Draft news - Miscellaneous updates, mock drafts

[colbyjack]

Since there will likely be more and more general draft updates, that doesn't necessarily relate only to college and/or the high school levels, I thought I'd start an updated and more general 2006 draft thread.

 

BA has a story out today about how the Royals may be expanding their list of those eligible for their first overall pick, citing that the talent pool is weak. Personally I think this excuse is pretty weak, as I think what they are essentially saying is that they don't want to pay the $4.5 million-plus for Andrew Miller (KCBrewerfan, I haven't forgotten about our friendly wager).

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...26940.html

 

The story also stocks a little bit more about the talent available for the draft. The story fails to mention a few notable players that have been on the rise that I covered in a recent Crack of the Bat column. A few players have risen up their list that I have covered with greater attention lately, such as David Huff, Wade LeBlanc, Stephen Wright, Nathan Culp and Josh Butler, although they still have several pitchers rated far too low IMO.

 

Here's their updated list of draft eligible collegians (for subscribers only):

 

www.baseballamerica.com/o...26941.html

 

Brad Lincoln, who is now BA's #3 ranked college player

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/blincoln06428309bm.jpg

[natedogge7]

i was hoping lincoln would be available in the supp 1st round but that wont happen now.

 

we looking at top 10 pick here colby?

[brettac1]

Are there any mock drafts out there at all, or is it too early?

[colbyjack]

Lincoln was rated too high to open the season to be available in the first-round supplemental round. Now I think it is safe to say that he'll go in the top 10, if not the top 3-5 overall. If as a Dodgers fan you want him, and he's available at #7 overall, you should feel pretty lucky that he's there.

 

And no, there haven't been any mock drafts to speak of. I have seen a couple on the Scout.com network, but most of that information is for subscribers only, and it's not worth the price you pay (and I can tell from reading other fan's attempts at draft coverage out there that most of them get quite a bit of their draft information from Brewerfan.net anyway). For mock drafts in particular, it is way to early to guess even at this point in time. As we well know, signability often plays a bigger role of who goes where than actual talent.

 

In a month from now we should have a better idea of who is going to go where. I still believe the Royals' pick will surprise (disappoint) people.

 

On another topic, Jim Callis addresses some draft issues in his recent AskBA column:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...26969.html

 

Quote:

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Teams with the No. 1 overall choice have that pick because they were awful the previous season, and they can't afford to draft for need. They simply have to take the best player available. In the Royals' case, they have so many holes that they're not going to fall into a trap of targeting a specific position.

 

North Carolina lefthander Andre Miller was the consensus top prospect entering the season, and he has done nothing to change that. Two scouting directors I spoke to this week said Miller would be their guy if they owned the top pick. "Miller would go 1-1 today, tomorrow, June 7 or whenever you want to have the draft," one said.

 

In March, Kansas City scouting director Deric Ladnier said the club was zeroing in on Miller and three college righthanders: Daniel Bard (North Carolina), Ian Kennedy (Southern California) and Max Scherez (Missouri). But Scherzer has missed time with a finger injury and shoulder tendinitis, while Bard and Kennedy haven't totally lived up to their hype. Miller's delivery and command are less than polished, and some scouts believe he projects better as a closer than as a frontline starter. Given those developments, Ladnier told BA's John Manuel today that Kansas City is expanding its search.

 

If the Royals have a number of candidates and no prospect who stands clearly above the rest, then signability could play a factor in their choice. If they consider several players equally worthy, why wouldn't they take the cheapest? Before they spent a club-record $4 million bonus on Gordon, the No. 2 overall pick last year, they saved money on their first-round picks in the previous two drafts.

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I can't believe any scout thinks Andrew Miller is a future closer. Maybe before this year, but Miller has answered almost every single question out there regarding him IMO. He has sacrificed some of his velocity (working more 90-93 now than 95-97 in the past) for control, and is incorporating both a two-seamer and a cutter more into his repertoire. In other words, he has learned to pitch more, which is why he is carving up batters at a high rate this spring. As we've seen from some first-hand reports such as the one from Dave Cameron from USS Mariner, Miller also does a very good job inducing groundballs as well as missing bats. That is a very good combination to have, and makes Miller the no-brainer for the 1st overall selection.

