2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[LouisEly]

bleacher report draft tracker is up to date

I can't find it on their MLB page - link please?

[brewmann04]

This kid is a hitter but some think he will not stay behind the plate

[gregmag]

With the No. 75 pick in the #mlbdraft, Brewers take Puerto Rico HS C Mario Feliciano: http://ow.ly/2pvQ30172cw

Don't be desperate. The man, he ain't so hard to understand.

[LouisEly]

Jon Duplantier still available...

[baybeachbum1]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2645269-mlb-draft-tracker-2016-live-rounds-1-2-results-and-picks

 

here you go

[splitterpfj]

With the top three picks spent on bats, you have to think the top player back in any Lucroy trade will be a pitcher. We should discuss that in the trade rumors forum, but it was worth a mention here.

 

I'm surprised the Crew didn't take at least one pitcher, this certainly looks like an orchestrated focus on bats, you can't tell me there wasn't a pitcher who fit the bill at any of those three spots, I won't believe it.

[MrTPlush]

Well Feliciano is a lot like Erceg. A guy who may have a lot of offensive upside, but a big question mark.

 

On the bright side we have a good 5-6 to process Feliciano as he is way off from being ready.

[brewcrewdue80]

With the last two picks you would think both below draft slot. Saving for 4th or 5th selection? Just for who? Last year I was at least happy with Kirby and Ponce and Demi O especially. These last two selections after the disappointment of 1st, have me down on this draft big time. Still no pitcher.

[Ennder]

I believe Ray's ceiling is that of Jackie Bradley Jr. and I was never really all that high on him when he was drafted. Definitely not who I would have drafted but it is what it is.

 

Fair comparison, only he has real speed and Bradley never did. So add 20 steals or so to Bradley and you get a pretty fair comp. keep in mind the fact Jackie Bradley Jr. is a top 30 position player by WAR right now and was a 2.4 win player in half a season last year. You could do much worse. That is very clear all star performance.

[LouisEly]

With the top three picks spent on bats, you have to think the top player back in any Lucroy trade will be a pitcher. We should discuss that in the trade rumors forum, but it was worth a mention here.

 

I'm surprised the Crew didn't take at least one pitcher, this certainly looks like an orchestrated focus on bats, you can't tell me there wasn't a pitcher who fit the bill at any of those three spots, I won't believe it.

As I mentioned before, the Cubs didn't get to where they are by spending their top picks on pitching.

 

And while they spent a lot on Lester, it didn't cost a lot to acquire Arrieta, Hammel, and Lackey.

 

What if the Brewers had kept Sveum as manager in 2009, and Sveum hired his buddy Bosio as pitching coach...

[MrTPlush]

With the last two picks you would think both below draft slot. Saving for 4th or 5th selection? Just for who? Last year I was at least happy with Kirby and Ponce and Demi O especially. These last two selections after the disappointment of 1st, have me down on this draft big time. Still no pitcher.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if early talks in Lucroy trades have given them confidence to acquire a pitcher. They also could be hitting the draft hard for hitters and then turning to summer trades for a focus on pitchers.

 

If only I could go in Stearn's mind.

[And That]

Don't think Erceg is too much below slot, if at all.

[MrTPlush]

Don't think Erceg is too much below slot, if at all.

 

Where is he going to go? Back to JuCo?

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Not sure I follow you here...

 

Lol haven't seen that movie in ages. Great reference! I guess I was rolling with my earlier posts.

[Jenkins5]

From minorleagueball

"Feliciano is a lottery ticket that someone will pop higher than expected. It may be unlikely he sticks at catcher, but he has some impressive raw power. He's also one of the youngest players in the draft, as he will be 17 years, 6 months old at draft time. Put it all together, and he could be 5 spots too low on this list, and gone by the end of the second round."

[MilwaukeeBeers]

bleacher report draft tracker is up to date

I can't find it on their MLB page - link please?

Today is over but this should get you up to speed. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2645306-mlb-draft-2016-live-round-1-2-results-and-reaction

 

I should really refresh more often...

[trwi7]

We drafted a player that won't turn 18 until November 20th. Clearly we're planning on a 5 year rebuild at minimum!

 

And LouisEly, is there a show more tab below pick 60? That's what happened to me, just click that and the rest of the picks should show up.

[baybeachbum1]

There was a show more tab in the first round for me, but not in the second round - it was just stuck.

[Eye Black]

Brewers add to their list of all-time competative balance lottery picks...

