Braun trade value now

[igor67]

I'm pretty sure PEDs are now almost completely irrelevant to trade value. It looks more like the limited number of teams he can be dealt too and potentially concerns about how healthy he might stay would make teams a little less likely to pay a fair price for a difference maker. And at the moment he does bring a lot of value to the team playing the game. It is possible in the near future one might start to think his presence in the OF is taking up playing time for someone else, but it's not too hard to see having him anchoring the line-up makes it a little easier for other young guys to develop and for the team to be watchable.

[bill hAll Star]

I've been one drumming up that Braun actually has value since last year, but I will say that the issue is the idea of a trade vs. signing.

 

I'm not sure that anyone with the value of a Braun will be a free agent or also available via trade in 2017 or 2018, but here's the issue:

 

Say I'm a team looking for an OF...I can sign Reddick on a "fair" contract at 4 years, $80 million, or I can acquire Braun at a similar fair contract. Even though one could argue that Braun is a slightly superior player, would you, as the Dodgers or Red Sox or whomever want to just pay the money, or would you want to give up 2 good prospects AND pay the money? Sure, the Brewers can meet these teams halfway and maybe pay a year of salary to get back a prospect or two, but that is where I worry that the market will stall, even though I think Braun is a very worthy player of his contract.

[Boomer5]

If a team signs a OF to a contact like Braun's, they are likely giving up a draft pick. So the only way a deal for Braun makes sense is immediate need and the cost being at or less than a mid to late first round pick.

[pacopete4]

Build around Braun. The MLB will never appreciate him as much as if he is here when we win a World Series in a couple years.

[MrTPlush]

If I get a solid offer for Ryan Braun I am taking it. We likely still have two non competitive seasons left in the tank. I am not building around a 34 year old injury prone Ryan Braun who will have two years left on his contract at that point. Take the prospects and pocket that money saved. He is just too big of a risk and we don't need to be wasting $20mil a year for Ryan Braun if he declines.

 

Besides I would rather save some money and invest it into a position of need in a few years. If we have any plans of competing our outfield prospects will have to produce. That is where all our future offensive firepower is. If they flop nothing will matter in all honestly. Free up the outfield spot for someone else and then sign someone at a black hole position.

 

Only way I'd want to keep Braun is if he can play average 1st base. If not I just don't see the reason to keep him around. By 2019 he might be a 3 WAR player and that just isn't good enough. We have prospects that can provide half that on defense alone for league minimum. We would save money and grab valuable prospects. Win-win.

 

Don't get me wrong Ryan Braun is amazing and I'd be sad to see him go. I doubt I will ever see a better player on this team in my life time and I am not old. However building the best team for the future it is an easy choice: Trade Braun if a decent offer presents itself.

[splitterpfj]

The big issue with dealing Braun is his no-trade. He always lists teams out west, and the Marlins, as the places he'd go without his ok. Unless he'd waive that at some point, that presents a problem.

 

If you're going to deal Braun because you're afraid his value will decline as he ages, you need to get that done sooner than later, which means you need a trade partner who is contending, and has a solid farm system to deal from - since dealing Braun for scraps would be ridiculous.

 

Take a look at the farm systems of the Giants, Angels, Diamondbacks, and Marlins right now - that's not pretty. San Diego is rebuilding at the moment, so a deal for Braun doesn't seem to fit there either.

 

That leaves the Dodgers - who could certainly use Braun, and who have the sort of farm system that could easily match up for a deal, but to this point anyway, they've stayed away from Braun.

 

Finding the deal that works is going to be a bigger issue than whether or not any of us would deal him.

[MrTPlush]

I think we would be hard pressed to find him willing to waive it this offseason with a new baby. Honestly I don't like our odds unless a team he can't block a trade to comes after him or if he has another stellar year and we could more easily convince him after the 2017 season to waive the no trade clause.

 

The Braunwagon can probably sleep well at night.

[LouisEly]

Say I'm a team looking for an OF...I can sign Reddick on a "fair" contract at 4 years, $80 million, or I can acquire Braun at a similar fair contract. Even though one could argue that Braun is a slightly superior player, would you, as the Dodgers or Red Sox or whomever want to just pay the money, or would you want to give up 2 good prospects AND pay the money? Sure, the Brewers can meet these teams halfway and maybe pay a year of salary to get back a prospect or two, but that is where I worry that the market will stall, even though I think Braun is a very worthy player of his contract.

