Expectations, time to revise again?

[JohnBriggs12]

It's been about a year now since Attanasio threw in the towel and basically admitted that the team needed a major overhaul. It was hard to fault him based on the team's performance, the falloff in production of Braun from his peak years, lack of top of the rotation pitching, and expiring contracts for key veterans.

 

But now a year later, Braun's been better than ever. They have controllable 1B who on pace for a 50 HR season. They are months if not weeks from the debut of one of the top 10 prospects in baseball. In the meantime, they are getting excellent production from the middle infield. They have nice young corner OF in Santana. The back end of the bullpen has been excellent and is manned by guys with terrific arms who are also controllable a bit longer. The pitching staff has an emerging ace. They have farm system rated in the top 10 by several analysts. They have plenty of payroll room.

 

What are they lacking really? They are lacking competent starting pitching in the 2-5 spots in the rotation. Now the track record of some of those guys here, suggests that they can turn it around but if not, they have some decent arms at high levels of minors admitting that some are off to slow starts, plus a lot more ammunition to acquire pitching than they've had in recent seasons.

 

Look there's no catching the Cubs, either this year or as long as they have a healthy Arietta and Lester fronting their rotation. The Cubs are going to be a force well into the next decade. But the Cards look vulnerable, the Pirates have payroll constraints and aren't setting the world on fire, and the Reds are truly in beginning stages of rebuilding.

 

Just sayin....

[Ennder]

I would be running the team assuming we start to get competitive in 2018 or 2019. It takes time for young pitching to develop and that is really the biggest hurdle we have. I wouldn't bring Arcia up until September either unless he absolutely blows up AAA which he isn't so far. I'd have him really work on taking pitches as he just isn't walking enough in AA and AAA and it is going to be a major concern when he hits the majors.

 

Edit : To expand on this I mean 2018 or 2019 is when we start trying to win games. It usually takes a couple years to go from there to actually being a playoff team. Like the Royals of 2011/2012. Everyone talked about how they were up and coming but they didn't really start to put it together until 2013. I can envision a Brewer playoff team but it probably isn't until at least 2020 at the very earliest and more likely 2021 or later.

[yfinn6]

Lacking 2-5 spots in the rotation and a few bullpen arms are big problems. I don't know that I'd consider Nelson an emerging ace, either.

[Outlander]

Nope

[Jenkins5]

4 out of 5 nights we are in great position to lose. Our strong bullpen doesn't matter and having bats like Santana, Gennett, Lucroy, Braun, and Carter really doesn't matter when your rotation outside of one guy can't get the job done at all. Until we get some other qualities frontline arms to go with Jimmy, we will not compete.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think it's time to revise expectations. However, window should be moved back- not up. You mentioned all the positives, but kind of glossed over the fact they are 4 pitchers short of a quality rotation. I've never been good at math, but I'm pretty sure that's a big number.

 

Even if everything went perfectly, rotation next year could be Nelson, Hader, Lopez, Davies, and pitcher in return for Lucroy. (Or counting on Peralta or Anderson to improve.) First, that's a lot of things that need to ALL go right. But even if they did, can that rotation compete right now?

 

It is a shame, I get it. Looks like Braun is back, Lucroy is hitting, Carter has been a pleasant surprise. It would be nice to build around that and make a run with those guys.

[MrTPlush]

Few thoughts:

 

-You aren't going to see Arcia anytime soon

-We lack an ace(Nelson is not...honestly not even close)

-We lack 4 starting pitchers

-Domingo Santana has not been very productive this year. Actually he has been pretty bad. Can't pencil him in as a solid starter yet.

 

2018 if you think things can go perfectly...2019 if you want to think positive...realistically 2020.

[yoshii8]

Umm, no. Let's keep the current process going. I'd like to see Braun traded before he gets hurt again.

[pacopete4]

It sure would be an easy fix to just nab a few pitchers and be competitive but unfortunately it is easier said than done. I hope Stearns can hit on a few gems but it probably won't be this season. Now, can some of our pitchers come back towards where they probably should be? Yes. And that will keep us from looking pathetic out there. But until they do, we will have long losing streaks. Teams that are going to be in the hunt come September/October do not have long losing streaks.

[dlk9s]

What are they lacking really? They are lacking competent starting pitching in the 2-5 spots in the rotation.

You say that like it's no big deal. Just lacking an entire starting pitching staff. Big whoop.

 

Also, even with Braun, Carter, and Lucroy hitting very well, the overall offensive numbers for the team are pretty bad.

 

The Brewers aren't anywhere close to competing for a playoff spot. And that's ok for now.

[MrTPlush]

What are they lacking really? They are lacking competent starting pitching in the 2-5 spots in the rotation.

You say that like it's no big deal. Just lacking an entire starting pitching staff. Big whoop.

 

Agreed. I see teams every year having trouble trying to find a reliable #5...none the less 3 quality pitchers and an ace.

[3and2Fastball]

Dealing Braun/Lucroy could ideally allow us to obtain 2-3 reliable starting pitchers for the 2017/2018 seasons. After that we need to Draft incredibly smart and mainly focus on pitching in the Draft.

 

I would also really monitor Nelson's innings. No point burning him out in a lost season

[bill hAll Star]

So you're willing to throw in the towel on the rebuild plan for a 10-20% shot at a 1-game playoff? The Cubs have already locked up the division.

