flipping players...

[Boomer5]

Of course this thread turns into something about Doug Melvin. When will you guys realize everything Doug Melvin did was largely in part because of Attanasio. Melvin couldn't do things Attanasio wouldn't let him. Attanasio wanted to sign old veterans so he could try to compete every year. Attanasio wanted to trade away prospects to win now. Attanasio wanted to extend every homegrown guy to keep a winning team for just a few more years. Doug Melvin was just doing whatever possible to put the best team on the field every year even though towards the end that was far fetched. He didn't look a few years down the road because Attanasio didn't care about that.

 

Attanasio was the biggest problem of the last decade NOT Doug Melvin. Your GM can only be as good as your owner. If your owner is an idiot so will the GM.

 

Exactly. Melvin was hardly a bad GM. He was given orders to keep the team a float, compete and draw as close to 3M people as possible.

 

Stearns was given the latitude to tank, Melvin wasnt.

[stoutdude04]

Of course this thread turns into something about Doug Melvin. When will you guys realize everything Doug Melvin did was largely in part because of Attanasio. Melvin couldn't do things Attanasio wouldn't let him. Attanasio wanted to sign old veterans so he could try to compete every year. Attanasio wanted to trade away prospects to win now. Attanasio wanted to extend every homegrown guy to keep a winning team for just a few more years. Doug Melvin was just doing whatever possible to put the best team on the field every year even though towards the end that was far fetched. He didn't look a few years down the road because Attanasio didn't care about that.

 

Attanasio was the biggest problem of the last decade NOT Doug Melvin. Your GM can only be as good as your owner. If your owner is an idiot so will the GM.

 

Exactly. Melvin was hardly a bad GM. He was given orders to keep the team a float, compete and draw as close to 3M people as possible.

 

Stearns was given the latitude to tank, Melvin wasnt.

 

Are we sure of that?

[3and2Fastball]

I've written it a hundred times and I'll do it again: if you are truly in "win now" mode you do not have Yuni B as your shortstop. You just don't.

[monty57]

Since so many on this site think it is a common occurrence, and that it is actually easy to pick up players on the cheap, then flip them to teams who had a chance at picking up those same players at one time

 

I reject your premise. I don't believe that anyone thinks it's easy, any more than picking the guy in the draft that will turn out to be a Hall of Famer is easy. That doesn't mean you don't do your homework to try to get talent any way possible.

 

Hill is a "flip candidate." The Brewers probably didn't call the Diamondbacks saying "we want Hill," but since picking him up allowed us to make a trade that netted us Diaz, we took him and some of his salary. Now, if he plays well, we could potentially get something back at the deadline, especially if we eat his salary. If he doesn't play well, we cut him. Nothing easy, nothing that denotes a "common occurrence," just trying to get the most value from an asset.

 

I was young, but I remember Rickey Henderson as a perennial "flip candidate," who seemed to sign with the A's every year and then get traded to the Yankees if the A's weren't in it. Our version of that was probably K-Rod. He was signed to help us win, but in years we didn't win, we traded him. I don't think this type of "rent-a-player" is very common. The more "common occurrence" would be that a team signs someone to help the team (or at least fill out the roster), and that player happens to be someone who can be flipped mid-season. More of a "Plan B" if "Plan A" doesn't work out.

 

In the Brewers' current situation, it could be useful to attempt this strategy, as they can afford to fail on a player without it destroying their playoff hopes. In addition to the aforementioned Hill, Briggs is probably correct in stating that they likely held onto Garza instead of just eating his salary in hopes he could turn it around and get flipped. Additionally, part of the reason they held onto Young and Presley at the AAA level was in hopes that they could show enough to draw interest. Carter may have been picked up as a flip candidate, but he has years of control left, so he could have been picked up as a long-term answer.

 

That's probably about it for this year's team. It's far from certain that any of these players will get traded for anything useful, and it definitely isn't easy to transform the team's future through "flip candidates," but hopefully we can get something helpful to the future by implementing this strategy as part of a bigger plan to replenish the farm and build a successful future.

 

As for me (and I assume others), when I see a veteran guy signed to a short-term deal, unless the team is in the playoff hunt I'll expect that guy will be shopped at the deadline.

[monty57]

I've written it a hundred times and I'll do it again: if you are truly in "win now" mode you do not have Yuni B as your shortstop. You just don't.

 

They ran out of money. It's like saying "if you want to get to work on time, you don't drive a car that continually breaks down." Sometimes you can't afford a better alternative.

