BP Milwaukee article on "The Rebuild"

[3and2Fastball]

Isan Diaz has only had 156 AB's in A Ball and is about to turn 20 years old this week. Time will tell, and it is way too early to pass judgement on him.

 

What happens at the trade deadline this year will tell us a lot. Stearns has a lot of pieces he can move and it will be fascinating to see who gets moved and (of course) who we get in return.

 

This June (The Draft) and July (The Trade Deadline) are the biggest months in the early stages of the Stearns rebuild.

[CheezWizHed]

The team is worse than last year -on pace for 66 wins - and the farm system has under performed. Yes it's too early to give Stearns a grade but based off the non draft tools it sure isn't great.

 

As other's mentioned, most of Stearn's trades (Khris Davis, Adam Lind, Segura) were mainly to bring back future talent because its not about winning this year. But if you are taking last year's record in account, don't forget about DM trading away Fiers, Gomez, Ramirez and Parra last year too. They were all a big part of our win total last year too. And all of those were for future talent, too.

 

Villar is what we all thought he would be when he arrived in Milwaukee; a placeholder for the postion until Arcia arrives.

 

You are correct that was the consensus opinion when he arrived. But I think he is more than just a placeholder now. If he can keep up his current level of offense, I can see him easily taking the starting 2B or 3B position when Arcia comes up. And be the backup SS also. Sneed was one of my favorite underrated pitchers (for the mustache alone, but also for performance). But this was an excellent trade.

 

Not every one of Stearn's trades is going to grade out as a win. No GM bats 1.000. But I like his approach. He is looking under every rock for adding players, even if they are long-shots. He is taking varied approaches to trades in an effort to find the best talent (Lind's trade grew on me, just because it was so unexpected). Time will tell if he is a good GM. But I certainly like the early approach.

 

Certainly, the biggest two weapons a GM has is still an open question for Stearns: FA and Draft. Technically, he managed FA last year, but with the mode we are in, signing Chris Carter doesn't qualify as an indication of how he will use it in the future.

[joepepsi]

Villar should be penciled in at starting 2B in 2017. He's a switch hitter with speed, good glove and on base skills. Gennett still can't hit lefties, is below average in the field, doesn't run that well, poor on base skills, and arbitration eligible after this season. Villar isn't eligible until 2018 and a year younger.

[QuevedosTongue]

You are correct that was the consensus opinion when he arrived. But I think he is more than just a placeholder now. If he can keep up his current level of offense, I can see him easily taking the starting 2B or 3B position when Arcia comes up. And be the backup SS also. Sneed was one of my favorite underrated pitchers (for the mustache alone, but also for performance). But this was an excellent trade.

 

Not every one of Stearn's trades is going to grade out as a win. No GM bats 1.000. But I like his approach. He is looking under every rock for adding players, even if they are long-shots. He is taking varied approaches to trades in an effort to find the best talent (Lind's trade grew on me, just because it was so unexpected). Time will tell if he is a good GM. But I certainly like the early approach.

 

Certainly, the biggest two weapons a GM has is still an open question for Stearns: FA and Draft. Technically, he managed FA last year, but with the mode we are in, signing Chris Carter doesn't qualify as an indication of how he will use it in the future.

 

I'm not sold on Villar being more than a replacement level utility guy yet, although he has shown promise. He won't block Arcia, but Villar may have value as a filler at 3B, possibly an everyday 2B. I think, ultimately, he'll be more of a utility player. Being one of the better players on a 65 win team doesn't mean he's actually any good. He's on pace to be worth 1.5-2 WARP, which is okay, but hardly much of a difference maker.

 

I totally agree with you on Stearns approach. Churning the bottom of the 40-man, looking for incremental improvements and taking chances on players that are talented but flawed is exactly what he should be doing. It's likely that few of them will become productive, but the risk is virtually zero on most of these moves.

[tmwiese55]

Man some of you guys are downers and haters. If Villar keeps doing what he's doing he's for sure a starting infielder at the big league level, apparently to some though if you're not a superstar then you're just replacement level. You're talking about this guy like you should be someone like Hernan Perez or Betancourt. What more could you reasonably expect? Don't get me wrong, it's still a little early but so far how can everyone not be very happy with this guy especially after watching the garbage we've trotted out at all 3 infield positions the last few years (possible exception of 3B before Rammy deteriorated)? But combining last year's ABs and this years he's up to around 300 ABs of solid production at age 24-25. I don't see anything special on D but doesn't look like a liability and is near tops in the league at SBs, just needs to tone down some of the aggression in that regard.

