Braun trade value now

[paul253]

It's about what he is doing now

 

And what he's doing now is ranking in the top 15 in the NL in average, OBP and slugging. That's pretty good. Add that to what Lucroy is doing, despite "only" being a 1.5 year rental, unless of course they resign him, and that's a ton of value, especially if you're in a win now mode which the Mets are. I get that Matz is a good young pitcher but unfortunately if you want two players playing at an all star level you have to give something up. I don't think they have the quantity of prospects which means they'd need to give up quality. I know it's all a moot point since it'll never happen but i think if the Brewers offered Braun and Lucroy for Steven Matz the Mets would be fools to turn it down.

[MrTPlush]

Yawn. Sounds like we're giving them away for two bags of baseballs because nobody likes Braun, Lucroy can only be controlled for 1.5 years (with no chance of signing him to an extension), they're only playing at All-Star levels, again.

 

I mean really if we package those two guys together for Matz, we're only getting a 5.5 year rental....

 

Why because I mentioned some negatives? Am I not allowed to mention negative things related to them? Braun/Lucroy are great players and great trade pieces. That being said neither is incredible when it comes to trade value. Neither is a mega star locked up for years on a cheap deal...neither is a total game changer(Trout/Harper/etc).

 

Now don't take this as I think we are going to get a boring return. I think Lucroy will be traded and nab us a prospect that will instantly be #2 in our system. Regarding Braun if he can stay healthy, mash, and we pick up enough money I think he can bring back a package headlined by a borderline Top 50 prospect if a team is desperate to get a big bat.

 

All I am trying to get at is there are some negatives and things that limit the returns we can demand. I feel some think just because Lucroy is a top catcher and arguably the best trade chip this summer that we are going to walk away with this insane haul. Then you have the same with Braun where lots just look at his stat line and starts expecting the moon...not that simple.

[MrTPlush]

I don't think any team would be "fools" if they opted not to trade one of their best players and biggest contributors. Addition by subtraction which in 1.5 years would be more subtraction than addition once Lucroy is gone. Yes it would probably make them better for 1.5 years(not a for sure thing), but honestly by how much?

 

That would be a win now move and honestly with that pitching staff they are built more for the long run not short term. I don't think Matz is expendable enough to make such a move.

[brewcrewdue80]

So, taking Pujols' decline makes Braun a most likely decline vs not. Pujols also had a major Foot issue. Maybe that is what lead to his sudden decline. An injury that affects you in a drastic way leads to sudden decline. Rickie Weeks decline after his injury drastically.

 

 

I don't think any team would be "fools" if they opted not to trade one of their best players and biggest contributors. Addition by subtraction which in 1.5 years would be more subtraction than addition once Lucroy is gone. Yes it would probably make them better for 1.5 years(not a for sure thing), but honestly by how much?

 

That would be a win now move and honestly with that pitching staff they are built more for the long run not short term. I don't think Matz is expendable enough to make such a move.

 

They do have a number of guys as FAs after this season. Harvey has 2years team control remaining with Arb and that will likely come to 8mil and 13mil without returning to Ace level. He does and you're talking 10mil and 18million.

 

They do have Degrom and Syndergaard through 2020 so while I can agree they do have the long haul portion for pitching to keep Matz, What they don't have is Granderson, Walker, and Duda in their batting lineup. Who are they replacing them with? David Wright is another season older and who knows how long he even remains playing with his plights. Cespedes could opt out of his contract I believe after this season. You're literally staring at an offense headlined by Travis Darnaud and Michael Conforto. Maybe Nimmo joins the foray. But w/o Cespedes and Duda that outlook is worse than it is now. Syndergaard/Degrom/ and Matz will have to throw 10inning shutouts to maybe win some games. At some point you gotta field a true #3 batter to start your offense.

 

To put it this way. Aaron Hill would be the 2nd highest WAR if on the Mets for Position players. They have as many Relief Pitchers 4 as they do Position players for the Mets top 12 WAR. The one with just 19IP. to beat out all but Cespedes or Asdrubal Cabrera.

