Jimmy Nelson

[adambr2]

GP GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L

33 33 0 0 214.2 169 88 74 29 85 169 15 11

 

P/GS WHIP BAA ERA

94.1 1.18 .221 3.07

 

 

Here's ESPN's projection based on Nelson pitching to the numbers he's at for 33starts. 214IP at 3.07ERA is stats #2s put up. His BBs are about 20-24 too high and Ks about 30+ too low but that change makes him producing Ace numbers.

 

If you think 214IP at 3.07ERA with 170Ks is #3 results, Then I wonder if you'd really call Bumgarner/Kershaw Aces. Bumgarner the last 2 seasons has gone 217/218 IP and a 2.93/2.98ERA Sure Ks were a 226 avg and bbs a 42 avg. But that's what I'm pointing at. If Nelson improves 1K more a Start and 1BB less a start he's posting Ace numbers similar to Bumgarner.

 

That literally is the difference for Nelson between him and Bumgarner. He turns that extra BB in to a K he is a Bumgarner producing pitcher. Nelson's GB% is better than Bumgarner's on his career. LD% equal. HR/FB% 2% difference in career which MP vs SF home stadiums? That's impressive Can't believe Bumgarner is even at 9.3% to Nelson's 11.3.

 

But go ahead tell me how Nelson is just a #3 SP performer vs #2.

BABIP right? HRs isn't a Ball in Play to that stat. So when his HR/FB% comes back to norms and he's allowing base hits to raise that BABIP. That's better than giving up Run/s on a single swing of the bat.

 

When he actually produces a 3.07 ERA for a single season and we don't base it on a "projection" in May, then we'll talk about Nelson being more than a 3.

 

For now, he's got a 4.00 career ERA. No one will be happier than me if he sustains his results, but it's crazy to pencil him in for 214 IP and 170K and talk about him like he's already that pitcher. So much can happen between now and then. The guy has never thrown over 177 innings in a season and you're projecting him for 214 based on a May projection.

[QuevedosTongue]

I wouldn't give him any kind of a long-term deal right now. He's been okay, but consider that his walk rate is up, his K rate is down and his BABIP is much lower than his career mark. Those 3 indicators tell me that he is not actually improving and that his success this season has more good luck than normal involved. The sample size is small, but if the first 2 trends continue and his BABIP regresses to the mean, he's going to feel like the #3/4 SP that his peripherals indicate.

 

Sometimes people start to fall in love with someone because he is the team's best player at a position, even if he's not that good. Nelson isn't bad, he isn't great. He's better than replacement-level for sure, but not someone I would be looking to lock up for any kind of long-term deal. There is no reason to not go year-to-year with any player that is not an elite talent.

 

Yea, I'm not in love with him. But what's wrong with locking up a SP long term, even if he is a #3 type? Obviously, the caveat is at what price. He's been durable, and there is value in having a dependable #3 type SP locked up long term, no?

 

A solid mid-rotation SP is a definite asset for any team. If a contract is team-friendly I wouldn't be against it, but, as TPlush said, I doubt Nelson is of a mind to give much of a team-friendly deal right now. And when I say team friendly that means a 3 year deal max. Anything over that, no matter how low the annual dollar amount, is a mistake because of the loss of flexibility. Once Stearns feels the team is a playoff competitor, that is the time to open up the budget. A mid-rotation FA at that point could make a huge difference.

[CheezWizHed]

I think we can all agree that Jimmy hasn't peaked yet. If we think he is going to get better, there isn't any reason to trade him. I think you (at minimum) pitch him this year and see where he ends up.

 

And I wouldn't ignore the value in a contract that buys out his arby years and first year of FA. If its in line with a #3 SP, I'd go for it. Yes, you take a risk if he gets injured but you can't run away because of some risk either. Salary controlled contracts are attractive to teams if you get to the point of trading him.

[tmwiese55]

I thought the deals signed to Gallardo, Weeks, Hart, Lucroy were exactly the ones most on here would want. Early, cheap team friendly extensions that signed them until 30-32ish type age at which point you trade them. They just got unlucky that Hart got hurt and well Weeks turned to trash. That said, who knows if they would have actually followed through on trading them, but the deals themselves were ideal imo. Gallardo did get traded and Lucroy is likely to.

