Chris Carter Trade Value

[pacopete4]

I think an even better thread might be what is Carter's value going to be if he continues his torrid pace he's been on. Is he a guy we hold onto or move on from and get even more trade pieces? All I know is an AL team should be drooling over him if his numbers are even close to what he's at come June/July. At $2.5 mil, he's cheap and controllable. This could be a huge get for Stearns.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think an even better thread might be what is Carter's value going to be if he continues his torrid pace he's been on. Is he a guy we hold onto or move on from and get even more trade pieces? All I know is an AL team should be drooling over him if his numbers are even close to what he's at come June/July. At $2.5 mil, he's cheap and controllable. This could be a huge get for Stearns.

 

Considering his cheap contract and his controllability through 2018, it all depends on whether you think this is a career year or not. If you think it is, yeah you sell high. If you think he's just a perfect fit in Miller Park and will hit you close to 40 HR for another year or two, hold on to him. He'll still have value if you want to deal him later if that's the case.

[FVBrewerFan]

There are always teams at the deadline looking for a power bat. At the same time, I think teams realize he's not going to keep up these number for multiple years. But that's ok, if he's hot in late July, into August he should get a quality prospect package even as a rent-a-bat. Power is in shorter supply these days, so his value should go up.

[MrTPlush]

My first thoughts:

 

.341 BABIP compared to his .291 career mark

 

.375 ISO compared to his .279 career mark

 

A massive regression is to come at some point. I think best case scenario you have a 2014 type Chris Carter...maybe slightly better due to playing at Miller Park. So what is the value of that? Probably not as much as one would wish. I think if he can keep it up at least to 2014 standards you could probably get something interesting, but not Top 100 prospect good.

 

They could always hold onto him and hope Miller Park can inflate his numbers for the rest of the year or till next July. At that point you could probably get a team to give something up good, but you also run they risk of him doing even worse and being worth little. Personally I think you deal him at the deadline unless the offers are really underwhelming.

[DHonks]

He hasn't played all that much in the big leagues. Given his age and relative inexperience, he could continue to develop quite a bit. I'd like to see the Brewers target mid-2017 as a trade for him. But obviously, anyone is welcome to make an offer

[FVBrewerFan]

My first thoughts:

 

A massive regression is to come at some point.

 

No question about that. But the key is can he be close to these numbers 3 months from now, and then hopefully have a hot streak during the trade window? Like I said earlier, teams aren't stupid they know what Chris Carter is. At the same time, teams recognize adding a power hitter who is hot, even it only lasts a month or two.

[Warning Track Power]

My first thoughts:

 

A massive regression is to come at some point.

 

No question about that. But the key is can he be close to these numbers 3 months from now, and then hopefully have a hot streak during the trade window? Like I said earlier, teams aren't stupid they know what Chris Carter is. At the same time, teams recognize adding a power hitter who is hot, even it only lasts a month or two.

Which reminds me a lot of Adam Lind and the return we received for him. While we will not know the impact of the three young pitchers the Brewers received for him, it was very hard at the time to not think the Brewers could've/should've gotten more for Lind. The rest of the league knows these players too.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yes, but Lind was a different story. That trade was done before the season, meaning any team that wanted him was counting on a full year of production. Trade deadline signings are different, in that teams are willing to pay for a hot bat. Yes, they know Carter won't keep up those number for multiple years, all they need is a couple months.

[Boomer5]

IF Carter keeps this up (not betting on it) and a contending team needs a bat in July, he could bring back a Davies type of arm on the high end or at a Barrios on the low end.

[SRB]

My first thoughts:

 

A massive regression is to come at some point.

 

No question about that. But the key is can he be close to these numbers 3 months from now, and then hopefully have a hot streak during the trade window? Like I said earlier, teams aren't stupid they know what Chris Carter is. At the same time, teams recognize adding a power hitter who is hot, even it only lasts a month or two.

Which reminds me a lot of Adam Lind and the return we received for him. While we will not know the impact of the three young pitchers the Brewers received for him, it was very hard at the time to not think the Brewers could've/should've gotten more for Lind. The rest of the league knows these players too.

 

The Lind trade was confusing because Lind has a track record of being an excellent platoon hitter, not because we were selling after a career year.

[endaround]

Yep, Lind was a solid performer for years. Carter was non-tendered he was so bad in 2015 by the Astros who had no real 1B/DH options ready but still did not want to spend $3m on Carter.

 

The best thing for trading Carter is that he can be traded at any time. If I'm the White Sox, I'd would be inquiring daily trying to get something to done to shore up their DH slot.

