Braun trade value now

[A Swing and A Drive]

Question for Brewers fans???

 

Would you have traded Ryan Braun to the Dodgers like the Padres did with Kemp just for salary relief?

 

If Braun's production tails off, not only will we be saddled with his contract like the Reds have been with Brandon Phillips, but we also won't get anything in return for him.

[Boomer5]

Question for Brewers fans???

 

Would you have traded Ryan Braun to the Dodgers like the Padres did with Kemp just for salary relief?

 

If Braun's production tails off, not only will we be saddled with his contract like the Reds have been with Brandon Phillips, but we also won't get anything in return for him.

 

No, he is worth more than salary relief and his contract isn't that bad. With the Brewer's payroll they can easily handle his contract since they arent trying to contend and don't need to make moves for some expensive players.

[brewcrewdue80]

Question for Brewers fans???

 

Would you have traded Ryan Braun to the Dodgers like the Padres did with Kemp just for salary relief?

 

If Braun's production tails off, not only will we be saddled with his contract like the Reds have been with Brandon Phillips, but we also won't get anything in return for him.

 

Braun>Phillips

a tail off from Braun is Phillips best season. Huge mistake on the Reds Part to not see the rise of the Middle Infield bats and quality now around the infield(except 1b) OF is becoming the 2b/SS/3b of 5years ago. lacking power and .800+OPS ability.

[MrTPlush]

Question for Brewers fans???

 

Would you have traded Ryan Braun to the Dodgers like the Padres did with Kemp just for salary relief?

 

If Braun's production tails off, not only will we be saddled with his contract like the Reds have been with Brandon Phillips, but we also won't get anything in return for him.

 

No, he is worth more than salary relief and his contract isn't that bad. With the Brewer's payroll they can easily handle his contract since they arent trying to contend and don't need to make moves for some expensive players.

 

Well obviously not as that is all we have been offered.

[Point Beer Is Best]

It sounds like the Braves wanted to do with us what they did with Kemp, but those are very different circumstances. Braun is much more valuable than Kemp, and I don't think we would have taken back the bad contract (and even worse person) they sent to SD who was then DFA'd. We don't want to just let Braun go for nothing because we have substantial payroll flexibility as it stands right now through the end of his deal where we would eat significant dollars if we got back quality players in return. Basically 100% the opposite of what the Braves did to the D-Backs (taking on a bad contract PLUS a quality prospect so AZ could dump salary).

[adambr2]

I'm curious, does Braun's 65 game suspension time count toward the accumulation of his 10/5 rights? Anyone know? If so, he should acquire 10/5 in late May next year. If not, it wouldn't be until around the trade deadline next year.

[LouisEly]

Question for Brewers fans???

 

Would you have traded Ryan Braun to the Dodgers like the Padres did with Kemp just for salary relief?

 

If Braun's production tails off, not only will we be saddled with his contract like the Reds have been with Brandon Phillips, but we also won't get anything in return for him.

I think you know my answer.

 

Braun is top-25 in all of baseball in OPS. You won't be able to get that in free agency for 4/$80M, and those guys rarely become available anyway.

[brewerfan82]

From a baseball standpoint, there is zero reason to move Braun in a salary dump move. His contract has zero effect on constructing the team for the foreseeable future, so there is no baseball reason to make that move unless it brings back legitimate talent.

 

From an owner standpoint, maybe, but I think even then there is probably some financial reasons to keep your best player and face of your franchise. It's not worth moving him just to get rid of the contract.

[trwi7]

Question for Brewers fans???

 

Would you have traded Ryan Braun to the Dodgers like the Padres did with Kemp just for salary relief?

 

If Braun's production tails off, not only will we be saddled with his contract like the Reds have been with Brandon Phillips, but we also won't get anything in return for him.

 

No. I would be willing to eat some salary to get better prospects though. Obviously it's not my money though.

[JohnBriggs12]

Question for Brewers fans???

 

Would you have traded Ryan Braun to the Dodgers like the Padres did with Kemp just for salary relief?

 

If Braun's production tails off, not only will we be saddled with his contract like the Reds have been with Brandon Phillips, but we also won't get anything in return for him.

 

No. I would be willing to eat some salary to get better prospects though. Obviously it's not my money though.