 

Jimmie Nelson will be an odd situation due to coming up at a little bit older age. Essentially we could just arbitration right through his prime at which point he risks never really getting a significant payday if he gets hurt or is just nothing more than a middling #3-4 type starter, so when he hits FA he won't command big deal. In his situation if you hand him like 6/30-35 million right now maybe he takes it just to never have to worry about getting a real job. But if you're the Brewers you don't need to do it, but if then you risk paying him bigger in his arbitration years as salaries keep going up.

[pacopete4]

They just got unlucky that Hart got hurt and well Weeks turned to trash.

 

 

Weeks also got hurt, multiple times. Not to sound like the Weeks defender here but if he didn't sustain the injuries he did, he was one of the best second basemen in all of baseball.

[FVBrewerFan]

If a pitcher is a perennial #3 then he shouldn't be part of the "core" of the team, the object should be to make that kind of pitcher replaceable in the organization. To often a true #3 is either our #2 or #1 on the Brewers... the issue here has rarely been the offense, it's almost always been the pitching.

 

Completely disagree a perennial #3 shouldn't be part of the core of a team. Any idea how much money has been spent over the years on the likes of Suppan, Lohse, Wolf, Garza, Marcum ,etc. trying to find that #3? Not to mention the countless dozens of pitchers brought up through the system that were never able to do it?

 

You said it yourself, pitching is always the issue. So why wouldn't you want to lock one up? Think of it this way. If Nelson was in the 2011 rotation, I think they win the WS. And he would have been the #4 on that staff. But that's all they needed, one more quality SP to eat innings after Marcum broke down.

 

That's not to say I wouldn't trade him either. I'm open to whatever makes sense. If he's willing to sign a reasonable 6 year deal, do it. Or, if you can get a couple really good prospects back in a trade, I would do that too.

[tmwiese55]

They just got unlucky that Hart got hurt and well Weeks turned to trash.

 

 

Weeks also got hurt, multiple times. Not to sound like the Weeks defender here but if he didn't sustain the injuries he did, he was one of the best second basemen in all of baseball.

 

Yea, hindsight what I wrote probably came down harder on Weeks than intended. Point is the same, it was exactly the deal many on here want, they just got unlucky that at the end he was untradeable

[MadThinker88]

I'm still trying to wrap my head around this idea that a 6 year contract (ie extension) for a pitcher is a good idea for a club, any club.

 

There are many clubs that refuse to go over 4 years for pitchers because of injury risks and volatility.

Heck, players are even looking for opt outs after a couple of seasons.

 

Yes, there some clubs that will go with 6 or 7 year deals for pitchers but how many of those deals workout over the entire course of the contract. Most of them blow up on the club at some point.

 

I'm not saying Nelson isn't worthy of a long term deal but I do think it's premature to do it now and I think going 6 years is asking for all sorts of problems down the road...

[FVBrewerFan]

That's true if we're talking about a 6 yr $200 million contract or something. A Nelson 6 yr contract would not cause financial ruin.

[Austin Tatious]

There is a huge demand for effective starting pitching. If you're trying to contend, and you need a solid starting pitcher, it's brutal. There's a supply and demand issue. If you picture it from the point of view from a team who needs pitching, what are they supposed to do? Slim Pickens.

 

So, I'd agree with the majority that you do it if you get a large overpay. At least two top impact prospects who we feel really good about. Don't rule it out.

 

The Bosox are very happy with their young nucleus of Bradley, Shaw, Betts, Bogaerts, Swihart et al. But they don't have much hope with starting pitchers. They may be willing to overpay from their surplus of position player prospects.

[homer]

The other thing to consider is that there isn't much pitching out there to be had. Most non contending teams have junk to offer other than maybe Julio Teheran. Perhaps the price will be high for a guy like Nelson.

[fondybrewfan]

The only was I can feasibly see trading a guy like Nelson is if you get someone back in AA or AAA that could be reasonably expect to start for the team next year. If you want to compete in say 2018 or 2019 you need to get some of that rotation experience in the big leagues for a year or two. Hader should hopefully be in Milwaukee next year. If we don't have Nelson I would really prefer to get a guy to pair with Hader next year. Give them 2 years to develop in Milwaukee and then you have 4 more years of team control while you are competing.

