Jimmy Nelson

[SRB]

Nelson has a 4.62 FIP this season. He had a 4.11 ERA last season. I guess he's technically the best since Gallardo, almost by default, but he's really not that good.

 

Sheets is the only Brewers-developed pitcher in recent memory who was truly great.

 

There's a part about Fip that generally sends some disbeliefs in accuracy. You see numbers and certain affects it seems. HRs and Ks. Lower ERA but Higher HR/lower than 8 K rate? Fip jumps. Low HR/high K Fip is lower. Pitching in launching pad that is MP gives me some I don't really believe this Fip number if he's pitching in LA or SD type of ballparks. Junior Guerra's numbers prior to today are fairly close to Nelson. 3.2Fip 1HR allowed. I'll be interested to see where his Fip goes after another HR given up but 11ks today. Nelson pitching to 7.1hits/9 is impressive. Any starter that doesn't give up 8.5+ to me depending on BB/9 stands to be better than a Peralta who's 9.7+ on his career.

 

Johnny Cueto in 2014 had a 3.3Fip to a 2.25ERA. 22HRs but 6.2hit/9

2013 3.81Fip to 2.82ERA (60IP/ 7HRs) 6.8hits/9.

2012 3.21Fip to 2.78ERA 15HRs but 8.5hits/9 Less HRs and Ks/9 but higher Hits and the closest his ERA resembled Fip.

 

Nelson keeps producing under 8hits/9 he will outproduce his Fip continually. Half a year of Cueto netted Brandon Finnegan, Cody Redd, and John Lamb. 3 SPs. A trade of Nelson had better beat that if I'm even considering a trade of him. Mentioned Red Sox. Devers, Benintendi, Kopech, and Trey Ball would be my asking.

 

Yes, but even if you are skeptical of FIP, Nelson is a 4.00 ERA pitcher in his career. Having a 3.00 ERA after a handful of starts in 2016 (when his peripherals have not improved any) does not really make him a great starter...

 

I think you're going to be disappointed if you're valuing him anywhere near Cueto. Rafael Devers is a nonstarter.

[brewcrewdue80]

Nelson if traded this year is a 500k 4.5years of team control remaining SP producing today. Devers is in A ball. Nelson is on his way to 200+IP with that 4years of team control beyond this season. Under 1mil cost. Nelson has a more of a sure thing than Devers like Kopech/Ball. Benintendi is only player that appears to have the ML level future guarantee. The other 3 are wildcards. Nelson isn't. Boston if trading to win in next 3years are better off with Nelson than waiting on these 4 who maybe have 100games total at the ML level to that point.

You say he hasn't improved on peripherals. But his Hits/9 have decreased. He's avg 6.5IP a start vs 5.9IP a start. While maintaining the other peripherals vs getting worse. So he's improving and certainly gaining on a #2 type of starter with them in his 2nd full year as a SP.

Money+Production=serious return in trade.

[CheezWizHed]

Jimmy's MiLB career normally went like this:

1) First year at a level: 4+ ERA

2) Second year at a level: < 3.00 ERA (2.74 at AA and 1.46 at AAA Nashville)

 

Given that he has had about 1.25 seasons at the MLB level going into 2016, this is the year to see what he can do. So I think its premature to trade him. I think his peak is still coming.

 

As for his results this year, his rate stats are remarkably similar except this BAA (.242 vs .216) and BABIP (.285 vs .239). Typically you might look at that alone and say that he is going to regress at some point. But I noticed another difference. His is throwing his splitter more this year (36.4 vs 49.4%) and all of his other pitches less:

FB: -3.7%

Slider: -5.0%

Knuckle Curve: -3.3%

 

While I suspect that he won't keep his BABIP quite this low, I'd suspect that being able to throw more splitters while keeping his K and BB rates flat has contributed to part of his lower BAA.

 

Edit - And while at fangraphs digging up the above information, I found this articlefrom 2 weeks ago (hence the slight change in stats). They spotted some of the same trends that I did, plus a couple more.