 

Move him to an easier position like 2B and you might have something for a few years until hopefully some of the lower level guys are ready because as of now the only one close to me is Arcia

[3and2Fastball]

Man some of you guys are downers and hater. If Villar keeps doing what he's doing he's for sure a starting infielder at the big league level, apparently to some though if you're not a superstar then you're just replacement level. You're talking about this guy like you should be someone like Hernan Perez or Betancourt. What more could you reasonably expect? Don't get me wrong, it's still a little early but so far how can everyone not be very happy with this guy especially after watching the garbage we've trotted out at all 3 infield positions the last few years (possible exception of 3B before Rammy deteriorated)? But combining last year's ABs and this years he's up to around 300 ABs of solid production at age 24-25. I don't see anything special on D but doesn't look like a liability and is near tops in the league at SBs, just needs to tone down some of the aggression in that regard.

 

Move him to an easier position like 2B and you might have something for a few years until hopefully some of the lower level guys are ready because as of now the only one close to me is Arcia

 

You make so much sense that you should change your username to "Voice of Reason". Seriously

 

Amen to what you wrote. Villar is one of the big success stories so far. A switch-hitter who gets on base with plus baserunning skills who can play 5 defensive positions? He is a big asset to the team moving forward

[jerichoholicninja]

Man some of you guys are downers and hater. If Villar keeps doing what he's doing he's for sure a starting infielder at the big league level, apparently to some though if you're not a superstar then you're just replacement level. You're talking about this guy like you should be someone like Hernan Perez or Betancourt. What more could you reasonably expect? Don't get me wrong, it's still a little early but so far how can everyone not be very happy with this guy especially after watching the garbage we've trotted out at all 3 infield positions the last few years (possible exception of 3B before Rammy deteriorated)? But combining last year's ABs and this years he's up to around 300 ABs of solid production at age 24-25. I don't see anything special on D but doesn't look like a liability and is near tops in the league at SBs, just needs to tone down some of the aggression in that regard.

 

Move him to an easier position like 2B and you might have something for a few years until hopefully some of the lower level guys are ready because as of now the only one close to me is Arcia

 

You make so much sense that you should change your username to "Voice of Reason". Seriously

 

Amen to what you wrote. Villar is one of the big success stories so far. A switch-hitter who gets on base with plus baserunning skills who can play 5 defensive positions? He is a big asset to the team moving forward

 

Yes. I can't understand how some people aren't thinking much of Villar and then are also down on the Segura trade. Jean was trash for all but a few hundred at bats here. He goes to Arizona and he's had another couple hundred great at bats but he still has the same terrible approach. He's not a Simmons level defender so his terrible offense doesn't make him a valuable player.

[monty57]

A switch-hitter who gets on base with plus baserunning skills who can play 5 defensive positions?

 

...who is still in his pre-arby years. Lot of extra value in that.

 

I think the author of the article hit the nail on the head. The Brewers are using every avenue available to build a better future. The draft is certainly one of their tools, but equally important are the multitude of other ways they are adding to the system. It is far more valuable for the Brewers to hit on a few pick-ups (who add a few wins and "cost us" the #1 overall pick), than it is for all of their pick-ups to stink, netting us the #1 pick. We're still going to get a good draft pick, and the added value we can get from someone like Carter should more than make up for the relative value lost falling from say the 1st to the 5th draft pick.

 

We got Carter for nothing, and he can either be traded or held on to. We got Villar for a minimal cost, and as noted above he has proven valuable. Broxton stunk when he was here, but then tore up AAA, so hopefully we have something there. Kirk N. has proven to be a decent placeholder, who can transition to a solid backup (if not traded) when Phillips arrives. The list can go on. Stearns wasn't looking for Babe Ruth in any of these deals, he was trying to upgrade the overall talent level in the franchise as a whole, and I think he did.

 

Stearns didn't trade away much of value, and in return received many years of service time for a lot of players. Most may not turn out, but some will, and those that do will make up much of your future Brewer teams. He's holding out for a mountain of gold for Lucroy, and hopefully that pays off. Lucroy has been doing everything he can to make his value go up, and that could make one of those teams that wouldn't bite at Stearns' off-season price tag give in and pay up to get him.

 

Coming off back surgery, Braun probably wasn't tradeable this offseason. For those that would like to see him traded, the best hope is for a productive season where he is reasonably productive. If we get that this year, Stearns will probably be able to trade him next offseason.

