Jeremy Jeffress

[MrTPlush]

According to Ken Rosenthal the Brewers would need to be blown away to trade Jeffress. Possibly a return similar to what Ken Giles commanded. He mentions their strong relationship with each other as a big reason they are reluctant to trade him.

 

With all due respect I think it is a bit ridiculous the Brewers reportedly want such a ridiculous return for Jeffress. Jeffress isn't even in the same dimension as Giles and in all honesty Jeffress isn't anything special. Don't get me wrong he is a solid reliever, but not up there with the elite. Relievers fall off the earth faster than they land on it. How many times do we see a reliever put up an incredible season or two and then suddenly become average at best? Way too often.

 

I am not saying we should be taking the first offer, but I don't think we should be asking for the moon times ten.

[pacopete4]

Could be a ploy to get more but maybe it could have to do with what Jeffress went through to get to where he is now. Might have a personal tie with the organization that we are not aware of. Not saying I agree with either. Just throwing a bunch at the wall to see if anything sticks.

[brewcrewdue80]

This is the kind of talk I want to hear. I said preseason I'd rather Jeffress try closer over Smith. The DL stint took care of that. He's older and GMs just fall over themselves for Closers. Having an individual with Closer experience? Voila instant upgrade in value. Is he Ken Giles value? No. But easily more than KRods value was. Happy for his success. There isn't a real reason to trade him this season unless it's momentous. You can trade him in off-season. His value can be on the rise. Taking just a good offer and the next topic to comments on will be did we trade JJ to soon? You want him before deadline? You give us a great offer.

[paul253]

I like Jeffress and don't want to see him go but it makes little sense to keep him long. I agree the offseason is probably the best time to move him. Let him build up some more value first. Closers are the most overrated position in baseball. If someone is willing to give up a solid prospect or two for Jeffress Id take it.

[MrTPlush]

I don't really know how much higher Jeffress' value can really go, but I do know any second he could turn into a pumpkin and be worth a bag of balls. Just look at Axford, he put up two incredible years and then BAM nothing.

 

Whether it be the deadline or the offseason I don't think it is worth the risk to hold onto Jeffress past this year. He isn't an elite reliever and some stupid GM will overpay for him. The Giles thing better be a ploy or else we are wasting a huge trade chip because no one is giving us that kind of deal. Heck is be happy with half the value the Phillies got.

[brewcrewdue80]

Understand your thoughts. The Phillies did trade a SS/2b 17yr old who reads about what Orlando Arcia would read to at that age/stage. Similar trade to Giles, well include a Franley Mallen, Nicolas Pierre, Gatewood or Harrison, or if looking at the now, a Villar/Rivera/Perez to pair with Jeffress. Anything that would possibly bring a TOR prospect back vs a mid-rotation/late innings prospect. That is what we need in the system. Majority of the other aspects are there. Team has to find a TOR. Nothing else really impacts the system.

[MrTPlush]

Nothing else really impacts the system.

 

You say that now until half the prospects we are counting on flop.

[brewcrewdue80]

Flop or not. we hit on all of them won't mean squat with a Pitching staff filled with #3s of ceiling and 0 TOR. Both playoff years this century, the team had to trade for that TOR arm since there was no development. We'll never be able to FA sign these types. Either trade and end up with a 1-3year window. Or find your TOR now while you're trading away players of value and hope they develop. Teams don't need a lineup full of All-Stars to win. 1 or 2 and 3-4 other bats that are League average will produce enough if you have the pitching to compliment. Cubs were exactly League avg in runs last season, the Mets just below. Didn't stop either of them for playing the NL Championship series. Year before that SF who won was barely above League avg. KC was just below. StL was 7th worst. League avg OPS was .721 last year from .700 the year before. .714 in '13. Santana already makes 1 bat that will exceed that. I'd imagine Arcia does as well with his low K rate. Phillips would appear to at least be one of the 3-4 at avg with upside for better. Give me 1 of Diaz/Nottingham. 1 of Lara/Clark 1 of Orimoloye/Harrison That's 6 players to be bats by 2018. It's not being too optimistic. There's 3 shoe-ins. And I'm expecting less than 50% to find 3more. The upcoming trades could lead to another bat. Or our #5 pick+top 10 pick in 2017.

Jeffress is 7-7 in Saves. Baltimore 6/15 Blown Save Opportunities. Seattle 5/15. Dodgers 5/15. Pittsburgh 4/14. That's #2/3 in AL standings and #8/5 in NL standings. Jeffress keeps it up and these teams keep blowing saves at the rate they are, Jeffress will be commanding some haul.

[jerichoholicninja]

I don't think Jeffress can bring back the same haul as Giles. Giles was a hyped prospect who lived up to expectations for a couple seasons. Jeffress flamed out and then finally figured it out after a couple organizations gave up on him. Giles is younger and has more years of control too. I think Jeremy can bring back a nice player or two if he's able to keep up what he's doing but not a monster haul.

[splitterpfj]

The years of control are the big difference, that's a major consideration, and the Phillies included a prospect with Giles as well.

 

I don't think anyone should ever get caught dreaming of a 5 for 2 trade involving Jeffress, but he's got plenty of value.

[Boomer5]

The years of control are the big difference, that's a major consideration, and the Phillies included a prospect with Giles as well.

 

I don't think anyone should ever get caught dreaming of a 5 for 2 trade involving Jeffress, but he's got plenty of value.

 

I think that was just setting the bar high and then go down from there. Jeffress has a lot of value. Not Giles last year value, which was high for ANY reliever, but big enough that he should bring back a high end package.