According to B-R, Reddick has a career WAR of 17.8 with 5.05 years of service time, which comes to be 3.52 WAR/year. Braun has a career WAR of 44.3 over 8.13 years of service time, or 5.44 WAR/year. If we want to look at just the last two years, Braun has a WAR of 8.1 and Reddick has a WAR of 5.4.

 

Braun is more than slightly superior to Reddick. He's almost worth two more wins per year than Reddick, and I've seen calculations that estimate one WAR to be worth on average $7-8M in salary. Even if it is more like $5M, Braun, in theory, should be worth at least $8-10M/year more on the open market than Reddick.

 

If Reddick can be had for 4/$80, then he is either grossly overpaid or Braun is an incredible bargain. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle, leaning towards Braun being a bargain.

[MKE81]

Awhile back this spring we had a straight up Braun for Bundy thread. Imagine that now......

Not difficult to imagine given this board. I remember getting laughed at before the season for saying Braun was much better across the board than Alex Gordon (outside of defense). Talent is talent regardless of whatever fantasy people choose to drum up to align with their thoughts. I've also consistently said you don't trade Braun at all unless you get an offer you can't refuse. If that doesn't happen he retires a Brewer as his athleticism will allow him to play LF during that span. But he could always transition to 1b at end of career since never had an issue picking it, just couldn't throw it accurately.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think we would be hard pressed to find him willing to waive it this offseason with a new baby. Honestly I don't like our odds unless a team he can't block a trade to comes after him or if he has another stellar year and we could more easily convince him after the 2017 season to waive the no trade clause.

 

The Braunwagon can probably sleep well at night.

 

Since he doesn't live in Milwaukee and lives on the west coast I'm sure he'd love to be traded there. Probably even more so now with two kids there.

[homer]

Awhile back this spring we had a straight up Braun for Bundy thread. Imagine that now......

Not difficult to imagine given this board.

 

I have the morning off and some time on my hands so I went back and read through that Bundy thread. Literally two people (on an 8-9 page thread) suggested Braun for Bundy and neither proposed deal was a straight one for one. Vast majority of people were opposed to the deal. But you guys keep on keepin' on...

[JosephC]

I'd deal him at first opportunity and the main reason why is health. Has back and hand/thumb issues. Is on pace to play in 134 games this year, played in 140 last year and 135 the year before that. The number of games missed is likely to get larger. The Brewers will not be playoff team next year and will probably be a long-shot the season after that. Will he still be an .870+ OPS player in 2019, his age 35 season? Just as likely that he will be a average at best left field/first baseman bat that's missing 40 games per season and the team is sinking a considerable amount of money in him.

 

Try and sell-high this off-season if at all possible.

[MrTPlush]

I think we would be hard pressed to find him willing to waive it this offseason with a new baby. Honestly I don't like our odds unless a team he can't block a trade to comes after him or if he has another stellar year and we could more easily convince him after the 2017 season to waive the no trade clause.

 

The Braunwagon can probably sleep well at night.

 

Since he doesn't live in Milwaukee and lives on the west coast I'm sure he'd love to be traded there. Probably even more so now with two kids there.

 

Well I mean since those teams aren't on his no trade list that really wouldn't make him likely to wave his no trade clause because he wouldn't need to do it.

[bill hAll Star]

Say I'm a team looking for an OF...I can sign Reddick on a "fair" contract at 4 years, $80 million, or I can acquire Braun at a similar fair contract. Even though one could argue that Braun is a slightly superior player, would you, as the Dodgers or Red Sox or whomever want to just pay the money, or would you want to give up 2 good prospects AND pay the money? Sure, the Brewers can meet these teams halfway and maybe pay a year of salary to get back a prospect or two, but that is where I worry that the market will stall, even though I think Braun is a very worthy player of his contract.

According to B-R, Reddick has a career WAR of 17.8 with 5.05 years of service time, which comes to be 3.52 WAR/year. Braun has a career WAR of 44.3 over 8.13 years of service time, or 5.44 WAR/year. If we want to look at just the last two years, Braun has a WAR of 8.1 and Reddick has a WAR of 5.4.

 

Braun is more than slightly superior to Reddick. He's almost worth two more wins per year than Reddick, and I've seen calculations that estimate one WAR to be worth on average $7-8M in salary. Even if it is more like $5M, Braun, in theory, should be worth at least $8-10M/year more on the open market than Reddick.

 

If Reddick can be had for 4/$80, then he is either grossly overpaid or Braun is an incredible bargain. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle, leaning towards Braun being a bargain.