 

Melvin/Attanasio always ran over budget. In an LLC, if the team loses money, the owners either have to borrow money (adding to debt, which means higher future debt payments), or take the money out of their own pockets to pay the overage. At some point, they say "no more."

[wildcat2237]

I've written it a hundred times and I'll do it again: if you are truly in "win now" mode you do not have Yuni B as your shortstop. You just don't.

 

They ran out of money. It's like saying "if you want to get to work on time, you don't drive a car that continually breaks down." Sometimes you can't afford a better alternative.

 

Melvin/Attanasio always ran over budget. In an LLC, if the team loses money, the owners either have to borrow money (adding to debt, which means higher future debt payments), or take the money out of their own pockets to pay the overage. At some point, they say "no more."

 

Not necessarily. It might be possible that each member was putting in a couple hundred thousand to cover overages each year. However, if the appraised value of the LLC (the Brewers) went up by millions, its possible that the owners would be just fine as they will be in line for a big payday when they sell their membership in the LLC.

[danzig6767]

Of course this thread turns into something about Doug Melvin. When will you guys realize everything Doug Melvin did was largely in part because of Attanasio. Melvin couldn't do things Attanasio wouldn't let him. Attanasio wanted to sign old veterans so he could try to compete every year. Attanasio wanted to trade away prospects to win now. Attanasio wanted to extend every homegrown guy to keep a winning team for just a few more years. Doug Melvin was just doing whatever possible to put the best team on the field every year even though towards the end that was far fetched. He didn't look a few years down the road because Attanasio didn't care about that.

 

Attanasio was the biggest problem of the last decade NOT Doug Melvin. Your GM can only be as good as your owner. If your owner is an idiot so will the GM.

Exactly. Melvin was hardly a bad GM. He was given orders to keep the team a float, compete and draw as close to 3M people as possible.

 

Stearns was given the latitude to tank, Melvin wasnt.

My guess is that both Attanasio and Melvin pretty much shared similar ideas on what to do during that 4-5 year stretch.

 

Attanasio was super competitive and thus was in a win now mode, along with he loved seeing 3 million fans pouring in Miller Park year after year. Liked that free agents were picking Milwaukee. Melvin i think was fine with this objective by Attanasio and thus operated under what his owner wanted. This is likely why Melvin kept his job as long as he did.

 

The one thing i wonder if it bothered Melvin was how often Attanasio did the negotiations with agents of free agent players? There were articles about Attanasio negotiating with the agents of Suppan, Garza, Ramirez, Loshe, and K-Rod. I still remember Melvin saying he wasn't interested in signing Loshe because of the draft pick compensation, but then Attanasio got a deal done. In another instance when the Brewers were thinking of signing K-Rod the second time, Melvin was asked by a reporter if K-Rod would be back. His response was, ask Mark.

[monty57]

Not necessarily. It might be possible that each member was putting in a couple hundred thousand to cover overages each year. However, if the appraised value of the LLC (the Brewers) went up by millions, its possible that the owners would be just fine as they will be in line for a big payday when they sell their membership in the LLC.

 

Yes, in the long-term the ownership group should do fine, which is why they are willing to forego big profits each year. However, that doesn't mean that they are willing to, or have the ability to, lose hundreds of thousands or millions per year in anticipation of the gain. The group doesn't want to force one of the member's shares to end up in bankruptcy court.

 

I doubt the team went too far into the red for too many years, in large part because at some point they decided to do things like play Yuni B rather than borrow the extra money to pick up a real MLB player.

[Thurston Fluff]

i remember reading an article where Melvin mentioned he planned on flipping Junior Spivey almost as soon as he traded for him but decided to keep him for a while. I don't remember the reason he gave but I think it might have had something to do with Week's time table. Whatever the reason Spivey was flipped eventually. Just not exactly at the high point of his trade value.

[sveumrules]

I've written it a hundred times and I'll do it again: if you are truly in "win now" mode you do not have Yuni B as your shortstop. You just don't.

 

The Brewers won 96 games in 2011 even with Yuni (-0.1 WAR) & McGehee (-0.3 WAR) receiving the 3rd & 4th most plate appearances on the team. The Royals won the World Series in 2015 with Omar Infante contributing -0.9 WAR in 455 PA's. The 2011 Cardinals gave Ryan Theriot (0.2 WAR) & Skip Schumacher (0.3 WAR) 400 PA's each & had no problem winning the WS. The 2007 WS Champion Boston Red Sox gave Julio Lugo, he of the 0.4 WAR, the 3rd most plate appearance on the team with 630. Even the best teams typically have a terrible player or two that plays plenty.