 

Cespedes will up and leave after this season and leave the Mets completely hanging with Walker leaving. The team needs a Braun bat far more than they need a Matz arm. But go ahead continue being the #2 Pitching team while being the #28 scoring runs team and see how far that gets you.

[splitterpfj]

Jon Heyman suggests Braun and cash to the Giants for Tyler Beede and Mac Williamson.

 

Heyman points out, the Giants are over the luxury tax threshold, meaning, they will pay a 33% tax on additional dollars - so there's NO WAY the Brewers send Braun to SF without kicking in some real money.

 

Beede is a real prospect, a young pitcher with the "stuff" to be a well above average MLB starter - the problem - he lacks command. While Beede has the potential to fill a rotation spot nicely for several years, there is a real chance he becomes a relief pitcher, it will come down to the command issue - he gets better there, or he does not.

 

Williamson is an outfielder who was a pitcher in his past. His career has been stalled in the past by arm injuries, so he's getting on in years for a prospect - he'll be 26 next month. His arm is still his best tool, followed by his above average power.

 

Honestly, I have no problem with the Brewers getting Beede in a deal, but Williamson doesn't move me, and if you have to kick in millions to get it done, I'd say the time is not right to move Braun - at least not to the Giants.

[QuevedosTongue]

Red Sox are down another LF, I would think the time is ripe for them to trade for Braun. Unless they are going with Ryan LaMarre in LF. I can't imagine.

[MrTPlush]

Tyler Beede? Eh I feel like your scouting staff would really have to love him to make that trade. Unless you think you can make him harness that control, no thanks. I think that would be a pretty weak deal for the Brewers and I don't know what "real money means". How much do we have to kick in.

 

I would probably pass on that deal.

[reillymcshane]

Jon Heyman suggests Braun and cash to the Giants for Tyler Beede and Mac Williamson.

 

Heyman points out, the Giants are over the luxury tax threshold, meaning, they will pay a 33% tax on additional dollars - so there's NO WAY the Brewers send Braun to SF without kicking in some real money.

 

Beede is a real prospect, a young pitcher with the "stuff" to be a well above average MLB starter - the problem - he lacks command. While Beede has the potential to fill a rotation spot nicely for several years, there is a real chance he becomes a relief pitcher, it will come down to the command issue - he gets better there, or he does not.

 

Williamson is an outfielder who was a pitcher in his past. His career has been stalled in the past by arm injuries, so he's getting on in years for a prospect - he'll be 26 next month. His arm is still his best tool, followed by his above average power.

 

Honestly, I have no problem with the Brewers getting Beede in a deal, but Williamson doesn't move me, and if you have to kick in millions to get it done, I'd say the time is not right to move Braun - at least not to the Giants.

Beede is okay, but he's nothing particularly special. I'm with you on not doing the trade - I mean why get rid of a special bat for an average prospect. And we have to cough up millions for the privilege.

 

The big question is 'What is Braun's value?' Some people seem to think he's worth a Top 20 prospect while others think he's barely tradable. And that's not just on this board - many writers are all over the place on assessing Ryan's trade value. I guess Stearns is the only one who knows that.

[UMBrewer]

Braun's Trade Value:

 

Assuming the receiving team takes the $4 million buyout in 2021. And I assume this given that projections see him as a below average player at that point, and $16 million is a lot of money to pay a guy for a 2nd division player.

 

Projected future value: ROS 2016 1.4 WAR, 2.5 2017, 2.3 2018, 2.0 2019, 1.7 2020= 9.9 WAR between now and the end of his contract.

 

He will be due $84 million between now and the time of the buyout.

 

$7.5 million times 9,9 WAR equals $74.25 million....meaning the contract is not worth it, meaning the Brewers would have to eat some just to get a bag of balls back.

