2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[MrTPlush]

I want it on record. I really like this pick. Bats that murder the low minors, as I expect he will, can sometimes be traded for that ace pitcher you guys want. You know, like laporta for cc.

 

I understand your thinking. Do not fault it at all.

However, it took more than Laporta for a rental of CC. It also cost Zack Jackson, Rob Bryson and a conditional player to be named later in Michael Brantley...

 

Yah that sounds like something to anger the Ray haters even more. They wanted a cheap ace controllable 6 years in a row. Not to draft an OFer to be a portion of a trade to get 3 months of an ace.

[1992casey]

Thanks for the information, Patrick.

[MadThinker88]

Not sure I follow you here...

 

Lol haven't seen that movie in ages. Great reference! I guess I was rolling with my earlier posts.

 

So did the Germans really bomb Pearl Harbor???

[TheCrew07]

Or the conversation could be whatever the other posters here -- many of whom just may be even as smart as you are -- decide they want to talk about.

 

As for me, I like the approach you describe of looking for a middle-ground projection. But (a) when you say "Ray won't steal 40 bases" that sounds to me like you're denying the possibility, not the likelihood, and you don't know enough to deny the possibility; (b) basing your analysis of Ray's potential for steals on last year seems to me shortsighted, because historically MLB strategic norms about steals have changed rapidly; and © I think you too easily dismissed the poster's reference to Villar, who --whatever else you think of him -- seems like an ordinary player who will steal 40, which makes a tough data point for your argument.

 

I didn't dismiss Villar, I addressed him directly on a variety of levels. If you're contention is that anything can happen because 1 year someone came out of no where to accomplish something significant that's fine, but to me that's an outlier and not statistically relevant. I view Villar's 2016 as more a combination of circumstance than anything else, I think opposing teams have underestimated him as much as I wasn't taking him seriously prior to the season. I sincerely hope Villar proves me wrong, but I don't see him sustaining his success on the base paths as teams will adjust. Carlos Gomez is perhaps the best athlete the Brewers have ever had and he only stole exactly 40 bases once in his entire career.

 

There were 143 position players with more than 500 PAs last season, of that # exactly 3 players stole 40 bases as I pointed out previously. That's .0209 of eligible players or 2.1%. I do not believe Ray to be in the top 2.1% of anything of in MLB, even as a best case, which is why I'm not giving him any realistic chance today of stealing 40 bases. Could he do it in the sense that anything can happen? Sure, but that wasn't the contention of either post I was addressing at the time.

 

If an argument about prospects requires the use of players in the top 10% of MLB, top 2% in a specific category, or top 1% of players all time in support of the conclusion, then it's an argument without foundation and shouldn't have been posited in the first place.

 

Finally, people are certainly free to post whatever they would like within the guidelines of the forum, that's not what I'm challenging now or have been challenging for a while, nor was that the spirit of my post. I'm challenging the "Randy Johnson did this so prospect X could do that", or Clayton Kershaw, or Ryan Braun, or Justin Verlander, or whatever excellent MLB player a poster would choose to use in support of an argument about a prospect. Those arguments are not realistic and lack merit, they are extremist for the sake of being contrary. Those arguments aren't grounded in objectivity, they are simply arguments driven by personal agenda. In terms of Corey Ray I have more respect for posters that previously laid out their objection to a pick than people who will post over the top responses in favor of a pick, or criticize that objection when for the most part they didn't take the time to contribute prior to the selection.

 

There is plenty to like about Corey Ray but there's also plenty to be underwhelmed by depending on your point of view.

[RobDeer 45]

As an earlier poster said, this thread is entertaining. I look forward to the future to see how these guys turn out. I wonder what the % is of pitchers in the first 3 rounds that make an impact at the major league level is compared to hitters? Maybe he's got some numbers that tell him to not take risks on pitching early. Take chances on some pitchers late because they are so tough to predict.

 

Or these were just the 3 highest guys on his board and we are over thinking it all!

