the potential in world but hasn't bounced back to form after TJ. Good risk to take. The arm is there. Jesus Luzardo is my top target personally. Before TJ, he looked like he could be a guy to drop into mid-late 1st round.

 

Bobby Dalbec = Will Middlebrook correct? Am I wrong? Bat has potential though.

 

Heath Quinn would be nice snag

 

Another arm Mike Shawaryn

[fondybrewfan]

Two WI players yesterday; anyone in the State expected to get picked today? Kind of incredible there have only been 26 WI prep players ever drafted in the first 2 rounds. WI isn't a hotbed for baseball but that just seems amazing to me.

[3and2Fastball]

I don't know if Stearns et al are following a trend (Kansas City Royals: high contact/plus speed/plus gloves) or trying to get away from the current model (more HR's, less contact hitters) in creating a new paradigm, but it is clear that he has a general plan in place to build a team with disciplined, high OBP hitters with above average athleticism and defensive versatility.

 

Corey Ray fits that mold. I like the pick

[Never Outhustled]

If he has fans here, please name me another OF with a college OPS as low as Rays who became an All-Star. Please! Help me be happy again!

 

College stats don't directly correlate with pro stats. If they did, Rickie Weeks would have been a multiple MVP winner, which people still thought he would be when he was in the minors.

 

Yes, some high OPS hitters don't pan out, but that's not the discussion here. I'm looking for an OF who didn't have a high OPS who did become an impact player. Can you name one? Please, help me out!

[MilwaukeeBeers]

While initially I wasn't thrilled about Ray, the only guys I wanted over him were Pint, Groome, and Lewis. Pint got picked before the Brewers, Groome's agent is Scott Boras (I may have a mildly irrational dislike for Boras), and there seem to be some folks who have questions about Lewis.

Nothing irrational about that especially after Kyle Lohse.

[Boomer5]

There is enough of a mixed opinion as to whether or not Ray will be able to stick in center that I don't agree with the idea that he absolutely won't be able to play there long term.

 

And from a practicality standpoint, Maverick Phillips is a stud defender and will make it to MLB as a center fielder on his glove alone. So even if Ray doesn't stick in center, that doesn't seem to be a huge organizational foible at the moment.

 

That's the point. Between Phillips and Ray's questionable CF tool, we drafted a corner OF without plus power. As we did last year in Clark.

 

Both Clark and Ray can apparently hit so that's a good thing but the power in the farm system is virtually non existent. I just glanced the stats but I don't think we have a single player on the farm with 10 home runs. That is a bit alarming.

[LouisEly]

Duplantier and Luzardo were on my list, although Duplantier is an eligible sophomore so he does have some leverage.