Expectations, time to revise again?

[1992casey]

Patrick, we posted at the same time. In case you missed it, check the message directly above yours.

 

The easiest thing to do is to check either Baseball Reference or Cot's for service time at the beginning of the given season, then compute from that point. That way, you avoid having to look at more than one season.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Expectations of the "Expectations, time to revise again?" thread, time to revise again?

 

 

My expectations won't change based on either a 4 game winning streak or a 5 game losing streak. The team is what it is. Every team has hot and cold streaks. Even a team that loses 100 games is going to have a few 4 or 5 game winning streaks (or longer) over the course of 162 games.

 

I didn't expect the rotation to be this horrifically bad, so if anything, my expectation that they could win 74-75 games might have been too cautiously optimistic.

[monty57]

There are not a few aces available every off-season. It's rare for an ace to be available on the open market. Even if there were a few, no, the Brewers can't compete financially for a true ace in the open market. If they could, they would have signed Sabathia at the time.

 

Completely different financial situation. We will have a lot of free cash flow going into the foreseeable future. I don't know that it would be smart to go into the $30M+ annual salary range, but we could do it.

 

Santana, Phillips, and Nottingham are far from guaranteed to be average players, let alone really good players. Sometimes it seems like we're playing fantasy baseball. Just plug this guy in here, another guy there. These are all talented players, but we all know how many really talented players never make it to MLB, let alone stick.

 

Sure they are question marks. So is everyone. However, Santana is already playing at the MLB level, and Phillips is a very good prospect, so they have better odds than most prospects.

 

So to compete in 2017/18 we basically need FOUR starting pitchers

 

I understand the frustration after watching how this team has pitched, but I don't think one month of poor play proves the quoted statement true. Peralta has proven in the past he can be a good pitcher. He may or may not "find it," but he certainly could. Anderson has a track record that shows he could be a decent middle-to-back-of-the-rotation starter, so I would expect him to level off into that role. Meanwhile, we can shuffle through the multitude of "fringy" guys we have in order to try to fill at least one middle-to-back-of-the-rotation spot before we see if some of our better prospects can fill the other spots.

 

Going into the future, let's say Nelson is a #2, Anderson can be a #4, and one of the Jungmann, Davies, Guerra, Cravy, etc ("Fringy group") can prove to be good enough to fill the #5 spot. Then we have a group of more talented guys in the upper minors (Hader, Houser, Kodi, Lopez, Ortega) from which we could hopefully fill at least one spot. By the end of next year, even without figuring Peralta in anywhere, it would seemingly take really bad luck to not have the #2-5 spots filled with guys we already have in the system. Then we have the probable trade of Lucroy, which will hopefully bring back another good starter, and the aforementioned cash to sign a top-of-the-rotation guy.

 

Of course prospects fail, but getting two pitchers out of the young guys we have at the AA/AAA/MLB levels seems reasonable. Then, we have a lot of pitching talent in the low minors. Hopefully, a few of these guys take the next step to continue to add talent to the Brewers as more years go by.

 

Any plan can fail, but I think it's a bit disingenuous to state that we have to completely gut our rotation and start from scratch, searching for FOUR guys when we should have most of the answers in-house already, we have plenty of money, and we have trade chips that should bring in more young talent.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't think it's disingenuous in the least to state we have to completely gut the rotation. In fact, it's already gutted.

 

Going into the future, let's say Nelson is a #2, Anderson can be a #4, and one of the Jungmann, Davies, Guerra, Cravy, etc ("Fringy group") can prove to be good enough to fill the #5 spot. Then we have a group of more talented guys in the upper minors (Hader, Houser, Kodi, Lopez, Ortega) from which we could hopefully fill at least one spot.

 

This is the "throw everything against the wall and see what sticks" approach. Quantity doesn't mean four of those guys can be consistent, quality starters. Anderson has shown nothing to believe he can start, much less be a solid #4. Guerra is too old to be a part of a future contending rotation. Jungmann and Cravy? Just no. Houser, Kodi, and Lopez are getting ripped.

 

I have no doubt someone will step up out of that group above, but not four of them. I would be thrilled if ONE on that list (including Hader) can develop into a reliable MLB SP. And yes, trades can bring in more pitching talent. But all of this is pure speculation, and there's just no way this all comes together in the next year or two.

[Boomer5]

The team ERA is 5.69 which is last in baseball and incomprehensibly a half run worse than always last place Colorado.