[TheCrew07]

I can't believe this is being seriously discussed. This is a franchise that has spent ridiculous amounts on mediocre pitchers past their prime and Nelson comes along and shows signs of being the best starter they've produced since at least Gallardo and possibly Sheets and people want him dealt? Premier pitching is too hard to come by for small markets. No return would be enough.

 

Didn't you once say the same the thing of Peralta?

[brewmann04]

I sorry but I am in the no trade Nelson Camp

[brewerfan82]

I can't believe this is being seriously discussed. This is a franchise that has spent ridiculous amounts on mediocre pitchers past their prime and Nelson comes along and shows signs of being the best starter they've produced since at least Gallardo and possibly Sheets and people want him dealt? Premier pitching is too hard to come by for small markets. No return would be enough.

On a team that isn't expected to contend for a couple years, every player is available for a price. Since they can afford to wait out any growing pains, his value to the Brewers should be based on his potential rather than his current production and is likely higher than other teams value him, but you definitely listen to offers if teams are interested. If we were contending for a playoff spot and Nelson was our best pitcher, then it'd be silly to trade him, but that's not the situation this year and likely won't be for at least a couple more seasons.

[JohnBriggs12]

I can't believe this is being seriously discussed. This is a franchise that has spent ridiculous amounts on mediocre pitchers past their prime and Nelson comes along and shows signs of being the best starter they've produced since at least Gallardo and possibly Sheets and people want him dealt? Premier pitching is too hard to come by for small markets. No return would be enough.

On a team that isn't expected to contend for a couple years, every player is available for a price. Since they can afford to wait out any growing pains, his value to the Brewers should be based on his potential rather than his current production and is likely higher than other teams value him, but you definitely listen to offers if teams are interested. If we were contending for a playoff spot and Nelson was our best pitcher, then it'd be silly to trade him, but that's not the situation this year and likely won't be for at least a couple more seasons.

 

In two years, they can have Nelson and Hader as 1-2 in their rotation in either order. That's assuming of course Hader's not making his 75th or so start in AA. That alone can make their rotation worthy of wild card contenders unless they purposely are trying not to be.

[adambr2]

I can't believe this is being seriously discussed. This is a franchise that has spent ridiculous amounts on mediocre pitchers past their prime and Nelson comes along and shows signs of being the best starter they've produced since at least Gallardo and possibly Sheets and people want him dealt? Premier pitching is too hard to come by for small markets. No return would be enough.

On a team that isn't expected to contend for a couple years, every player is available for a price. Since they can afford to wait out any growing pains, his value to the Brewers should be based on his potential rather than his current production and is likely higher than other teams value him, but you definitely listen to offers if teams are interested. If we were contending for a playoff spot and Nelson was our best pitcher, then it'd be silly to trade him, but that's not the situation this year and likely won't be for at least a couple more seasons.

 

In two years, they can have Nelson and Hader as 1-2 in their rotation in either order. That's assuming of course Hader's not making his 75th or so start in AA. That alone can make their rotation worthy of wild card contenders unless they purposely are trying not to be.

 

The problem is you are projecting Nelson to be a #1/#2 when he's only our #1 by default, and you are projecting Hader to be a #1/#2. We don't know if Hader will even stick in the rotation yet, much less at the top of it.

 

Realistically, Nelson and Hader aren't the top 2 starters on a contending team unless they have 3 other equally competent starters also in the rotation. For it to play out the way you say, pretty much every best case scenario in the career's of Nelson and Hader has to come into play. That's way too much to expect IMO, much like many of us 2 years ago expected Peralta to be an ace by now.

 

We have a long ways to go to rebuild this rotation.