 

If Braun stays reasonably healthy, they will have had the benefit of 15 years of a guy who if not for PEDs is a Hall of Famer. That outweighs any return they'd get by dealing him. So he retires as a Brewer? When he does, that will free up a lot of salary.

 

Kemp comparison is laughable. Kemp's been a slightly below average OF 3 of the last 4 seasons.

[A Swing and A Drive]

At some point in the next few years if Ryan Braun remains a Brewer, he will be blocking the development of our future outfielders.

 

Since Steans is collecting toolsy centerfielders without much power at an alarming rate, they will have to play somewhere.

 

Ranking and age of Brewers OF prospects

MLB Domingo Santana

Minors

1. OF Lewis Brinson, Age 22

2. OF Corey Ray, Age 21

3. OF Trent Clark, Age 19

4. OF Brett Phillips, Age 22

5. OF Monte Harrison, Age 20

6. OF Demi Orimoloye, Age 19

7. OF Clint Coulter, Age 23

8. OF Tyrone Taylor, Age 22

9. OF Michael Reed, Age 23

10. OF Kyle Wren, Age 25

 

Interesting....is there anyone on this list that can't play CF besides Clint Coulter?

 

IMO, the Brewers will need to do one of two things:

 

A. Trade Carter by end of next season and move Braun to 1B.

B. Trade Braun and his contract as soon as you can get something of value in return.

 

Thoughts?

[pacopete4]

Braun needs a full offseason to just work his butt off at 1B if they want him to move.

 

Really next season could be looking at:

 

Santana LF

Brinson CF

Phillips RF

[3and2Fastball]

A. Trade Carter by end of next season and move Braun to 1B.

B. Trade Braun and his contract as soon as you can get something of value in return.

 

Thoughts?

 

Despite the HR's, Carter and his 107 OPS+ is completely expendable once the Brewers are ready to contend. I would say you are correct, and "both" is the most likely scenario. I fully expect neither Braun or Carter on the roster the next time the Brewers take the field in a playoff game

[tmwiese55]

While I obviously the potential future logjam. As of now the other two starting OFs are Niewenhies and Perez so two spots wide open to be had by young guys. These minor leaguers actually have to make it to the bigs first. Probably don't need to worry about this until after the 2017 season. You go in next year with Santana and Braun at the corners and the CF spot open to whatever young guy earns it, likely Phillips or Brinson. Some time next year Braun could get moved or Carter is gone after 2017 anyway, I think, so that frees up another spot.

 

That said, you'd think they'll at least ask Braun to start some preliminary work at 1B to see how it goes. with all his injuries I actually think OF is probably less risky for him, there's more running but little bending/stretching/crouching. Maybe Santana could move easier than Braun, probably have them both start putting some time in on it and see who clicks better.

[LouisEly]

Every one of those ten, with the possible exception of #10 and #9, has a long ways to go before they will ever be a major league ballplayer, and #10 and #9 profile as reserves. I'm not going to worry about this until it actually happens. Half of the players on that list I am pretty sure will never make the majors or won't until Braun is in the last year of his deal.

[JackNicholson1974]

How in the heck can people pencil Brinson and Phillips into the outfiled next year? The two of them arent doing that well in AA and are both very young. At the earliest they may get called up in May of 2018.

[MrTPlush]

How in the heck can people pencil Brinson and Phillips into the outfiled next year? The two of them arent doing that well in AA and are both very young. At the earliest they may get called up in May of 2018.

 

Brinson is going to AAA right now so he could quite easily be up half way through the season. Phillips could get the call, but he needs to play better.

[tmwiese55]

Right, when I heard Brinson is going right to AAA it made me think they hope he's up to bigs some time next year. Assuming a Phillips promotion to AAA by end of this year or early next puts him on the cusp too. Based on their somewhat quick promotion of Arcia management might prefer letting young guys play in the bigs vs trotting out the Floreses of the world for much longer. And as fans I think we'd all prefer that too.

[TURBO]

Every one of those ten, with the possible exception of #10 and #9, has a long ways to go before they will ever be a major league ballplayer, and #10 and #9 profile as reserves. I'm not going to worry about this until it actually happens. Half of the players on that list I am pretty sure will never make the majors or won't until Braun is in the last year of his deal.

 

I'm not so sure #5, 7 and 8 will ever be a producing member of any future Brewers team either to be honest...

