Braun trade value now

[A Swing and A Drive]

There is a broad swath of more casual Brewer fans that will go ape ship ballistic if the Brewers undersell on Braun.

 

I agree that this is true. However, MLB owners and GMs that worry about appeasing these fans are not the ones that win World Series Championships.

 

Brewer fans are VASTLY overrating Braun's value. I get that. He led us to our first playoff appearance in 26 years in 2008. He was in his prime. His best years are behind him and as soon as he struggles to earn his contract (could be any year now), he WILL be a lifetime Brewer because the Brewers will be stuck with him.

[Boomer5]

As they say, its better to trade a guy a year too early than a year too late.

 

Braun did his part by mashing this year, the Brewers need to leverage that instead of riding him into the ground.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I get the feeling that the Brewers don't plan on trading BOTH Lucroy and Braun this year. I'm sure they may be open to anything, but have reservations in doing such.

 

Since Lucroy has more currnet trade value, the Brewers will more than likely trade him and keep Braun.

 

They may be doing it so that they don't jettison their two star players and middle of the order hitters in the same season. This would certainly be to appease the casual fan. They would simply pray and hope Braun can remain productive so that they can trade him in a year or two.

 

However, if they DID trade BOTH, the Brewers would likely be one of the top 3 worst teams in baseball the next couple of seasons. That would give them a better chance at drafting our next franchise player, picking in the top 3 of the draft vs. picking in the 7-12 pick range, IMHO.

 

The Astros where able to turn into contenders rather quickly by picking at the top of the draft for several consecutive years. I think with new GM and former Astros front office guy, David Sterns at the helm, hardcore Brewer fans were hoping for and expecting this type of COMPLETE rebuilding course.

 

I hope they don't go the half "butt" route and hold onto Braun because of sentimental fans weird attachment to roided up, former MVP Ryan Braun.

 

Newsflash: He's about to exit his prime, folks.

 

We should be thankful he's so far given us a productive, healthy age-32 season and has increased his trade value.

[Roderick]

Braun's contract is basically market value with considerable risk.

 

 

I would say that his contract is somewhat under market value even after considering his risks (peds, various injuries). If he had no ped history and he was pretty clean on injuries he would be very much under market price.

 

If he were declared a free agent today, he would get more than what his current contract calls for, and that is after I, as a GM, assume he will suck one season due to some type of injury cropping up.

 

So that means there is value to trade on, and substantially more if the Brewers eat some of his contract in a trade. I don't think the Brewers get back an elite talent that is in AA or higher in the minors, without paying quite a bit of Braun's contract and having good competition from teams that want him, possibly from only his trade-allowed list.

[brewcrewdue80]

This is getting annoying this expected age 32 and beyond drop-off. Braun right now is batting .320. What's his dropoff? .266? That would still be better than League Average. Paul Molitor batted .341 and .305 age 39/40 1300+PAs. David Ortiz is batting .339 at age 40.

 

Braun has just proven he's a special hitter. He works with what he's capable of. Was hitting opposite field there w/o pulling the ball much still batted better than .265 through his body pains. He'll adjust as he needs and continue putting the ball in play at a high clip. Miguel Cabrera .338 last year age 32. .305 thus far.

 

The haters will be sadly disappointed when Braun adds .300+ BA this season and 2 of the next 4 seasons. Cabrera is making 28mil to bat .305/.380/.537 with 1b as his near only Defensive position to play. He'll be making 30million here shortly. Guys like Braun, don't suddenly stop hitting.

But keep telling yourself the dropoff is right around the corner.

[Austin Tatious]

Exactly. There is no basis for stating that Braun is about to drop off at the laughably young age of 32. Nil. You've got posters on here acting like 32 is the equivalent age for an NFL running back. It's comical. If you understand baseball and the history of players of Braun's caliber, he can easily hit well until the age of 37. Or else teams, not just Milwaukee, wouldn't sign players to big deals in their 30s.

[paul253]

You enter Braun's other baggage into the equation and it's a no-brainer that Conforto has WAY more trade value

 

It seems like people are taking everything into account except for how good the players actually are right now. Right now Braun would be a HUGE offensive upgrade over Conforto. .229/.298/.741 vs .319/.378/.917. While Conforto will probably get better it's a matter of whether or not the Mets want to wait for that to happen. If they think they are legitimate WS contenders and want to go for it now Braun would be a huge help. Hell how about Braun AND Lucroy to NY for a return centered around Matz? Those two would significantly upgrade their offense this year and next and while Matz is very good the fact is he's probably their #4 right now, at best their #3, and can be replaced in the rotation by Wheeler if and when he gets back.

[reillymcshane]

Paul Molitor batted .341 and .305 age 39/40 1300+PAs. David Ortiz is batting .339 at age 40.