[Crash2303]

but how much better would the brewers (and those other teams) have been if they hadn't given them that many ABs? even though we didn't have many other options within the system, many were calling for both of them to drop in the order, especially McGehee who was given an incredibly long leash to figure it out in the heart of the order.

[reillymcshane]

I don't think the Brewers have done much flipping of players simply because they have been contenders (or thought they were) for a while.

 

Signing a guy with the intention of flipping him later is generally something for teams who know they won't contend. A contending team doesn't like to take risks. They like certainty. That's why we got Carter. No contending team was going to risk their 1B position to a guy who hit below the Mendoza Line.

 

I should add, that I don't think flipping guys usually works that often. An injured or aging or flawed player is usually a high risk proposition from the get go - and those kinds of things rarely work out. I also don't like blocking other players who might develop if given the chance. But that doesn't mean you can't try it. I wouldn't count on anything really panning out from such an attempt, but you never know.

[3and2Fastball]

I've written it a hundred times and I'll do it again: if you are truly in "win now" mode you do not have Yuni B as your shortstop. You just don't.

 

The Brewers won 96 games in 2011 even with Yuni (-0.1 WAR) & McGehee (-0.3 WAR) receiving the 3rd & 4th most plate appearances on the team. The Royals won the World Series in 2015 with Omar Infante contributing -0.9 WAR in 455 PA's. The 2011 Cardinals gave Ryan Theriot (0.2 WAR) & Skip Schumacher (0.3 WAR) 400 PA's each & had no problem winning the WS. The 2007 WS Champion Boston Red Sox gave Julio Lugo, he of the 0.4 WAR, the 3rd most plate appearance on the team with 630. Even the best teams typically have a terrible player or two that plays plenty.

 

Not someone that terrible defensively at a premium position

[MrTPlush]

I've written it a hundred times and I'll do it again: if you are truly in "win now" mode you do not have Yuni B as your shortstop. You just don't.

 

The Brewers won 96 games in 2011 even with Yuni (-0.1 WAR) & McGehee (-0.3 WAR) receiving the 3rd & 4th most plate appearances on the team. The Royals won the World Series in 2015 with Omar Infante contributing -0.9 WAR in 455 PA's. The 2011 Cardinals gave Ryan Theriot (0.2 WAR) & Skip Schumacher (0.3 WAR) 400 PA's each & had no problem winning the WS. The 2007 WS Champion Boston Red Sox gave Julio Lugo, he of the 0.4 WAR, the 3rd most plate appearance on the team with 630. Even the best teams typically have a terrible player or two that plays plenty.

 

Not someone that terrible defensively at a premium position

 

In 2011 Yuni B was worth a grand 0 dWAR. He made some errors, but outside of that he was fairly reliable in all other aspects.

[Ennder]

Mark A strikes me as a rather smart guy. I'm sure Melvin explained to him each year what options they had, and the consequences. Plus, those years were closer calls in what to do compared to now. Mark A. knew he was taking a chance trying to win every year. That meant giving up prospects, not trading guys at their peak, etc.

 

 

He put together 2 teams that were fully capable of winning a World Series. The 2008 and 2011 teams both had all the tools they needed to win one. Just because they lost in the playoffs doesn't change that fact. If the 2008 team doesn't tank the final month and make Sabathia pitch his arm off and if the 2011 team doesn't wet the bed because they have a mental block against the Cardinals they both had very good shots at it.

 

If the powers that be had rated Sabathia over Teixiera in the free agent market we likely would have had Mike Trout in 2011 as well which probably would have pushed us into the WS. That season when neither Sheets or Sabathia got us the pick they should have was really devastating to the franchise.

 

Melvin was an above average GM in his time with the team. He is a bit long in the tooth to start another rebuild though so I'm definitely glad they made the change.

[MrTPlush]

2011 team doesn't wet the bed because they have a mental block against the Cardinals they both had very good shots at it.

 

Shaun Marcum...if only he hadn't tired out at the end of the season. Maybe we would have won that series. Dang...

[3and2Fastball]

In 2011 Yuni B was worth a grand 0 dWAR. He made some errors, but outside of that he was fairly reliable in all other aspects.

 

You can't make errors on baseballs you cannot get to. Unbelievably bad range can help one's error totals, but not the overall defense of the team. Melvin liked him because he hit some HR's. LOL

[Crash2303]

Breaking down this year's trade assets as well as beyond.

 

No Future Beyond This Year Guys

This year's "flip" candidates and guys who will not be on the team in 2017 barring something spectacular. Let's hope these players pick it up by the trade deadline or when guys return from the DL, as outside of LuCroy & Carter, I can't imagine at this point getting much if anything from any of them! In other words, these are the players who should be playing as much as possible in hopes of increasing trade value.