 

The minor league pitcher have been flawed to a degree (Hader) to flat out horrible (Kodi, Lopez). The hitting in the minors has been worse so the hope that we could trade our prospects for more advanced pitching is not likely.

 

The rebuild plan needs to keep the course and if anything trade Luc AND Braun for prospects.

 

The next date to watch is June 9, 2016.

[monty57]

We are one month into the season. Are we really willing to disregard anything any of our guys have done in the past and bet that all of our major league and minor league talent is horrible based on this one month?

 

The minor league pitcher have been flawed to a degree (Hader) to flat out horrible (Kodi, Lopez).

 

The Biloxi rotation has looked pretty good

 

Hader: ERA 0.78, 9BB:32K in 23 IP, 1.09 WHIP

Ortega: ERA 2.60, 0BB:17K in 27.2 IP, 1.08 WHIP

Wang: ERA 2.83, 11BB:20K in 28.2 IP, 1.08 WHIP

Houser: ERA 8.63, 10BB:25K in 24 IP, 1.54 WHIP

Salas: ERA 3.00, 12BB:21K in 27 IP, 0.96 WHIP

 

Houser is the only one giving up runs, and he's still striking out over one per inning with a 2.5:1 K:BB ratio.

 

The poor Colorado team has been playing in terrible weather in air that is thinner than Denver, so there is really no way to determine how well anyone on that team is doing. The sooner we're out of there, the better.

 

You are correct the Kodi has had a rough start, but the other name prospect on that staff (Bubba Derby) is doing well, with a 2.49 ERA, 8BB:31K in 21.2 IP, 1.29 WHIP. Brandon Woodruff and Eric Hanhold are having good starts as well, but I don't know much about them. The T-Rats' pitchers are also off to pretty good starts.

 

We have talent, so let's not jump to judgement after 5-6 starts. Some of the guys at all levels who are off to good starts will cool off (or else Perrin will have something like 250 K and no walks), and some of the guys who are off to bad starts will get better.

 

Guerra is too old to be a part of a future contending rotation.

 

If I had to bet, I'd say that Guerra probably won't be a big part of the future. However, if he can prove to be a capable #5 starter, there's no reason he couldn't hold that spot down for the next few seasons for league minimum. There is value in that.

[MrTPlush]

Extending Lucroy is a horrible idea no matter how good/bad this team is. I trust Stearns is smart enough to not sign an old catcher to a big contract. Not to mention with health issues.

 

 

I just don't get some of these claims you make.

 

This is a claim held by the majority of people who follow baseball. Extending Lucroy literally makes no sense at all. Stearns doesn't think we can compete in 2 years or whatever because he isn't putting a timetable on this rebuild...which is the right thing. If we extend Lucroy and he either declines or we don't compete it is going to look like one of the dumbest moves in franchise history. We don't know when we are going to compete so trading Lucroy isn't even a question, you just do it.

 

The only reason Lucroy wanted a career contract is because he knows that catchers decline early and if he had/has to wait out his current contract he may never hit it big. He was trying to pull a fast one on the Brewers and they didn't take the bait.

[And That]

If we extend Lucroy and he either declines or we don't compete it is going to look like one of the dumbest moves in franchise history.

I agree that it would likely be a mistake to extend Lucroy, but your penchant for overstating things is pretty amazing.

[MrTPlush]

If we extend Lucroy and he either declines or we don't compete it is going to look like one of the dumbest moves in franchise history.

I agree that it would likely be a mistake to extend Lucroy, but your penchant for overstating things is pretty amazing.

 

Sorry you feel that way.

[FVBrewerFan]

We are one month into the season. Are we really willing to disregard anything any of our guys have done in the past and bet that all of our major league and minor league talent is horrible based on this one month?

 

Not at all. Not betting they'll all be horrible based on the start to this season. At the same time, no reason to be optimistic that enough will change by 2018 for this to be a competitive rotation, let alone a contending one (which some are suggesting.)

 

Still plenty of arms to be excited about, but many of them are still in the lower levels. I love Lopez. But I also loved Wagner, Ponce, and Taylor Williams. Look what happened, one got trade and two got hurt. D Williams hurt too.

 

Point being, yes things can get better but don't discount how things can get worse for some of these guys too. It's nowhere near an automatic journey from AA to MLB, no matter how much talent a player has. Then, whoever does emerge, I just can't see them being really effective and consistent right away- not four of them.