Does Paul Molitor hitting .341 at age 39 mean Braun will do well at 34? No, it doesn't. It only means that some players will continue to hit well.

 

Probably the best hitter of the last 20 years is Albert Pujols.

 

Age 30: 1.011 OPS

31: .906

32: .859

33: .767

34: .790

35: .787

36: .708 (current season)

 

Great players decline at some point. Pujols decline doesn't mean Braun will next year or whenever - it just means it happens to players - even great players.

 

Perhaps there are indications that Braun (or anyone) will age well (or won't age well). That would be interesting to know. But I know there have been studies showing that players, taken as a whole, peak, stay steady, and then decline at a specific age. You might then take in account body type, injuries, type of player (such as a guy who relies on speed or power or whatever), and other variables and draw some conclusions.

 

Ryan is hitting great right now, and I hope he keeps hitting great. But I expect some decline as the years go along. I don't think anyone thinks he's just going to fall off a cliff, but to have him decline gradually is probably what would be expected. And we have to remember, a declining Ryan Braun is (hopefully) still a much better hitter most other hitters.

[MrTPlush]

Exactly. There is no basis for stating that Braun is about to drop off at the laughably young age of 32. Nil. You've got posters on here acting like 32 is the equivalent age for an NFL running back. It's comical. If you understand baseball and the history of players of Braun's caliber, he can easily hit well until the age of 37. Or else teams, not just Milwaukee, wouldn't sign players to big deals in their 30s.

 

I think it is pretty understood universally that when signing a player into their mid-30s or later you are likely going to have a few dud years at the end. Also why do you ignore his injury history? I know too long to list it all. That injury history along with his age sounds pretty scary.

 

He could hit till he is 37...not doubting that. Though not sure it would be easy. He already has trouble consistently staying on the field and performing consistently. However I would rather not take that $80mil risk to find out if I get get a few pieces for the future.

[yfinn6]

Paul Molitor batted .341 and .305 age 39/40 1300+PAs. David Ortiz is batting .339 at age 40.

Does Paul Molitor hitting .341 at age 39 mean Braun will do well at 34? No, it doesn't. It only means that some players will continue to hit well.

 

Probably the best hitter of the last 20 years is Albert Pujols.

 

Age 30: 1.011 OPS

31: .906

32: .859

33: .767

34: .790

35: .787

36: .708 (current season)

 

Great players decline at some point. Pujols decline doesn't mean Braun will next year or whenever - it just means it happens to players - even great players.

 

Perhaps there are indications that Braun (or anyone) will age well (or won't age well). That would be interesting to know. But I know there have been studies showing that players, taken as a whole, peak, stay steady, and then decline at a specific age. You might then take in account body type, injuries, type of player (such as a guy who relies on speed or power or whatever), and other variables and draw some conclusions.

 

Ryan is hitting great right now, and I hope he keeps hitting great. But I expect some decline as the years go along. I don't think anyone thinks he's just going to fall off a cliff, but to have him decline gradually is probably what would be expected. And we have to remember, a declining Ryan Braun is (hopefully) still a much better hitter most other hitters.

 

This is assuming we're positive about Pujols' age. Seems like there have been whispers through the years, almost his entire career, that he's older than his stated age.

[MrTPlush]

You enter Braun's other baggage into the equation and it's a no-brainer that Conforto has WAY more trade value

 

It seems like people are taking everything into account except for how good the players actually are right now. Right now Braun would be a HUGE offensive upgrade over Conforto. .229/.298/.741 vs .319/.378/.917. While Conforto will probably get better it's a matter of whether or not the Mets want to wait for that to happen. If they think they are legitimate WS contenders and want to go for it now Braun would be a huge help. Hell how about Braun AND Lucroy to NY for a return centered around Matz? Those two would significantly upgrade their offense this year and next and while Matz is very good the fact is he's probably their #4 right now, at best their #3, and can be replaced in the rotation by Wheeler if and when he gets back.

 

 

There is no chance they trade a starter at this point...none. Harvey has been inconsistent, Wheeler is an unknown, Matz has had some injury concerns, Syndergaard has injury concerns, and even Colon has had some injury concerns. They can't afford to trade one at this point...probably wouldn't trade Matz anyway.

 

Regardless no I don't think Lucroy and Braun(while eating money) could get Matz. Maybe a three team trade where Matz goes to the Red Sox or something. They could send Matz to the Sox and then give us a portion of what they get to us for Lucroy/Braun.

 

Steven Matz is an ace controlled through 2021. Teams pull up a dump truck to have one for half a season. Teams pay them ridiculous amounts of money in FA. For 5.5 years on the cheap I don't know how many teams could even have the prospects to offer.