 

As the author stated, the Brewers are in the early stages of a rebuild of the entire franchise, in an attempt to continually have talent arriving at the MLB level for many years to come. To do that, you add guys at all levels, and continue to add guys any chance you get. I like what I have seen so far.

[And That]

Villar's defense has been better than I thought it would be, though I'd still call it modestly below average. He seems to have a penchant for mental lapses on easy-ish defensive plays, and his range and arm aren't good enough to overlook those lapses. He might profile better as a third baseman where he won't have as much time to think about the slow ground balls coming at him. His walk rate has been a nice surprise as well.

 

That said, he has an unsustainable high BABIP and his power hasn't shown up too much yet. Probably related to that, he's not making much hard contact (and hasn't in his brief MLB career). I also wouldn't say his ability to play multiple positions gives him a lot of excess value, at least until he proves he can improve as a defender. I mean, Yuni could play five positions too.

 

I'm still undecided as to whether he's a long-term piece or not, at least as a starter.

[3and2Fastball]

I also wouldn't say his ability to play multiple positions gives him a lot of excess value, at least until he proves he can improve as a defender. I mean, Yuni could play five positions too.

.

 

Throwing around the "Y" word?! C'mon now. Villar looks like Ozzie Smith compared to Yuni B. Villar, from all accounts, is much better at 2B, 3B, LF, RF than SS, but the fact that he is playing a fairly decent SS proves his value (to me at least) as a future "Supersub"/Utility player or a starting 2B/3B who can give you a game or 2 at SS when Arcia needs a day off.

 

Yuni B's extremely below average level of range at SS/2B is a poor comparison. He was a replacement level defensive 3B and fairly competent at 1B (though he couldn't hit well enough to be a MLB 1B)

[And That]

Wasn't comparing the two, just noting that the ability to play five positions does not necessarily mean you want the guy playing at all or some of those five positions. Defensive versatility is only valuable if the defense is competent.

[Thurston Fluff]

Im not that concerned, as the goal was to tank and the big results will be in the next 3 drafts anyhow.

 

I think you might have missed the main point of the article if you still think that was the goal. I know you believe he is doing it the Atros way but I sure hope tanking for five years to get one magical sub 90 win wild card season before going back to sucksville again isn't the plan.

 

I read the article but the team will need to be on the 25 year rebuilding plan if the main tool is adding Villar, Carter, and Junior which are the only Stearns added players who have done much.

 

The team is worse than last year -on pace for 66 wins - and the farm system has under performed. Yes it's too early to give Stearns a grade but based off the non draft tools it sure isn't great.

 

The goal is to acquire talent in all areas, not tank and lay all our eggs in the top draft pick basket. They are expected to be very big in the international market this season. That does not require tanking. They are even rumored to be looking at 28 year old Cuban defector Yadiel Hernandez as a free agent. That does not require tanking. Nor does it make any sense at all to even look into him if the plan is to tank for several years like you keep saying the plan is. There is ample evidence showing tanking for the draft pick is not the goal. While it is a nice perk of rebuilding I just don't get your insistence that tanking for the high pick is the main goal. There is no evidence to that effect other than he came from the Astros so he must be copying their MO. At this point one has to wonder why copying the Astros plan is a good idea anyway.

[QuevedosTongue]

I also wouldn't say his ability to play multiple positions gives him a lot of excess value, at least until he proves he can improve as a defender. I mean, Yuni could play five positions too.

.

 

Throwing around the "Y" word?! C'mon now. Villar looks like Ozzie Smith compared to Yuni B. Villar, from all accounts, is much better at 2B, 3B, LF, RF than SS, but the fact that he is playing a fairly decent SS proves his value (to me at least) as a future "Supersub"/Utility player or a starting 2B/3B who can give you a game or 2 at SS when Arcia needs a day off.

 

Yuni B's extremely below average level of range at SS/2B is a poor comparison. He was a replacement level defensive 3B and fairly competent at 1B (though he couldn't hit well enough to be a MLB 1B)

 

I'm not trying to beat up Villar, but the idea that he has been even adequate in the field at SS is wrong. He is near the low end of MLB SS in RZR, UZR, UZR/150 and in Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus' total defense ratings.

 

Hey, I hope he works his way into a piece worth playing or able to bring something back in trade, but I'm not sold on him yet. It's just way too early. If he keeps hitting like he has, then I think he becomes a nice utility piece, but his shortcomings in the field preclude him from being an everyday player/foundation piece for the team.