 

2013 - Tucker Neuhaus (#72 selection / Comp Rd B)

2014 - Jake Gatewood (#41 selection / Comp Rd A)

2015 - Nathan Kirby (#40 selection / Comp Rd A)

2016 - Mario Feliciano (#75 selection / Comp Rd B)

[1992casey]

And LouisEly, is there a show more tab below pick 60? That's what happened to me, just click that and the rest of the picks should show up.

 

That page wasn't updating for a while, but it's working now. It was showing picks 1-60, then it had an alphabetical list of names who hadn't yet been picked.

[TheCrew07]

While I was ridiculous, irrational, and not overly happy with the Ray, one thing I do love about him is he is outstanding on the bases & at stealing. Stealing is about timing, anticipation, explosiveness, and speed helps. Ray is an athlete but doesn't run a 6.3-6.4 but he has amazing instincts, jumps, and smarts when it comes to stealing. Villar is leading MLB in steals & it not because he is so fast but he has those skills. I think Ray could steal 40. Braun has stolen 30 & 33 before.... Do you feel he possesses that much better ability than Ray on the bases?

 

In my original "who I would take post" I said I liked Corey Ray, though I'm not enamored with the pick because I wanted pitching, but I always want pitching. However, I'm not poo pooing the pick, there's quite a bit to like about Ray as a baseball player.

 

He's not going to steal 40 bases and if he makes MLB the line-up will be completely dissimilar to what Braun had. I really wish posters would quit comparing prospects to the best players in the game, past and present, it's happening all over the message board these days. I've said many times that I don't deal in best case scenarios for players, I'm going to project a middle ground for any particular player until they prove to be elite, like a Gallardo or Braun.

 

I remember similar arguments being made about Eric Farris... he was going to steal 40 bases because he was so smart and Milwaukee didn't have a long term 2B. I made the same arguments about him as I'm making now, it's way too early to predict an absolute best case before a player is even in AA. As to Villar, he's the SS version of Carlos Gomez, I find his continual mental mistakes infuriating, I don't think Ray is that kind of player and while I get what you are saying, I would have looked for a player with a similar all around skill set to make the argument with. I understand Villar is currently leading the league, but I don't find Ray and Villar similar from a make up perspective at all.

 

Instead of wild speculation the conversation should be; how many players in the modern game are stealing 40 bases per year and how does Ray's skill set compare? The answer to that question was there were 3 last year. Is Corey Ray in the same class as Dee Gordon or Billy Hamilton? I could see a Charlie Blackmon argument, but then the next 2 questions become what kind of offensive team will he be playing for and how often will he be on base? I don't think any of us realistically know the answers to either right now.

 

My gut feeling is that if Ray works out to be about average in MLB he'll steal 20-30 bases a year, probably eclipsing 30 in his peak seasons, but he doesn't strike me as special in any particular way other than his all around athleticism. I use "special" somewhat generously because he's not on the same level athletically as Brewer prospect Monte Harrison. Nor do I think he's a sure thing to be an every day MLB player, I always worry if players are going to hit enough.

[colbyjack]

Some free and subscribe stuff from PG on the top 3 picks (hard to argue with Ray, Erceg was one of my personal faves and Feliciano was a player on the rise that has good value where they took him):

 

Corey Ray feature: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=12484

 

Corey Ray - OF

 

Height/Weight: 6-0/190

Bats/Throws: L/L

Birthdate: Sept. 22, 1994

College: Louisville

Hometown: Chicago, Ill.

Projected Draft Round: 1

 

Upon graduating from Simeon High School (Ill.) in 2013 Ray has seen his draft stock rise at an exponential rate, particularly over the last spring and a half with a strong summer tour with Team USA mixed in between. Perhaps part of the reason for Ray’s rise has been the 20 pounds of strength he added to his frame since stepping foot on campus, but regardless of the reason there hasn’t been a hotter prospect for the 2016 draft through the first five weeks quite like Ray.

 

A 33rd round pick out of high school, Ray will be long gone come the 33rd overall pick this June as he has the potential to be the first position player to come off the board, college or prep. To follow up the breakout type sophomore season that he put together at Louisville (.325/.389/.543 with 11 home runs), Ray joined the Collegiate National Team and was the talk of team among scouts, even on a loaded team of prospects, courtesy of his five-tool potential.