 

I have thought all along that if they swallowed $30 million of the remaining salary over those years they could get something of value in return. And lets say they offer to pay the buyout....that gives Braun a trade/surplus value of $28 million.

 

That $28 million should net them a top 50 of 100 prospect from whatever team can swallow his salary, the negative press, and that needs a big bat like his for the stretch run. I would say that means his main suitors would probably be the Tigers, the Dodgers, The Nationals. And the Dodgers and Nats both have a prospect they could send over to make it all worth while.

[brewcrewdue80]

What do you suppose Braun's projected WAR would be if you removed 2014 from his career? Because he'd be 3.5+WAR every season with it removed so I don't agree with the projections. The future projection would put him at 3.7WAR this season which is less than his current pace on WAR. Then to drop him over 1WAR immediately next season?

 

The money factor. Figuring Braun won't be traded until after July 15th. He will be owed is math is correct 5.164million to finish the season.

 

15mil, 15mil, 15mil, and 13mil then the next 4seasons. Total: 63.164million for 4.3 seasons.

Then the 18million deferred which I figured out to really be worth about 13million in today's money of total value to pay out over 9years.

 

76.164 million.

 

Now take what interest that deferred money earns~I gave it 4% and you've got 20.41million or 7million difference in value(I didn't continue the 4% earned over the 9years as the deferred payments were made so it would be bigger than just 7million honestly)

 

4.3season:69million in today's money is what Braun is costing a team.

 

So if that WAR projection is correct, He's making Less than what the value of 9.9WAR is. Which I see to be a low estimate.

 

 

So in the Aaron Hill thread there's a post about a Cot's contract and moving contracts. In it it said according to the statement that a Team can remain responsible for the Deferred payments. So If true, Milwaukee could easily take that on and there's your money paid for Braun's contract. Rather than all up front...but statement also listed Could speed up the deferred payments and pay it up front. Something maybe Milwaukee would do with Payroll so low this season/next. Though like I said in today's money that deferred becomes lesser in value over time. One would think rookie Pre-Arbs by 2030 would be over 1million a season.

[MrTPlush]

I agree the WAR projection is pretty inaccurate, but I think the end result still stands. Teams view him as too expensive to pay him and give up prospects...probably taking in excess of $20mil picked up by the Brewers to give up good prospects.

[And That]

MLBTR looks at potential trading partners for Ryan Braun.

 

Nothing really groundbreaking, but a nice summary.

[DougJonesChangeUp]

Braun must be impressing the Dodgers with this home series against them and his ops at a 2013 level. Hopefully they'll pull the trigger with some nice prospects.

[trwi7]

Nothing about his trade value but good god could the Nationals use him because their outfield other than Harper and their offense other than Harper, Murphy and Ramos is horrible.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Nothing about his trade value but good god could the Nationals use him because their outfield other than Harper and their offense other than Harper, Murphy and Ramos is horrible.

He'd complement Harper perfectly. They really are missing that dominant RH bat in the lineup. I wonder if eating Werth makes Braun an even more attractive option.

[brewcrewdue80]

Nothing about his trade value but good god could the Nationals use him because their outfield other than Harper and their offense other than Harper, Murphy and Ramos is horrible.

 

I wouldn't think they could fit Braun. Werth and Harper are the Corner OFs. Revere is CF along with the talented but growing pained Michael Taylor. Werth has 21mil for next season and I'd expect 10&5 rights so you couldn't take him as a salary exchange for Braun. Maybe a 3team deal where he's still being moved to a Contender.

The other problem is Ryan Zimmerman, who has fallen off drastically and stuck at 1b to have a sub .700OPS for that position and 3/48Million guaranteed after this season to still fulfill. With Scherzer and Strasburg making big bucks I can't see them being able to add on Braun's contract.

The only thought process would be to do this for the rest of the season, and trade Harper this offseason for major prospects, Leaving Braun to take over Harper's place. Letting someone else deal with the headache of Boros and signing Harper in 3years as a FA.

