2016 Pitching Staff

[MoreTrife]

Yeah outside of the positive post thread

 

I don't think any of the 2017 talk is feasible. The next time this team competes for a title will be 2019 minimum, probably more like 2021 or 2022 once we've hopefully got a solid core composed of a couple of our top draft picks in the next couple seasons. Now that said, if everything goes right, 2018 could be a decent year, the team could compete for a while and maybe finish around .500. Maybe a rotation of Nelson, Lopez, Hader, Houser, Wang, but it's tough to predict given who we could get for Braun and Lucroy and possible free agent signings.

 

Let's not kid ourselves, a full organizational rebuild is longer than a one or two year process.

 

 

2022? That's almost two developmental cycles built in. All those guys you listed in the rotation will be hitting 30! At the tail end of prime pitching years a bit. Our current cycle will either be a few years into success or we'll be on second rebuild by then.

 

I think 2018 will be first year of actual competitiveness.

[brewcrewdue80]

5 Quality starts thus far. a .299BAA. Cubs #1 at .199BAA. Yes they have Arrieta. But also 32yr old Lester, 33yr old Hammel, and 37yr old Lackey.

Jason Hammel for any other team 4.25ERA or higher. Cubs Cubs 3.23.

 

It is pretty clear to me they are winning at teaching their pitchers to be better. Garza was better for Cubs, Samardzija was better for Cubs. We haven't turned any starter around to any level resembling what the Cubs are doing to 2-3Starters a year now for last 6? seasons? Same can probably be said for St Louis improving their pitching staff. Fire the Pitching Coaches and find new blood. Keep doing it until you find someone that makes a difference. That said, it happened over last offseason. Maybe the tutelage is a work in progress and changes are part of the reason for the early season production.

[pacopete4]

5 Quality starts thus far. a .299BAA. Cubs #1 at .199BAA. Yes they have Arrieta. But also 32yr old Lester, 33yr old Hammel, and 37yr old Lackey.

Jason Hammel for any other team 4.25ERA or higher. Cubs Cubs 3.23.

 

It is pretty clear to me they are winning at teaching their pitchers to be better. Garza was better for Cubs, Samardzija was better for Cubs. We haven't turned any starter around to any level resembling what the Cubs are doing to 2-3Starters a year now for last 6? seasons? Same can probably be said for St Louis improving their pitching staff. Fire the Pitching Coaches and find new blood. Keep doing it until you find someone that makes a difference. That said, it happened over last offseason. Maybe the tutelage is a work in progress and changes are part of the reason for the early season production.

 

 

Didn't we just do this during the offseason? We have a new pitching coach that probably needs more than 25 games to make judgement on.

[SomewhereInTime]

Yeah outside of the positive post thread

 

I don't think any of the 2017 talk is feasible. The next time this team competes for a title will be 2019 minimum, probably more like 2021 or 2022 once we've hopefully got a solid core composed of a couple of our top draft picks in the next couple seasons. Now that said, if everything goes right, 2018 could be a decent year, the team could compete for a while and maybe finish around .500. Maybe a rotation of Nelson, Lopez, Hader, Houser, Wang, but it's tough to predict given who we could get for Braun and Lucroy and possible free agent signings.

 

Let's not kid ourselves, a full organizational rebuild is longer than a one or two year process.

 

 

2022? That's almost two developmental cycles built in. All those guys you listed in the rotation will be hitting 30! At the tail end of prime pitching years a bit. Our current cycle will either be a few years into success or we'll be on second rebuild by then.

 

I think 2018 will be first year of actual competitiveness.

 

Yup, our next time competing for a WS may actually be after our upcoming high draft picks in the next few years are the core of this team. The full rebuild that we're going through can take 5 to 7 years unless things go really well over the next couple of years and enough of our prospects are able to develop into quality major leaguers.

[SomewhereInTime]

Think back to 2002, how long did it take to get to the post season, 6 years. What was the core of that team? High draft picks that we got for multiple really bad seasons

[brewcrewdue80]

Fire the Pitching Coaches and find new blood. Keep doing it until you find someone that makes a difference. That said, it happened over last offseason. Maybe the tutelage is a work in progress and changes are part of the reason for the early season production.

 

 

Didn't we just do this during the offseason? We have a new pitching coach that probably needs more than 25 games to make judgement on.

 

Brew4u, you missed this 2nd sentence after your response to bolded statement. followed by maybe the new man's voice is an adjustment being made that leads to these results.

[Ennder]

The Royals were responsible for developing exactly two members of their rotation last year, plus Herrera and Holland in their bullpen. It's not impossible to have a very good pitching staff if you're not the one developing talent.

 

 

It wasn't a good rotation either.