 

A plus-runner, Ray is able to impact a game with his speed both in the outfield, where he shows solid routes, and on the bases where he’s 23-for-26 in attempts this spring. And despite playing left field both last summer (Florida’s Buddy Reed patrolled center) and this spring, there’s plenty of optimism that he’ll be able to play center at the next level, only further enhancing his overall future potential as he shows top-of-the-line athleticism and closing speed to either gap.

 

The bat might just be the loudest tool for Ray and the lefthanded hitter is showing he can use it for both average and power this spring while cutting back on his strikeouts and taking his walks with 10 over the first 20 games as compared to just 24 last spring in 65 games. In the box he shows a willingness to use all fields and is able to thanks to his loose wrists and quick hands which help generate solid present bat speed through the zone. Through the opening weeks of the season there wasn’t a hotter prospect in all of the country as he’s not only flashed some power but has done so at a consistent rate, already connecting for six home runs while adding another six doubles.

 

 

Lucas Erceg – 3B

 

Height/Weight: 6-3/205

Bats/Throws: L/R

Birthdate: May 1, 1995

College: Menlo (Calif., NAIA)

Hometown: Campbell, Calif.

Projected Draft Round: 1S-3

 

Lucas Erceg has been drumming up significant draft interest at the NAIA level this year after spending his first two years in college with the Cal Bears, hitting .303-11-42 during his sophomore year while routinely providing big hits for a team that nearly advanced to Super Regional play. Academic reasons forced him out of Berkeley to look for somewhere else to play, and after enjoying a big season at the plate a year ago he’s putting up even bigger numbers this year.

 

At 6-foot-3, 205-pounds, Erceg has a lean and long athletic build, with an overall physical presence similar to that of Blake Rutherford. Erceg’s frame also has the ability to add more weight and muscle, as he could maintain his loose, athletic actions with another 15-20 pounds.

 

Defensively at third he moves well laterally and displays good instincts with solid first-step quickness and reactions. Since he also serves as one of his team’s closing options out of the bullpen he has more than enough arm strength for any position on the field, including third base, but he may be a better fit on an outfield corner down the road with right field being the more likely destination.

 

At the plate Erceg has a smooth, rhythmic and overall good looking lefthanded swing, incorporating a big leg kick to generate power from his lower half. He takes big boy hacks at the plate and does a nice job incorporating his BP swing into games. There’s a lot of movement between his lower half and in his hands pre-swing, but he gets all of those parts where they need to be on time and shows very good strength and extension in his swing.

 

With his big lefthanded stroke most of his contact, and power, is to his pull side. He’s having a big year at the plate, with a .310/.351/.647 triple slash line, and 29 of his 58 hits (12 doubles, 17 home runs) have gone for extra bases. Additionally, he continues to make extremely good contact as he has only struck out 14 times in 187 at-bats, although he has also only walked 11 times, showing a desire to swing the bat, although he does exhibit the ability, and importance, of taking pitches while waiting to get something he can drive.

 

The level of play is a big question, and how well his talents will translate against higher level pitching, but the swing and overall offensive potential is legitimate. He was named the top prospect last summer in the California Collegiate League and continues to draw big scouting crowds with some reports indicating that he could be selected in the first round of this year’s draft given his lefthanded power, which is always a valued commodity.

 

 

Mario Feliciano – C/OF

 

Height/Weight: 6-1/195

Bats/Throws: R/R

Birthdate: Nov. 20, 1998

High School: Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy

Hometown: Hato Ray, Puerto Rico

Travel Team: FTB Mizuno

Projected Draft Round: 2-3

 

The prototypical Puerto Rican catcher can best be summarized as resembling one of the Molina Brothers; a wide lower half, loose actions with very good one-spot quickness, a big throwing arm and polished receiving skills. Plus, they are definitely "defense over offense" in their skill and tool set.

 

Fast rising Puerto Rican Mario Feliciano is pretty much the exact opposite of that.

 

At an extra strong but well proportioned 6-foot-1, 195-pounds, Feliciano has a mature build that would look at home on a football field in Texas or Pennsylvania. He has surprisingly good straight-ahead speed and has run a 6.8 60-yard dash, but his shifting and blocking behind the plate are not quick and athletic enough to be called one of his best tools. And while Feliciano has a strong arm that is notably accurate, it grades out as a 50 (average) tool on the professional scouting scale. There are any number of other positions on the field that Feliciano could be playable at defensively with his athleticism and tools, not always something one can say about a catcher.