[jerichoholicninja]

I imagine the value of Carter to other teams is all over the pace. He has big time power but his OBP has been atrocious. And even if he maintains a decent OBP through this trade deadline or even next year what are teams going to give up for one year or a half season of a 30 year old who only recently has shown OBP skills. I was not a fan of the Lind return and he at least had a track record of high OBP & decent SLUG. I can't see Carter bringing back anything more unless he greatly increases his OBP.

[DHonks]

Jericho, I thought Carter had very strong OBP skills for a guy that hits for a very low average. Last year his OBP was fine given his pathetic avg

[pacopete4]

His on base is fine when in consideration of his batting average. If he ever was to hit .250 over a season, his numbers would be very good.

[jerichoholicninja]

Jericho, I thought Carter had very strong OBP skills for a guy that hits for a very low average. Last year his OBP was fine given his pathetic avg

 

His on base is fine when in consideration of his batting average. If he ever was to hit .250 over a season, his numbers would be very good.

 

His walk rate is fine. But when you can only hit .200 it kills your OBP. Last year his OBP was .307 and it's .313 for his career. We're talking Segura level OBP.

[pacopete4]

Jericho, I thought Carter had very strong OBP skills for a guy that hits for a very low average. Last year his OBP was fine given his pathetic avg

 

His on base is fine when in consideration of his batting average. If he ever was to hit .250 over a season, his numbers would be very good.

 

His walk rate is fine. But when you can only hit .200 it kills your OBP. Last year his OBP was .307 and it's .313 for his career. We're talking Segura level OBP.

 

 

Yes. He needs to be more consistent hitting. So far this year he has done a better job of that but it is early.

[MrTPlush]

His walk rate is fine. But when you can only hit .200 it kills your OBP. Last year his OBP was .307 and it's .313 for his career. We're talking Segura level OBP.

 

Sadly that is still a good 20-30 points higher than what Segura has put up the last two years. As someone else said if he could hit .250 over the course of a year he might be a decent player...however unlikely that happens.

[1992casey]

Jericho, I thought Carter had very strong OBP skills for a guy that hits for a very low average. Last year his OBP was fine given his pathetic avg

Yeah, it might be more accurate to say that his ability to hit for average sucks. Chris has the skills to raise his OBP well above his BA.

 

I wouldn't call Chris' OBP history atrocious simply because we'd lack a word to describe OBPs that are worse. "Sucks" might work, but I think I'd simply call it "inadequate."

[CheezWizHed]

Adam Lind Career: 273/330/463/793

- His OPS by year (300+ PA) goes: 678, 755, 932, 712, 734, 729, 854, 860, 820*

- So he had a late resurgence (29-31 years old) but he struggled against lefties.

- Currently 32 with viable concern about age regression.

 

Chris Carter Career: 220/313/462/775

- His OPS by year (300+PA): 770, 799, 734

- BA is clearly his biggest problem. Last year, he didn't clear the Mendoza line.

- He is 29 this year.

- Switching teams with a fresh start and new BA coach might help a bit, but if he can hit 240 this year, it would be a minor miracle (223, 227,199 BA in those three years with 300+ PA).

 

I'd really doubt that Carter is going to be worth much this season for trades. Perhaps next year, if he can hit around 240/330/470 for the next year and a half, someone might buy in on a consistent improvement taking place. But otherwise, there are probably much better options for a team that wants to make the playoffs.

 

My opinion on Lind's low trade return:

1) I have to think that concern over Lind's age and platoon status are what reduced the trade value of an 800+ OPS 1B.

2) I think Sterns probably had the option of one flawed upper level player or three lower level pitchers that were a bit unknown. So he took the chances on three instead of another "same as" type pitcher.

[FVBrewerFan]

Career numbers don't matter, neither do projections for 2017. Carter's value comes from the fact he's dirt cheap, and provides a power bat for a portion of the season. Long way to go from now until July/early Aug, but if he's hot at that time, that's all that matters. There will be teams that need a power bat, always are.

[JohnBriggs12]

His value could be through the roof if he hits 40 HR this year and is on that pace next year.

[FVBrewerFan]

His value could be through the roof if he hits 40 HR this year and is on that pace next year.

 

In no way would I want to take the chance he repeats this level of success next season. Carter is the very definition of sell high.

[MrTPlush]

The one thing he is doing right now that could make a difference and be something he *could* sustain is his doubles production. Usually he doesn't hit a lot of doubles, but he has already racked up 10 to go with his 7 homeruns. His average is going to drop significantly, but if he can continue to actually tap into his power a team may still find him as a valuable player to have going down the stretch.

[pacopete4]

Maybe Braun rubbed off on him. Braun praised Carter before the season and said he expects him to surpass his previous years stats. Ya just never know what new teammates, coaches, ect.. can do for you. He was a .283 career hitter in the minors.

[MrTPlush]

expects him to surpass his previous years stats.

 

That sure isn't saying much...he was awful last year.