[molitor fan]

In depth erceg scouting info...not all that flattering at times

 

http://insidethescoutingtrail.news/lucas-erceg/

[Jenkins5]

In no way was I comparing Ray to Braun, simply crazy to think that Ray doesn't not have the ability to steal 40 bases. I get that few players these days are doing it but doesn't mean he realistically 100% cannot. That is one of his best tools. Where Braun comes in was in he was an example of how even a guy who isn't really considered an elite runner or true threat on bases has stole 30+ before. He is very good but that isn't really his game. It is Ray's though. Brewers are very aggressive & will let him run often (considering CC is still around).

 

Gregmac understand what I was getting at with Villar. Overall, he appears to be an ordinary guy who is given the green light to go whenever. What is to say CC wouldn't give Ray the same opportunity?

 

You state never be able to steal 40 bases as an absolute. Then you discuss how players have random years where they just go off and accomplish something significant..... So you're saying Ray is incapable of having one of those seasons. I contest that and say you are wrong. He has the skills, ability, and manager to do so. I doubt he is a 40 steal guy a season. It's not easy. I see him more in the 25-30 range. However, it is possible that he sneaks up to 40. It is arguably his top tool.

[clancyphile]

Someone posting 44 steals in 44 attempts... well, he's clearly got a plus tool/skillset in that area. He's got speed, and the right instincts on the basepaths. He did show improvement in OBP skills, as well.

 

My bet? He posts some solid numbers over his career, .285 average, 35-40 doubles, 10-12 triples, 15-20 homers, and 35-40 steals a season. Could do a lot worse.

[ZBTMP]

A couple of thoughts:

-The argument for Ray by the scouting department must have been compiling for our analytically-inclined GM to pull the trigger despite the lack of elite stats. While scouting the stat line isnt a robust process, Stearn's moves have shown he places considerable value on player's stats with the highest correlation for future success.

-Ray is athletic enough to have a high ceiling and I'm excited to see what he does in the pro ranks. People love comparisons, but every player is unique in some way. I doubt he had access to the best coaching and facilities on Chicago's south side not to mention the limited season. His progression at Louisville might not be great but his BABIP dropping .060 points a season probably had some luck involved in that if you just focus on the OPS.

-That being said, I'll go on record as "don't like the selection" camp, but its not like Puk and Groome didn't have significant flags. Groome couldnt maintain velocity over starts this spring and Puk has general inconsistencies, wildness, and nagging injuries.

-Erceg's lack of walks against inferior competition scares me. Makes Matt Carpenter seem like an odd comparison to me.

-Disappointing that the Brewers' selections didn't align with Rortvedt and Lux. State doesn't produce much elite talent so it would have been cool to nab one.

[DougJonesChangeUp]

Pretty sure it wasn't 44/44, think it was something like 44/52 SB.

[DHonks]

I don't have a problem with going hitting early in the draft. Most of our last 6 or so drafts have been pitching heavy, especially early. I don't mind taking hitters early and then loading up with arms. Good scouting should be able to find some arms in rounds 3-15 that can contribute. I know you don't draft for position, but I'd like more infielders with potential. We have a lot of outfielders with tools and I'm sure some IF that might get moved to OF. Can't have enough IF.

[MrTPlush]

Pretty sure it wasn't 44/44, think it was something like 44/52 SB.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=corey-ray-1

[ValentinVinaJaha]

Someone posting 44 steals in 44 attempts... well, he's clearly got a plus tool/skillset in that area. He's got speed, and the right instincts on the basepaths. He did show improvement in OBP skills, as well.

 

My bet? He posts some solid numbers over his career, .285 average, 35-40 doubles, 10-12 triples, 15-20 homers, and 35-40 steals a season. Could do a lot worse.

If Corey does that he will have had a special career! I'd LOVE to see that career line for him!

[DHonks]

A couple of thoughts:

-The argument for Ray by the scouting department must have been compiling for our analytically-inclined GM to pull the trigger despite the lack of elite stats. While scouting the stat line isnt a robust process, Stearn's moves have shown he places considerable value on player's stats with the highest correlation for future success.