[UMBrewer]

The way I see it, the Tigers, the Dodgers and the Nationals are now the main suitors for Braun, and that's only if he passes waivers.

 

But when he is placed on waivers, and if one of these teams claim him, I think he currently has a negative value of about $8 million or so. The extreme case would be that he has about $18 million in surplus value.

 

In each case, the Brewers have to chip in a bit to cover the salary he is still owed if traded.

 

Ive said before that I felt the team would have to pay about $30 million of his remaining salary to get anything worthwhile back in return. They could work it to pay his remaining 2016 salary, pay the buyout in 2021 and then just be left with $5 million per year for the rest of the contract until 2020.

 

From the Nationals, Erick Fedde would be a nice return in addition to a throw in player.

 

From the Dodgers I think Willie Calhoun and Trevor Oaks would be a good return.

 

From the Tigers I would want Steven Moya and then one of either Jeff Farrell or Paul Voelker.

 

Just all depends on how those teams value Braun and whether they would be willing to take on $15 million in salary for a few years. He will probably produce enough to make it a break even contract for the receiving team. Just hope that someone who actually wants him is the team that claims him.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Assuming Braun plays at least 50 of the last 58 games and that his production is roughly the same as it has been so far this year, how much salary would the Brewers need to assume to make him a very attractive trade asset this winter? By attractive I am thinking along the lines of one Top 100 prospect and 2 other good prospects that would land on the Brewers Top 30 list (similar to Indians offer for Lucroy)

 

Assuming the '21 option does not need to be picked up he is owed $78 (including the '21 buyout) for 2017-2020 (Age 33-36 yrs.) or $19.5/yr. At what average yearly salary would it be attractive to other teams? $15/yr (meaning the Brewers kick in $18 million)? Or would it need to be lower than that?

[Devinep]

I'm not sure is read too much into Brinson playing at AAA. My guess is that they want both him and Phillips in CF and that's obviously hard tondo on the same team

[LouisEly]

Folks, keep in mind that Justin Upton signed for 6/$132M this past off-season. Yes, he is younger than Braun but has been nowhere near as productive (.347 OBP, .815 OPS career for Upton vs. .368 OBP/.910 career OPS for Braun). Over 10 seasons Upton has generated ~25 WAR according to B-R, or about 2.5/year. Braun has accumulated ~43 WAR over the same 10 seasons, or 4.3/year. I don't even need to go into the comparison for this year (Braun 3.3 WAR, Upton 0.4 WAR). (WAR is as much of an accumulation stat as a performance stat, so Braun's missed playing time with injuries factors into WAR.)

 

The market has established that the market rate for lesser players in free agency is 6/$132M. You are not going to get anywhere near 4/$80M for a player of Braun's caliber. Braun is a bargain.

[logan82]

At some point in the next few years if Ryan Braun remains a Brewer, he will be blocking the development of our future outfielders.

 

Since Steans is collecting toolsy centerfielders without much power at an alarming rate, they will have to play somewhere.

 

Ranking and age of Brewers OF prospects

MLB Domingo Santana

Minors

1. OF Lewis Brinson, Age 22

2. OF Corey Ray, Age 21

3. OF Trent Clark, Age 19

4. OF Brett Phillips, Age 22

5. OF Monte Harrison, Age 20

6. OF Demi Orimoloye, Age 19

7. OF Clint Coulter, Age 23

8. OF Tyrone Taylor, Age 22

9. OF Michael Reed, Age 23

10. OF Kyle Wren, Age 25

 

Interesting....is there anyone on this list that can't play CF besides Clint Coulter?

 

IMO, the Brewers will need to do one of two things:

 

A. Trade Carter by end of next season and move Braun to 1B.

B. Trade Braun and his contract as soon as you can get something of value in return.

 

Thoughts?

No to Bran at 1B. He sucks at fielding ground balls. All the bending and reaching would not be great for his core muscles either which he has had many many issues with.

[tmwiese55]

The more I think about the more I think Santana would be better to move to 1B when another OF spot is needed, assuming Santana is doing well of course. I didn't think he was anything better than mediocre out there this year. And like logan just said I think it's safer to have Braun in OF. Who knows, maybe the DH will be in after 2017 or 2018 though for Braun