Braun trade value now

[FVBrewerFan]

Personally following the Cubs model is probably a bad idea.

 

Stearns has said many times every situation is unique. The Brewers are now following the Cubs model 100%, or any other team (KC, Houston, Pittsburgh, etc.) And nobody here is advocating they do so either. In fact, Stearns doesn't even know exactly how the team will be reconstructed yet, the process has only begun.

 

As they stand today, the rotation is in shambles. Davies is the first guy up, and has struggled. The next, Lopez, is struggling in AAA. After that, Hader, who can be dominant but also struggle to get through 5 innings. I'm not saying write all these guys off, every one of them could be quality MLB pitchers. What I AM saying is this rotation is a long way away from being a title-contending rotation. I think you would agree?

 

So why in the world would you hang on to Braun and Lucroy through that whole process when they'll be on the wrong side of 35 before the Brewers are competitive again?

 

It is true there are no guarantees the Cubs model, Astros model, or any other form of rebuilding will work. But it does have the best possible chance of success.

[reillymcshane]

A 'Cubs model' isn't really what the Brewers are going to be able to follow. The Cubs have dropped tens of millions of dollars signing international free agents. We simply aren't doing that. And the Cubs have committed $150M+ contracts to veterans (Lester, Heyward) - again, something we aren't going to do.

 

Milwaukee have done many of the things the Cubs have done in their rebuild, but we are rarely going to play in the deep money pool of free agency and international signings. That's a huge difference between these clubs. The Cubs can spend and spend some more to overcome shortcomings. Milwaukee needs to be more disciplined, find more bargains, develop more players via the traditional draft, and turn players over at a higher rate.

[reillymcshane]

Back to topic - Braun's trade value.

 

Of course, a great month is going to help his value. But I just don't think anyone really knows how much we will get in return for the guy. The biggest things are probably his injury issues, age and contract. $90M+ isn't outrageous if he performs - but his past injuries and age make taking on such a contract a big risk.

 

The PED thing is also an issue. I know some people say 'no one cares about the PED stuff' anymore - but I disagree. It only takes one person to 'care' about his past usage to put the kibosh on some kind of trade. If one GM thinks that way, it's one less guy who we can deal with. I certainly agree that many people won't care about his PED use - but some will.

 

The PED use is tied to Braun's public perception - some people hate him. He lied to the public about taking them, he lied to his teammates, he lied to the organization, he 'threw a guy under the bus' to save himself (I still here this line from people today - blaming the specimen carrier and inferring that the guy had something to do with the bad test really gets some people angry). A few years ago he was the 2nd most hated guy in baseball. Again, much of this has subsided. But some of it hasn't. There's potential fan backlash, as well as backlash within a team. If a club is thinking about trading for Braun, they are going to assess how it's going to go over with fans and the players. Again, this may not be that big of a deal, but it can go into the overall assessment of acquiring the guy.

 

Last thing is Braun's position limits him. He's a LF, RF or DH. A team is going to have to have a need for one of those positions.

 

In the end, there are a lot of things that make me wonder how much someone will give up for Ryan. There are a lot of things that give someone pause to give up a lot for him. Perhaps if he is hitting .360 in July someone will cave in.

 

I also want to add that Milwaukee has no hitting stars. Braun is the closest thing to a stud hitter. I know it's rebuilding time, and if a great deal is offered, I'd take it. But if not, Ryan could still be part of the next good Brewer club in 2018 or 2019 (I'm hoping!). He might not be great, but he still could be a quality player at that time (or he could be terrible - who knows). I don't want to trade the guy just to free up money (unless that money will be used in better ways).

[yoshii8]

I would 100% have Braun on the trade block right now. I think he has to have some decent trade value, he definitely could put a contending team over the top.