-Ray is athletic enough to have a high ceiling and I'm excited to see what he does in the pro ranks. People love comparisons, but every player is unique in some way. I doubt he had access to the best coaching and facilities on Chicago's south side not to mention the limited season. His progression at Louisville might not be great but his BABIP dropping .060 points a season probably had some luck involved in that if you just focus on the OPS.

-That being said, I'll go on record as "don't like the selection" camp, but its not like Puk and Groome didn't have significant flags. Groome couldnt maintain velocity over starts this spring and Puk has general inconsistencies, wildness, and nagging injuries.

-Erceg's lack of walks against inferior competition scares me. Makes Matt Carpenter seem like an odd comparison to me.

-Disappointing that the Brewers' selections didn't align with Rortvedt and Lux. State doesn't produce much elite talent so it would have been cool to nab one.

 

Erceg's lack of walks don't bother me. With aluminum bats, a good hitter can expand his zone hitting pitches off the plate. I'll want to see how his discipline translates to the minors first. I may have to drive to Helena in a couple weeks to watch some games.

[DougJonesChangeUp]

Pretty sure it wasn't 44/44, think it was something like 44/52 SB.

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=corey-ray-1

 

I was going off this article (not counting post season play maybe??)

 

"His speed also remains a precious asset, allowing him to swipe 39 bags in 46 attempts."

[1992casey]

Pretty sure it wasn't 44/44, think it was something like 44/52 SB.

There's a discrepancy between the two reports in the Corey Ray post in the Official Draft thread. I'd bet on 44 steals in 52 attempts, but we should probably look for a third site to serve as a tie-breaker.

 

EDIT: I see the Baseball Cube link that TPlush posted says 44/44.

[1992casey]

I was going off this article (not counting post season play maybe??)

 

"His speed also remains a precious asset, allowing him to swipe 39 bags in 46 attempts."

 

This article?

 

2016 MLB Draft Prospects: Corey Ray, Outfielder, University of Louisville

 

The article was written on June 4th. That would seem to coincide with the 44/52 in the report updated on June 7th.

[Jenkins5]

After my irrational, disappointment tantrum, I have came around on Ray. Just so many "sexy" picks right there for us. I trust Stearns, Arnold, Montgomery, and the rest of the guys. They are smart and know what they are doing. Fan of last two picks. You have a high ceiling college guy who could easily boom or bust, those are the guys I want in the system. Feliciano I really like, said other day I wanted a highly drafted HS catcher to develop. Love his bat, age, and his size won't force him off. At 17, there is a chance you can still teach him to catch. With recent international catching prospects signed & Feliciano, we now have an exciting stable to follow in DSL to Helena. Wonder if he starts in Arizona or DSL.

[MrTPlush]

TheCrew:

 

How about you open that data up to maybe the last ten years and you find many players that aren't so amazing stealing 40 bases. You will also find years where 7-10 players were stealing 40 bases. Only using last year as an example is rather silly.

 

Also Jonathan Villar has been a SB threat his entire career. Always on pace for 40+ if given full playing time. It is not a fluke as you are trying to hint at.

[narwhalattack]

While initially I wasn't thrilled about Ray, the only guys I wanted over him were Pint, Groome, and Lewis. Pint got picked before the Brewers, Groome's agent is Scott Boras (I may have a mildly irrational dislike for Boras), and there seem to be some folks who have questions about Lewis.

[Jenkins5]

Webster at Bleacher gave Brewers an A- for there draft. Reds got an A, they had a very nice draft with Senzel, Trammel, Okey. Cards & pirates got B+. Love Cardinals draft....it is very depressing actually. They will turn Jones & Hudson into very productive MLB guys. Perez.... Well hope he bust now.

 

Predictions

Ray to Wisconsin

Erceg to Helena

Feliciano to Arizona (DSL has 4 catchers already)

[Austin Tatious]

Random thoughts:

 

1. In looking at interviews with Ray, he seems like a great kid. You have to be happy about him as a person. He will represent the organization well. He has a great attitude and comes across really well. I heard on the radio that he's friends with Jabari Parker as they went to high school together.