 

If the Royals reach and mess up the pick by thinking of anything other than talent, they are doomed to continue to be as bad as they have been.

[brettac1]

How quick does Miller arrive, Patrick? Will he go on that same developmental path that a guy like Verlander did, or is he not even close to as good of a prospect?

[colbyjack]

As much as I liked Verlander two years ago, I didn't think he would progress as quickly as he has. His command and control have improved dramatically since entering pro ball, as I thought his timetable would have an added year or two than what it's been.

 

So while Miller is as good of a prospect as Verlander is (or was, now), it's hard to say if he will follow that same path. Even if Verlander took an extra year to develop that would still be considered an extremely fast progression. I'll say mid-to-late 2008 for Miller, as he won't pitch this summer, will debut and pitch at A+ and AA in '07, will open '08 at AAA. That timeline is bumped up a year if Miller opens '07 at AA and cruises through AAA within months like Verlander did.

 

In fact, the pitcher's available for this year's draft are comparable to those available in '04:

 

Andrew Miller = Jeff Niemann (minus the injuries)

Ian Kennedy = Jered Weaver (size-wise they're way off, but both had great success using less than dominant pure stuff)

Max Scherzer = Justin Verlander/Thomas Diamond (great pure stuff)

Daniel Bard = Wade Townsend (the teammate of MIller/Niemann that is a little perplexing)

Brad Lincoln = Phillip Humber (good fastball-curveball combo)

Wade LeBlanc/David Huff = Jeremy Sowers (unless it's a signability deal, neither LeBlanc nor Huff will go nearly as high as Sowers did)

 

And Longoria could very well be similar to Stephen Drew. Drew's value obviously was increased in that he can play SS (although I'm not convinced Longoria can't), can swipe some bags for you and bats left-handed (it always helps).

 

It is a similar year talent-wise to '04.

[GagneCY03]

Funny that you use those comparisons, CJ, as I've compared the talent in this year's draft with 2004 and come up with about the same types of comps. I actually compared Morrow to Verlander due to their control issues in college and great fastballs. But the two drafts are eerily similar. I just hope the Dodgers can land a Homer Bailey type at #7.

 

And if you ever feel like doing a mock draft, let me know. I'd love to be in on it.

[colbyjack]

Actually, Morrow might be the perfect comp for Thomas Diamond, who had a very good fastball but everything else was in question. Morrow does have a wicked split-fingered fastball, but that pitch won't let him succeed as a starter alone. BA reported earlier this week that Morrow's curveball has improved, and he did flash a good one last summer on the Cape.

 

The big difference with Verlander (realizing these comps are just for kicks) is that Verlander had a huge breaking ball coming out of college, much like Scherzer does. Both are big, strong guys with two big pitches that really only have/had questions about their changeups. Their stuff is so good that neither needs one much, although Scherzer's reportedly has been throwing a pretty good one this spring when he's been healthy.

 

The comparisons really don't continue as well to the HS side. Drabek could be this year's Texas fireballer, but he doesn't have the Texas-sized stature of Bailey, Beckett, Wood, etc. I suppose Dellin Betances could be this year's Mark Rogers in that he's from a northern state, hasn't pitched as much but the sky's the limit. The prep class needs a positional player to be excited about.

 

I still contend that the biggest aspect of this year's draft that will mirror the '04 draft (and the '02 draft) is my guess that the Royals will screw up the first overall pick.

[colbyjack]

Jim Callis takes a stab at the top 20 prospects available for this June's draft. I don't agree with a lot of his rankings, but that's irrelevant:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...61098.html

 

Clayton Kershaw is definitely a player on the rise who has enjoyed a very big spring. I recently profiled him with the rest of the draft-eligible LHP worth noting:

 

www.brewerfan.net/ViewAma...;draftId=4

[natedogge7]

Quote:

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where he likely would garner some Zach Jackson comparisons.