[fondybrewfan]

Even if Nelson isn't a #1 and never will be a #1 it sure as heck would benefit the Brewers to have a guy like Nelson maybe be a 3rd or 4th starter 2-3 years from now when we are competing again. At some point if we want to compete there is going to have to be some sort of veteran presence on the pitching staff. We can't rely on 5 guys that have 2 or less years of experience. Nelson is frickin Jeff Suppan or Kyle Lohse here. If we keep him around for 3-5 more years he is still a young pre peak or peak pitcher. We should have all sorts of payroll flexibility. Yes if someone inquires on Nelson you listen but it would take an awful lot IMO.

[adambr2]

Yeah, I'm not saying to trade him, just that we shouldn't be counting on him to be the cornerstone of this rotation.

 

I do agree that we need to treat him as such when it comes to listening to trade offers, and therefore I think it's likely we ask more than anyone is willing to pay.

[MrTPlush]

Nelson and Hader as our 1/2 punch? I don't know many scouts that think either is more than a #3 starter. Yikes

[paul253]

Even if Nelson isn't a #1 and never will be a #1 it sure as heck would benefit the Brewers to have a guy like Nelson maybe be a 3rd or 4th starter 2-3 years from now when we are competing again

 

Yeah but don't forget if we trade him we get stuff back. Ideally if you trade Nelson you get at least two prospects that can be just as good, or better, than Nelson. I'm fine with hanging onto him because I think he can still increase his trade value. But if you can get two pitching prospects with #2 potential, ideally at A+ ball or higher, I'd seriously consider it.

[brewmann04]

NO One has any clue that any of the pitchers in our system is going to work out and we already have Nelson as one of our 5 bulding blocks.

[paul253]

Yeah but the economics of baseball are such that right when we expect t to start competing Nelson is going to start getting expensive. He will also be approaching 30 by then (he's about to turn 27), which is usually when players start to decline in health and/or performance. I like Nelson and I'm certainly not on the trade him now bandwagon. But he's not untouchable, nor should he be.

[adambr2]

I like Nelson, I really do, but I also think some have an unrealistic outlook of who he is. He's a nice pitcher for any rotation. He's not, and probably never will be, an ace, or a #1 type pitcher. You want to stack him up against the Arrietas, the Kershaws, the Bumgarners, sorry, he's just not close.

 

He's our #1 by default. He's probably a long-term #3, which does have a lot of value these days. But he's not the guy who is going to be the key piece to put us back in the playoffs.

[FVBrewerFan]

I also think some have unrealstic expectations about how long this rebuild will take. Will Nelson be a part of the rotation when this team is truly competitive again? Possibly, but I doubt it.

 

But I'm also in the camp that you're not trying to move him necessarily, and I really doubt they would get an offer that makes sense this year. But he's no more untradable than anyone else.

[adambr2]

I also think some have unrealstic expectations about how long this rebuild will take. Will Nelson be a part of the rotation when this team is truly competitive again? Possibly, but I doubt it.

 

But I'm also in the camp that you're not trying to move him necessarily, and I really doubt they would get an offer that makes sense this year. But he's no more untradable than anyone else.

 

Pretty much agree on all counts except I think there's at least a 50/50 chance that we give Nelson a long-term extension at some point and try to buy out some arbitration and free agency years.

 

But like you say, we're not motivated to move him. He's still cheap and controlled for awhile. No one is untouchable, but in the case of Nelson, we need someone to pay us like he's already a young, cheap, high end starter. Since I don't think he's viewed that way around the league just yet, I doubt anyone will meet that price, so Nelson probably stays at least for awhile.

[brewcrewdue80]

GP GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO W L

33 33 0 0 214.2 169 88 74 29 85 169 15 11

 

P/GS WHIP BAA ERA

94.1 1.18 .221 3.07

 

 

Here's ESPN's projection based on Nelson pitching to the numbers he's at for 33starts. 214IP at 3.07ERA is stats #2s put up. His BBs are about 20-24 too high and Ks about 30+ too low but that change makes him producing Ace numbers.