 

You'd still have the hurdle of Braun agreeing to the trade with Washington on his no-Trade list

[MrTPlush]

Why exactly do we need to have a trade involving Werth. Just give the Nationals enough money so they can just release him. Problem solved. That or they could do as you mentioned second and trade him to a different team that he would want to play for.

 

No need to overthink this. We don't HAVE to take a player back. Just give them the money equivalent and that hurdle is crossed.

[splitterpfj]

Werth has a full no- trade.

[pacopete4]

Keep Braun. Build around the Hall of Famer!

[RWeeksFan23]

Nothing about his trade value but good god could the Nationals use him because their outfield other than Harper and their offense other than Harper, Murphy and Ramos is horrible.

 

I wouldn't think they could fit Braun. Werth and Harper are the Corner OFs. Revere is CF along with the talented but growing pained Michael Taylor. Werth has 21mil for next season and I'd expect 10&5 rights so you couldn't take him as a salary exchange for Braun. Maybe a 3team deal where he's still being moved to a Contender.

The other problem is Ryan Zimmerman, who has fallen off drastically and stuck at 1b to have a sub .700OPS for that position and 3/48Million guaranteed after this season to still fulfill. With Scherzer and Strasburg making big bucks I can't see them being able to add on Braun's contract.

The only thought process would be to do this for the rest of the season, and trade Harper this offseason for major prospects, Leaving Braun to take over Harper's place. Letting someone else deal with the headache of Boros and signing Harper in 3years as a FA.

 

You'd still have the hurdle of Braun agreeing to the trade with Washington on his no-Trade list

Have Werth and Braun in the corners and Harper in CF. Defense wouldn't be great, but it would drastically improve their offense. Only question is can they afford Braun's salary?

[A Swing and A Drive]

Starting to wonder if the Dodgers go ALL IN and acquire Lucroy and Braun in the same trade??????

 

Probably unlikely but they do have a need at both positions, IMO.

 

Kershaw is having an MVP season and is in his prime. They have to take advantage of that. Once he and the rest of their rotation gets healthy (McCarthy, Ryu, Brett Anderson, etc), they probably feel like they can over take the division from the Giants, who are without Pence and have back-of-the-rotation issues themselves.

[Mudville9]

Giants could use him too. Always nice to have an intradivision bidding war.

[reillymcshane]

Giants could use him too. Always nice to have an intradivision bidding war.

Too bad the Giants system stinks. He would fit there pretty well, plus they have money coming off the books after this season (roughly $50M), so paying him going forward wouldn't be that difficult in their salary structure.

[MrTPlush]

Giants could use him too. Always nice to have an intradivision bidding war.

Too bad the Giants system stinks. He would fit there pretty well, plus they have money coming off the books after this season (roughly $50M), so paying him going forward wouldn't be that difficult in their salary structure.

 

The Giants could always just take on the full contract and the Brewers wouldn't have to kick in any money. Then take that saved money and sign some international free agents. Sure they would get limited for two years, but it isn't like he hand out many big contracts anyway. A couple of the elite international guys would be a pretty stellar get on top of whatever we get out of the Giants.

 

A little outside the box, but it could be done.

[UMBrewer]

Giants could use him too. Always nice to have an intradivision bidding war.

Too bad the Giants system stinks. He would fit there pretty well, plus they have money coming off the books after this season (roughly $50M), so paying him going forward wouldn't be that difficult in their salary structure.

 

The Giants' system isnt too awful actually, especially related to what the Brewers could expect in a Braun trade.

 

Phil Bickford was just ranked the midseason #50 prospect by Baseball America. And if the team could get rid of Braun while only eating about $30 million of his remaining salary, and get a guy who is a future mid rotation starter, I would take it in a second.

 

He would slide into the #2 pitching prospect slot in the organization, which is currently filled buy a guy who is not really all that impressive this year in his 2nd stint in low A Ball (Devin Williams).