[brewcrewdue80]

Trade happy. Someone above posted a good reason why to keep Braun. Davies is off to poor start. Lopez even worse in AAA. Our prospects aren't building confidence that they'll be leading the way of this rebuild. CF is a mess and we're waiting for somebody or Phillips to take their spot as becoming a fixture of the rebuild. You add Santana that's 2/3rds leaving 1 more OF position to fill. I don't believe it's a this season away to find. 2 seasons even. Maybe as a rookie 2018 Braun's true replacement will be found. But to trade him now leaves another black hole that we are likely filling in with .600s at best OPS. Gennett or Santana would be our #3 hitter hows that for the future 2years? It's highly likely that in 2018-2020 Braun is still the best hitter on the team overall. It's not like we have a Braun type talent in our minors knocking on the ML door. Hopefuls sure, but not sure things.

 

As to the question trade value. I've never believed it was really gone. It's more biding time seeing how he performs while more of his contract expires. He's had 3 straight seasons of questioning his ability. Should he have another 2015 like season and he's heading that way and then some, owners will come asking what they must give up for Braun.

[And That]

Braun's trade value to other clubs is also directly tied to how much of Braun's contract the Brewers would be willing to take on. If the Brewers were willing to pay 80%-90% of the remainder of the contract, I imagine there would be teams jumping through Stearns' window trying to get a deal done if Braun keeps this up for another month or two.

 

If the Brewers aren't willing to kick in much, or just pay the deferrals, probably not so much.

[tmwiese55]

Can someone find a team without a PED link of some kind? I think it's a moot point. it's all about his injuries the last few years and whether he can produce the next 4-5 years.

[reillymcshane]

Can someone find a team without a PED link of some kind? I think it's a moot point. it's all about his injuries the last few years and whether he can produce the next 4-5 years.

As I said, it's not just a PED link. He lied to the team, he lied to his teammates, he lied to the public. He then inferred the specimen guy had done something to taint his sample. Many people don't care about that - just as many don't care about A-Rod (who did many of the same things). But some in baseball (players, front office staff, coaches) might not be forgiving. I doubt it becomes a deal breaker for most, but a team would be foolish not to take it all into account in their overall evaluation of Braun by another team.

 

If Braun had come out on day one and said, "I took these for an injury. I didn't think they were an issue. Dumb on my part. I apologize." - I don't think many people would remember it at all. But he didn't, and some people are always going to see him in a very harsh light.

[splitterpfj]

Reilly, I agree, as far as the PED stuff goes, the press conference is the real problem here. Even so, Braun can really hit, there is no doubt he would help a team, so I expect somebody to take a good long look at him.

 

I think it will be about the money - the Brewers will be able to find a taker, but the return will be tightly linked to the dollars.

 

I could be wrong, but the way Braun is hitting, I just don't believe contending teams won't show up at the auction.

[MrTPlush]

Braun's trade value to other clubs is also directly tied to how much of Braun's contract the Brewers would be willing to take on. If the Brewers were willing to pay 80%-90% of the remainder of the contract, I imagine there would be teams jumping through Stearns' window trying to get a deal done if Braun keeps this up for another month or two.

 

If the Brewers aren't willing to kick in much, or just pay the deferrals, probably not so much.

 

I think you are underestimating what Braun *could* be worth. Ryan Braun, to an extent, is similar to Cole Hamels. Each is an elite player, owed a lot of money, and on the wrong side of 30.

 

Cole Hamels was traded for quite a haul so I don't think picking up money is even needed. If Braun is hitting like an MVP he *could* bring back a haul quite easily even while shedding the entire contract.

 

I say *could* because like the rest of you I have zero idea what other teams think of Braun. For all I know Braun is the spawn of the devil and no team wants him even if he is hitting .500

[brewerfan82]

Braun's trade value to other clubs is also directly tied to how much of Braun's contract the Brewers would be willing to take on. If the Brewers were willing to pay 80%-90% of the remainder of the contract, I imagine there would be teams jumping through Stearns' window trying to get a deal done if Braun keeps this up for another month or two.

 

If the Brewers aren't willing to kick in much, or just pay the deferrals, probably not so much.

 

I think you are underestimating what Braun *could* be worth. Ryan Braun, to an extent, is similar to Cole Hamels. Each is an elite player, owed a lot of money, and on the wrong side of 30.

 

Cole Hamels was traded for quite a haul so I don't think picking up money is even needed. If Braun is hitting like an MVP he *could* bring back a haul quite easily even while shedding the entire contract.