[MrTPlush]

The years of control are the big difference, that's a major consideration, and the Phillies included a prospect with Giles as well.

 

I don't think anyone should ever get caught dreaming of a 5 for 2 trade involving Jeffress, but he's got plenty of value.

 

I think that was just setting the bar high and then go down from there. Jeffress has a lot of value. Not Giles last year value, which was high for ANY reliever, but big enough that he should bring back a high end package.

 

I think there may be substance to the rumor of them having a good relationship etc. etc. and not wanting to trade him. The rumored asking price is ridiculously high. It is like the equivalent of asking for Lucas Giolito and Trea Turner in a Lucroy trade.

[Boomer5]

The years of control are the big difference, that's a major consideration, and the Phillies included a prospect with Giles as well.

 

I don't think anyone should ever get caught dreaming of a 5 for 2 trade involving Jeffress, but he's got plenty of value.

 

I think that was just setting the bar high and then go down from there. Jeffress has a lot of value. Not Giles last year value, which was high for ANY reliever, but big enough that he should bring back a high end package.

 

I think there may be substance to the rumor of them having a good relationship etc. etc. and not wanting to trade him. The rumored asking price is ridiculously high. It is like the equivalent of asking for Lucas Giolito and Trea Turner in a Lucroy trade.

 

I do think there is an unusually good relationship between Jeffress and the Brewers. They did save his career and arguably his life. In return, Jeffress has performed like a number one draft pick and kept himself clean.

 

That will be fine until someone on his side realizes he is a closer and should be paid like one. That's where we will see how good the relationship really is because I doubt the Brewers want to give him $8M+ per year in a long term deal like his stats will suggest.

[TURBO]

I think everyone is jumping the gun on Jeffress to this point. If he is putting these numbers up at the all star break, we might have something, but for now, it seems far too early to even suggest his trade value is as off the charts as some think...

[SRB]

Jeffress is basically just putting up his career averages, except K/9 which is actually low. He's a very solid reliever who is now demonstrating he can be closer and convert save opportunities (since teams actually care about that), so I imagine he has a fair amount of value.

[jerichoholicninja]

Jeffress is basically just putting up his career averages, except K/9 which is actually low. He's a very solid reliever who is now demonstrating he can be closer and convert save opportunities (since teams actually care about that), so I imagine he has a fair amount of value.

 

Ya, he's not pitching above his head. He's just getting S's instead of H's.

[trwi7]

He probably doesn't have Giles' value and never will just because Giles is younger and has more team control. Giles strikes out more guys but Jeffress gets a ton of ground balls and still has struck out 8.2 per 9 innings since coming back to the Brewers. Striking out almost a batter per inning and getting ground balls 58% of the time it's put in play is a good combination.

 

Now that he's racking up saves, his value is going up. I hope they sell high and they'll get a damn good return in July if they make him available and he keeps it up.

[3and2Fastball]

He isn't a free agent until 2020, and Stearns obviously recognizes he'll need 3-4 great relief pitchers in the window of 2018/2019/2020 if the Brewers are competing

 

Having said that, there isn't anything particularly special about Jeffress' season so far. He's been OK. A 1.244 WHIP and 5.3 K/9 is nothing to get excited about

[CheezWizHed]

Jeffress is basically just putting up his career averages, except K/9 which is actually low. He's a very solid reliever who is now demonstrating he can be closer and convert save opportunities (since teams actually care about that), so I imagine he has a fair amount of value.

 

Ya, he's not pitching above his head. He's just getting S's instead of H's.

 

[sarcasm]Wait, wait, wait... are you suggesting that just any reliever can pitch that 9th inning and get saves at the same rate as they get holds? That can't be...[/sarcasm]

[Oldcity]

Yeah, the best thing Jeffress is doing right now is limiting walks and homers, but that K rate is really low. You'd expect it to come up, but you'd also expect the BB and HR rates to rise a bit also. He's a solid reliever right now, but I am skeptical that any team thinks his value has risen a lot this year just because he's racked up some saves.

[Boomer5]

Yeah, the best thing Jeffress is doing right now is limiting walks and homers, but that K rate is really low. You'd expect it to come up, but you'd also expect the BB and HR rates to rise a bit also. He's a solid reliever right now, but I am skeptical that any team thinks his value has risen a lot this year just because he's racked up some saves.

 

There is the double edged sword of the save stat.

 

While I don't think ANY good reliever can be a closer (analytics hate the term clutch but it is a thing), saves by themselves are not a truly valuable stat.

 

However.....when it comes time for arbitration next year, if he is the full time closer and racks up say 40 saves, he will command a big number. So what do the Brewers do? Trade him before the salary gets big, or pay him as a closer?

[Outlander]

Big number is relative, the Brewers will again likely have a low payroll and it will just be a one year contract so not a whole lot of risk if they decide to keep him around. It should really come down to if Stearns gets his asking price or not, no rush to trade him. Could even trade him in the off season if concerned about his raise.

[Roderick]

However.....when it comes time for arbitration next year, if he is the full time closer and racks up say 40 saves, he will command a big number. So what do the Brewers do? Trade him before the salary gets big, or pay him as a closer?

 

Arbitration is scaled in. It being his first year next year, his cost will not be a big factor in the Brewers plans on whether to trade or not.

[billymac]

Sparky Fifer tweeted that he heard something on talk of JJ to the Nats to help their pen. Perhaps a Braun/Jeffress deal?

[Outlander]

He retweeted a blog suggesting the idea that it could be a good fit. I guess I see a pretty big difference between somebody throwing the idea out there (kind of like Bowden did with Braun to the Cubs or numerous ideas here) and actual rumors where the reporter/writer heard some inside info.