[MrTPlush]

So you're willing to throw in the towel on the rebuild plan for a 10-20% shot at a 1-game playoff? The Cubs have already locked up the division.

 

10%!? You are much too generous.

[bill hAll Star]

So you're willing to throw in the towel on the rebuild plan for a 10-20% shot at a 1-game playoff? The Cubs have already locked up the division.

 

10%!? You are much too generous.

 

You're right - I guess I was assuming we'd be scrapping the rebuild AND doing something like trading for a pitcher at the deadline or something stupid.

[MrTPlush]

So you're willing to throw in the towel on the rebuild plan for a 10-20% shot at a 1-game playoff? The Cubs have already locked up the division.

 

10%!? You are much too generous.

 

You're right - I guess I was assuming we'd be scrapping the rebuild AND doing something like trading for a pitcher at the deadline or something stupid.

 

We gotta trade for four.

[adambr2]

Revise what? We are on pace for 68 wins which is about right on schedule.

 

There will be spurts where we look better than that (right now) and spurts where we look much worse.

 

The rotation is miles away from even dreaming of contention.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I believe (and hope) that Stearns is the type of guy who won't over react when we have the inevitable 5 or 6 game winning streak and think "hey we're in this thing!"

 

They're not ready to compete. Not by a long shot. This pitching staff is butt-awful and trading anything of consequence from the minors to get short contract vets to compete now would be an in redibly short sighted move. Nobody has suggested this (yet) but.....this team just isn't there yet. Interesting and entertaining? Sure. Compete worthy? Nah

[brewmann04]

I might be in the few that think Nelson has the ability to be a solid #2 but i agree if the move Luc and Braun they need to find a legit ##1

[DHonks]

Great post JohnBriggs. Remember, teams can be both playing for the present and the future. Some things I'm seeing:

 

-Braun looks great with the thumb and back behind him

-Lucroy is doing well. I'd both consider trade offers AND an extension with him. At a reasonable price, I'd consider making him a career Brewer. If this rebuild doesn't go well, we can trade him in 2-3 years.

-Villar could be a potential solid solution at 2b/3b in the future. I'm not talking about a stud, but perhaps a nice Bill Mueller-type.

-Carter is cheap and talented. He's outperforming expectations, but is at an age AND in a ballpark where he can be expected to have 3-4 peak years. This is just the beginning of the phase.

-Nelson is doing great.

-Peralta is teasing us at times.

-I'd like to see the team take a page from the old Mike Maddux playbook. Remember how Sheets went from decent young starter when he began mixing a high 4-seamer in with his down/away 2-seamer and breaking ball? His strikeouts skyrocketed as a result changing batters' eye-levels. He always got plenty of K's on curves, but suddenly he got a lot of guys swinging through the high cheese. Peralta and Nelson throw lots of stuff down. I'd like to see them mix in some 4-seamers above the belt.

-Hopefully Scooter can keep this up.

-Aaron Hill is terrible, but better than expected

-The bullpen looks strong with lots of talent

-Santana is looking good. Despite his recent slump, he's putting up decent numbers. Perhaps this shoulder issue is a reason for declining production. he has a nice eye, and hits the ball hard. Despite his young age and inexperience, he's been league-average. He looks like a keeper

[FVBrewerFan]

Yes, except this isn't the optimism thread. I am enjoying the season, but in no way am I changing my expectations. Because it's also possible to lose and enjoy the season at the same time as well.

[DHonks]

I read it as an optimistic tone. I don't think we're waiting till 2019-2022 to contend. I think it's possible that we could be a surprise success story in 2017. I think 2018 will be our new 2007-08. Given that it's not that far off, I like to take a cautious approach to dealing Lucroy and Braun as they can be a part of the solution. It's also disheartening that in the 3 recent articles I've read about how Braun should be on the open-market, each one speculates that the Brewers would not ask much for Braun AND would have to kick in a lot of cash. Given our low payroll (likely lower next year), I have no problems paying Braun his current contract if he continues to perform. I do not feel some pressure to dump him on another team. If someone wants him, then they'd better be ready to pay fair-price for a player that is playing at--or below--his contract. There should be no dumping of him

[FVBrewerFan]

There's no way the Brewers trade Braun for a small return AND pay a big chunk of his salary. I don't care if Stearns himself wrote the article, it's not going to happen. As for Lucroy being part of the solution, are you saying they should re-sign him to a new contract? Otherwise, he won't be part of any solution after next year.

 

Look, I don't want to crush another man's dreams. If you believe they can contend in 2017/18, I'm not going to talk you off the ledge. In fact, I would love to join you if anyone can show me a realistic path to a quality rotation in that time frame.

[MrTPlush]

Extending Lucroy is a horrible idea no matter how good/bad this team is. I trust Stearns is smart enough to not sign an old catcher to a big contract. Not to mention with health issues.

[Invader3K]

We just don't have the starting pitching right now. Put me in the camp that firmly believes we'll be back in the thick of contention by 2018, though.

 

I would still trade Lucroy this year, and trade Braun if a team makes a very good offer. Lucroy's upside for the Brewers diminishes the longer we keep him this year.

 

As far as Ryan Braun, he can be kept if Stearns never gets a great trade offer. His contract isn't really a big deal to this team, and even on a rebuilding franchise, you still need to have a star to help sell tickets, etc.