[tmwiese55]

I also wouldn't say his ability to play multiple positions gives him a lot of excess value, at least until he proves he can improve as a defender. I mean, Yuni could play five positions too.

.

 

Throwing around the "Y" word?! C'mon now. Villar looks like Ozzie Smith compared to Yuni B. Villar, from all accounts, is much better at 2B, 3B, LF, RF than SS, but the fact that he is playing a fairly decent SS proves his value (to me at least) as a future "Supersub"/Utility player or a starting 2B/3B who can give you a game or 2 at SS when Arcia needs a day off.

 

Yuni B's extremely below average level of range at SS/2B is a poor comparison. He was a replacement level defensive 3B and fairly competent at 1B (though he couldn't hit well enough to be a MLB 1B)

 

I'm not trying to beat up Villar, but the idea that he has been even adequate in the field at SS is wrong. He is near the low end of MLB SS in RZR, UZR, UZR/150 and in Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus' total defense ratings.

 

Hey, I hope he works his way into a piece worth playing or able to bring something back in trade, but I'm not sold on him yet. It's just way too early. If he keeps hitting like he has, then I think he becomes a nice utility piece, but his shortcomings in the field preclude him from being an everyday player/foundation piece for the team.

 

You have to remember we'd be looking at him at 3B and 2B, not as a SS. You can use those defensive metrics all you want but eye test I'd say he looks fine as in 'not good, not awful.' And when you say it's early on his hitting stats, it's early on these defensive metrics too and historically defensive ones are the most unpredictable and fickle. Yea, it's early and I expect some regression but we'll see how the rest of the year goes. crossing my fingers.

[FVBrewerFan]

It's May, 2016. Why does he have to be penciled in anywhere yet for 2017 or beyond? Over the next four months he may tank, and Gennett, Perez, or Rivera could go .950 OPS. (Exaggerating to prove a point.)

 

Let's just let it play out. We can agree Villar is having a good year. Is he the 6th best SS or 12th? What difference at this point does it make? All of this will be sorted out, that's what this season is for.

[tmwiese55]

Right, he could totally pull a Segura and be terrible in the second half. But we're up to 300 ABs now, the longer it goes on the better. But let's say he ends this season around 275/345 with a bunch of SBs and the same mediocre defense he's been playing, at that point you have a pretty solid sample size. I'd be pretty comfortable with him at one of the other IF spots available next to Arcia.

[monty57]

He is near the low end of MLB SS in RZR, UZR, UZR/150 and in Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus' total defense ratings.

 

Aren't those all stats that really require several years' worth of data to have any significance? In the short term, I don't think they are very meaningful.

 

As others have stated, it seems his faults (both on defense and base running) are mental. I haven't been able to watch many games lately, but I've still seen him twice thrown out at third base on a ball hit to SS when he was on second. That's basic base running, and has to be a "mental lapse." Overall, he has played capably this year, and is physically able (and young enough) to be even better. I could see him becoming a capable starting SS if he can get better focused.

 

Even with his faults, I'd have to think that he has increased his value with his play so far this season. Whether it's as a starter or as a utility guy, I'd have to think that most teams in baseball could use a guy like him. If he can iron out some of the "ifs," then he could be a nice asset for the Brewers. Of course, the Cubs dealt with "mental lapses" from Starlin Castro for years before finally shipping him off, so not all players can overcome these issues, but giving guys a shot is part of what this season is about for the Brewers.

[harrydalton]

To gauge Stearns' success in May of his first season is ludicrous. Ideally, his success would be judged against what his expectations were in making the deals. And no posters are likely to know what his expectations were.

 

Ultimately, the Brewers organization will succeed or fail based primarily on its drafting, signing international prospects, and developing the young talent.

 

Most of Stearns' trades thus far are playing the percentages: Acquire as much young talent as you can get, with the expectation that many, if not most, will not become MLB stars.

 

To evaluate trade by trade is an iffy proposition, at best, especially when there are three months left in the minor league schedules.

 

Since much of the talent acquired is quite young, their careers are harder to project.

[WV Brew]

Just to put things in perspective-The model for Stearns, the Astros, after 6 years of horrendous losing had one 86 win season. The Astros are now in last place in their division with the 2nd worst record in the AL. (Only the Twins, another rebuilding team are worse).

[endaround]

He is near the low end of MLB SS in RZR, UZR, UZR/150 and in Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus' total defense ratings.

 

Aren't those all stats that really require several years' worth of data to have any significance? In the short term, I don't think they are very meaningful.

