2016 Pitching Staff

[paul253]

I am really starting to worry about the future of this franchise. The pitching staff was supposed to be the highlight of this team and yet they are awful. We cannot build around Peralta and Jungmann. Nelson is really the only guy I see that still has a chance to get better. And looking at the minors we have, what, a couple of mid rotation guys in Hader and Lopez and then nothing. The last major bout of success we had in 2010-2011 with the likes of Fielder, Hart, Braun and Weeks was cut short due to a lack of high end pitching. And the high end pitching we DID have, mainly Greinke, was acquired as a short term rental. We cannot be successful throwing out a bunch of mid to back rotation guys every night but we don't have anyone in the entire system who projects to be better than that.

[SomewhereInTime]

I'm finally not worried about the future of this franchise. This pitching staff is exactly what I expected, terrible. I didn't in any way expect them to build around Peralta or Jungmann, I just hope Peralta can maybe turn it around a bit and we can flip him for some prospects. It's a rebuild, we're basically in year 1 of a minimum of a 4 year process. Losing a lot of games in the next two years gives us three very high draft picks in a row and that will be huge for the future of this franchise.

[paul253]

Yeah but for a rebuild to be successful you still need high level prospects you can look to build around. We can all name the position players that are high level guys we plan on building around (Arcia, Phillips, Clark, Santana, Nottingham, etc). Who are the pitchers we are going to build around? Lopez, whose struggling mightily in AAA, Hader, who can barely make it through five innings and.........????? Face it, guys like Jungmann, Davies, and Nelson were/are part of the plan. Only Nelson seems like he's figured it out. We have nobody who projects as a #1. Nobody who projects as a #2. Maybe a few #3s but mostly back end guys. Good depth, but no aces. And yeah we'll get good picks but that certainly doesn't guarantee anything. I was all for the rebuild and I think they did what they needed to do. But with Jungmann, Davies and Peralta struggling so badly it's not looking good. And while Peralta may not be part of the future, at this point flipping him for any worthwhile prospects seems like a pipe dream.

[FVBrewerFan]

Paul, I've been feeling that way lately as well. I was optimistic the 2017 rotation could beat expectations with Nelson, Peralta, Hader, Lopez, Davies. Not a title contending rotation, but the start of one. 2016 would be the year Peralta returns to earlier success, the young guys continue to dominate in AAA, and real hope for 2017. Then Ponce and Williams are a year or two away. Well, all of that is out the window.

 

Now I've come to realize this is probably not going to be the window. They are not going to be ready to compete in 2018, which I thought was at least possible. Instead, it looks like we'll have to wait for the next wave, mostly guys in A ball and below. Hopefully when those guys come up, the Brewers will have a few established guys like Arcia, Phillips, Hader, etc. So we could be looking at 2020 at least before this team is over .500 again.

[pacopete4]

Josh Hader - 400 innings in minors: (Currently in AA, age 22)

Jose Berrios - 450 innings in minors: (Currently in MLB, age 22)

Jon Gray - 280 innings in minors: (Currently in MLB, entered at age 23)

Tyler Glasnow - 400 innings in minors: (Currently in AAA, age 22)

Steven Matz - 380 innings in minors (Currently in MLB, entered at 24)

Archie Bradley - 420 innings in minors (Currently in MLB, entered at age 22)

Blake Snell - 430 innings in minors (Currently in MLB, entered at age 23)

Matt Harvey - 245 innings in minors (Currently in MLB, entered at age 23)

Noah Snydergaard - 450 innings in minors (Currently in MLB, entered at age 22)

 

I tried to grab as many names as I can to compare.

 

 

How is it decided when a player is ready to go? I see innings all across the boards here. All of these guys have had plenty of enough success to be deemed ready to go.

 

I guess my point is I feel as though a lot of times we waste a lot of good years with these pitchers in the minor leagues.

[FVBrewerFan]

How is it decided when a player is ready to go?

 

First, teams have different goals for the year. Whether it's bringing up a stud pitcher to generate interest, a piece to making the playoffs, whatever. In the case of Hader, my guess is they believe even if he was ready, what blow a year of service time in season that's already written off? Plus, he's really struggling to get through 5 innings in his starts.

 

Then, each team has their own philosophy in how they promote players. Some are more aggressive, some more conservative. Brewers fall on the conservative side. When is a player ready? Well, "ready" is very subjective.

 

Finally, every player is different. Are they emotionally ready for MLB? Are the numbers great in AA/AAA simply because they're over-powering guys, or they actually pitching?

[pacopete4]

Yeah I don't know if I was really saying bring up Hader right now, just comparing some players who are relative to his age and innings pitched in the minors to see where the Brewers fall with a lot of this stuff. I get the service time argument too, just always seems like our pitchers are 25-26 when getting to the majors.

[MrTPlush]

The rotation even in the future is a bit of a mystery. The three guys in the near future all have some big concerns:

 

Zach Davies:

The kid is tiny. His ability to start in the rotation, be healthy, and perform is pretty questionable.

 

Jorge Lopez:

Ok I am not going to totally throw Lopez under the bus, but he has been absolutely awful for far. Causes some concern to say the least.

 

Josh Hader:

I really doubt he can last in the rotation. He is small and doesn't have the stamina. If he does someone make it as a starting five he probably won't be as good as some may think he can be.

 

Sure we have Ponce, Medeiros, and Williams even lower on the farm, but who knows what they will end up as. Until they get some experience at AA they are wildcards.

 

I don't think our pitching in the minors is that bad though. I am sure we will get a couple solid mid rotation guys out of this bunch. Not having that frontline guy to put them over the top is kind of a thorn in the side.

[pacopete4]

The rotation even in the future is a bit of a mystery. The three guys in the near future all have some big concerns:

 

Zach Davies:

The kid is tiny. His ability to start in the rotation, be healthy, and perform is pretty questionable.

 

Jorge Lopez:

Ok I am not going to totally throw Lopez under the bus, but he has been absolutely awful for far. Causes some concern to say the least.

 

Josh Hader:

I really doubt he can last in the rotation. He is small and doesn't have the stamina. If he does someone make it as a starting five he probably won't be as good as some may think he can be.

 

Sure we have Ponce, Medeiros, and Williams even lower on the farm, but who knows what they will end up as. Until they get some experience at AA they are wildcards.

 

I don't think our pitching in the minors is that bad though. I am sure we will get a couple solid mid rotation guys out of this bunch. Not having that frontline guy to put them over the top is kind of a thorn in the side.

 

 

Boy, reading this is a kick to the stomach a bit. I know it is probably realistic expectations but without a guy like Hader taking the next step, when do we take the next step? If Lopez truly is not good, and he's one of our top prospects, what are we left with?

[FVBrewerFan]

We're left with waiting a few more years for the pitchers in the low minors to develop.

 

By the way, this is why I was firmly against trading away Wagner and Sneed. Sure, neither had a real high ceiling. But without a couple real projectable studs, they need quantity. They should not be trading away any pitchers in the system at this point.

[MrTPlush]

Boy, reading this is a kick to the stomach a bit. I know it is probably realistic expectations but without a guy like Hader taking the next step, when do we take the next step? If Lopez truly is not good, and he's one of our top prospects, what are we left with?

 

Jorge Lopez is a good pitcher. I think much like some other guys we have had come up recently he is sort of a coin flip. Does he become Nelson or does he end up more like a Peralta? That being said he has only had 4 starts and his walk rate is ridiculous along with his hits given up. I am sure he will turn it around.

 

However if Hader ends up in the bullpen and Lopez doesn't end up a solid mid-rotation guy that really hurts the construction of our future rotation. One(or two) of these guys need to get into the rotation so he(or them) can be a rock solid veteran by the time we are competing. We need some experience in the rotation down the road that we can depend on.

[JohnBriggs12]

Josh Hader - 400 innings in minors: (Currently in AA, age 22)

Jose Berrios - 450 innings in minors: (Currently in MLB, age 22)

Jon Gray - 280 innings in minors: (Currently in MLB, entered at age 23)

Tyler Glasnow - 400 innings in minors: (Currently in AAA, age 22)

Steven Matz - 380 innings in minors (Currently in MLB, entered at 24)

Archie Bradley - 420 innings in minors (Currently in MLB, entered at age 22)

Blake Snell - 430 innings in minors (Currently in MLB, entered at age 23)

Matt Harvey - 245 innings in minors (Currently in MLB, entered at age 23)

Noah Snydergaard - 450 innings in minors (Currently in MLB, entered at age 22)

 

I tried to grab as many names as I can to compare.

 

 

How is it decided when a player is ready to go? I see innings all across the boards here. All of these guys have had plenty of enough success to be deemed ready to go.

 

I guess my point is I feel as though a lot of times we waste a lot of good years with these pitchers in the minor leagues.

 

I couldn't agree with you more. By the way, add Carlos Rodon, age 23 with 159 innings in the minors, currently in MLB to your list.

 

For now I'd be looking at flip flopping Peralta and Thornburg. Thornburg has the pitches to be a starter and was excellent down the last month of 2013. Hopefully Smith and Knebel will be back and what is Magnifico doing still at AAA?

 

Bring up Hader. He's still raw but he's got the best stuff in the entire organization. Start stretching out Thornburg by piggybacking him with Peralta. Send down Jungmann. Bring up Magnifico to pitch the 7th, and slot Blazek in the 8th for now. Bring up Barnes as well. Release Freeman and either Capuano or Torres.

 

Draft a college pitcher with the 5th pick and put him on track to be in Milwaukee by 2018.

[MrTPlush]

I feel like I have been waiting a decade for Magnifico to make the bullpen...mostly due to how awesome his last name is.

[JohnBriggs12]

I feel like I have been waiting a decade for Magnifico to make the bullpen...mostly due to how awesome his last name is.

 

His ERA since the beginning of 2015 is an awesome 1.14. If that's not worth at least a look with a pitching staff like this one, what is?

[pacopete4]

I feel like I have been waiting a decade for Magnifico to make the bullpen...mostly due to how awesome his last name is.

 

His ERA since the beginning of 2015 is an awesome 1.14. If that's not worth at least a look with a pitching staff like this one, what is?

 

 

Yeah, what's the hold up with this guy getting to the majors? I don't understand this one after looking through his stat line. Better than trotting out Freeman, Torres, etc..

[MrTPlush]

Are they just trying to give him more bullpen experience. He is a fairly new to relieving. Or they just want to get him more AA and above experience?

 

Regardless can't wait for him to get a shot at some point this year.

[jerichoholicninja]

Outside of St. Louis, developing starting pitching is a crapshoot. I'm not more or less concerned than I was before the season started.

[And That]

developing starting pitching is a crapshoot

This is the most true thing in this thread. Undoubtedly teams want to amass as many top-end pitching prospects as possible, but on the other hand look at what got Houston to the playoffs last year:

 

Dallas Keuchel: 7th round pick, never a top 100 prospect, 493 minor league IP

Collin McHugh: 18th round pick, never a top 100 prospect, 657 minor league IP

Scott Feldman: 30th round pick, never a top 100 prospect, 215 minor league IP

Mike Fiers: 22nd round pick, never a top 100 prospect, 483 minor league IP

Lance McCullers: 1st round pick, top 50 prospect, 262 minor league IP

Scott Kazmir: 1st round pick, top 10 prospect, 278 minor league IP

Vince Velasquez: 2nd round pick, top 80 prospect, 296 minor league IP

Roberto Hernandez: NDFA, top 80 prospect, 683 minor league IP

 

Neither Keuchel nor McHugh, the two mainstays of the rotation, were well-regarded prospects and have spent more than 1100 innings in the minor league between them. Hernandez (nee Fausto Carmona) was well-regarded but spent a lot of time in the minors. Feldman got to MLB quickly despite being a low round pick. We all know about Fiers. And then McCullers, Kazmir, and Velasquez were all high-end arms.

 

To bring this back to the Brewers, no doubt the pitching outside of Nelson has been disheartening. But the lesson from the Astros is that pitchers without a world class pedigree emerge and can anchor an MLB rotation. Granted the Brewers haven't exactly been a shining light of the ability to develop these kinds of guys, but for every Lopez and Hader we hope and dream on, a guy like Jon Perrin or Angel Ventura could step up and make significant contributions. It's just all extremely difficult to foresee how it'll all play out.

