BP Milwaukee article on "The Rebuild"

[QuevedosTongue]

Some interesting writing on the process, 'tanking', and what the plan might be going forward. Julien Assouline (the writer) talks some about the long-term and does think Carter will be dealt.

 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/19/the-draft-is-only-a-tool-in-the-rebuilding-process/

[JohnBriggs12]

The jury's out on Stearns. He's hit on some (Villar, Carter, Guerra) but jury's out on most of his moves and will be for some time. The return for Segura wasn't bad but it's becoming apparent he sold low on him and unless Diaz becomes a player down the road, it's likely the best player moved in that deal is now playing for Arizona and that's not even mentioning Wagner who might turn out to be serviceable. His rule 5 selections at this point look ill-advised as do his cornering the market on overrated former Red Sox 3B (though there was truly nothing to lose on those). His best deal was trading a prospect (Sneed) for Villar, so that doesn't really qualify as a rebuild move but the return so far is promising. Neither does the signing of Carter though that could end up being turned into a nice move for the future. Melvin had a terrific final year as GM from picking 24 year old Hernan Perez off the scrap heap (who Stearns foolishly risked losing to a waiver claim after last year), making the deal with Houston and getting Davies for expiring contract in Parra.

[ctmyers]

Your superlatives are interesting to say the least. The rule 5 picks have very little impact on future success, so I'm not sure why they would be weighted as equally as other moves, which have been relatively small in scale thus far. I will judge Stearns by the trades/non-trades of Lucroy and others, as well as the upcoming draft.

 

It's hard to call a move foolish - risking Perez to a waiver claim - when it ultimately worked. He judged the market correctly.

[bill hAll Star]

So now we're calling a week vs. the Angels and Reds pitching staffs enough to consider Hernan Perez a "terrific" player?

[MrTPlush]

I wouldn't say Stearns really hit on Villar, Carter, or Guerra. Villar is hitting similar to what he did last year with the Astros. I'd say what he is doing isn't surprising at all and not something Stearns should be patted on the back for. When it comes to Carter I also don't find his production all that surprising. His average is coming back down to earth and after that happens he isn't far off previous production numbers he has had in the past. The jury is still out on a guy like Guerra since it has only been 3 starts, but I don't think he is very good. Like a lot of players I think he is having that early success when teams have little to no scouting reports. I don't expect him to really amount to anything...but hey we don't know yet.

 

I also don't think he made a mistake with Segura. It was very clear he wasn't turning it around here and he traded a pretty worthless player for a good player in Diaz. I also think Segura's numbers are still severely inflated and once they come down he won't be all that great like he seems now.

[Boomer5]

The trade returns have been underwhelming but thats to be expected with a rookie and very young GM. He did a nice move with Villar and Carter was a smart buy low pick up. The rest of the moves were churning at best as both Nottingham and Diaz dont look like elite prospects but its early. Holding on to Lucroy has been silly and I think the window for trading Braun was very small and we probably missed it as he is back to being the guy that is on and off with nagging injuries.

 

Im not that concerned, as the goal was to tank and the big results will be in the next 3 drafts anyhow.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The jury's out on Stearns. He's hit on some (Villar, Carter, Guerra) but jury's out on most of his moves and will be for some time.

 

that's kind of the point for a GM who hasn't been with the team for a year, or even for a singe draft yet, isn't it? People forget that he wasn't with the Brewers until late September last year....

[pacopete4]

I am actually pleased with what he has done in the short time of being the Brewers GM. I mean, what did we expect in less than one full year at the helm?

[FVBrewerFan]

Holding on to Lucroy has been silly and I think the window for trading Braun was very small and we probably missed it as he is back to being the guy that is on and off with nagging injuries.

 

Which deals on the table would you have taken for Lucroy or Braun?

[ZBTMP]

I am actually pleased with what he has done in the short time of being the Brewers GM. I mean, what did we expect in less than one full year at the helm?

Exactly. We've traded away a cumulative 0.3 WAR so far.

Segura (1.0 WAR)

Tyler Wagner (0.4 WAR)

Davis (0.1 WAR)

K-Rod (0.0 WAR)

Rogers (0.0 WAR)

Sardinas (-0.4 WAR)

Lind (-0.8 WAR)

Complaints about light returns or selling low seems like just looking for a reason to complain.

[pacopete4]

I am actually pleased with what he has done in the short time of being the Brewers GM. I mean, what did we expect in less than one full year at the helm?

Exactly. We've traded away a cumulative 0.3 WAR so far.

Segura (1.0 WAR)

Tyler Wagner (0.4 WAR)

Davis (0.1 WAR)

K-Rod (0.0 WAR)

Rogers (0.0 WAR)

Sardinas (-0.4 WAR)

Lind (-0.8 WAR)

Complaints about light returns or selling low seems like just looking for a reason to complain.