 

I say *could* because like the rest of you I have zero idea what other teams think of Braun. For all I know Braun is the spawn of the devil and no team wants him even if he is hitting .500

 

I don't know that anyone thinks we *have* to pick up any money, just that we have the financial flexibility to create a greater return value and availability to other teams by doing so. If you refuse to pick up any money, then you're eliminating any teams that don't have the financial flexibility to pick up his contract. So why not be open to it and see what offers you can get? That doesn't mean a team doesn't exist that doesn't mind taking on his contract and will still offer a legitimate return, but if a better offer comes from a team that's willing to pay significantly more in talent if you can pick up some of what he's owed, why not be open to that? And of course, if two teams get in a bidding war and the return is comparable, you go with whichever team takes the most of his contract along with him, but with our payroll so low as it is, I think getting the most talent back is the biggest concern in any trade over the next couple years.

[MrTPlush]

Didn't say taking on money wouldn't facilitate a better return. However he was inferring it would take 80% of the contract to get teams to jump through the window which, in my opinion, is ridiculous. He also infers that picking up no money means near all likelihood a quite weak return...which I think is flat out false.

[And That]

However he was inferring it would take 80% of the contract to get teams to jump through the window which, in my opinion, is ridiculous. He also infers that picking up no money means near all likelihood a quite weak return...which I think is flat out false.

I was inferring neither of those things. I infer that you were reading things into a statement in order to disagree.

 

To summarize: At 80%, window breaking. At 5%, probably not window breaking. And not an either/or.

 

Also, this seems to disagree with your stance from about six weeks ago.

[MrTPlush]

However he was inferring it would take 80% of the contract to get teams to jump through the window which, in my opinion, is ridiculous. He also infers that picking up no money means near all likelihood a quite weak return...which I think is flat out false.

I was inferring neither of those things. I infer that you were reading things into a statement in order to disagree.

 

To summarize: At 80%, window breaking. At 5%, probably not window breaking. And not an either/or.

 

Also, this seems to disagree with your stance from about six weeks ago.

 

Was he mashing like an MVP or healthy 6 weeks ago? No...so I don't understand your statement.

 

But to answer your question yes it does disagree with my previous statement. His stats have dramatically changed and he has been healthy. I don't see anything wrong with changing my stance if Braun suddenly changed himself.

[reillymcshane]

Braun's trade value to other clubs is also directly tied to how much of Braun's contract the Brewers would be willing to take on. If the Brewers were willing to pay 80%-90% of the remainder of the contract, I imagine there would be teams jumping through Stearns' window trying to get a deal done if Braun keeps this up for another month or two.

 

If the Brewers aren't willing to kick in much, or just pay the deferrals, probably not so much.

 

I think you are underestimating what Braun *could* be worth. Ryan Braun, to an extent, is similar to Cole Hamels. Each is an elite player, owed a lot of money, and on the wrong side of 30.

 

Cole Hamels was traded for quite a haul so I don't think picking up money is even needed. If Braun is hitting like an MVP he *could* bring back a haul quite easily even while shedding the entire contract.

 

I say *could* because like the rest of you I have zero idea what other teams think of Braun. For all I know Braun is the spawn of the devil and no team wants him even if he is hitting .500

Difference between Hamels and Braun is health. Hamels has 6 straight years of 200+ IP. 8 straight years of at least 30 starts. Even last year, when Braun played well, he still only started 134 games. The year before was about the same (the year before that was the suspension year, which he would have missed a lot of due to injury).

 

Like you note, he 'could' be worth a ton. Braun's just gotta keep hitting and stay healthy. It only takes one team to make an offer.

[pacopete4]

I'll take 140 games of Braun over what most of the league has to offer. Much like the NBA is finding out, playing every game is probably not a good idea anyways.

[clancyphile]

Trade happy. Someone above posted a good reason why to keep Braun. Davies is off to poor start. Lopez even worse in AAA. Our prospects aren't building confidence that they'll be leading the way of this rebuild. CF is a mess and we're waiting for somebody or Phillips to take their spot as becoming a fixture of the rebuild. You add Santana that's 2/3rds leaving 1 more OF position to fill. I don't believe it's a this season away to find. 2 seasons even. Maybe as a rookie 2018 Braun's true replacement will be found. But to trade him now leaves another black hole that we are likely filling in with .600s at best OPS. Gennett or Santana would be our #3 hitter hows that for the future 2years? It's highly likely that in 2018-2020 Braun is still the best hitter on the team overall. It's not like we have a Braun type talent in our minors knocking on the ML door. Hopefuls sure, but not sure things.