[paul253]

Regardless no I don't think Lucroy and Braun(while eating money) could get Matz. Maybe a three team trade where Matz goes to the Red Sox or something. They could send Matz to the Sox and then give us a portion of what they get to us for Lucroy/Braun

 

You don't think Ryan Braun AND Jonathan Lucroy could get Matz? With all due respect I think you're insane. Matz is good but you're talking about two legitimate all stars. Yeah obviously there are other factors like age and money but at some point we need to actually look at the players themselves. The Mets offense is putrid. 28th in runs scored. 29th in BA. 24th in OBP. 20th in OPS. Meanwhile even if you consider all those question marks you brought up they are 2nd in team ERA. They have more than enough pitching to win but their offense is holding them back big time. Adding two middle of the order bats would be huge for them.

[MrTPlush]

Regardless no I don't think Lucroy and Braun(while eating money) could get Matz. Maybe a three team trade where Matz goes to the Red Sox or something. They could send Matz to the Sox and then give us a portion of what they get to us for Lucroy/Braun

 

You don't think Ryan Braun AND Jonathan Lucroy could get Matz? With all due respect I think you're insane. Matz is good but you're talking about two legitimate all stars. Yeah obviously there are other factors like age and money but at some point we need to actually look at the players themselves. The Mets offense is putrid. 28th in runs scored. 29th in BA. 24th in OBP. 20th in OPS. Meanwhile even if you consider all those question marks you brought up they are 2nd in team ERA. They have more than enough pitching to win but their offense is holding them back big time. Adding two middle of the order bats would be huge for them.

 

Nope not insane and I don't think they are particularly close in value. 5.5 years of a legit ace with multiple years at league minimum is unheard of. He is incredibly valuable...heck it might be hard to be worth any more than a guy like Matz is right now.

 

If the Red Sox went and tried to get Matz it would take a ridiculous package. Moncada, Devers, and Espinoza would all likely be involved plus more secondary pieces. He is a top tier pitcher, controllable for a ridiculous amount of time, and dirt cheap. You think Braun/Lucroy have anywhere near that kind of value?

 

Getting both Lucroy/Braun makes a lot of sense to help their offense...but they won't give up Matz for them.

[pacopete4]

It's okay because I wouldn't package Braun and Luc for a pitcher with elbow issues anyways. Getting a 2 for 1 for our two best players? Pass.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm so happy we can call Matz a Legit Ace! with less than 1 year's body of work. Cal Eldred must have been a legit Ace oh, oh no he wasn't.

Matz has now not pitched in to the 7th inning in 4 consecutive starts. Ace he is not. Productive #2 sure. But Aces don't struggle to pitch through 6 innings in that length of stretch.

[Fear The Chorizo]

After last year's trade debacle, the Mets are probably at the bottom of their list when it comes to trade partners - particularly when their best trade chip can't pitch anymore with a bum elbow.

 

I think the focus of Braun/Lucroy trade rumors should shift to teams in the AL/NL west (Rangers, Dodgers, Giants, Astros, Mariners?).

[A Swing and A Drive]

The Mets are simply NOT going to be buyers. With injury issues for Thor, Matz, Wheeler, Cespedes, and Wright popping up and Harvey being inconsistent, they will recognize that this won't be their year to "Go for it".

 

And yes, EVEN Luc AND Braun would not net us Matz.

 

Moving on from the Mets...

 

The Rangers just lost Colby Lewis for 2 months and Darvish is still questionable.

 

I get the feeling we could package someone like SP Chase Anderson in a Lucroy deal and get a nice return, perhaps.

[MrTPlush]

Moving on from the Mets...

 

The Rangers just lost Colby Lewis for 2 months and Darvish is still questionable.

 

I get the feeling we could package someone like SP Chase Anderson in a Lucroy deal and get a nice return, perhaps.

 

Moving on over to the Lucroy thread...

[tmwiese55]

Paul Molitor batted .341 and .305 age 39/40 1300+PAs. David Ortiz is batting .339 at age 40.

Does Paul Molitor hitting .341 at age 39 mean Braun will do well at 34? No, it doesn't. It only means that some players will continue to hit well.

 

Probably the best hitter of the last 20 years is Albert Pujols.

 

Age 30: 1.011 OPS

31: .906

32: .859

33: .767

34: .790

35: .787

36: .708 (current season)

 

Great players decline at some point. Pujols decline doesn't mean Braun will next year or whenever - it just means it happens to players - even great players.

 

Perhaps there are indications that Braun (or anyone) will age well (or won't age well). That would be interesting to know. But I know there have been studies showing that players, taken as a whole, peak, stay steady, and then decline at a specific age. You might then take in account body type, injuries, type of player (such as a guy who relies on speed or power or whatever), and other variables and draw some conclusions.

