Jimmy Nelson

[MrTPlush]

With the rumor that we had discussed a Nelson/Espinoza swap with Boston, do you think the Dodgers would have any interest in a Nelson/De Leon swap? They appear to still need SP help, and Nelson would probably be very reliable for them in a #3 type role in their rotation. Or, would the Dodgers probably balk at this offer since De Leon is close to being MLB ready (unlike Espinoza in the Boston proposal).

 

Bigger problem is ceiling. Nelson appears to be very clearly a #3 while Pomeranz could legitimately be a #2 or better.

[Austin Tatious]

I'd be open to Nelson to Boston for Kopech and a second piece to offset the risk brought on by Kopech.

 

Boston still needs a pitcher.

[vannzee]

I wonder what his trade value would be this offseas N. I am surprised that he hasn't been moved yet.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'd be open to Nelson to Boston for Kopech and a second piece to offset the risk brought on by Kopech.

 

Boston still needs a pitcher.

 

Straight up I would believe Boston still hangs up the phone. Isn't Kopech hitting high 90s? Late last season?

I believe Nelson's value is below what it can be with a productive 2017. It'd take an offer like Kopech to move him But, i dont find Boston's need for what Nelson has done.

[MadThinker88]

Guys,

 

Figure out a new target. Michael Kopech was part of the package Boston sent to Chicago for Chris Sale.

[JohnBriggs12]

The trade market for back end starters has been completely quiet as teams grab up those guys from the low end free agent bin.

 

It might take a guy or two to go down with an injury in spring for Stearns to move a starter. I'm not so worried about the return. Nelson's not bringing back a top prospect at this point. Maybe a need develops on the big league club or you get a lower level guy but Brewers need to start making room for the starters in waiting.

[homer]

Oh my, if we trade away our only legitimate starting pitcher (yes, I know some of have been better as of late), I quit. How embarrassing. Seriously, how embarrassing would it be that we cannot even keep ONE stinking pitcher worth a darn on our team.

 

This is from May of last year. Amazing how quickly things can change in terms of player value.

[brewcrewdue80]

Ha! I clicked the little tab that takes me to last post read. It was the July 20th post, but seeing the Nelson thread pop up atop the thread I thought it was the newest post when it took me to that post. Whoops.

[Oldcity]

Hard to trade Nelson now when he was so brutal last season. Might as well hope he can rebound a bit and try again.

[JohnBriggs12]

Considering the market for controllable arms like Quintana, I'm sure Stearns might be thinking he could hit the jackpot next winter if Nelson comes around and performs for a full season like he did in April and May of 2016. But he runs the risk of losing what value he might have now if he continues to struggle.

 

Tough calls like this are why GM's make the big bucks.

[Roderick]

Considering the market for controllable arms like Quintana, I'm sure Stearns might be thinking he could hit the jackpot next winter if Nelson comes around and performs for a full season like he did in April and May of 2016. But he runs the risk of losing what value he might have now if he continues to struggle.

 

Tough calls like this are why GM's make the big bucks.

 

I don't think he has enough value "now" that there is a tough call to make.

 

The tough call will be if Nelson performs pretty good up to the trading deadline, how much to absolutely hold out for versus keeping through end of the year.

[brewerfan82]

Agreed. There's no tough call right now as he doesn't have much value. I think the tough call will be if he actually does have a good season. With 3 years of control left after 2017, he becomes the kind of guy you're looking to add for our next run at that point. It's easy to say now that you want to trade him after a good season when his value is high, but many would have said the same thing about Villar before this year and now he's close to untouchable. I have a feeling we're holding onto Nelson for a couple years regardless of how he performs (he'll either not have enough value to other teams or he'll have too much value to us to trade).

[JohnBriggs12]

27 year old controllable healthy starting pitchers with Nelson's stuff have value even if diminished coming off a poor year. Would he bring a top prospect? No, but he may never reach that point as a Brewer. I think he's more likely to succeed in a new environment. Can the Brewers wait and see? Sure. But I wouldn't assume the lack of interest at this stage of the offseason to mean teams don't like Nelson. As long as there are better options out there in FA and the trade market, teams aren't going to clamor for Nelson, but one the FA dry up and the hot trade targets are off the market, you'll find out his actual value.

[And That]

Is Nelson even guaranteed a rotation spot at this point? An ugly spring training might incentivize the Brewers to send him down to the minors and stop his service clock while he works out of the suck hole.

[JohnBriggs12]

Is Nelson even guaranteed a rotation spot at this point? An ugly spring training might incentivize the Brewers to send him down to the minors and stop his service clock while he works out of the suck hole.