 

Aaron Hill- .530OPS

Chris Capuano- 4.50 ERA and walks are an issue

Niewenhuis/Presley- .770ish OPS in limited action

Blaine Boyer- respectable 2.84 ERA, but 1.50 WHIP suggests he's gotten out of some jams

Freeman/Torres- cough, cough

Jonathan LuCroy- not showing much power, but everything else looks good (too much value to not be traded before next season)

Chris Carter- leading the majors in SLG%, if he keeps it up through the All-Star break, should get back a good haul, as he's signed next year too.

 

We're Listening

the following will be on the 2017 roster unless traded beforehand, but if they have good seasons, there is a likely chance they will be gone by this year's trade deadline or before the start of next season. With the exception of Braun & Garza, all of the following are young, cost-controlled talent. [signed through]

 

Matt Garza- [2017]- will definitely not be on the team by 2017 trade deadline- hopefully he comes back strong from the DL.

Chase Anderson [2020]

Scooter Gennett [2019]

Wily Peralta [2018]

Ryan Braun [2020]

Jeremy Jeffress [2019]

Will Smith [2019]

Tyler Thornburg [2019]

Michael Blazek [2020]

 

Fight or Flight: Auditioning

these are the young guys who should be around in 2017 spring training but auditioning for a roster spot this year and need to be playing as much as possible to see what they've got in them after the trade deadline (or before) once any of the above guys are gone. For most of them, there's a good chance that if they don't make the roster next season they will be traded/released.

Rymer Liriano- 0 options

Ramon Flores- 0 options

Hernan Perez- 0 options

Ariel Pena- 0 options (not on 40)

Sean Nolin- 0 options

Junior Guerra- age 31

Hiram Burgos- age 28 (not on 40)

Jaye Chapman- age 28 (not on 40)

Garin Cecchini- 0 options

 

No Pressure, but...

Guys who will all but assuredly be in the Brewers system next year, and in the mix for a 25 man roster spot, but need (more) MLB exposure & development this year to see if they're part of 2018 and beyond or outside looking in as possible trade assets.

Zach Davies

Taylor Jungmann

Colin Walsh

Yadiel Rivera

Keon Broxton

David Goforth

Tyler Cravy

Damien Magnifico

Yhonathan Barrios

Michael Reed

 

Not Interested

Understanding that no one is truly "off limits", I see the only MLB players that would not feasibly be traded this season are:

Nelson

Villar

Santana

Knebel

 

Tempting, but no. Don't Start Their Clock (or Trade Them)

Orland Arcia

Josh Hader

Brett Phillips

Jorge Lopez

 

Apologies But, You're Of No Use to Us

guys who will not be with us next year, and don't offer any trade value this year (unless they suddenly get hot at AAA and reach the majors and can be offed for a team looking for a 5th OF or last bullpen spot).

Shane Peterson

Jim Miller

Cesar Jimenez

Will Middlebrooks

Mitch Lambson

Eric Young, Jr

Ben Guez

Jake Elmore

 

[/Whenever LuCroy is Dealtb]

Audition time for Pinto, Pina, & Garcia

[BrewersAA]

Since so many on this site think it is a common occurrence, and that it is actually easy to pick up players on the cheap, then flip them to teams who had a chance at picking up those same players at one time, I'm just curious, how many times have the Brewers actually picked up players with the intent of flipping them at the trade deadline, and then actually flipped them for a return that actually benefited the team in the long run.

 

It seems that term is used a lot on these boards, but I'd like to know how often it actually happens, and what the return was for those players who were flipped.

 

I know i am late to this thread, but my answer would be that i was BEGGING the brewers to pick up Matt Latos. everyone on here told me i was crazy because the brewers already had their rotation. My logic was that you could start jungmann at triple A or put Garza in the pen if latos was pitching well and then flip him and give the spot to whoever is performing the best in the minors.

 

The brewers were one of the 6 teams that went and watched him workout and he signed with the white sox for 1 year 3 million, or, in other words, nothing. Currently he has a 1.84 era in five starts and has already been worth 1.1 WAR. for 3 million... at the deadline he could definitely be trade for a nice minor leaguer or 2. so for about 1.5 million worth of performance you would be able to 'buy' a contending teams top 5 prospect.

[jerichoholicninja]

Since so many on this site think it is a common occurrence, and that it is actually easy to pick up players on the cheap, then flip them to teams who had a chance at picking up those same players at one time, I'm just curious, how many times have the Brewers actually picked up players with the intent of flipping them at the trade deadline, and then actually flipped them for a return that actually benefited the team in the long run.

