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2016 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 6-20

1992casey
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WV Brew Draft Eligible

WV Brew

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Horn was the 34th rated prospect overall by MLB. Commitment to Cal which is why nobody else took him. Brewers probably cannot sign him but if negotiations go wrong with other draftees, maybe they could put something together.
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1992casey Milwaukee Brewers

1992casey

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Just a reminder that any "play by play" starting with Round 21 should into the Rounds 21-40 topic. I figured I should mention that because it feels like we're robots on an assembly line.

 

Of course, any dissection, digestion, and discussion should go into the thread that fits.

That’s the only thing Chicago’s good for: to tell people where Wisconsin is.

[align=right]-- Sigmund Snopek[/align]

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WV Brew Draft Eligible

WV Brew

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Even with underslot deals it seems highly improbable that they'd be able to come up with that.

 

Yeah, I don't expect him to sign but he might have been that ace pitcher some people wanted in this draft.

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clancyphile Carolina Mudcats

clancyphile

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Even with underslot deals it seems highly improbable that they'd be able to come up with that.

 

So, go over the cap.

 

Otherwise, it's a wasted pick.

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trwi7 Nashville Sounds

trwi7

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Even with underslot deals it seems highly improbable that they'd be able to come up with that.

 

So, go over the cap.

 

Otherwise, it's a wasted pick.

 

We can only go like $480,000 over our cap before we lose a 1st round pick. That would be really dumb and no, it wasn't a wasted pick.

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trwi7 Nashville Sounds

trwi7

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It was indeed a wasted pick. Does it matter? Likely not

 

I mean, not really. What are you taking in the 20th round, some senior college player that's just roster filler when you have 20 more rounds for that or an upside pick that probably won't sign but you draft him and offer him say $750,000 and dare him to turn it down. Worst case is he says no, best case is you got a top two round talent in the 20th round.

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brewcrewdue80 ACL Brewers

brewcrewdue80

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Horn was the 34th rated prospect overall by MLB. Commitment to Cal which is why nobody else took him. Brewers probably cannot sign him but if negotiations go wrong with other draftees, maybe they could put something together.

 

If negotiations break down with any of the first 10 round selections, the team also loses the draft pool allotted to that pick. So say 1.7mil on Erceg who doesn't sign is lost. But the pick is comped for next years draft.

 

 

Why select him? How many players do the Brewers need to fill their minors? Keep in mind they are likely adding at least 5 or more come trade deadline. By drafting Horn though, like Everett last year, you can likely sit down and discuss for awhile and get in some good graces if you happen to want to redraft him 2-4years from now.

 

 

Edit add: oh also with the draft experience and selection, I'd assume Horn can share to his Cal teammates how great it was to get selected by Milw, pay a visit all that good treatment. Next Year, a senior or Junior from Cal is up for draft and Milwaukee selects him....There's some good faith in the lead up.

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MrTPlush Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

MrTPlush

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It was indeed a wasted pick. Does it matter? Likely not

 

I mean, not really. What are you taking in the 20th round, some senior college player that's just roster filler when you have 20 more rounds for that or an upside pick that probably won't sign but you draft him and offer him say $750,000 and dare him to turn it down. Worst case is he says no, best case is you got a top two round talent in the 20th round.

 

It was wasted. He won't sign and I am sure the Brewers are aware of that. You can keep dreaming on that sliver of hope he signs, but when was the last time a player did that? There have been many players to have success at the MLB level despite being drafted 20+. Below are just some of the names I uncovered:

 

2000:

 

Jose Bautista, 3B, Pirates, 599th pick (20th round)

 

2005:

 

Sergio Romo, P, Giants, 852nd pick (28th round)

 

2008:

 

Tanner Roark, P, Rangers, 753rd pick (25th round).

 

2009:

 

After St. Louis snagged Carpenter, it also stole current closer Trevor Rosenthal (21st round) and first baseman Matt Adams (23rd) in what has to be one of the best late-Draft runs in recent memory.

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MrTPlush Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

MrTPlush

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There have been many players to have success at the MLB level despite being drafted 20+.

Good thing the Brewers had 20 other picks in the 20+ category this year.

 

And your point? Like I said the chances of a 20th round pick making an impact is little, but the Brewers assured themselves it wouldn't just by picking him. I will take any small chance I can to get talent.

 

Do I care they wasted that slim chance? Not really, but it doesn't change the fact they indeed did waste a pick. Probably the equivalent of that time you were too lazy to pick up a penny off the floor and instead vacuumed it up. Could have been a valuable error coin worth a lot more than a penny...one will never know though.

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trwi7 Nashville Sounds

trwi7

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It was indeed a wasted pick. Does it matter? Likely not

 

I mean, not really. What are you taking in the 20th round, some senior college player that's just roster filler when you have 20 more rounds for that or an upside pick that probably won't sign but you draft him and offer him say $750,000 and dare him to turn it down. Worst case is he says no, best case is you got a top two round talent in the 20th round.

 

It was wasted. He won't sign and I am sure the Brewers are aware of that. You can keep dreaming on that sliver of hope he signs, but when was the last time a player did that? There have been many players to have success at the MLB level despite being drafted 20+. Below are just some of the names I uncovered:

 

2000:

 

Jose Bautista, 3B, Pirates, 599th pick (20th round)

 

2005:

 

Sergio Romo, P, Giants, 852nd pick (28th round)

 

2008:

 

Tanner Roark, P, Rangers, 753rd pick (25th round).

 

2009:

 

After St. Louis snagged Carpenter, it also stole current closer Trevor Rosenthal (21st round) and first baseman Matt Adams (23rd) in what has to be one of the best late-Draft runs in recent memory.

 

So you managed to name 5 players in the last 10+ years, one of which bounced around between 5 teams and didn't become a decent player until he was 29? Yeah, I'll take my chances on changing the mind of a highly ranked high school player over some the <1% chance that some 20th round college player eventually turns into a good player.

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And That Nashville Sounds

And That

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but the Brewers assured themselves it wouldn't just by picking him.

Incorrect. They were hedging against one of their top picks not signing for some reason. Corey Ray suffers a career-ending injury next week? Here's your payday, Jared Horn.

 

The smattering of successful players drafted 20+ does not make hedging a bad strategy. It's very smart business. And like I said, they had 20 other 20+ round picks this year to get the next Trevor Rosenthal, or whomever.

@YouKnowAndThat | Almost, Tim Dell
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MrTPlush Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

MrTPlush

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but the Brewers assured themselves it wouldn't just by picking him.

Incorrect. They were hedging against one of their top picks not signing for some reason. Corey Ray suffers a career-ending injury next week? Here's your payday, Jared Horn.

 

The smattering of successful players drafted 20+ does not make hedging a bad strategy. It's very smart business. And like I said, they had 20 other 20+ round picks this year to get the next Trevor Rosenthal, or whomever.

 

What they are hedging against is if Corey Ray were to have a major issue. So major he would be willing to take a deal underslot of at least $3mil to give Horn what he wants(is that what someone mentioned he wanted?). I guess a Dylan Covey type scenario could put that into play.

 

A career ending injury would be bad because Corey Ray wouldn't sign at all. Which last time I checked meant we would lose the bonus pool money allocated to that draft slot. Which would then make signing Horn impossible.

 

Mpst teams do it at some point in the draft, though using the 20th round pick seems a bit higher than I'd expect a team to draft a guy asking for that much money. At the end of the day hopefully that scenario making such a signing possible won't happen seeing it would mean bad news for Corey Ray.

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