[DHonks]

I sure hope that Nelson continues to improve, Peralta figures things out (I'd like to see him pitch more vertically in the zone...up down up down), Hader learns to get to 6-7 innings, Lopez shakes off a few bad starts in iffy weather, Jungmann tightens up his mechanics, and Davies returns to normal. Then it'll be fun looking back at all the doom and gloom forecasts and knee-jerk reactions.

[clancyphile]

developing starting pitching is a crapshoot

This is the most true thing in this thread. Undoubtedly teams want to amass as many top-end pitching prospects as possible, but on the other hand look at what got Houston to the playoffs last year:

 

Dallas Keuchel: 7th round pick, never a top 100 prospect, 493 minor league IP

Collin McHugh: 18th round pick, never a top 100 prospect, 657 minor league IP

Scott Feldman: 30th round pick, never a top 100 prospect, 215 minor league IP

Mike Fiers: 22nd round pick, never a top 100 prospect, 483 minor league IP

Lance McCullers: 1st round pick, top 50 prospect, 262 minor league IP

Scott Kazmir: 1st round pick, top 10 prospect, 278 minor league IP

Vince Velasquez: 2nd round pick, top 80 prospect, 296 minor league IP

Roberto Hernandez: NDFA, top 80 prospect, 683 minor league IP

 

Neither Keuchel nor McHugh, the two mainstays of the rotation, were well-regarded prospects and have spent more than 1100 innings in the minor league between them. Hernandez (nee Fausto Carmona) was well-regarded but spent a lot of time in the minors. Feldman got to MLB quickly despite being a low round pick. We all know about Fiers. And then McCullers, Kazmir, and Velasquez were all high-end arms.

 

To bring this back to the Brewers, no doubt the pitching outside of Nelson has been disheartening. But the lesson from the Astros is that pitchers without a world class pedigree emerge and can anchor an MLB rotation. Granted the Brewers haven't exactly been a shining light of the ability to develop these kinds of guys, but for every Lopez and Hader we hope and dream on, a guy like Jon Perrin or Angel Ventura could step up and make significant contributions. It's just all extremely difficult to foresee how it'll all play out.

 

Developing pitching is a crapshoot. I'm not worried about the Brewers' future mound hopes despite the lackluster start to the season by the big league staff and some minor league prospects. The Brewers have ample time to iron it out.

 

That's why I have to look at what pitchers DO in the minors versus reports. I think Brent Suter broke out in 2015. He's having an iffy time in Colorado Spring this year (but show me a pitcher who doesn't have issues in that locale), but he's only issued one walk so far in 19.1 IP - a far better walk rate than he posted last year. He's also allowed only one home run.

 

Jorge Ortega's probably been the best pitching prospect in the organization, and the Crew left him off the 40-man. No walks, just one home run in 22.2 IP.

 

Suter was a 31st-round pick. Ortega was a free agent. But I think both of them are prospects on par with Hader and Lopez.

[MrTPlush]

I sure hope that Nelson continues to improve, Peralta figures things out (I'd like to see him pitch more vertically in the zone...up down up down), Hader learns to get to 6-7 innings, Lopez shakes off a few bad starts in iffy weather, Jungmann tightens up his mechanics, and Davies returns to normal. Then it'll be fun looking back at all the doom and gloom forecasts and knee-jerk reactions.

 

Feel free to bookmark it. I won't hold my breath.

[Crash2303]

I know this was discussed somewhat in the offseason, but since we're not in contention and with the injuries and complete disaster of a starting rotation we've already seen auditions from Guerra and Davies. this would be an optimal time to revisit current relievers Thornburg, Blazek, and Smith & Nolin (once they return) in the rotation and see what they've got (especially Smith & Thorny). I think we're not dealing any of them this season, so we won't risk lowering their immediate value if they fail, but could always return next year to the pen or late this year if they don't work out. however, next year all could be potential trade candidates. they have already established themselves as valuable bullpen pieces, it would only improve their trade value and possibly improve our rotation by seeing if they're capable MLB starters.

 

Thornburg

Started all through the minors, and was being stretched out as a starter as late as last year in AAA.

His most recent stint as a starter in MLB was in 2013, 7 GS, 43IP, 1.47ERA, 7.1K/9, 1.16WHIP

 

Blazek

A career starter in the minors, Blazek had been struggling with a move to the bullpen in 2013 as a rookie in MLB. Towards the latter half of 2014, Blazek moved back to the rotation in AAA and in 17GS, spanning 77IP he had a 3.62ERA, 7.1K/9, 1.25WHIP. Since then, he's found his groove and has been great in the bullpen. would that success continue as a starter?