 

It seems that term is used a lot on these boards, but I'd like to know how often it actually happens, and what the return was for those players who were flipped.

 

I know i am late to this thread, but my answer would be that i was BEGGING the brewers to pick up Matt Latos. everyone on here told me i was crazy because the brewers already had their rotation. My logic was that you could start jungmann at triple A or put Garza in the pen if latos was pitching well and then flip him and give the spot to whoever is performing the best in the minors.

 

The brewers were one of the 6 teams that went and watched him workout and he signed with the white sox for 1 year 3 million, or, in other words, nothing. Currently he has a 1.84 era in five starts and has already been worth 1.1 WAR. for 3 million... at the deadline he could definitely be trade for a nice minor leaguer or 2. so for about 1.5 million worth of performance you would be able to 'buy' a contending teams top 5 prospect.

 

Most people were against Latos because of some "character issues" of which I've never heard any actual issues before or since.

[endaround]

Latos has pitched like Wily Peralta (xFIP 4.96 vs 5.06). Just because he has an 93.8% LOB and a really low FB/HR% does not mean he is good.

[Ennder]

Latos has pitched like Wily Peralta (xFIP 4.96 vs 5.06). Just because he has an 93.8% LOB and a really low FB/HR% does not mean he is good.

 

 

Regardless names have value. He would have never been a bad signing at his price tag because a little luck turns him into a big trade chip.

[reillymcshane]

One reason we didn't sign (and shouldn't have signed) Latos was that he would have blocked guys who should be in the majors.

 

Before the year, we had six viable starters - Nelson, Peralta, Garza, Jungmann, Anderson and Davies. While Garza was in the rotation because of his salary, the other guys are part of our future - or need to show they are. Keeping Davies at AAA for the season would have been counter productive. The club needs to give him a fair shake and see if he's going to be part of our future. Same with the other guys.

 

I've said before that flipping guys can be a great idea, but to do it at the expense of a young player's development isn't wise.

[Boomer5]

Since so many on this site think it is a common occurrence, and that it is actually easy to pick up players on the cheap, then flip them to teams who had a chance at picking up those same players at one time, I'm just curious, how many times have the Brewers actually picked up players with the intent of flipping them at the trade deadline, and then actually flipped them for a return that actually benefited the team in the long run.

 

It seems that term is used a lot on these boards, but I'd like to know how often it actually happens, and what the return was for those players who were flipped.

 

I know i am late to this thread, but my answer would be that i was BEGGING the brewers to pick up Matt Latos. everyone on here told me i was crazy because the brewers already had their rotation. My logic was that you could start jungmann at triple A or put Garza in the pen if latos was pitching well and then flip him and give the spot to whoever is performing the best in the minors.

 

The brewers were one of the 6 teams that went and watched him workout and he signed with the white sox for 1 year 3 million, or, in other words, nothing. Currently he has a 1.84 era in five starts and has already been worth 1.1 WAR. for 3 million... at the deadline he could definitely be trade for a nice minor leaguer or 2. so for about 1.5 million worth of performance you would be able to 'buy' a contending teams top 5 prospect.

 

I was against that signing personally.

 

I think Stearns has put together the worst Brewer team since 2002 (you can argue why he did it but not the validity that he did do it) but even I thought the starting rotation had promise and was pretty deep. I didnt really see a place for Latos with 6 legitimate, or so I thought, starters. Id rather develop our young guys than hope that a retread finds it for a flip down the road.

[TheCrew07]

 

He put together 2 teams that were fully capable of winning a World Series. The 2008 and 2011 teams both had all the tools they needed to win one. Just because they lost in the playoffs doesn't change that fact.

 

First that's not a fact, that's an opinion.

 

Second, there's no way the 2008 team had enough talent to win a WS, they barely got in the playoffs and wouldn't if the Mets had a second epic collapse, they were rolled in a lopsided series. The 2011 team was destroyed by the Cards in the NLCS, it wasn't a close series that could have gone either way, the run differential in the series was awful. You may choose to believe that it was a just bad luck and the outcome could have broken a different way, but that's your opinion, as it is mine that the Brewers were never serious WS contenders based on the conclusions I've put forth in numerous other posts over the last 8 years.

 

As an aside, if Fangraphs or BR.com calculates WAR for a player, the result of the calculation is only a fact in so much as it exists. WAR, or any other metric is actually just a statistical opinion, a fact which seems to have gotten lost along the way. I find many metrics useful for putting some context of ultimate value into the discussion, but I'd never assert them as the "true" representation of a player's value.