 

 

Yes and I am on the side of Segura returning back into the pumpkin eventually.

[sveumrules]

I think it's a little too early to say Stearns sold low on Segura. His OPS was a season high 1.613 on April 8th & is a season low .833 and falling as of today. Last time he put together a couple two tree hundred at bats this good we saw what kind of production he followed it up with for the next 2 1/2 years.

 

In regards to Nottingham & Diaz not being elite prospects, that's to be expected as neither was traded for an elite player.

[Thurston Fluff]

Im not that concerned, as the goal was to tank and the big results will be in the next 3 drafts anyhow.

 

I think you might have missed the main point of the article if you still think that was the goal. I know you believe he is doing it the Atros way but I sure hope tanking for five years to get one magical sub 90 win wild card season before going back to sucksville again isn't the plan.

[Outlander]

Im not that concerned, as the goal was to tank and the big results will be in the next 3 drafts anyhow.

 

I think you might have missed the main point of the article if you still think that was the goal. I know you believe he is doing it the Atros way but I sure hope tanking for five years to get one magical sub 90 win wild card season before going back to sucksville again isn't the plan.

If somebody doesn't want the read the article the last sentence pretty much sums it up:

 

Yes, they will use the draft to rebuild, but it’s only one of their tools in a large tool box.

[splitterpfj]

Adam Lind - OPS with Seattle - .580. Freddy Peralta - dominating the Midwest League, with two more arms in the stable.

[Boomer5]

Im not that concerned, as the goal was to tank and the big results will be in the next 3 drafts anyhow.

 

I think you might have missed the main point of the article if you still think that was the goal. I know you believe he is doing it the Atros way but I sure hope tanking for five years to get one magical sub 90 win wild card season before going back to sucksville again isn't the plan.

 

I read the article but the team will need to be on the 25 year rebuilding plan if the main tool is adding Villar, Carter, and Junior which are the only Stearns added players who have done much.

 

The team is worse than last year -on pace for 66 wins - and the farm system has under performed. Yes it's too early to give Stearns a grade but based off the non draft tools it sure isn't great.

[stoutdude04]

Im not that concerned, as the goal was to tank and the big results will be in the next 3 drafts anyhow.

 

I think you might have missed the main point of the article if you still think that was the goal. I know you believe he is doing it the Atros way but I sure hope tanking for five years to get one magical sub 90 win wild card season before going back to sucksville again isn't the plan.

 

I read the article but the team will need to be on the 25 year rebuilding plan if the main tool is adding Villar, Carter, and Junior which are the only Stearns added players who have done much.

 

The team is worse than last year -on pace for 66 wins - and the farm system has under performed. Yes it's too early to give Stearns a grade but based off the non draft tools it sure isn't great.

 

The team may be performing worse, but the goal wasn't to lose as many games as possible. That's basically what the article is saying. If you don't want to believe that, fine, but getting the number 1 pick doesn't guarantee success. Picking guys up off waivers and making trades does. That's exactly what Stearns did with the resources he had. Hit on a few, or miss on a few. He didn't go Major League and purposely build a crappy team.

[adambr2]

The farm system has disappointed this year but I think 66 wins was pretty much the realistic possibility in all our minds.

 

I have zero problem with any of our offseason moves both in hindsight and now. We got a top 3 HR hitter in the NL so far and a top 7-10 SS who is the NL leader in steals.

 

Considering we got both for basically nothing I'd say Stearns did pretty well for a rookie GM, wouldn't you?

[MrTPlush]

How can anyone seriously give any concrete opinion on Stearns at this point? I am no super fan of Stearns, but I won't be grading him on a couple months. This rebuild will take many years and like every other GM that has ever existed he will make his fair share of mistakes along the way.

 

I don't think it looks good or bad. He is just getting started and I don't think any of his moves are looking bad or great because it is just too early.

[DHonks]

I wouldn't say Stearns really hit on Villar, Carter, or Guerra. Villar is hitting similar to what he did last year with the Astros. I'd say what he is doing isn't surprising at all and not something Stearns should be patted on the back for. When it comes to Carter I also don't find his production all that surprising. His average is coming back down to earth and after that happens he isn't far off previous production numbers he has had in the past. The jury is still out on a guy like Guerra since it has only been 3 starts, but I don't think he is very good. Like a lot of players I think he is having that early success when teams have little to no scouting reports. I don't expect him to really amount to anything...but hey we don't know yet.

 

I also don't think he made a mistake with Segura. It was very clear he wasn't turning it around here and he traded a pretty worthless player for a good player in Diaz. I also think Segura's numbers are still severely inflated and once they come down he won't be all that great like he seems now.

 

A couple of things here...first of all, you expected Villar to be one of the top shortstops in all of baseball? I expected him to be a fringe utility/AAAA type with decent defense and OBP skills. This has to be the trade of the off-season thus far!