---

 

isnt zach jackson a soft tossing finesse pitcher? Anyways, Kershaw is REALLY intriging.

 

I found a cool picture of him.

 

http://www.wfaa.com/sharedcontent/dws/img/v3/02-16-2006.ns_16cencover.G311QHR84.1.jpg

 

http://www.wfaa.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/highschools/schoolday/stories/021606dnspocentcover.170ce490.html

thats an article i found on him that mentions his hard slider.

 

In my mind, big tall lefty with high leg kick, tilted baseball cap, heavy boring fb, hard slider... is this kid dontrelle w/ 3-5 more mph on his fb?

[GagneCY03]

I wouldnt call Jackson a finesse guy, since he sits around 90, but Kershaw has been 91-94 all spring. Any word on his delivery, CJ?

[Blazer25]

I've seen Kershaw and I like him. I don't know if I like him 1st round or not though. By what I saw as an arm he'd be a sandwich-3rd round type guy.

 

He actually was more impressive with the bat this summer when I saw him than as a pitcher. He is a definite 2-way guy in college. The kid has some raw power.

 

Just goes to show you how wide open this year's draft is. You could ask 10 different GM's their top 10's and I'd bet you'd get at least 9 different answers.

[colbyjack]

isnt zach jackson a soft tossing finesse pitcher? Anyways, Kershaw is REALLY intriging.

 

The Zach Jackson comment is more in relationship to his size plus noting he would receive those IF he attended Texas A&M, where Jackson went (after transferring from Louisville that is).

 

And Zach Jack can get it up to the low-90s on occasion.

 

As Gagne noted, Kershaw has been in the low-90s consistently this spring after reports of him throwing in the upper-80s last summer. That jump definitely has bumped him up to first-round consideration.

 

One name notably absent on Callis' list is Brett Anderson. Unless he got hurt, there is no way any lefty jumped ahead of him.

 

Thanks for the picture too Nate. He definitely has been watching Dontrelle.

[colbyjack]

Baseball America has released their mid-season prep top prospect list, along with quite a few draft notes:

 

BA: Draft notes (for all readers)

 

BA: Midseason prep 50 prospects (subscribers)

 

I disagree with the comments on Brett Anderson. They claim he's too "soft." Who cares? They guy knows how to pitch. Fielding his position and covering first base are the last things I'm going to worry about with a player like him.

 

Clayton Kershaw (photo from Baseball America)

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/ckershaw06428309ds.jpg

[natedogge7]

What are the makeup concerns for drabek and kiker and Callis alluded too?

[GagneCY03]

Kershaw's rise + Drabek's character concerns = Kershaw being the pick at #7. Nice to see he's throwing a circle change in that photo. Guess I'll have to get the Jordan Walden tattoo removed and replace it with Clayton Kershaw. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Oh, and if the Dodgers could pull off Parmalee and Willems in their next two picks, I may die of happiness.

[colbyjack]

I've noted before that I didn't think the Royals would be buying whomever was considered the top pick in this year's draft. Well, I hate to say I told you so, because my heart goes out to Royals fans, but there are some pretty strong rumors that have popped up recently that they are talking to Tim Lincecum about a possible pre-draft deal for the first overall pick. Lincecum actually was draft eligible last year as a sophomore, but reported bonus demands (first-round money) caused him to slip pretty far in the draft (without looking I want to say the 43rd round to Cleveland). Word had it that he started to soften towards the end of the summer, likely with an itch to play pro ball after an amazing run on the Cape, but he returned to Washington for his junior year which will turn out to be the smartest move he ever made.

 

Of course, there's a lot of time remaining between now and draft day, so the Royals might have a few players that they're exchanging financial numbers with. Lincecum isn't the worst prospect in the world, despite my own skepticism, but passing on Andrew Miller, who IMO, and in the opinion of many others, is the top player available, is a big mistake for a team in desparate need for talent.

