2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[1992casey]

But the irrational thought process of this board continues to boggle my mind

 

Stop that. Statements like that are in way too many of your posts.

[Austin Tatious]

One issue with pitchers, is that the majority of the top pitchers were taken high in the draft. In many cases, most teams don't even get a whiff at the chance to draft them. If you look at where David Price, Justin Verlander, Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, Zach Grienke and company were drafted, it's high in the draft. Price and Verlander were at the top.

 

There are always exceptions to the rule. Statistically, pointing to an outlier like Arrieta and saying that can happen is not a statistically valid analysis. In that case, you'd have to look at what an exceptional case he is statistically from all the other pitchers who are aces. Arrieta does not change the fact that, it is imperative to seize your chance to get a front line pitcher high in the draft because the Arrieta opportunity is so rare.

 

Melvin did a great job getting Diplan as a teen for Gallardo. Diplan was the top int'l draft prospect his year. Melvin did well with some trades where we got much more for players than many thought we could. Trading for lottery ticket arms is definitely a viable option. But seizing on front line pitching high in the draft when it comes your way is important.

[DougJonesChangeUp]

Thought I saw that 44/52 number somewhere.

 

44/44 would have been awesome though.

[SRB]

Thought I saw that 44/52 number somewhere.

 

44/44 would have been awesome though.

 

Don't have the totals in front of me, but through his college career he had an 89% success rate (which is not 100% but is still elite)

 

On top of his across-the-board physical tools, everything I've read suggests Ray has an 80-grade makeup/work ethic.

[JohnBriggs12]

I just don't see Ray as a top 5 type pick but that doesn't mean he'll not be a fine player. When commentators on MLB Network are bringing up a name like Oddibe McDowell as a comparison, geesh. You don't use the 5th pick in the draft for an Oddibe McDowell clone. McDowell had all of 10 wins above replacement his entire career and a career .672 OPS. Now if he becomes the second coming of Ray Lankford, another name that was mentioned, fine.

[1992casey]

The Louisville Athletics stat page has Corey's SB/CS at 44/52.

 

I've addressed the discrepancy in the official thread Corey Ray post. I don't like changing an author's information, so I made it clear that I was the one who made the change.

[Mr Southpaw]

WHo should we draft in the third round?

 

Rizzo and Mendoza are high ranked left handed 3Bers. I would pick either if they are signable.

[MrTPlush]

A lot of great/amazing pitchers go in the 6-15 range too. You don't have to draft them Top 5. This wasn't our last chance to get one. Honestly this years Ace crop was pretty horrid. The fact AJ Puk was in the running for the #1 pick is kind of sad. Riley Pint also has major concerns himself. All three of the well known pitchers in the draft could totally flop and I wouldn't even blink.

 

Seriously go look up every draft since 2008(that's where I stopped). Count how many pitchers taken Top 5 that have become Aces. You know how many I counted? ONE. Gerrit Cole is the only one that has been that good and he was selected #1. Heck I think I counted more flat out flops than average MLB pitchers. Historically picking a pitcher Top 5 does not work. Not to mention many prior drafts had way better pitching prospects than this one.

 

It almost always seems that they go 7-15. Why I don't know.

[rwa12]

There are always exceptions to the rule. Statistically, pointing to an outlier like Arrieta and saying that can happen is not a statistically valid analysis. In that case, you'd have to look at what an exceptional case he is statistically from all the other pitchers who are aces. Arrieta does not change the fact that, it is imperative to seize your chance to get a front line pitcher high in the draft because the Arrieta opportunity is so rare.

 

I don't disagree with you at all. I don't think it's quite as exclusive as the top 10 picks, but the majority come from there. I think the key is knowing when those guys are present. I'm not sure they were in this draft. Of the big 3, I think Puk/Pint project as closers, and Groome is the one who could be special. Maybe the make up concerns were worse than advertised. If RM didn't feel there was a special arm in this draft, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt. He's hit on some decent arms in his drafting career.

[fondybrewfan]

It seems to me that the biggest knock people seem to be having is that perhaps is power isn't going to translate and scouts are mixed if he can play CF or not. Obviously if he can play CF I am completely fine if he ends up being that speedy leadoff hitter with doubles power and 10 home runs. Getting that out of a corner OF is a little different. That being said if the makeup of the team doesn't require that a LF be a middle of the order hitter than who really cares? As long as you are getting power from somewhere I don't really care if our LF is only giving 10 HR's a year.

 

I don't know anything about the other two picks; but it would be nice to develop an actual 3rd base prospect one of these years so hopefully the 2nd rounder works out.

[And That]

Rizzo was taken in the second by the Mariners.

 

Mendoza seems like a good option. Jesus Luzardo had Tommy John recently but might be the best HS LHP on the board. The Brewers have been connected with another prep lefty, Walker Robbins. Funkhouser would be an interesting pick.

[Mr Southpaw]

Who are the next best pitchers for the third round?

[Austin Tatious]

A lot of great/amazing pitchers go in the 6-15 range too. You don't have to draft them Top 5. This wasn't our last chance to get one. Honestly this years Ace crop was pretty horrid. The fact AJ Puk was in the running for the #1 pick is kind of sad. Riley Pint also has major concerns himself. All three of the well known pitchers in the draft could totally flop and I wouldn't even blink.

 

Seriously go look up every draft since 2008(that's where I stopped). Count how many pitchers taken Top 5 that have become Aces. You know how many I counted? ONE. Gerrit Cole is the only one that has been that good and he was selected #1. Heck I think I counted more flat out flops than average MLB pitchers. Historically picking a pitcher Top 5 does not work. Not to mention many prior drafts had way better pitching prospects than this one.