 

The big difference right now, though, is that Feliciano is definitely an "offense over defense" present talent. Here are the hitting notes from Feliciano's 2015 PG National Showcase report:

 

Righthanded hitter, big leg lift trigger but gets his foot down in time for the most part, big lower half coil, can keep his hands back even when opening early, pull and lift approach, swings hard and has very good bat speed, gets extended well when timed, big power when squared and has a feel for the barrel, impressive hitting prospect.

 

Some prospects are top-level hitting prospects because they have well constructed and repeatable hitting mechanics that have been honed through innumerable swings and repetitions. Feliciano is a top-level hitting prospect as much because of his combination of raw strength driven bat speed and aggression in trying to hit the ball very, very hard as anything. He's a "bat speed over mechanics" hitter who simply looks to crush the ball as hard and often as he can. And that definitely works for him.

[MadThinker88]

I want it on record. I really like this pick. Bats that murder the low minors, as I expect he will, can sometimes be traded for that ace pitcher you guys want. You know, like laporta for cc.

 

I understand your thinking. Do not fault it at all.

However, it took more than Laporta for a rental of CC. It also cost Zack Jackson, Rob Bryson and a conditional player to be named later in Michael Brantley...

[MrTPlush]

TheCrew:

 

I'm not sure what your point is. If Corey Ray hits .280/.360 he has more than enough speed/skill to steal 40 bases if the Brewers give him the opportunities. That is all I said. If you want to assume he is average I agree something around 20-30 is more realistic.

 

Obviously if he doesn't hit well that won't happen.

[gregmag]

While I was ridiculous, irrational, and not overly happy with the Ray, one thing I do love about him is he is outstanding on the bases & at stealing. Stealing is about timing, anticipation, explosiveness, and speed helps. Ray is an athlete but doesn't run a 6.3-6.4 but he has amazing instincts, jumps, and smarts when it comes to stealing. Villar is leading MLB in steals & it not because he is so fast but he has those skills. I think Ray could steal 40. Braun has stolen 30 & 33 before.... Do you feel he possesses that much better ability than Ray on the bases?

 

In my original "who I would take post" I said I liked Corey Ray, though I'm not enamored with the pick because I wanted pitching, but I always want pitching. However, I'm not poo pooing the pick, there's quite a bit to like about Ray as a baseball player.

 

He's not going to steal 40 bases and if he makes MLB the line-up will be completely dissimilar to what Braun had. I really wish posters would quit comparing prospects to the best players in the game, past and present, it's happening all over the message board these days. I've said many times that I don't deal in best case scenarios for players, I'm going to project a middle ground for any particular player until they prove to be elite, like a Gallardo or Braun.

 

I remember similar arguments being made about Eric Farris... he was going to steal 40 bases because he was so smart and Milwaukee didn't have a long term 2B. I made the same arguments about him as I'm making now, it's way too early to predict an absolute best case before a player is even in AA. As to Villar, he's the SS version of Carlos Gomez, I find his continual mental mistakes infuriating, I don't think Ray is that kind of player and while I get what you are saying, I would have looked for a player with a similar all around skill set to make the argument with. I understand Villar is currently leading the league, but I don't find Ray and Villar similar from a make up perspective at all.

 

Instead of wild speculation the conversation should be; how many players in the modern game are stealing 40 bases per year and how does Ray's skill set compare? The answer to that question was there were 3 last year. Is Corey Ray in the same class as Dee Gordon or Billy Hamilton? I could see a Charlie Blackmon argument, but then the next 2 questions become what kind of offensive team will he be playing for and how often will he be on base? I don't think any of us realistically know the answers to either right now.

 

My gut feeling is that if Ray works out to be about average in MLB he'll steal 20-30 bases a year, probably eclipsing 30 in his peak seasons, but he doesn't strike me as special in any particular way other than his all around athleticism. I use "special" somewhat generously because he's not on the same level athletically as Brewer prospect Monte Harrison. Nor do I think he's a sure thing to be an every day MLB player, I always worry if players are going to hit enough.

Or the conversation could be whatever the other posters here -- many of whom just may be even as smart as you are -- decide they want to talk about.

 

As for me, I like the approach you describe of looking for a middle-ground projection. But (a) when you say "Ray won't steal 40 bases" that sounds to me like you're denying the possibility, not the likelihood, and you don't know enough to deny the possibility; (b) basing your analysis of Ray's potential for steals on last year seems to me shortsighted, because historically MLB strategic norms about steals have changed rapidly; and © I think you too easily dismissed the poster's reference to Villar, who --whatever else you think of him -- seems like an ordinary player who will steal 40, which makes a tough data point for your argument.