 

I really see a couple of them pushing through and being at least solid starters by 2018. Either guys currently in the system, or via trade. Then you wait for the next wave currently in A+ and below to get a couple more. That's why I think 2020 is a more realistic time frame for the rotation (and team) to be competitive again.

[Boomer5]

We are one month into the season. Are we really willing to disregard anything any of our guys have done in the past and bet that all of our major league and minor league talent is horrible based on this one month?

 

The minor league pitcher have been flawed to a degree (Hader) to flat out horrible (Kodi, Lopez).

 

The Biloxi rotation has looked pretty good

 

Hader: ERA 0.78, 9BB:32K in 23 IP, 1.09 WHIP

Ortega: ERA 2.60, 0BB:17K in 27.2 IP, 1.08 WHIP

Wang: ERA 2.83, 11BB:20K in 28.2 IP, 1.08 WHIP

Houser: ERA 8.63, 10BB:25K in 24 IP, 1.54 WHIP

Salas: ERA 3.00, 12BB:21K in 27 IP, 0.96 WHIP

 

Houser is the only one giving up runs, and he's still striking out over one per inning with a 2.5:1 K:BB ratio.

 

The poor Colorado team has been playing in terrible weather in air that is thinner than Denver, so there is really no way to determine how well anyone on that team is doing. The sooner we're out of there, the better.

 

You are correct the Kodi has had a rough start, but the other name prospect on that staff (Bubba Derby) is doing well, with a 2.49 ERA, 8BB:31K in 21.2 IP, 1.29 WHIP. Brandon Woodruff and Eric Hanhold are having good starts as well, but I don't know much about them. The T-Rats' pitchers are also off to pretty good starts.

 

We have talent, so let's not jump to judgement after 5-6 starts. Some of the guys at all levels who are off to good starts will cool off (or else Perrin will have something like 250 K and no walks), and some of the guys who are off to bad starts will get better.

 

Guerra is too old to be a part of a future contending rotation.

 

If I had to bet, I'd say that Guerra probably won't be a big part of the future. However, if he can prove to be a capable #5 starter, there's no reason he couldn't hold that spot down for the next few seasons for league minimum. There is value in that.

 

One month does not a season make but it's not zero data either. I posted often that the major league team would be a 100 loss season but I was counting on the links report to be my morning must read. While it still is, it's not the good news report I had hoped. The guys we had all counted on for the most part have been disappointing.

 

This thread was focusing on the possibly moving up the timetable on the rebuild and nothing suggests that is even close at this point.

 

I will say Biloxi rotation has been a bright spot amongst the teams but no one can possibly say the top 25 is performing as hoped.

[MenchHead]

I'm not looking to readjust expectations. To me, this isn't a timetable question as it is a strength of organization question. Stearns (so far) appears to be in for the haul. We are getting deeper and stronger minor league talent than we have had in years. Yes, top prospects miss; but, if the continued growth and influx of talent continues, we will be able to consistently bring talent to the major league ball club. Stearns appears shrewd in acquiring talent and I'm interested to see what comes in the draft. Take care of the future and the future will take care of the present.

 

We have a lot of question marks. Guys struggling, guys being good. We are a month into the season so I'm not ready to make any declarations. Some can be attributed to bad luck or maybe slow/hot starts. Also, keep in mind some of these guys have bounced levels in the last year and it's going to be an adjustment for them as well as the competition they are facing. There are too many moving parts and such a shallow sample size to consider changing expectations.

[adambr2]

-Aaron Hill is terrible, but better than expected

 

Dude has a .551 OPS. I'm scared to ask what you expected.

[MrTPlush]

-Aaron Hill is terrible, but better than expected

 

Dude has a .551 OPS. I'm scared to ask what you expected.

 

Who knows...I guess some people on here expected straight zeros across the board.

[DHonks]

-Aaron Hill is terrible, but better than expected

 

Dude has a .551 OPS. I'm scared to ask what you expected.

 

Not looking at that. Looking at some quality at bats, solid defense, and solid contact. He's been terrible for several years. Given that I thought he would never make the team, he's been better than expected. He's by no means part of the future, and I'd prefer to get Rivera more AB's (glad to see Walsh getting some AB's), but he's been much improved lately. Has his performance been better than expected...you bet! It's just I never expected him to actually see a Brewers' regular season uniform. Note that I never said he was doing well. I said "terrible"

[brewcrewdue80]

Also, perhaps someone already pointed this out and I missed it, but the original post says Carter is controllable. They signed him to a one year deal..correct? That's not "controllable".