 

It almost always seems that they go 7-15. Why I don't know.

 

You're stuck on top 5. That's arbitrary. If the Brewers passed on someone, by definition he's going lower than 5. You have a preconceived argument you're trying to espouse when the facts just aren't with you. I'm fine with agreeing to disagree. This will all be decided. We will see how pitchers taken after 5 like Manning, Puk, Garrett, and Groome are ranked as prospects over time compared to Ray. We will see if any of them could be traded for in the future or if the same posters who didn't want to draft them will in turn laugh at the idea of trading for them in a couple of years (even for Ray). We will see how their careers turn out compared to Ray's career. We will see how it all turns out. And this thread will sit here waiting to be reopened.

[Mr Southpaw]

You read my mind, And That!

[pogokat]

i was kinda hoping for funkhouser with the comp b pick.

[Mr Southpaw]

How about Dane Dunning out of Florida.

[JDBrewCrew]

Dunning was taken already

[billymac]

Mayo's best available pitchers are, most of the top lefties are gone in the top 100:

 

#34 Jared Horn RHP, HS 6'4" http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/40395496/v625877583

#39 Corbin Burnes, RHP, Jr 6'3" http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/40395496/v625727783

#44 Jon Duplantier, RHP, Jr 6'3" http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/40395496/v632815383

#58 Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Sr 6'2" http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/40395496/v532382283

#66 Zach Jackson, RHP Jr 6'3" http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/40395496/v532382183

#70 Chad Hockin, RHP Jr 6'2" http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/40395496/v532368383

#76 Ryan Rolison, LHP HS 6'2" http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/40395496/v632814883

#77 Jesus Luzardo, LHP HS 5'11" http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/40395496/v532381383

 

Luzardo has the best command but is just coming off TJ surgery.

 

List of all others available still http://m.mlb.com/draft/tracker/#!ft=rank&fv=top

[1992casey]

Lucas Erceg encounters both the wall and the tarp with this catch. A dude near the microphone says "He broke his face!"

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hC2LbdGaVBo

[ZBTMP]

Some encouragement for those lamenting the lack of high upside pitching yesterday. Of coarse, even if lightning strikes, the timeline of the below puts the Cy Young season coming at around 2024, but patience.

 

Notable picks from Rounds 3-10 in recent years include both Cy Young Award winners from 2015. Jake Arrieta was picked in the fifth round in 2007 by the Baltimore Orioles, and Dallas Keuchel was selected by the Houston Astros in the seventh round in 2009.

 

2014 American League Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber was taken in the fourth round by the San Diego Padres in 2007.

[QuevedosTongue]

Analysis by Christopher Crawford on Baseball Prospectus

 

5. Milwaukee Brewers: Corey Ray, OF, Louisville

 

Ray may not be at the top of my draft board, but he is my favorite player in the draft. If that doesn't make sense to you, that's okay. He can flat out hit, and he has underrated pop from the left side. He's also a guy who can steal 30-40 bases, and I give him at least a chance to stick at center. The upside is high, but it's the extremely high floor that makes me love this pick. Good job, Milwaukee.

[ctmyers]

Some encouragement for those lamenting the lack of high upside pitching yesterday. Of coarse, even if lightning strikes, the timeline of the below puts the Cy Young season coming at around 2024, but patience.

 

Notable picks from Rounds 3-10 in recent years include both Cy Young Award winners from 2015. Jake Arrieta was picked in the fifth round in 2007 by the Baltimore Orioles, and Dallas Keuchel was selected by the Houston Astros in the seventh round in 2009.

 

2014 American League Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber was taken in the fourth round by the San Diego Padres in 2007.

 

Also, of the top 30 starters (ERA) in 2015, only nine played for the team they were originally drafted by.

[splitterpfj]

If you want the guy most likely to get a pitching coach fired, Kyle Funkhouser is right there. I wouldn't argue with the pick at all if it's him, but he's as unpredictable as any "name" pitcher can get.

 

If he'll sign, I like HS third baseman Drew Mendoza. I thought he'd be picked by now, which leads me to think it's about the money.

 

If the Brewers want to continue to add power to the system, there's OF Heath Quinn from Samford.

 

I would stay away from middle infielders in this round, because that crop is weak this year - nobody jumps out in this range.

[SRB]

I just don't see Ray as a top 5 type pick but that doesn't mean he'll not be a fine player. When commentators on MLB Network are bringing up a name like Oddibe McDowell as a comparison, geesh. You don't use the 5th pick in the draft for an Oddibe McDowell clone. McDowell had all of 10 wins above replacement his entire career and a career .672 OPS. Now if he becomes the second coming of Ray Lankford, another name that was mentioned, fine.

 

The McDowell comp was given by Harold Reynolds, who I guarantee you knows nothing about Ray and made that comp solely because he thinks Ray and McDowell sort of look alike.

[splitterpfj]

On the Oddibe McDowell stuff ..... yes, Harold said Ray looks like McDowell, but he also said, "In this day and age, when they don't make a player like that try to hit the ball on the ground ...."

 

In that respect, Harold is right. McDowell was a great athlete, an exceptional college player and USA Olympian. Texas brought him in, and tried to make him a front of the order hitter, instead of allowing him to use his skills and become what he might become.

 

They are not the same animal, but in this respect, think of Carlos Gomez when the Twins tried to make him a leadoff hitter - it was a flop. Carlos didn't take off until someone finally told him to go ahead and swing hard.

 

As a physical comp, there's nothing wrong with a McDowell comparison.