 

Smith

As a starter in the minors, Smith was pedestrian with his fastball, plus change, and curve. but in his last year with KC, he developed a slider, which has become one of the best pitches in baseball. Here's an article that chronicles that development when he came to the crew http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/brewers-land-will-smith-and-his-possible-breakthrough/

He's not only been one of the best relievers in baseball, he also has low split differentials between righties and lefties. so why have we not tried him in the rotation yet?

 

Nolin

When he returns- he should get a shot at the rotation. He probably is more suited for the bullpen, as his pitches can "play up" there, as he hasn't been able to find much elite success as a starter in the upper levels. but, he's got the talent so why not see what he can do.

[trwi7]

I have a hard time believing Smith ever had a plus change. If he did, he would've stayed in the rotation.

[paul253]

I'm all for Thornburg moving to the rotation but I think that ship has sailed. He had the results but it seems the organization was more interested in projections than results

[danzig6767]

I'm all for Thornburg moving to the rotation but I think that ship has sailed. He had the results but it seems the organization was more interested in projections than results

I think Thornburg was moved to the bullpen more so because the team feels it's the best chance for him to stay healthy.

[umphrey]

Honestly it's probably better for the team to keep them in the bullpen. Thornburg, Smith, Blazek those guys could be nice trade chips as 8th inning guys with 3.xx ERAs. Put them in the rotation and they are probably 4.xx ERA guys with injury histories and the contending teams aren't looking for that.

[Crash2303]

or maybe one of them is not a 4.xxERA guy and he becomes a solid starter, which is much more valuable to our team or to any team. but you don't really know unless you give them an opportunity.

 

Trwi7- Re: Smith's changeup I was going off of memory from things I read on brewerfan along with the quote from Yost in the linked article. going into scouting reports it looks like he used the changeup in the minors, but has reduced his useage of it in the majors as a reliever and has graded as about average in its limited usage. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8048&position=P#pitchtype

[Boomer5]

Dont worry. Help is on the way. They just claimed 29 year old Michael Kirkman.

 

Wasnt he a Brewer in the past?

[markedman5]

Highest soft-hit rates

Jimmy Nelson 51% of AB end with a soft-hit ball

Marcus Stroman 51%

Mat Latos 51%

CC Sabathia 50%

Jake Arrieta 50%

[sveumrules]

I'm in the camp of keeping Blazek, Thornburg & Smith in the bullpen. Blazek & Thornburg are already pretty meh as relievers, expose them to a lineup a second time around & I don't think it would be pretty.

 

Smith has at least shown the capacity to be dominant at times, but he's also faded in the second half each of the last two years. Maybe it's easier to throw 200 innings over 32 evenly spaced outings than it is to throw 65 in randomly spaced 1 IP intervals, but at this point I'd rather keep him in the pen when he returns from injury.

[MrTPlush]

Thornburg, Smith, Blazek those guys could be nice trade chips as 8th inning guys with 3.xx ERAs.

 

A 3 ERA or more in the bullpen isn't even that good.

[brewmann04]

Wow Chase Anderson has been really bad and i guess if Lopez hasn't struggled he would have replaced him.

[SRB]

=Zach Davies - Maybe the most overrated player in awhile. He is 6' and weighs 155 pounds according to BR.com and people are expecting a sub 4 ERA and a #3 starter. Will never get the excitement for him.

 

I'm not sure weight (or lack thereof) is the greatest metric for evaluating a pitching prospect...

[jerichoholicninja]

=Zach Davies - Maybe the most overrated player in awhile. He is 6' and weighs 155 pounds according to BR.com and people are expecting a sub 4 ERA and a #3 starter. Will never get the excitement for him.

 

I'm not sure weight (or lack thereof) is the greatest metric for evaluating a pitching prospect...

 

It's gospel for some. There's an organization that I read about (I can't remember who it was) who told their scouts not to bother looking at pitchers under 6'2". I understand why size is exciting but dismissing a pitcher because he's "short" is just stupid.

[SRB]

=Zach Davies - Maybe the most overrated player in awhile. He is 6' and weighs 155 pounds according to BR.com and people are expecting a sub 4 ERA and a #3 starter. Will never get the excitement for him.

 

I'm not sure weight (or lack thereof) is the greatest metric for evaluating a pitching prospect...

 

It's gospel for some. There's an organization that I read about (I can't remember who it was) who told their scouts not to bother looking at pitchers under 6'2". I understand why size is exciting but dismissing a pitcher because he's "short" is just stupid.

 

Well, at least height does directly affect the mechanism of pitching. But given the range of Cy Young winners from Bartolo Colon to Tim Lincecum, I'm not sure the fact that Davies is skinny really tell us all that much.

[superfly]

Anderson is hideoussssssss. Davies really isn't that far behind. This staff may set records for being historically bad.