[nate82]

The other thing to consider is that there isn't much pitching out there to be had. Most non contending teams have junk to offer other than maybe Julio Teheran. Perhaps the price will be high for a guy like Nelson.

 

I think the price for Nelson would be rather high if on the trade market. There are very little in terms of free agents next year also. Teheran is the next biggest pitcher who maybe available but the Braves are also going to want a lot for him.

 

If the Brewers were to trade Nelson I believe they could seriously ask for at least 1 of a teams top 5 prospects possibly even 2. I still believe the Red Sox make sense here you could even put a super package together and have a Lucroy and Nelson deal for something like Devers, Espinoza, Swihart, Ball, and Ockimey. Probably dreaming on this but that is a fairly good haul for the Brewers.

[Austin Tatious]

Look at what the Braves got for a comparable kid in Shelby Miller. Dansby Swanson who has all star potential.

 

If you look at what teams have gotten in prospects for Ken Giles, Hammel, Samrdijza, Shelby Miller, Carlos Gomez and others, various bars have been set. I think we trade off guys piecemeal. But I'd expect good returns for some of our assets. We can be creative to get things done. The key is getting some high end prospects, even if younger. We have depth in our system, we need more tools you higher rated guys. For example, I don't see the level of talent yet that the Cubs had on the horizon. There's more time, granted, but that's where we need to head.

[jerichoholicninja]

Look at what the Braves got for a comparable kid in Shelby Miller. Dansby Swanson who has all star potential.

 

Unfortunately not every team can trade with Dave Stewart.

[MrTPlush]

Look at what the Braves got for a comparable kid in Shelby Miller. Dansby Swanson who has all star potential.

 

Jimmy Nelson isn't even remotely close to Shelby Miller. Jimmy Nelson doesn't have an MLB track. Shelby Miller had two seasons with an ERA near 3.00. 10 good starts is absolutely nothing. A few bad starts and his ERA will explode. To have an ERA that low all season you have to be very good and very consistent.

 

I will agree their peripherals are similar, but track record and results goes a long way for trade value. I think a Shelby Miller type trade is what the Brewers would look for, but I seriously doubt anyone is going to offer that if he has half a good season. You never know though...

[splitterpfj]

The reason the Brewers should ask, is because there won't be pitching solutions waiting to be signed next winter. If you're trying to win now/next year, you'll have to trade to fill any pitching holes you've got. All by itself, supply and demand raises Nelson's value, so go for it, and if the offer isn't there, you've got Jimmy Nelson in the Brewers' rotation.

[Austin Tatious]

Look at what the Braves got for a comparable kid in Shelby Miller. Dansby Swanson who has all star potential.

 

Jimmy Nelson isn't even remotely close to Shelby Miller. Jimmy Nelson doesn't have an MLB track. Shelby Miller had two seasons with an ERA near 3.00. 10 good starts is absolutely nothing. A few bad starts and his ERA will explode. To have an ERA that low all season you have to be very good and very consistent.

 

I will agree their peripherals are similar, but track record and results goes a long way for trade value. I think a Shelby Miller type trade is what the Brewers would look for, but I seriously doubt anyone is going to offer that if he has half a good season. You never know though...

 

Agree to disagree. Big time. We are way off in our views. I wouldn't trade Nelson for Miller straight up.

[brewcrewdue80]

Look at what the Braves got for a comparable kid in Shelby Miller. Dansby Swanson who has all star potential.

 

Jimmy Nelson isn't even remotely close to Shelby Miller. Jimmy Nelson doesn't have an MLB track. Shelby Miller had two seasons with an ERA near 3.00. 10 good starts is absolutely nothing. A few bad starts and his ERA will explode. To have an ERA that low all season you have to be very good and very consistent.

 

I will agree their peripherals are similar, but track record and results goes a long way for trade value. I think a Shelby Miller type trade is what the Brewers would look for, but I seriously doubt anyone is going to offer that if he has half a good season. You never know though...

 

What 2years did Miller produce?. Nelson has been and is better than Shelby Miller. Why? I sat through Miller's first 2seasons for fantasy. I think he pitched IN to the 7th inning&beyond less than 10 times. He consistently was removed in the 6th inning. I'll post this and edit

 

23 of 63 starts his 1st 2seasons were quality starts. He averaged 5.2IP overall in those 63starts.