He is still arbitration eligible for 2017 and 2018 - so yes, he is controllable for a couple of years beyond 2016.

 

 

He is still arbitration eligible for two more years? His MLB debut was 2010. How can he still have 2 more years of eligibility (and not be eligible for Free agency yet)? I'll never understand the timing process of arbitration and free agency eligibility.

 

 

To make a little easier. My comprehension on service time is the decimals represent games in a season. So to list Carter at 3.159 means 3seasons and 159games/162 for 4. Which would make sense on a team control front. Houston would have gained a year at some point of time where his service time accrued to 159 and not flipping to 4years. The options with enough ML time would have stopped his clock. I really don't fully understand when service time results in another year of team control because 159 is closer than the 9games the Cubs held Bryant out to gain a full year of control.

 

As of now Bryant has .171 service time in 177games played. Unsure why it's not 1.015. Guess at what time does service flip a year? But at least you would have some kind of idea what the decimal is reading...somewhat. maybe I'll research more to have a definitive answer.

[adambr2]

It's been about a year now since Attanasio threw in the towel and basically admitted that the team needed a major overhaul. It was hard to fault him based on the team's performance, the falloff in production of Braun from his peak years, lack of top of the rotation pitching, and expiring contracts for key veterans.

 

But now a year later, Braun's been better than ever. They have controllable 1B who on pace for a 50 HR season. They are months if not weeks from the debut of one of the top 10 prospects in baseball. In the meantime, they are getting excellent production from the middle infield. They have nice young corner OF in Santana. The back end of the bullpen has been excellent and is manned by guys with terrific arms who are also controllable a bit longer. The pitching staff has an emerging ace. They have farm system rated in the top 10 by several analysts. They have plenty of payroll room.

 

What are they lacking really? They are lacking competent starting pitching in the 2-5 spots in the rotation. Now the track record of some of those guys here, suggests that they can turn it around but if not, they have some decent arms at high levels of minors admitting that some are off to slow starts, plus a lot more ammunition to acquire pitching than they've had in recent seasons.

 

Look there's no catching the Cubs, either this year or as long as they have a healthy Arietta and Lester fronting their rotation. The Cubs are going to be a force well into the next decade. But the Cards look vulnerable, the Pirates have payroll constraints and aren't setting the world on fire, and the Reds are truly in beginning stages of rebuilding.

 

Just sayin....

 

Sorry Briggs, I have a lot of problems with this one.

 

1 - A 50 HR pace in May means little.

2 - There's no reason for Arcia to come up anytime soon, especially with Villar playing well.

3 - Our bullpen is 28th in MLB, so let's not get too excited. Jeffress looks good. I don't see a ton of arms to hinge our future on.

4 - Nelson is not an emerging ace, or really even close to one. He's still got a career ERA over 4. I'm excited about what he's doing, but mostly just because there is absolutely nothing else on the pitching staff to get excited about. Let's give him more than 6 starts before getting too far ahead of ourselves.

5 - Lacking. ..basically 80% of a rotation as you put it yourself is kind of a problem.

 

Sorry, I understand trying to get excited, it's a long summer, but this feels like the only proverbial lipstick on the pig.

[brewcrewdue80]

Reading more service time is read on days. 183days in a season. 172 make a full year. So there's the decimal up to .171. .172 would be the number flip. Now the Super 2 is described as top 22% of serviced time. So you'd likely get a variance number. For this past season it wound up being .130 which is said to have been a surprise as some names that likely were headed for .132+ didn't and brought .130 in to qualify. So it's fairly safe to guess around 125 days left in the season an Arcia call-up or Hader would happen.

 

This is why I'm advocating for Arcia to be called up this season. If he's a September callup he'll accrue say .026 on service clock. Now for the Brewers to avoid his Super 2 status he'd have to stay down an extra month before getting called up. He's batting .300+ now in AAA. What are you going to say of what he needs to work on with those first 75days of the season next year? Should he get time in Sept?

[1992casey]

My comprehension on service time is the decimals represent games in a season.

 

At the top of each Cot's page, it says "Service time in years & days (through 2015 season)." There's no need to make an inference.

 

Kris Bryant wasn't on the 40-man roster previous to his callup. That's probably the main thing that kept him from earning a full season of service. A player who was already on the 40-man would need to stay in the minors for 20 days in order not to get the full 172 days of service.

 

The 2015 season started on April 5. Kris's contract was selected on April 17, and he played that day. That adds up to 12 days that he wasn't on the Major League roster. But I don't know exactly how the numbers add up to get his service to 171 days. Maybe someone can tackle that.

