Chris Carter Trade Value

[And That]

That is the dumbest reason

 

Quit.

[brewerfan82]

The reason you keep Carter unless a "can't pass up" offer comes along is because we have NOTHING at 1st base, or in the minors.

 

That is the dumbest reason not to trade him.... You don't give him away, but if the right package comes along, you trade him

 

Not dumb at all (in fact, semantically, as far as reasons to not trade him, that may be one of the most obvious and best reasons...). He already said if the right package comes along you trade him. If Carter shows in the next year and a half that he's got a chance to be the next Davis/Encarnacion and you can sign him to a 3-4 year extension through 2020/2021, he could be a very useful and veteran piece to compliment the young talent when the team is competitive again. Like he said, it's not like we have a bunch of 40-homerun power first basemen lined up to take his place in the minors right now.

 

That said, it's a little early to determine if he's going to keep this up. The potential has always been there, so there is hope, but if someone provides an offer valuing him as the hitter he's been so far this year and not as the one that was released by the Astros for nothing last year, then I think you have to take it.

[DuWayne Steurer]

It doesn't matter who plays first base. Have Lucroy play first base, or Andy Wilkins, or whoever. This season, it absolutely doesn't matter, as they're going to win about 65 games. If someone comes at you with a top 50 prospect + some lower level high-ceiling guy or 2, who's playing 1st base for the last 80 games of a tap-out season absolutely shouldn't matter.

 

I like Carter a lot. (Big power, high walk guys are my "thing"), but if someone comes at me with a great offer, I wouldn't hesitate to trade an almost 30 year old who's going into arbitration, just because I don't have a 1st baseman.

 

I don't care if Andy Wilkins comes up and hits .200 for the rest of the year with 4 homeruns in 300 at bats. If someone offered us a top 50 or top 75 and then some.....I'd snap it up and hang up before they changed their minds.

[MrTPlush]

The reason to hold onto Carter past July is if you think he can raise his stock. Even if one gets offered an OK deal for Carter they could still choose to keep him if they are confident he will raise his value even higher. Either way I don't think it would be smart to ever extend him and I don't think he is apart of the future. Even this version of Carter has a lot of flaws where I would rather sell high on him and find a new first baseman vs. rolling with a 32+ year old Carter on a contending team.

[Boomer5]

If he keeps this up and say ends up at 900 OPS and 40 HRs, what would he command at Arby?

 

On the other hand, if he has 20+HRs into July, I would have to think he could command a high end A ball pitching prospect and that would be gold to us.

[DHonks]

Not trying to suggest Carter is going to become a superstar, but as I've said before, we need to remember some historical strides hitters have made

 

Player A (first 6 seasons, 1754 AB, 59 HR, .238/.329/729)

Player A (next 6 seasons, 2962 AB, 227 HR, .268/.390/.945)

 

Player B (first 4 seasons, 1005 AB, 44 HR, .252/.301/.749)

Player B (next 4 seasons, 2122 AB, 159 HR, .256/.342/.876)

 

Player C (first 7 seasons, 2731 AB, 117 HR, .260/.331/.784)

Player C (next 4 seasons, 2077 AB, 151 HR, .274/.371/.919)

 

Player D (first 4 seasons, 557 AB, 22HR, .251/.312/.743)

Player D (next 7 seasons, 3537 AB, 219 HR, .277/.338/860)

 

At some point with all 4 of these players, teams gave up on them. Given continued opportunities, they all thrived. Sometimes sluggers with raw power take longer to figure things out. These guys "figured it out" at 29, 26, 29, and 28. Carter is in his age 29 season. He may not sustain his current pace, but he'll quite possibly regress to something better than his career line of .221/.314/.778 for the next couple seasons. At this point I'm prepared to hold onto him until someone is willing to give a nice package for him (most likely July '17).

 

A - Jose Bautista

B - Chris Davis

C - Edwin Encarnacion

D - I can't figure out. I thought maybe Big Papi but it doesn't look like it.

EDIT: D - Nelson Cruz. Duh.

 

Good job!!! While Carter is different (he had more good years early than the others), it doesn't change the idea that he can improve his contact. He's using the entire field, consistently driving the ball. And I also agree that if Carter hits .240, he's a top 10 first baseman.

[monty57]

The easy answer is: If the offer is good enough, you trade him.

 

I personally would hold onto him if the offer was "okay," because an "okay" prospect wouldn't really do anything for our farm. We have lots of "okay" prospects, so unless we can get a "good" prospect, I'd hold him for another season and see where things are by next year's trade deadline.