 

Also, how can you call Segura worthless and Diaz good? That's hilarious...one's in A-ball and may never see AA. The other has been an MLB contributor, even if below league average, for several seasons now. At this point Diaz is unlikely to ever be as good as Segura. However, we're all enamored with the skills and hope that he not only pans out, but becomes a star.

[MrTPlush]

A couple of things here...first of all, you expected Villar to be one of the top shortstops in all of baseball?

 

Also, how can you call Segura worthless and Diaz good?

 

1. Who the heck said Villar was one of the top SS in the game? His stats are solid, but not great. I also don't think his defense is anything other than average. If you take into account his near .400 BABIP I am not surprised by what he has done so far one bit.

 

2. Jean Segura's trade value was that of a worthless player at the time we traded him. Also his production on the field when we trade him was pretty horrendous. When you account for taking on Aaron Hill's salary and then trading a prospect back to them what exactly did Segura net? Anderson?

[danzig6767]

Rebuilds today will come do what they almost always have, does the GM and those underneath him have an eye for talent.

 

Sure, many GM's today will use analytics in ways others in the past didn't use, but in the end it's still overall scouting whether in trading veterans for prospects, the draft, and finding potential underrated MLB players.

 

Take Theo with the Cubs. For as much credit as he's gotten for the overall process of his rebuild, what was far more important is that he and his scouting staff has very often traded for the right players, drafted the right players, and had a little luck sprinkled in. For all of the credit Beane got for his process of building teams, he had the eye to draft Hudson, Mulder, and Zito over three drafts.

 

Stearns has traded for a lot of players in a short time, ranging from guys in AAA to kids still in their teens playing A ball. It's nearly impossible to say this early on just how well this smorgasbord of traded for players will develop and thus in retrospect the trades will layer be judged. This and drafting skills will impact how fast and well the rebuild.

 

I thought most of the trades which Stearns made did seem good from an average fan's perspective, but i never scouted any of those prospects. Hopefully Stearns and his staff end up proving to have an above average eye for talent because that will dictate whether this rebuild is a success, more so that the process he uses to rebuid.

[DHonks]

A couple of things here...first of all, you expected Villar to be one of the top shortstops in all of baseball?

 

Also, how can you call Segura worthless and Diaz good?

 

1. Who the heck said Villar was one of the top SS in the game? His stats are solid, but not great. I also don't think his defense is anything other than average. If you take into account his near .400 BABIP I am not surprised by what he has done so far one bit.

 

2. Jean Segura's trade value was that of a worthless player at the time we traded him. Also his production on the field when we trade him was pretty horrendous. When you account for taking on Aaron Hill's salary and then trading a prospect back to them what exactly did Segura net? Anderson?

 

1. Villar has been one of the best SS in the game in 2016. You said you expected this performance, as it's similar to his 2015 performance. While it likely won't continue this well, he's ranking:

 

7th in AVG

4th in OBP

14th in SLG

7th in OPS

1st in SB (and CS)

3rd in 2b

 

So thus far he's been clearly a top 7 SS thus far, and likely a top 5 depending. He's been a revelation given that we're accustomed to low-OBP guys that swing at everything.

 

2. Why was Seggy's trade value so low in your mind? He played solid-to-very good defense, was young enough to potentially improve, and has shown stolen base instincts. His OBP and SLG were weak, but we knew a team in need of affordable middle infield help and speed could see him as an upgrade. Hill was a salary throw-in, but he's been outperforming expectations (especially mine, as I expected him to never suit up for the team), Diaz is a legit low-level prospect, and Anderson has probably been performing to expectations (outside of an initial rough first few starts) as an affordable 4th/5th starter on a non-contending team. I miss Tyler Wagner, but he wasn't a highly-thought of prospect and he allowed us to upgrade our roster both now and--hopefully--in the future.

[adambr2]

I think Villar at least so far is a top 7 SS, at least top 10. Is it possible he'll regress, yes. But right now I don't know how anyone can't be impressed with him. He gets on base which is a huge asset. His defense has been serviceable in general, though he's had a tendency to make some late game blunders. I'd like to see him cut down on his baserunning mistakes, but that can be improved.

 

We've got 5 more years of control over him including this one and I think that was a great trade for us. Obviously he's not our future at SS, but I think he's got a ton of value as a super utility infielder.

 

Since we have no clear future at any infield position right now besides SS, Villar is a really good player to have around.

[QuevedosTongue]

For the record, Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs have Villar ranked in the middle of the pack of SS or lower. Fangraphs shows him as the 14th most valuable, BP as the 20th. His offensive production is offset by his poor defense, which is how I felt about him before I looked up the numbers. As well as he has played at times, he seems to have a lot of lapses of concentration, both in the field and on the bases.

 

Villar is what we all thought he would be when he arrived in Milwaukee; a placeholder for the postion until Arcia arrives.