 

Nelson. 25 of 53Starts Quality starts. With 5.85IP avg. Touch better than half an out more. This with a hitters ballpark over StL.

 

He's done more than Shelby prior to going to Atl.

 

Oh and now Miller has a 7ERA after exiting the friendly confines of Atlanta stadium. His 1! Good season. Nelson has 10more Starts before he reaches that equation for comparison to Miller's.

[pacopete4]

Yeah but Shelby Miller pitched for the Cardinals so he must be better.

[logan82]

Shelby Miller previous to this year looks pretty good. Two years with an ERA just over 3.00. Even with this poor year he still has an ERA almost half a run lower than Nelson. Miller was third in the ROY voting in 2013. In this era of deep bullpens short starts are the norm so quality starts is not really a useful way to judge a pitcher. Nelson has 10 good starts this year on par with what Miller did prior to going to Atlanta.

 

Digging deeper into the peripherals I would expect similar performance out of both since their career K/9 and BB/9 are pretty similar. Taking age into consideration I think it is likely Miller is playing through some kind of injury rather than he suddenly forgot how to pitch. I would expect Miller to end up with a worse ERA than Nelson this year but only because of how they both started.

[Austin Tatious]

I have the MLB pass so I've Shelby Miller. He has good arm talent but he's showing no further development. There's no upward tick with his career. He's already been traded twice. He's not a reliable kid; he's oft-injured with something or the other. The lack of durability is a huge negative.

 

Jimmy Nelson is trending upward. He's a tough competitor who will battle even on nights without his best stuff. And he's taking the ball every fifth day with the goal of going deep into the game. Nelson, unlike Miller, is showing further development every year. His repertoire is improving. Miller has leveled off.

 

Stearns and Arnold have two choices.

 

1. Trade Nelson for a haul comparable to what Miller got.

2. Keep him and enjoy the benefits.

 

There is no acceptable answer on Nelson that would be "trade him for less than the return on Miller." That would be malpractice.

[MrTPlush]

What Shelby Miller is doing right now means nothing. We are talking about what he looked like at the moment he was traded and where his value was...not after. You can insult Shelby Miller all you want, but he still has three good seasons to Nelson's ZERO good seasons(maybe one if we get generous).

 

I wouldn't trade him for anything less than a Shelby Miller type trade either(heck I would probably want more) because he has the potential to be very simlar to what Shelby Miller did in the past. He has a long way to get there though and a team would have to buy into his potential. I am not knocking on Nelson and I do think he is a similar pitcher to Miller, but when it comes to trade value it just isn't that close yet without the track record of success.

[brewcrewdue80]

Plush do you understand that Nelson has 1 full season of starts and working on his 2nd currently? Miller had 2 full seasons of starts when he was traded the first time. And then a 3rd prior to his 2nd trade. In the Realm of Team Control Arcs, Nelson is doing better his 2nd year starting than Miller and he's on pace in year two to put up what Miller did for his 3rd year in Pitcher haven Atlanta. 200+IP and a 3ERA.

 

Comparing the two's 2nd full season as starter, Nelson has improving numbers while Miller's numbers remained either flat or worsened.

 

There will be more starts prior to any trade involving Nelson so this 2nd season sample size will increase.

Nelson has now thrown 23.1IP w/o giving up a HR after 8 in his first 41.1IP. And overall just 2HRs given up on the road in 21.1IP.

That's going to be considered in a trade the park factors as well as the improvement. Never mind the 4 years of team control of maybe 27million in cost for such performance. This is different than Peralta and the potential upside. Peralta never reduced his Hits allowed per 9IP. And didn't maintain a respectable K/9. But I'm one of the only who see's him being a #2 at current rate vs. just a solid #3, while Peralta was a #3 with #2 upside who I think has caused too many here to be less optimistic and overly cautious.

[MrTPlush]

You can't even begin to compare his second season to Shelby Miller's because Nelson has just started his. You are trying to assume he will stay on this pace when he only has 64innings under his belt. You have no 2nd full season to compare. Nelson has a 3 ERA after two months(10 starts) and Shelby Miller has a 3 ERA over two different years(64 starts).

 

I'd also question Nelson's numbers improving this year. Most are quite similar or slightly worse. He has given up less hits, but I sense that as a bit of luck not a true improvement.