 

Ryan is hitting great right now, and I hope he keeps hitting great. But I expect some decline as the years go along. I don't think anyone thinks he's just going to fall off a cliff, but to have him decline gradually is probably what would be expected. And we have to remember, a declining Ryan Braun is (hopefully) still a much better hitter most other hitters.

 

This is assuming we're positive about Pujols' age. Seems like there have been whispers through the years, almost his entire career, that he's older than his stated age.

 

And I would wager large sums of money that Pujols was much more reliant on PEDs than Braun ever was. I wasn't surprised his production dropped off basically as soon as he signed that mega-deal.

 

Specific to Braun, if he goes to an AL team where he can move to DH in 2018 it really should mitigate the injury risk a lot. Or if the we still have him there's a chance the DH is here by then.

[paul253]

You think Braun/Lucroy have anywhere near that kind of value

 

Yes I think two all stars, one a former MVP and one quite possibly the best all around catcher in baseball and both of whom would immediately be the best position players on their team, have more value than a 25 year old pitcher with barely over 100 innings in the majors. If the Mets offered me Matz for those two I'd respond "Matz and......?" You're obviously entitled to your opinion but i think you are simultaneously overvaluing Matz and undervaluing Braun and Lucroy

[A Swing and A Drive]

I agree that Pujols was also a potential but UN-PROVEN user of PEDs. He showed a steep decline as he aged in his 30s.

 

The difference is Braun IS a PROVEN user of PEDs. It's not crazy to expect a similar decline in production from Braun.

 

Also not mentioned...

 

The fact that if Ryan gets caught using PEDS again, he will be facing a 100 game MLB suspension.

 

This will certainly give a team looking at acquiring Braun and his contract via trade, significant pause.

 

Especially when considering parting with top, young talent for him.

[tmwiese55]

Financially they don't have to pay him while suspended so that's not a big thing. The issue would be losing a year of his ever dwindling remaining good years.

 

Braun is currently doing very well at age 32. Have to think you can bank on solid production if healthy at 33 and 34 at which point you're kind of playing on house money. Pujols also had such a weird swing that probably didn't help as his bat slowed down. Braun on the other hand has an absolutely perfect swing. To me, the only concern on Braun is his constant nagging injuries and if you have a DH slot for him that should really be reduced as much as possible.

 

I agree with others that if you trade Braun/Lucroy together you should basically be able to get any prospect. If not, then the other side isn't valuing Braun at all so you might as well just keep him.

[MrTPlush]

You think Braun/Lucroy have anywhere near that kind of value

 

Yes I think two all stars, one a former MVP and one quite possibly the best all around catcher in baseball and both of whom would immediately be the best position players on their team, have more value than a 25 year old pitcher with barely over 100 innings in the majors. If the Mets offered me Matz for those two I'd respond "Matz and......?" You're obviously entitled to your opinion but i think you are simultaneously overvaluing Matz and undervaluing Braun and Lucroy

 

No one cares Braun was an MVP half a decade ago. It's about what he is doing now. There is enough baggage on him his value isn't really that high. No one is giving us a blue chip prospect for him. Lucroy is very good...but a 1 year and 2 month rental.

 

You have to look past the fact they are both All Star players right now because it isn't that simple.

[MilwaukeesBest]

You think Braun/Lucroy have anywhere near that kind of value

 

Yes I think two all stars, one a former MVP and one quite possibly the best all around catcher in baseball and both of whom would immediately be the best position players on their team, have more value than a 25 year old pitcher with barely over 100 innings in the majors. If the Mets offered me Matz for those two I'd respond "Matz and......?" You're obviously entitled to your opinion but i think you are simultaneously overvaluing Matz and undervaluing Braun and Lucroy

 

No one cares Braun was an MVP half a decade ago. It's about what he is doing now. There is enough baggage on him his value isn't really that high. No one is giving us a blue chip prospect for him. Lucroy is very good...but a 1 year and 2 month rental.

 

You have to look past the fact they are both All Star players right now because it isn't that simple.

 

Yawn. Sounds like we're giving them away for two bags of baseballs because nobody likes Braun, Lucroy can only be controlled for 1.5 years (with no chance of signing him to an extension), they're only playing at All-Star levels, again.

 

I mean really if we package those two guys together for Matz, we're only getting a 5.5 year rental....

[tmwiese55]

Whoever gets Lucroy would have him for 1.5 years on the best contract in baseball and the upperhand to tack on a 3 yr extension. Which he is probably desperate to sign so you can get him at a reasonable rate before hitting FA and paying market value, which is usually absurd. Lucroy is the best or second best C in baseball with the best contract in baseball (other than rookie deals of course), you should get a great package for him.