 

Villar has over 1700 innings at SS with a UZR of -25.1. He's part of the truly awful defense that has been together for this team.

[monty57]

The model for Stearns, the Astros

 

And where has anyone in the organization said that this was the model?

 

The Brewers were going downhill fast, and after a horrendous start to last season (following a horrendous finish to the prior season), they traded away some tradeable players to restock the farm while holding on to some other guys. Then they didn't hit the free agency market hard. We will see where we go from here, but that's basically the nuts and bolts of what has happened so far, and I'd argue that they are better at all levels, even the MLB level, then they would have been had they not traded Gomez, Fiers, Davis, Lind, Segura, and K-Rod (and anyone I may be missing).

 

The Brewers are in rebuild due to necessity. As Braun said, they were not breaking up a juggernaut. People immediately jump to the conclusion that we're going to copy the Cubs or the Astros, but I don't think that's necessarily accurate. Building up the farm is the logical first step they had to take. From there, anything can happen. The Astros decided to sell off a lot of prospects last year to "go for it," and it didn't work. Their biggest "get," Carlos Gomez, has been a tremendous flop, and the trade went a long way in rebuilding the Brewers' farm. I'd say the Astros kind of followed the Melvin/Attanasio model of taking a strong farm and using it as trade bait to attain short-term satisfaction. They still have a lot of talent, but they traded away a lot of the future for the chance to win last year, which was probably a year or two ahead of when most people thought they should be a World Series favorite. They didn't need Gomez last year (and he hurt them more than helped), but they could probably use Hader, Houser, Phillips and Santana in the future. I sure hope that's not the model we'll follow.

 

We are still in the early stages of the Stearns era, so let's not jump to judgement about what he will do based on what another team did. He seems to have a plan to build every level of the franchise, which is necessary for long-term sustainability. This is a different tactic from Melvin, who liked to stockpile all of his top guys so they came up around the same time, which is a recipe for opening a short-term window for potential success. He doesn't seem to cling to the name on the player's jersey, which is a change for Attanasio, who often stated that fans like to see names they know. He seems to like control (good K:BB) pitchers, and guys with plate discipline, while Melvin seemed to like pitchers with big arms but maybe not the best control, and hitters with more power than discipline.

 

These are a few things I've noticed. I don't know that we have enough information to figure out what he will do, but it seems he's looking at making a team that can be good over a long period. Of course, I may just be seeing that because that's what I've been hoping for for a long time.

[pacopete4]

Just to put things in perspective-The model for Stearns, the Astros, after 6 years of horrendous losing had one 86 win season. The Astros are now in last place in their division with the 2nd worst record in the AL. (Only the Twins, another rebuilding team are worse).

 

 

Yeah they've gotten off to a rough start. He also wasn't the GM of that team and people do learn things and take different approaches.

[Jenkins5]

Just to put things in perspective-The model for Stearns, the Astros, after 6 years of horrendous losing had one 86 win season. The Astros are now in last place in their division with the 2nd worst record in the AL. (Only the Twins, another rebuilding team are worse).

 

 

Yeah they've gotten off to a rough start. He also wasn't the GM of that team and people do learn things and take different approaches.

 

They made poor decisions. The had a great rebuild going, they experienced a little success, they sold off the farm and decided to go for it. The guys they brought in have been terrible. Guys who had big years last year are down.

 

Brewers CANNOT rush the rebuild. Don't experience a little success, then go all in. Astros like the Bucks took a two-three step leap forward no they are falling back to where they really were....not there yet.

[FVBrewerFan]

Brewers CANNOT rush the rebuild. Don't experience a little success, then go all in.

 

Agreed, but that's exactly what I'm afraid Mark A will want to do. Especially if we're into, say, 2020. I think he can be patient for a couple years, I just have my doubts he can be patient for 5-7 years, if that's what it takes.

 

(Which could have happened in Houston as well, I have no idea if Owner(s) got involved there. But a reminder it's not always the GM making these calls.)

[MadThinker88]

Considering the division, a 5+ year rebuild plan makes the most sense.

 

The Cubs and Pirates are not going away anytime soon and until the Cards actually fall out of contention, I will not make any plans for a funeral...

 

The interesting situation is the Reds... The key will be being in better position than the Reds in 2020 and be ready to take advantage of one of the other 3 teams slipping back to the Brewers / Reds.

 

Now is the time to keep stock piling talent and work on building a winning culture throughout the minor league system so when the talents reach the majors, they are ready to move the big league club into winning..