 

Now, if he ends the season with 50 HR and an OPS around 1.000, then we have an interesting situation. Realistically, I think he can be a .220-.240 avg /.320-.340 OBP guy with monster power, so I'm fine holding him for another year. He's fun to watch, he probably wouldn't bring a huge return in trade this season, and he's "controlled" for two more years with no MLB-caliber player in the pipeline. No rush to move him.

[sveumrules]

but NOTHING in his advanced stats has changed. Not a single thing has positively changed.

 

It's still early of course but Carter's plate discipline numbers this year are much improved.

 

Carter is swinging at a lower percentage of pitches overall (41.3 vs 45.9 career) both inside (64.8 vs 70.1 career) and outside (19.7 vs 27.0 career) of the zone. Meahwhile his contact % is a career best 69.4 against a career mark of 65.2.

 

While I don't think he'll finish the season with a wRC+ in the 150's like he's been carrying so far I can see him leveraging these gains to settle in closer to the 137 he posted in 2012 vs the 112 he posted from 2013-15.

[Madhawk23]

Here's my crazy draft proposal for the day: Stearns should call up the NY Mets and offer CC in exchange for Matt Harvey straight up! Harvey is a head case right now for the Mets, and they might just be stupid enough to deal him if they got a 1B in return now that Duda is out for an extended period of time. I'm sure they'd laugh Stearns right off the phone, or they'd probably ask for Lucroy instead (which I absolutely would not do).

 

Thoughts on this idea? Are the Mets just going to ride this out with Harvey, or will they make an emotional decision and try to make him somebody else's "problem?"

[pacopete4]

I just can't see them parting ways with a pitcher of his talent after a shaky start to a season. Why wouldn't they just try to sit him down, let him figure it out and keep one of the better pitchers in the game?

[JohnBriggs12]

Mets are wanting help replacing Duda now. Try and see what it takes beyond Carter to land Dominic Smith. Maybe somebody like Wang or Roache? Sure, Carter alone probably doesn't get him but Brewers have options at positions of strength that can sweeten that deal. That would solve the "no 1B of the future in the system" issue.

Brewers could play Perez/Flores at 1B in the meantime.

[Jose Cardenal1]

The Lind trade brought back 3 19yr olds one of which was Seattle's 15th ranked (BA) prospect. I think Carter has more worth in the sense that he can still be under team control past this year. Given that what about asking the Mets for:

 

Ali Sanchez C 19yrs old MLB ranks as Mets 15th prospect

Thomas Szapucki LHP 19yrs old (5th rd. 2015) MLB ranks as Mets 18th prospect

 

So 2 ranked prospects vs. 3 prospects with 1 ranked. For us it is 2 lottery tickets. For the Mets it is giving up two guys that are still a long ways from helping them.

 

Seems like a very Stearns kind of trade.

[Roderick]

The Lind trade brought back 3 19yr olds one of which was Seattle's 15th ranked (BA) prospect. I think Carter has more worth in the sense that he can still be under team control past this year. Given that what about asking the Mets for:

 

Ali Sanchez C 19yrs old MLB ranks as Mets 15th prospect

Thomas Szapucki LHP 19yrs old (5th rd. 2015) MLB ranks as Mets 18th prospect

 

So 2 ranked prospects vs. 3 prospects with 1 ranked. For us it is 2 lottery tickets. For the Mets it is giving up two guys that are still a long ways from helping them.

 

Seems like a very Stearns kind of trade.

 

I think we can be fairly confident that Lind was worth alot more on the trade market when we traded him than Carter would have trade value right now.

 

I think most GMs are thinking that Carter's true self is the .199 batting average he put up last year (.161 ave the last 15 games). Houston wouldn't even retain him for nothing other than his salary cost, which is less than what Lind makes this year. I don't think the Brewers had much competition to sign him at the time either, right?

 

So knowing all of this and what actual GMs in the league have actually done regarding Lind and Carter, I think it is clear we would not get as much as we got from the Lind trade if we were to trade Carter today.

[JackNicholson1974]

If we cut Carter today, what would he get on the open market?

[Roderick]

If we cut Carter today, what would he get on the open market?

 

I really only pay attention to the Brewers, but I would find it very hard to believe that any team would pay him a $8M (prorated obviously) contract for this year. And then kick in three prospects to boot, to make it apples to apples.

[adambr2]

Probably a prorated portion of the MLB minimum, since that's all they'd be on the hook for. We'd still be on the hook for what we signed him for, pretty sure that's how it works.