[1992casey]

But I don't know exactly how the numbers add up to get his service to 171 days. Maybe someone can tackle that.

 

This is actually pretty easy. Kris was called up on April 17, and the season ended on October 4. Including both days, Kris was on the Major League roster for 171 days.

[brewcrewdue80]

I recall TheCrew campaigning of Getting 4 #2/3s in rotation to lead a team through the season in to playoff potential. #3s are a 3.8 type ERA. 2s something like 3.4. I'd add 3s going 180IP 2s 195+ Aces better than 3.4 and over 200IP Fip would likely back up the ERA at least closer to it. Jimmy Nelson has the ERA working at a #2 but a Fip above a #3. Either way he's on pace to be 1 of those 2/3s the team needs to build on. Fip seems to get affected by HRs/lack of Ks or maybe by the K/BB rate. But Nelson is off to 6.6HITS per 9 in 6starts. But given up 7HRs. His FB/HR rate must be well up there(fangraphs has him at 20.6% vs 11.7% career) You'd assume that rate to come down which would also bring down that Fip.

 

Other than that Brewers have 3 more spots to find that 2/3 to give you that 4man rotation that the Cubs possess only with a 1 to go with 3 other 2/3s. The guys in the Brewers minors are young. Time is on their side to improve. Lopez, Hader, Suter even WCWang. If Davies, Jungmann, and Anderson don't come around to represent a #3 status to slot in. Derby/Diplan/Ponce/Kirby/Miguel Diaz or Freddy Peralta. Yes these options are more 2018 and beyond. The Pitcher we may draft this year could be ahead of them if a top college arm. There are just so many arms right now to go off of. At some point a few other Jimmy Nelson's will emerge. Any SP that reaches AA to me has the chance to be called up skipping AAA. So to say the Single A guys have no chance to reach by 2018 doesn't apply to my thinking. Diplan especially continues to post quality numbers. Chance he's the best prospect of the entire lot.

[MadThinker88]

At the start of Spring Training I felt the Crew was destined for 4th place and 95 or so defeats this year. I also believe the Reds are destined to lose around 105. The way its gone so far has not swayed my thoughts...

 

I firmly believe the rebuild is still in its beginnings. I'm preparing for 4 to 5 years before the Brewers are truly being able to contend. Having monsters like the Cubs, Pirates and Cards (until they crash & burn, I refuse to count them out) in the division means almost 60 games against the top teams in the National League. Measuring those games will be a true test. Hopefully the Brewers can take at 33 to 40% of those contests this year.

[adambr2]

The unfortunate reality IMO is that this rebuild will extend for as long as it takes for us to assemble at least a respectable rotation. Our farm system has greatly improved, but I don't see enough quality starting pitching in the pipeline to contend by 2018. We don't see a Zack Greinke in free agency every offseason, and even if we do, we're not going to drop 35M a year for one.

 

Rebuilding this rotation won't happen overnight. You could easily argue right now that 4 out of our 5 starters don't even belong in a major league rotation.

[Ennder]

Arcia is hitting a pretty empty .300. He has a ton of room for improvement before he comes up. The walk rate is a serious issue.

[monty57]

This thread was focusing on the possibly moving up the timetable on the rebuild and nothing suggests that is even close at this point.

 

I agree there. I'm optimistic in that things are going pretty much as expected. The pitching has started off worse than expected, and the offense has started off better than expected, but overall we expected this to be a season where we would lose a lot of games, but hopefully answer some questions and put ourselves in a better position to improve in the future.

 

I think some of our pitchers will settle down and bring their numbers to a more respectable level, while some of our hitters will cool off. Next offseason, we will have a clearer picture than we had this past offseason as to how far away we are from using some of our free cash to start adding pieces instead of trying to hit the jackpot off the scrap heap.

 

There is no chance we're going to make moves to increase our chances of winning this season. Moving up the timetable would mean making our "Jon Lester" signing this coming offseason. That's probably a season or two too early, but we will see. There are a lot of "ifs," but if Arcia comes up and performs well, guys like Carter, Gennett and Villar remain productive and Braun stays healthy, it's possible that the Brewers hit the FA market this offseason in an attempt to win more games next year. We would certainly need a couple of SP to settle in and solidify a few rotation spots. Then, all we'd have to do is sign Stephen Strasburg this offseason, and we'd be fine. Should be easy :-)