 

Like I said, we're still about six weeks out (we're pretty close now) to the draft, as a lot more can happen between now and then. However, if it does happen, the draft will shake out very similar to the 2002 and 2004 versions, and if it does and the pick proves to be a poor one, the Royals can only blame themselves as the writing is definitely on the wall.

 

Maybe they're planning ahead by saving up for David Price http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .

[Blazer25]

Quote:

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I disagree with the comments on Brett Anderson. They claim he's too "soft." Who cares? They guy knows how to pitch. Fielding his position and covering first base are the last things I'm going to worry about with a player like him

---

 

CJ,

 

I completely agree. Anderson is the best "pitcher" in the draft, he's probably advanced enough that you could start him at high A and he'd be successfull.

[colbyjack]

My interview with San Diego's Josh Butler is now up on Perfect Game's site:

 

PG Crack of the Bat: Josh Butler interview

 

I spoke with Tim Lincecum last night, look for that interview at some point in the next week or two.

[colbyjack]

MLB.com has released their draft coverage:

 

mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/ml.../index.jsp

 

I know a few people asked for a mock draft on a different threat, so I thought I'd point out that Jonathan Mayo takes a shot at the top 10 picks:

 

mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/ne...;fext=.jsp

[natedogge7]

couple things about mayos mock

 

1- if the tigers nab kershaw im going to cry

2- dont like the dodgers pick

3- I didnt know rowell was that good, maybe CJ can shed some more light on him

4- i would laugh at the giants if they draft bard

5- the first 5 picks seem to be the norm.

 

i also wonder if with strong finishes if chamberlain,scherzer and kennedy find their way back into the top 10.

[colbyjack]

Rowell has been rumored as a sleeper that could sneak way up into the first round. Don't be surprised by any pick this year. In my own mock draft on another thread I joked about the Orioles taking Drabek as a shortstop. While that may be far-fetched, I know quite a few draft-niks were stunned when the Pirates took John Van Benschoten in 2002...as a pitcher after hitting 30+ HRs at Kent State.

 

As for Chamberlain, Scherzer and Kennedy, I think Scherzer is the only one that could find himself going in the top 10, but even he has the Boras factor to deal with, and who is going to give into the money you know you're going to be dealing with for a guy who hasn't been healthy nearly the entire spring? Kennedy's struggles could cause him to plummet, long and hard, while Chamberlain is more of a mid-round first-round pick, and even he hasn't had the same kind of excitement surrounding him like he did when the season started.

 

Actually, they will be lucky if they are drafted in the first round, much less the top 10.

[colbyjack]

Jonathan Mayo has updated his mock draft, and expanded it to the top 20 teams. He has the Brewers taking Georgia RHP Brooks Brown:

 

mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/ne...;fext=.jsp

[GagneCY03]

Not sure how thrilled Brewer fans are with that pick, but I can speak for a lot of Dodger fans in saying they'd be very disappointed with Reynolds at #7. Do me a favor and give us Kershaw in your next mock, CJ. I'll love you forever. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[colbyjack]

I wasn't a huge fan of Reynolds up until a couple of weeks ago when I saw him pitch again. His numbers and performances in general typically haven't lived up to his size and stuff. However, when I saw him a few weeks ago, he was spotting his fastball a lot better, and flashed a very good curveball and a very good changeup (possibly his best pitch). He began by leaving his fastball up in the zone too much, but then did a much better job working down in the zone and induced a bunch of ground balls. While Reynolds doesn't seem like the high-potential target the Dodgers usually go after, he's 6'7", can touch 95 with his heater, works comfortably in the low-90s, and has gotten significantly better this year. I think he's gone before the Brewers make their pick.

 

Also, a lot has to be said about this year's draft. Throw out top prospect lists from BA, MLB and from yours truly, because we're probably going to see some wacky names being taken in wacky places. Don't get hung up on Reynolds going #7 overall just because so and so doesn't have him ranked that high.

 

And if the Tigers get hot on someone other than Kershaw, he's all yours http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif .