Braun trade value now

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, I never thought you were advocating for the Brewers to eat 90% of Braun's contract. Point is, everything should be in play. For example, if a team offered two Top 10 prospects and 3 other high ceiling guys from the low minors, then suddenly eating a big portion of his contract would be worth consideration.

[fondybrewfan]

If Braun is hitting 350 and OPS's around 1.000 no one here thinks there will be some team out there at the trade deadline that would jump all over that? I really think there would be a lot of interest.

 

I don't get this whole bad contract thing; his contract is far from a bad contract and many teams could easily absorb it.

[brewerfan82]

I don't get this whole bad contract thing; his contract is far from a bad contract and many teams could easily absorb it.

 

I don't think many here think it's a bad contract, just a big one. Even if it's fair, it's big enough that many teams simply don't have the payroll space to add it. And it's one for a guy in his age 32-36 seasons, not his age 28-32 seasons. So there's definitely the potential for some drop-off in production and for the contract to become "unfavorable" in the last couple years.

 

The whole eating some-to-much of his contract concept has nothing to do with whether or not it's a fair contract to begin with. It has everything to do with making the pool of interested teams as large as possible and maximizing the return we could get.

[MrTPlush]

If Braun is hitting 350 and OPS's around 1.000 no one here thinks there will be some team out there at the trade deadline that would jump all over that? I really think there would be a lot of interest.

 

I don't get this whole bad contract thing; his contract is far from a bad contract and many teams could easily absorb it.

 

I don't think anyone says it is a bad contract, but that it is big. I also think they are hinting it is near market value. However history has shown we don't have to eat money to get a nice deal.

 

I don't think it would even be worth it for us to eat part of his contract. To really make a difference you are probably talking $20mil...$20mil is a pretty darn good prospect and one I can't see being offered just to eat money.

[brewcrewdue80]

The only part of his contract I'd eat would be the deferred 18mil over 2022-2031. You're left with 5/75 or 6/86 if both sides pick up the option.

15mil. That puts him in Russell Martin, Yadier Molina, and even Miguel Montero territory. Mid 60s overall per year. Mike Leake, John Lackey(37),Melvin Upton and even Marco Estrada next season.

 

He proved it last night his bat is special at any moment. Best team in Baseball and he calmly drives in 2 with a double team down 4-1. Playoff teams need that kind of hitter. He's been there and done it. Washington just paid Daniel Murphy 8/12/17.5-3/37.5mil for what he had done in last season's post-season. His bat won the Chc series. Braun has that capability and an owner will go about acquiring him if they see him as the missing piece ala Cespedes.

[MrTPlush]

The only part of his contract I'd eat would be the deferred 18mil over 2022-2031.

 

And even then it better make a major difference in the return for eating that much of the contract. Past $18mil is borderline ridiculous and extremely unlikely. It would take too much for a team trading for him to even make sense of it.

[brewmann04]

The only way that i would not mind moving braun is that if a team way overpays for him in prospects.

[brewcrewdue80]

The only part of his contract I'd eat would be the deferred 18mil over 2022-2031.

 

And even then it better make a major difference in the return for eating that much of the contract. Past $18mil is borderline ridiculous and extremely unlikely. It would take too much for a team trading for him to even make sense of it.

 

You're paying the deferred payments. It would be 2mil a year 2022-2031. Maybe it becomes something where he takes on a future roll as a coach. Hitting would be obvious. He's going to collect a check from Milw. May just come back to the organization. Begin the next future of a minors coach. Didn't take Bonds long to reach the Majors in that role.

[pacopete4]

I think an even better thread might be what is Carter's value going to be if he continues his torrid pace he's been on. Is he a guy we hold onto or move on from and get even more trade pieces? All I know is an AL team should be drooling over him if his numbers are even close to what he's at come June/July. At $2.5 mil, he's cheap and controllable. This could be a huge get for Stearns.

[MrTPlush]

I think an even better thread might be what is Carter's value going to be if he continues his torrid pace he's been on. Is he a guy we hold onto or move on from and get even more trade pieces? All I know is an AL team should be drooling over him if his numbers are even close to what he's at come June/July. At $2.5 mil, he's cheap and controllable. This could be a huge get for Stearns.

 

I was going to reply, but I will wait for you to copy/paste that and make a new thread because it is a good topic. I don't want to derail this thread into multiple topics though.

[pacopete4]

I think an even better thread might be what is Carter's value going to be if he continues his torrid pace he's been on. Is he a guy we hold onto or move on from and get even more trade pieces? All I know is an AL team should be drooling over him if his numbers are even close to what he's at come June/July. At $2.5 mil, he's cheap and controllable. This could be a huge get for Stearns.

 

I was going to reply, but I will wait for you to copy/paste that and make a new thread because it is a good topic. I don't want to derail this thread into multiple topics though.

 

 

Moved, sorry. http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=33954

[JohnBriggs12]

Apparently Rosenthal tweeted out the teams that are not on Braun's no- trade list. The Marlin telecast included a lot of speculation that the Angels are interested in Braun. But like most who don't follow the Brewers, they still thought the Brewer system was barren. They didn't mention the Angels have the worst system in baseball and couldn't come close to the asking price. Giving Braun away for anything but premier top of the line prospect as the key piece would be insane unless you think Braun won't be productive beyond 2017. The payroll savings angle for a team who',s payroll is a mere $60 million with Braun, is nowhere near enough incentive to trade still one of the premier players in the game.

[MrTPlush]

Yah there is no way the Angels could do it. Prospects just aren't there nor would they take on the money.

 

Braun (if traded) will likely go to a team on his no-trade list, but will waive it for, at worst, his option year being picked up. Which at $11mil isn't that bad. Though the Brewers could either kick in that money or the deferred money to make it happen.

[pacopete4]

We won't have a better hitter on our team in many, many years. Pitching wins but Brauns bat is very special and can be s huge part of the next wave to come.

[mlloyd10]

We won't have a better hitter on our team in many, many years. Pitching wins but Brauns bat is very special and can be s huge part of the next wave to come.

 

Next wave is 3 years away...Braun won't be the hitter he is today

[pacopete4]

We won't have a better hitter on our team in many, many years. Pitching wins but Brauns bat is very special and can be s huge part of the next wave to come.

 

Next wave is 3 years away...Braun won't be the hitter he is today

 

 

I'm in the pool that thinks it's sooner. The minute Arcia, Phillips, Hader arrive (2017) this team is in position to start moving forward. Having a top end player like Braun who carries himself the right way will be a big help to those younger players. So unless you get a franchise changing group of players for him, I truly feel he's best served in a Milwaukee uniform.

[MrTPlush]

We won't have a better hitter on our team in many, many years. Pitching wins but Brauns bat is very special and can be s huge part of the next wave to come.

 

I know you love Braun, but I just hope we are competing by the end of Braun's contract. Not to mention he will decline and his nice string of health to start this season won't last. He did not just go from a body of glass to great health. If he goes into July healthy and hitting well it is probably best for the future of this team to trade him. Assuming we get a really solid deal.

 

You want to hang onto Braun for 2.5years of garbage baseball so he can hopefully help us on a 2019/2020 winning team? I'm not confident he can last half the year healthy none the less 2.5 years and still compete after that wait. All while spending millions upon millions? Most realistic scenario is we get stuck with an above average hitter who kills the majority of that value with poor defense all while paying him big bucks. Not to mention he may block a guy like Trent Clark from playing. At which point most fans will wish we dumped him at the 2016 deadline.

[Hammer]

One thing that people need to remember is that we cannot get too attached to superstar players that are within a couple/few years of the end of their contract. They need to be traded! That is the only way a team like Milwaukee will continuously have high-end talent in the minors. Grow them, use them and the trade them away.

Just my $.02

[FVBrewerFan]

I get the sense a lot of us are overly optimistic about when this team will be a true contender again. I keep seeing 2017 and 2018, and that's just not realistic. Is this the START of getting back on track? Absolutely. But there is simply no way the rotation will be a playoff rotation that soon. Even IF Hader arrives as a polished MLB starter, that gives you TWO guys in the rotation you can count on. Not to mention guys like Arcia and Phillips won't automatically be .800+ OPS guys that soon.

 

It's dangerous to predict when they will be competitive again, just way too many factors at this point. But I can tell you it won't be in 2017 or 2018.

[Roderick]

We won't have a better hitter on our team in many, many years. Pitching wins but Brauns bat is very special and can be s huge part of the next wave to come.

 

Next wave is 3 years away...Braun won't be the hitter he is today

 

 

I'm in the pool that thinks it's sooner. The minute Arcia, Phillips, Hader arrive (2017) this team is in position to start moving forward.

 

I think to assume we would be competitive sooner than later we needed two out of the three of Jungmann/Davies/Anderson to pitch like they are at least #4 level pitchers in the league. Combined with Nelson being a #2 type and Peralta pitching good enough to bring back a trade haul. I don't see much of that happening, you may rearrange the deck chairs on the titanic with Peralta and Garza gone and youngsters in the rotation, but I don't see enough starting pitching to think 2017 would be any sort of springboard.

[fondybrewfan]

If people think that starting in 2017 we can start to ascend again I gotta believe that would require a significant starting pitcher signing or trade. With Phillips and Arcia I think the offense can be good enough the pitching simply has a very long way to go. Assuming Hader is solid you have Nelson, Hader and ? Lopez and Jungmann have both flamed out so far.

 

The more likely scenario is we play 2017 with Hader, Arcia, and Phillips for all or a significant portion of the year. If they show enough potential and the team does well enough then Stearns will make some moves Winter 2017. In addition to Nelson and Hader we need at least 1 more cost controlled minor leaguer to break through. So someone out of the Lopez, Mederios, Ponce, Devin Williams group is going to have the break out if we hope to compete in 2018. You can't buy 3/5ths of your starting rotation.

[FVBrewerFan]

Right, also the line-up is far from set in 2017/2018. You can say "just add Arcia and Phillips" but remember they'll also be subtracting Lucroy and Carter. That's almost an impossible number of dominos that would have to fall into place in the next couple years for both the rotation and line-up to be playoff-ready.

 

That's why I think expectations are so important, and this will all be easier to take if we focus on improvement rather that the playoffs for the foreseeable future.

[CheezWizHed]

I've been a Braun supporter for some time now, even through his PEDs saga. But frankly, if he is hitting well enough to bring back some top pitching prospects, I think we need to leverage it. Summary of my thinking:

1) Look at the "next wave". Deep in position players (except 1B), but nothing really special for Pitching. We have a lot of guys that have #3-4 SP ceilings with maybe a couple #2 level. But very little at the #1-2 level. Sure, those guys don't grow on trees, but we seem to have far fewer than other teams.

 

2) At best, Braun will be declining to a low 800 OPS type player when we are ready to compete again. He won't be worthless, but we might have better options by then too. Then it will be too late to trade him.

 

3) I'm all for paying part of his contract to get better prospects back. For those that question this, ask yourself: "How much is fair to buy another draft pick?" Then ask, "How much is fair to buy a draft pick where we know how his first few years will turn out?" Because by paying some of Braun's contract, you are basically buying a player on the other team. Right now, we have a very low payroll and can leverage that to continue building the minors. Not everyone has that payroll flexibility and we could take advantage of that. How much? The Brewer bean counters will figure that out. But its worth using to our advantage.

[brewcrewdue80]

Those that aren't optimistic are looking at current landscape. Remember the Lucroy trade potential of landing a TOR starter. Lucroy is covered by Nottingham. Arcia I'm not expecting 800+OPS. Anything in the 700s with Gold Glove defense will equal 4+WAR. Phillips the same. 700OPS w/+defense. Santana. Makes 4bats. Braun is 5. Nelson-Lucroy TOR Prospect-Hader- 2 SPs Lopez/Davies? We'd still have Jeffress,Smith,Kneble, and Blazek bullpen. With health yeah this can be a winning and more competitive team.

[FVBrewerFan]

Lucroy is covered by Nottingham?? Good example of how a lot of people are projecting players into roles that are a country mile from being a given. Absolutely no way of knowing if they get pack a TOR starter for Lucroy. And then you throw in Lopez/Davies? So 3/5 of the competitive rotation you cite are not even close to being reality. And that's with looking past Hader being penciled in as an automatic.

 

I have no problem with optimism. I'm very optimistic about the future, it's just that I don't believe for a minute this team will be competing for the playoffs in 2017 or 2018.