 

It's kind of impossible to just throw a random name out there for "similar" player so I apologize. I'm just going to start saying "player A" when I make examples. I always make the mistake of actually using a name, exposing the post to be nitpicked if a player isn't exactly similar.

 

Just imagine the pool of OFs that are free agents instead...there are some similarly valued, some slightly lower value.

 

Regardless, there are maybe 10 OFs that you can sign to start without giving up a prospect and possibly for less money. Yeah, you may have to give up a draft pick to get them, but you may get one on the other end.

[Point Beer Is Best]

When do Braun's 10/5 rights vest? Is it this offseason, next offseason, or sometime else? Because his no-trade clause becomes moot when he essentially earns the right to block any deal.

[brewcrewdue80]

If a team signs a OF to a contact like Braun's, they are likely giving up a draft pick. So the only way a deal for Braun makes sense is immediate need and the cost being at or less than a mid to late first round pick.

 

Only Reddick doesn't have the potential for a QO as he was traded within the above example idea. 4/80mil to get him or that for Braun plus prospects.

 

And again for some reference, Cespedes was paid 27.5mil by the Mets with 47mil the next 2 seasons if he doesn't opt out on his contract....which he may look at the market and say I can do better than 23.5mil the next 2 seasons. Braun has double Cespedes' WAR on the season. But he was worth over 2WAR less last season which is what Braun is ahead by this season. Either way, you comp him to Cespedes and understand one is 5million less per season and a higher floor type of bat with Braun. But costs prospects. Or, you go after the 5million more a season Cespedes who's floor is a lot lower than Braun's but less in age so regression is less plausible. As well as HR power potential creating a higher ceiling than Braun. Doesn't cost prospects. Likely, a QO pick though. Which a team in the top 10 it would cost just a 2nd pick. Atlanta, Angels, DBacks, 1 of Rockies or Phillies He'd fit in fairly nicely for a 2nd round choice. Though Atl at #1 seems a reach, but the other 4 I'd consider the potential.

[1992casey]

When do Braun's 10/5 rights vest? Is it this offseason, next offseason, or sometime else? Because his no-trade clause becomes moot when he essentially earns the right to block any deal.

Unless there's something I'm missing, I'd guess that it be at about the anniversary of his callup, which would be just before June of next season.

[SandyTolan]

When do Braun's 10/5 rights vest? Is it this offseason, next offseason, or sometime else? Because his no-trade clause becomes moot when he essentially earns the right to block any deal.

 

If 10/5 status means literally the 10th anniversary of Braun's debut, which I think it does, that means the Brewers would have until next May 24th to trade him to one of the teams on his no-trade clause without his permission. Which means of course that they could do something over the winter, if they found the right match. Though as others have pointed out, given the other issues, it would seem Dodgers or no one.

[igor67]

The FA comparison is very useful because as a potential trade target he makes more sense as an offseason then he ever has as a deadline guy. So it is definitely a limited pool, but given the higher levels of production a team might very well prioritize that especially if they are paying less per year then the open market. Similarly a team that comes in second on a FA bid might be very motivated.

[LouisEly]

If a team signs a OF to a contact like Braun's, they are likely giving up a draft pick. So the only way a deal for Braun makes sense is immediate need and the cost being at or less than a mid to late first round pick.

 

Only Reddick doesn't have the potential for a QO as he was traded within the above example idea. 4/80mil to get him or that for Braun plus prospects.

 

And again for some reference, Cespedes was paid 27.5mil by the Mets with 47mil the next 2 seasons if he doesn't opt out on his contract....which he may look at the market and say I can do better than 23.5mil the next 2 seasons. Braun has double Cespedes' WAR on the season. But he was worth over 2WAR less last season which is what Braun is ahead by this season. Either way, you comp him to Cespedes and understand one is 5million less per season and a higher floor type of bat with Braun. But costs prospects. Or, you go after the 5million more a season Cespedes who's floor is a lot lower than Braun's but less in age so regression is less plausible. As well as HR power potential creating a higher ceiling than Braun. Doesn't cost prospects. Likely, a QO pick though. Which a team in the top 10 it would cost just a 2nd pick. Atlanta, Angels, DBacks, 1 of Rockies or Phillies He'd fit in fairly nicely for a 2nd round choice. Though Atl at #1 seems a reach, but the other 4 I'd consider the potential.