 

If you think 214IP at 3.07ERA with 170Ks is #3 results, Then I wonder if you'd really call Bumgarner/Kershaw Aces. Bumgarner the last 2 seasons has gone 217/218 IP and a 2.93/2.98ERA Sure Ks were a 226 avg and bbs a 42 avg. But that's what I'm pointing at. If Nelson improves 1K more a Start and 1BB less a start he's posting Ace numbers similar to Bumgarner.

 

That literally is the difference for Nelson between him and Bumgarner. He turns that extra BB in to a K he is a Bumgarner producing pitcher. Nelson's GB% is better than Bumgarner's on his career. LD% equal. HR/FB% 2% difference in career which MP vs SF home stadiums? That's impressive Can't believe Bumgarner is even at 9.3% to Nelson's 11.3.

 

But go ahead tell me how Nelson is just a #3 SP performer vs #2.

BABIP right? HRs isn't a Ball in Play to that stat. So when his HR/FB% comes back to norms and he's allowing base hits to raise that BABIP. That's better than giving up Run/s on a single swing of the bat.

[brewerfan82]

The problem is you're extrapolating a small sample size of 58 innings. I'm not saying he doesn't have the potential to continue producing at that rate, but that's much better than he did over a full season just last year (4.11 ERA, 1.286 WHIP) while his FIP just keeps going up each year (2.95, 3.78, 4.10, 4.59). And I think any pitcher would be pretty dramatically better if you increase his K/9 by 1 and decrease his BB/9 by 1, I just don't know that's very likely or happens often.

 

Again, I like Nelson and I think he could be a part of the next competitive team's rotation, and I doubt they're actively shopping him, but I also don't think you hold onto him just to hold onto him if you're offered a package you like.

[FVBrewerFan]

I also think some have unrealstic expectations about how long this rebuild will take. Will Nelson be a part of the rotation when this team is truly competitive again? Possibly, but I doubt it.

 

But I'm also in the camp that you're not trying to move him necessarily, and I really doubt they would get an offer that makes sense this year. But he's no more untradable than anyone else.

 

Pretty much agree on all counts except I think there's at least a 50/50 chance that we give Nelson a long-term extension at some point and try to buy out some arbitration and free agency years.

 

But like you say, we're not motivated to move him. He's still cheap and controlled for awhile. No one is untouchable, but in the case of Nelson, we need someone to pay us like he's already a young, cheap, high end starter. Since I don't think he's viewed that way around the league just yet, I doubt anyone will meet that price, so Nelson probably stays at least for awhile.

 

Good point. Definitely a candidate to sign long term for a reasonable contract. Definitely open to that, if they could lock him in to say a 6 year contract than doesn't break the bank. We can debate is if he's a #1 or #3, whatever, but at the very least he is "solid" starter I would be comfortable having in the rotation.

[QuevedosTongue]

I wouldn't give him any kind of a long-term deal right now. He's been okay, but consider that his walk rate is up, his K rate is down and his BABIP is much lower than his career mark. Those 3 indicators tell me that he is not actually improving and that his success this season has more good luck than normal involved. The sample size is small, but if the first 2 trends continue and his BABIP regresses to the mean, he's going to feel like the #3/4 SP that his peripherals indicate.

 

Sometimes people start to fall in love with someone because he is the team's best player at a position, even if he's not that good. Nelson isn't bad, he isn't great. He's better than replacement-level for sure, but not someone I would be looking to lock up for any kind of long-term deal. There is no reason to not go year-to-year with any player that is not an elite talent.

[billymac]

I think it depends on how this trading deadline/draft and winter go.

 

I am hoping that between Lucroy, Jeffress, Smith and maybe Carter there should be a good influx of talent into the farm system and hopefully some younger top of the rotation arms.

 

If Lucroy gets hurt within the next 6 weeks and we can't deal him we could be in trouble prospectwise.

 

If someone then came to us and offered us the Shelby Miller package with us unable to trade Lucroy, I'd gladly accept this winter. If we don't have any future Top of the Rotation starters that will be within Jimmy's timeframe, I think you have to trade him while his value is high.