 

Arizona numbers are notoriously unreliable. I don't think a 6 man rotation to start the year is out of the question. Even the Cubs have talked about it because of the heavy innings their starters logged last year. Look what the Reds just got for one decent year for Straily. Brewers need their mid-career types (Anderson, Nelson, Peralta) with a bit of control left to reach those levels and they'll be able to cash them in handsomely. Nelson could go down to AAA, but if he's not back and performing close to his ability soon, his value will drop further.

[And That]

Arizona numbers are notoriously unreliable.

Spring training numbers are unreliable, though:

 

1)Teams rely on spring training performances to some degree anyway;

2)Pitcher peripherals in spring training have been shown to carry over into the regular season - so if a guy is walking everyone or striking out everyone in spring, they'll probably still be doing that when it counts. If Nelson throws 20 innings, and walks 15 guys, it's a small sample and it's spring, but it's still a demonstrably bad sign.

[CheezWizHed]

There are some "soft" measurements in ST that will be part of the evaluation also. Its not always about the stats. If they gave Nelson some things to work on and he is showing that he is making the adjustments, he will probably get a longer leash too.

 

We probably only see 20% (the games) of everything being evaluated during ST.

[FVBrewerFan]

Nelson has value. He can eat innings, has 3 years of control, and is still young enough to have an upside. Essentially, you know what his floor is, and he ha shown stretches of what his ceiling could be. As others have said though, that doesn't equate to someone offering a top prospect for him. So he really is more valuable to the Brewers at this point.

 

As far as a guaranteed starting spot? I would say he's pretty darned close to be guaranteed a spot. We'll see how ST goes, there could be an odd man out (or two) but they can always put Anderson in the BP or CS, or hide someone like a Guerra on the 15 day DL, just to buy a little time to see how things shake out.

 

Finally, I think there's a chance a rookie makes the rotation- probably Woodruff. I'm thinking they may feel the need to spread out the arrival times of these SP prospects.

[brewcrewdue80]

There are often ST pitchers who throws pitches they are working on or developing since these are meaningless games. But showing some repetitions and in game throws to maybe dabble with the pitch more often during the season.

 

But to me, yes he is a Opening Day SP and not a BP or CS potential. How would he not be Opening Day SP? His FB being 4MPH slower than normal would be cause of alarm to then send him down and see what's going on.

[vannzee]

I wouldn't mind a deal or Nelson for say Matt Szcuee of the Cubs. Not likely but would upgrade in CF.

[yfinn6]

I wouldn't mind a deal or Nelson for say Matt Szcuee of the Cubs. Not likely but would upgrade in CF.

 

At this point, given what we've seen from Broxton, I don't understand how Szcsur is an upgrade. Even with Jimmy's poor 2016, I feel like this would be a poor deal for the Brewers.

[CheezWizHed]

I wouldn't mind a deal or Nelson for say Matt Szcuee of the Cubs. Not likely but would upgrade in CF.

 

At this point, given what we've seen from Broxton, I don't understand how Szcsur is an upgrade. Even with Jimmy's poor 2016, I feel like this would be a poor deal for the Brewers.

 

I have no idea who Szcsur is, but given we have Broxton, Brinson, Maverick, Clark and Ray in the pipeline at CF (not to mention Taylor and Wren), CF seems to be the last place we need more players. Maybe the guy is a value add, but I still think there are other places to look if we were to trade Jimmy. And I'm guessing we would be trading Jimmy at his lowest point. I think he will have a bounce back year this year given that his BB rate spiked outside of his norms last year.

[JohnBriggs12]

I wouldn't mind a deal or Nelson for say Matt Szcuee of the Cubs. Not likely but would upgrade in CF.

 

At this point, given what we've seen from Broxton, I don't understand how Szcsur is an upgrade. Even with Jimmy's poor 2016, I feel like this would be a poor deal for the Brewers.

 

I have no idea who Szcsur is, but given we have Broxton, Brinson, Maverick, Clark and Ray in the pipeline at CF (not to mention Taylor and Wren), CF seems to be the last place we need more players. Maybe the guy is a value add, but I still think there are other places to look if we were to trade Jimmy. And I'm guessing we would be trading Jimmy at his lowest point. I think he will have a bounce back year this year given that his BB rate spiked outside of his norms last year.

 

Szczur has spent parts of the last 3 seasons as essentially the Cubs' 25th man. Only a Cub fan could suggest a trade of a non-entity like Szczur for a controllable starter with middle of the rotation stuff.

[AKCheesehead]

I'd want no part of that trade, but I will give credit where it is due. Szczur's story of donating bone marrow, risking his college football glory and baseball draft to help a kid 6,000 miles away is inspirational and heartwarming. He's one cub I can root for.

[JohnBriggs12]

If the Brewers traded Nelson to the Cubs, the guy I'd target is Candelario. If they want to throw in Szcsur, that'd would be great.