 

Developing pitching is a crapshoot. I'm not worried about the Brewers' future mound hopes despite the lackluster start to the season by the big league staff and some minor league prospects. The Brewers have ample time to iron it out.

[JohnBriggs12]

Houston, for all the talk that they are the Brewers model, to the point where the Brewers hired one of their top officials, is right back down in the basement precisely because their pitching has been worst in the AL this year. Fact is they got lucky with arms that had good years despite not great pedigree which happens, not that their front office were necessarily a bunch of geniuses.

 

Maybe their success last year was more a result of them upgrading the lineup to the point that with good luck with journeymen level pitchers, that they could be a playoff team. Brewers have always relied on that but most years that simply doesn't pan out. Last year the Brewers could have been quite good if Lohse and Garza had good years and they had a little better health with their lineup. They had just the opposite, and that started this whole rebuild movement. Question remains is tanking an overreaction to the failure of pitchers that were prone to fail at some point and will tanking work if you go on the cheap route or don't develop top flight pitching? What if Brewers got lucky and had signed Mat Latos for a few million and plucked Jhoulys Chacin off the scrap heap, and they were along with Nelson in this years rotation along with say, Hader, Peralta or Anderson?

[Boomer5]

What made 2017 possible was the maturity of the starting rotation, which was the only area of the team with young talent at the major league level. The rotation was the one reason you could honestly use the word "rebuild" instead of "tank" because you really were building around some talent.

 

Now I dont know. Only Nelson is a guy Id want on the next good Brewer team as of today.

[JohnBriggs12]

What made 2017 possible was the maturity of the starting rotation, which was the only area of the team with young talent at the major league level. The rotation was the one reason you could honestly use the word "rebuild" instead of "tank" because you really were building around some talent.

 

Now I dont know. Only Nelson is a guy Id want on the next good Brewer team as of today.

 

If they can parlay Lucroy into a quality starting pitcher, add an even more mature Hader to the mix, get a rebound from one of Peralta, Garza, or Jungmann, have another arm emerge from the system, and not turn up their noses to the once good starter who's now out there being ignored in FA and is cheap and healthy as a buy low candidate (like a Latos or Chacin were this year), then anything's still possible.

[And That]

The Royals were responsible for developing exactly two members of their rotation last year, plus Herrera and Holland in their bullpen. It's not impossible to have a very good pitching staff if you're not the one developing talent.

[Boomer5]

What made 2017 possible was the maturity of the starting rotation, which was the only area of the team with young talent at the major league level. The rotation was the one reason you could honestly use the word "rebuild" instead of "tank" because you really were building around some talent.

 

Now I dont know. Only Nelson is a guy Id want on the next good Brewer team as of today.

 

If they can parlay Lucroy into a quality starting pitcher, add an even more mature Hader to the mix, get a rebound from one of Peralta, Garza, or Jungmann, have another arm emerge from the system, and not turn up their noses to the once good starter who's now out there being ignored in FA and is cheap and healthy as a buy low candidate (like a Latos or Chacin were this year), then anything's still possible.

 

I agree that its not hopeless for the rotation in 2017. Id hope at least one of Peralta, Jungmann, or Davies will turn it around and join Nelson. Hader looks to have the stuff to get to the next level once he figures out he doesn't have to strike out every batter. The Luc trade could bring back a possible key starting pitcher. Anderson is a higher end 5th starter/low end 4th starter, which isnt all bad.

 

But, the one area of the team that even I thought would feature legitimate building blocks would be the rotation. So far, this is disappointing.

[pacopete4]

Can we get a starter to pitch more than 5 innings? Yikes

[SomewhereInTime]

Yeah outside of the positive post thread

 

I don't think any of the 2017 talk is feasible. The next time this team competes for a title will be 2019 minimum, probably more like 2021 or 2022 once we've hopefully got a solid core composed of a couple of our top draft picks in the next couple seasons. Now that said, if everything goes right, 2018 could be a decent year, the team could compete for a while and maybe finish around .500. Maybe a rotation of Nelson, Lopez, Hader, Houser, Wang, but it's tough to predict given who we could get for Braun and Lucroy and possible free agent signings.

 

Let's not kid ourselves, a full organizational rebuild is longer than a one or two year process.