[FVBrewerFan]

Don't mean to avoid the question, but it's a rhetorical question. What matters is what is he worth in August, with salary being a non-factor. This makes him at least as valuable as Lind. Teams are willing to give up more at the trade deadline. IF he is still around .850 OPS at that time, there will be buyers. Always teams looking for a power bat down the stretch and into the playoffs. They will not care what he's done in his career. They will not care if he turns back into a pumpkin next year. It's all about what he can offer for two months this season.

[1992casey]

If [the Mets are] only going to play him as a 1B, why not just ask for Chris Carter?

 

Of course, this thread is all about rumors and proposals, so we're rarely operating with information that's very solid.

 

But bringing Lucroy to the Mets and getting him going at 1B would make sense. He'd need time to learn the pitching staff, and the Mets could use a first baseman in the short term. He could be phased into the catching position as time goes on.

[JackNicholson1974]

Probably a prorated portion of the MLB minimum, since that's all they'd be on the hook for. We'd still be on the hook for what we signed him for, pretty sure that's how it works.

 

 

Im sorry, I was not clear. What I meant to say was, if Chris Carter were a Free Agent right now. What could he command on the open market. After the start he has had, you think he would only command the league minimum? If that's the case, then yes, he is worthless, do not trade him. Also, why the heck are we paying him 2.5 million if he could only now get league min from every other team, is Milwaukee really that bad a place to live and play?

[FVBrewerFan]

He's hitting .850 OPS, so no, he is not worthless. I won't begin to predict what sort of contract he would get, but it wouldn't be the league minimum. But again, it really doesn't matter today. We'll find out in a couple months what he's worth, and if he's still close to .850 he will get a good return.

[Roderick]

Probably a prorated portion of the MLB minimum, since that's all they'd be on the hook for. We'd still be on the hook for what we signed him for, pretty sure that's how it works.

 

 

Im sorry, I was not clear. What I meant to say was, if Chris Carter were a Free Agent right now. What could he command on the open market. After the start he has had, you think he would only command the league minimum? If that's the case, then yes, he is worthless, do not trade him. Also, why the heck are we paying him 2.5 million if he could only now get league min from every other team, is Milwaukee really that bad a place to live and play?

 

I'm sure he misunderstood the point of your post. Tough to say, because midyear rosters are pretty set versus the offseason. So my response would be if the season just ended and it was the offseason, he would get a 2016 contract of ~$5M if he were suddenly on the free agent market today would be my guess. Positives because he is not tied up long term, but could be kept if the team wanted. As for midseason value, if only one team has a need, less, but if two teams in contention with deep pockets have a need, then you may have a bidding war.

[adambr2]

Probably a prorated portion of the MLB minimum, since that's all they'd be on the hook for. We'd still be on the hook for what we signed him for, pretty sure that's how it works.

 

 

Im sorry, I was not clear. What I meant to say was, if Chris Carter were a Free Agent right now. What could he command on the open market. After the start he has had, you think he would only command the league minimum? If that's the case, then yes, he is worthless, do not trade him. Also, why the heck are we paying him 2.5 million if he could only now get league min from every other team, is Milwaukee really that bad a place to live and play?

 

Ok, I was responding to the literal part you said about the Brewers releasing him. In that case, it's my understanding that his 2.5M salary would apply still, which we would be on the hook for, and the only relied we'd get from it would be the prorated minimum from whatever club signed him.

 

That's how it worked when we released Suppan in 2010 and St. Louis signed him. I don't think they can just double dip on salary when released.

 

I do understand, what you're asking, so completely hypothetically, if he were a FA now and teams were able to bid on him based on his numbers so far this year, based on need around the league, I would guess he is worth about a $5M annual salary right now. Prorated that would be about 3M for the rest of the season.

[brewcrewdue80]

Gotta understand, Carter is essentially 1st year Arb player. Thus his 2.5mil cheap cost. So for next year. 5.5mil would likely be to much or about right. Any team could just offer him 2.5mil again. Except Milw who'd go through Arbitration with him. Carter has to be reasonable in what he&agent value themselves then. Asking 8mil. And Brewers offer 5mil. The Arbitrator can side with Milw and then 5mil becomes his pay. We think 2.5mil is a steal. But in reality, Carter may not have had an offer over 2million. He wasn't and still won't be a typical Free Agent as he hasn't accrued the service time to be paid a FA Salary.

[splitterpfj]

The Mets just traded for James Loney.