 

If we have a Groome/Puk/Pint and Tate or Ortiz waiting to come up in a few years come August 1st, different story.

[FVBrewerFan]

I wouldn't give him any kind of a long-term deal right now. He's been okay, but consider that his walk rate is up, his K rate is down and his BABIP is much lower than his career mark. Those 3 indicators tell me that he is not actually improving and that his success this season has more good luck than normal involved. The sample size is small, but if the first 2 trends continue and his BABIP regresses to the mean, he's going to feel like the #3/4 SP that his peripherals indicate.

 

Sometimes people start to fall in love with someone because he is the team's best player at a position, even if he's not that good. Nelson isn't bad, he isn't great. He's better than replacement-level for sure, but not someone I would be looking to lock up for any kind of long-term deal. There is no reason to not go year-to-year with any player that is not an elite talent.

 

Yea, I'm not in love with him. But what's wrong with locking up a SP long term, even if he is a #3 type? Obviously, the caveat is at what price. He's been durable, and there is value in having a dependable #3 type SP locked up long term, no?

[MrTPlush]

Yea, I'm not in love with him. But what's wrong with locking up a SP long term, even if he is a #3 type? Obviously, the caveat is at what price. He's been durable, and there is value in having a dependable #3 type SP locked up long term, no?

 

I doubt Jimmy Nelson is willing to sell himself as a #3 starter at this point so how team friendly would a long term deal really be. Also when you add in all that luck etc. what would his stats even look like? Would his ERA even be under 4? My main problem is people are getting overly excited about Nelson and overall I think he is doing worse this year than last. That doesn't make me want to rush for an extension. I would let him ride out the season and then decide whether or not to offer an extension.

[TheCrew07]

I find it highly unlikely that Jimmy Nelson develops enough to be a solid #2 year in and year out, much less an Ace. He's already come so far, truth is he was a pick I hated on draft day, he was just big bodied guy with averagish stuff drawing comparisons to Suppan in his prime. I was completely underwhelmed at the time and he's progressed so much that I'm not sure how much farther he can really go.

 

If a pitcher is a perennial #3 then he shouldn't be part of the "core" of the team, the object should be to make that kind of pitcher replaceable in the organization. To often a true #3 is either our #2 or #1 on the Brewers... the issue here has rarely been the offense, it's almost always been the pitching.

 

In the same way if a position player is worth less than 3 WAR (to put a soft number on it) on a yearly basis that player should not be extended and made part of the core either. If a player isn't truly special then he's replaceable, Melvin held onto homegrown Brewers from the first too long, extending Weeks and Hart when he shouldn't have given their age, health, and production.

 

Many of us are older and grew up in an era of "team for life" but that's not the reality of modern sports, very few players are going to spend their career with one team, and the ones that do are going to be vastly overpaid as they decline, something the Brewers can ill afford. Milwaukee has to get more wins per dollar than the competition, we're the smallest market in baseball and the Brewers simply aren't able to afford wasting double digit millions on unproductive players every year for the sake of marketing. At least not if winning a championship is the ultimate goal... if selling tickets and being "competitive" and popular is the goal then they can operate as they have, but that's not good enough for me personally. I'm not exactly sure where the Brewers come out on the championship vs competitive thing, we've discussed that subject a great deal over the years and I've never been sold that my goals aligned with the Brewers true goal for any particular season.

 

On this Brewer's roster no player is untouchable, going back to 2008 I would have said maybe 2 or 3 were untouchable (Braun and Gallardo for sure), but I would have traded Fielder or Hart for young impact pitching in a heartbeat (yes I know I've been beating the same drum for almost a decade now and I'm sorry, but that's how I see it). It's not that Fielder didn't deserve to be a core player, it's that he wasn't willing to be a core player for Milwaukee and was always going to take the money... letting him walk for a comp pick didn't seem like very good value to me.