 

2. I will reserve judgment on the Cal 3b. I do like his athleticism at third. This is an organizational need. 3b is really a position you can create a delta with to the opposition. It can be a difference maker spot because there are only so many 3b that can hit and have the athleticism to play there. This is a position I would like to keep cranking on. Right now, Gatewood needs to get better although he's showing flashes. Lara is an unknown but has immense potential. Need to keep working on 3b who can stick there.

 

3. Based on what I read, I like the lottery ticket option with Feliciano due to his athleticism and youth. We've had Lucroy, who is a bona fide stud, but we have not done a great job of developing depth in the next line of catchers since him. This is a premium position, and we need to be continually adding good catching prospects. I like Nottingham and now like this pickup. We signed the international catcher last year who shows promise. In fact, I would not be averse to adding yet another catcher. I don't know if he's still available but the young Utah catcher (names escapes me but I believe his first name may be Payton) might be someone to nab soon.

[DHonks]

One thought is I doubt Jack Z would have taken Ray. At the time, we were always told they looked for a player with an outstanding tool--Rogers' velocity, Fielder's power, Weeks' bat, Braun's bat, etc. not sure he would have passed on Puk's repertoire. Still, I hold back my judgement until later.

[Austin Tatious]

Webster at Bleacher gave Brewers an A- for there draft. Reds got an A, they had a very nice draft with Senzel, Trammel, Okey. Cards & pirates got B+. Love Cardinals draft....it is very depressing actually. They will turn Jones & Hudson into very productive MLB guys. Perez.... Well hope he bust now.

 

Predictions

Ray to Wisconsin

Erceg to Helena

Feliciano to Arizona (DSL has 4 catchers already)

 

Love the Reds' and Cardinals' drafts. The Reds may have added 3 to their top 10 prospects. You can't beat that. The Cardinals probably added two. Hudson reminds me of the way they nabbed Lance Lynn (I believe from the same school). Perez is polarizing and in bad taste but he's potentially a high ceiling guy considering he was discussed at the top of the draft prior to his failed test. Furthermore, the Cards have drafted Miller, Lynn, Wacha et al high in the draft. Now, with that track record, you can see what they are doing and feel good about it if you're a fan of their team. The Cards have a way of restocking their team without totally collapsing.

[MKE81]

UL site has Ray with 44-52 SB numbers as well so that's probably the correct number. I first saw film on Ray yesterday after we selected him. Reminds me of the Trent Clark pick. Both lefty, and play and will try to stick in CF but very well could be moving to a corner spot. Both will hit for solid average, get on base, have some power and will steal bases. Clark being more of pure hitter while Ray with more power and speed. But the irrational thought process of this board continues to boggle my mind, which is why I've mainly stuck to looking at the minor league box scores and nothing else. But the draft is a big thing so I had to click on this thread. Not surprised one bit by the remarks and tone on here. Ray, like Clark, is never going to be a sexy pick. Ever. They both do everything "well" but aren't elite in anything (one can argue Ray is elite in speed/base running though). There is absolutely nothing wrong with this. And both killed it for Team USA. I don't think I read one mock where he was predicted to be selected lower than 5. He's a consensus elite player in this draft. I understand the Brewers need elite starting pitching but there were so many red flags around Puk, Groome that it's not worth the gamble when someone like Ray is sitting on your doorstep. It's not a safe pick, it's a smart pick. Load the organization with talent and let the cream rise.

 

The Cardinals have been playoff caliber year in and year out lately and they don't have superstar position players - they have players that do most, or all, things well. They're solid all-around players who impact the game. Ben Zobrist, Matt Carpenter, etc don't have one elite tool yet they contribute mightily to the team's success. I'll take that all day every day regardless of the position played. Not many great starting pitchers are found in the first round anyway. Stack your board and draft according to it