 

As to the question trade value. I've never believed it was really gone. It's more biding time seeing how he performs while more of his contract expires. He's had 3 straight seasons of questioning his ability. Should he have another 2015 like season and he's heading that way and then some, owners will come asking what they must give up for Braun.

 

Well, when the AAA club is in Colorado Springs, pitchers are likely to end up feeling like baby seals more often than not. A better AAA location would be nice.

 

I'm inclined to give any pitcher in Colorado Springs a mulligan of sorts.

[MrTPlush]

It honestly will only take one team to get a good return...don't even need a bidding war. Last time I checked there is not much obvious offensive players that are going to be available this summer. Ryan Braun would likely be, by a large margin, the best bat available. .300 hitters with 40 homer power don't exactly grow on trees.

 

If you want Braun to stay you might want to hope for some injuries to start popping up.

[billymac]

He'll be traded before Maverick is called up so Mav can wear #8

[Boomer5]

Does anyone think Braun being on this team means an extra $200,000 in revenue vs him not on the team? Because that's his contract in 81 home games.

 

There is no reason in the world to not trade Braun now if another team offers a reasonable prospect package.

[MrTPlush]

I'll take 140 games of Braun over what most of the league has to offer. Much like the NBA is finding out, playing every game is probably not a good idea anyways.

 

It kind of sounds bad when the Brewers talk about it, but how many games does a player typically play anyway? 150-155? So maybe 10-15 games less? That really isn't a big deal.

[pacopete4]

I'll take 140 games of Braun over what most of the league has to offer. Much like the NBA is finding out, playing every game is probably not a good idea anyways.

 

It kind of sounds bad when the Brewers talk about it, but how many games does a player typically play anyway? 150-155? So maybe 10-15 games less? That really isn't a big deal.

 

 

I wish I could figure that out but I think it would be in the 140's. Players don't play everyday anymore.

[MrTPlush]

I'll take 140 games of Braun over what most of the league has to offer. Much like the NBA is finding out, playing every game is probably not a good idea anyways.

 

It kind of sounds bad when the Brewers talk about it, but how many games does a player typically play anyway? 150-155? So maybe 10-15 games less? That really isn't a big deal.

 

 

I wish I could figure that out but I think it would be in the 140's. Players don't play everyday anymore.

 

Exactly 140 games that are mostly 100% is not bad at all. However, 140 games like Ryan Braun played in 2015 where at times it felt like he was at 25% is not all that great.

[danzig6767]

Braun's trade value to other clubs is also directly tied to how much of Braun's contract the Brewers would be willing to take on. If the Brewers were willing to pay 80%-90% of the remainder of the contract, I imagine there would be teams jumping through Stearns' window trying to get a deal done if Braun keeps this up for another month or two.

 

If the Brewers aren't willing to kick in much, or just pay the deferrals, probably not so much.

So you would like to see Attanasio eat 80-90 million dollars for a still productive player?

 

This is Ryan Braun, not Ryan Howard after he tore his Achilles and still owed over 100 million. With baseball revenues soaring via local and national TV rights, 20 million per for a productive hitter in a league lacking them isn't some hideous amount which would make his contract like it came with a bout of herpes.

 

Sure, in any type of trade involving a veteran owed a lot of money, if a team eats some or a lot of the contract, that often will increase the talent coming back in return. Asking Attanasio though to eat 80-90 million for what is still a productive player, the return should be enormous. That's a huge amount of cash.

[And That]

So you would like to see Attanasio eat 80-90 million dollars for a still productive player?

 

I'm not advocating for or against it, that's a financial decision for the Brewers to weigh. Like I said, people would be beating down the Brewers' door if they put it out there that they were willing to eat that much money to move Braun. But would those offers be worth it? Who knows.