The problem with free agents is that there is no guarantee that they will sign with you. There can be 29 other teams competing for that player's service; in reality more like a dozen, but you have no visibility as to what those other 11 teams are offering. Good agents know how to play the game, and desperate egotistical owners have a tendency to overpay.

 

If you put all your eggs in the free agent basket thinking you can avoid giving up prospects - and then Mike Ilitch comes along and gives Justin Upton $132.8M (almost half of the WAR Braun has put up in roughly the same service time) - so much for that plan of avoiding giving up more than a draft pick, you just lost out. This is my other point - no one even close to Braun's productivity can be signed for anywhere near 4/$76M. Maybe you can get someone for close to the same AAV, but you'll have to take on the risk of a lot more than 4 years and sign that player to age 38/39.

 

The Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, and Angels among other teams have a lot of money coming off the books over the next two years and the Braves have already shed most of their payroll. Good luck outbidding them.

 

The reason that examples are picked apart is because often the examples aren't realistic or comparable.

[statman0007]

It seems like most people agree Braun could bring an elite prospect or salary relief but not both given age, injury, and PED history. I wonder if packaging him with one of our elite CF prospects could then get us both an elite prospect (at a position we have less depth at) along with the salary relief. Something like Braun and Phillips/Brinson/Clark/Ray for Urias?

[brewcrewdue80]

It seems like most people agree Braun could bring an elite prospect or salary relief but not both given age, injury, and PED history. I wonder if packaging him with one of our elite CF prospects could then get us both an elite prospect (at a position we have less depth at) along with the salary relief. Something like Braun and Phillips/Brinson/Clark/Ray for Urias?

 

No, not at all. Milwaukee has 0 use of any Salary Relief. Elite prospect return only. The Brewers are a team with only 32.5mil committed next season and 20mil and less beyond (Braun's contract) It's a clean slate in payroll. Yes guys are and will be hitting Arb process, but you can move on from the ones you don't want or non-tender if there's better to put out there. Maldonado/Peralta/Kirk N./Gennett/Chase Anderson/Carter and Carlos Torres.

 

Braun is producing at a high rate. Talking about money is something I see drummed up by the media types. Because, let's face it, in their minds multiple teams could and should have traded for him. Why hasn't it happened yet? Well, we'll just say it's because of money. And suddenly it's, Brewers have to kick in money to get any kind of decent return for Braun.

 

What's going on is Stearns is asking a high price or simply, being smart and knowing that right now, Braun is lightyears ahead of current Brewers as a #3 batter. At the Plate, no one else presents the ability anywhere near what Braun presents. Until that player emerges from the prospects ranks or via a Braun trade, He's keeping Braun. For now, Braun can be and see through to the rebuild and be a part of that Brewers' team. That is the general consensus. You have a veteran of 9+years and his Slash lines are all above what was a HOF type of career being built up. I mean there are whispers of teams asking about Mike Trout and he's rearing to be paid 34mil+ after 2017. There isn't even an inkling of that salary being any kind of burden. His triple slash line is below Braun's BA, and Slg. with only the OB being ahead of Braun's. What's to be a King's Ransom to get Trout is to be a Salary dump by the Brewers for Braun? Remember Jay Bruce and his career high Big Bat of .875OPS? 13mil owed next season on option and Below average Defense for his career? It's at .557OPS with his new NYM team. Teams are going to look at what Lucroy has done and what Braun has done and just the consistency brought and either pony up to Stearns' demands or watch Braun continue putting up HOF type numbers for his age when the Brewers face them.

[adambr2]

Well, you can have both. Just because we don't NEED salary relief in a Braun trade doesn't mean you don't take it if you can get it. Nothing wrong with a deal which gets you a guy like Urias AND salary relief, although I probably wouldn't be willing to send Ray or Brinson.

 

But I do think we need to remain open to all options. That includes trading prospects when the opportunity is right, like we did for Villar.

[markedman5]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/rosenthals-latest-dodgers-brewers-braun-puig-d-backs.html

 

Braun has cleared waivers

[reillymcshane]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/rosenthals-latest-dodgers-brewers-braun-puig-d-backs.html

 

Braun has cleared waivers

I wasn't sure he would clear waivers. If I had put money on it, I would have bet someone would put in a claim. But I guess not.

 

Some have said if Braun was a free agent he'd get more than the $4-years/$76M he's owed (not to mention $15M is deferred) - but this show's there's skepticism about Ryan. Age and health are probably the biggest factors, but that no one claimed him demonstrates team's are being cautious.