Braun trade value now

[tmwiese55]

One thing to factor in for MKE though could be the likelihood of a DH in the NL by the last few years of Braun's deal. Timing could work out just when they need it.

[A Swing and A Drive]

With all the rumors out there, I think Braun will be traded, and I think the Brewers will get a nice return. This snippet from MLBTraderumors.com is nice to hear:

 

"...Brewers owner Mark Attanasio is more concerned with ensuring that the Brewers receive premium talent than he is shedding a portion of Braun’s notable contract."

 

I think the Brewers could get a decent return for Braun without eating any salary, but if they eat salary, they should be able to get multiple "Top 100" guys for him. Stearns is in a very good position in that he arguably has the two best commodities on the market, and other GMs will be bidding against each other to get them. All it takes is for one of them to get anxious and offer up what Stearns wants, and we could end up with a gold mine.

 

 

I will go on record saying that I DON'T think Braun will be traded. With Attanasio's comments in mind about receiving premium talent, I don't think the Brewers will get an offer with the return they were hoping for and simply decide to keep Braun.

[jerichoholicninja]

I know HanRam is supposed to be the anointed DH after Ortiz retires but could Boston be an option in the offseason for Braun? Ramirez I guess hasn't been a disater defensively at 1B but his bat is pretty much gone. I think it's a guarantee they sign one of Bautitsa or Encarnacion so it probably won't matter anyway.

[markedman5]

Braun is handling this stuff about as professionally as humanly possible.

 

 

Ryan Braun tells MLB.com’s Michael Wagaman that he’s aware of the trade rumors swirling around his name and has had conversations with Brewers GM David Stearns about the possibility of such a move. Braun says he has a “great relationship” with the team’s management. “As far as I know I don’t think that there’s anything that’s that close,” he adds. “But if it was up to me, if I was running an organization there would never be anybody that was off-limits. I would be open to anything, I would listen to any proposals anybody else has. Certainly they should be doing that with every player on our roster, as should every other team.”

[Jose Cardenal1]

Braun is handling this stuff about as professionally as humanly possible.

 

Absolutely. I don't think a team, GM or Agent could ask for better responses from a player in Braun's position. He always goes out of his way to say he would be happy staying with the Brewers (not sure I buy that) but that he completely understands where the organization is and what David Stearns would like to do. He really does get it, which makes him more attractive to other teams too.

 

Really since the PED suspension Braun has done exactly what he needed to do: keep his head down, speak little, and when he does speak he gives the right answers. Basically do nothing to draw attention to yourself, or give people who hate you a reason to continue to hate you. That is how a politician survives a scandal.

[Boomer5]

Just a thought from the Lucroy thread about the Mets who I think is a bad fit for Luc.

 

Braun for Wheeler straight up, no money from the Brewers side.

 

Im not saying I would do it or not, just gauging what value Braun has here. Would you take it?

[splitterpfj]

Braun for Wheeler straight up, no money from the Brewers side.

 

Absolutely not.

 

Ryan Braun is still an outstanding hitter, he's not good, he's much better than that.

 

You can't sell me Wheeler for Braun, saying Braun has a history of injury, because Wheeler does too.

 

You can't sell me Wheeler, saying he's an equal talent to Braun, because he certainly is not, he is the young pitcher with talent, who was not elite in the big leagues before he was hurt, has now been hurt, and has burned service time.

 

You can't sell me, "Dump Braun to Save Money", because Braun's contract isn't terrible at this point to begin with, and the team cut plenty of payroll, so they can afford to keep him here if they so choose.

 

This would be a, "get out of the contract and hope Wheeler's ok" move - what's the point? If the Brewers do a thing like that, they're telling me they fear his back injury much more than we know at this point, or they don't believe PEDs are gone for good. I have no reason to believe either, but it's not like the team would put that on the evening news.

 

Braun's playing well, if that's the best offer out there, then keep him right here and talk to teams again in November.

[Boomer5]

Braun for Wheeler straight up, no money from the Brewers side.

 

Absolutely not.

 

Ryan Braun is still an outstanding hitter, he's not good, he's much better than that.

 

You can't sell me Wheeler for Braun, saying Braun has a history of injury, because Wheeler does too.

 

You can't sell me Wheeler, saying he's an equal talent to Braun, because he certainly is not, he is the young pitcher with talent, who was not elite in the big leagues before he was hurt, has now been hurt, and has burned service time.

 

You can't sell me, "Dump Braun to Save Money", because Braun's contract isn't terrible at this point to begin with, and the team cut plenty of payroll, so they can afford to keep him here if they so choose.

 

This would be a, "get out of the contract and hope Wheeler's ok" move - what's the point? If the Brewers do a thing like that, they're telling me they fear his back injury much more than we know at this point, or they don't believe PEDs are gone for good. I have no reason to believe either, but it's not like the team would put that on the evening news.

 

Braun's playing well, if that's the best offer out there, then keep him right here and talk to teams again in November.

 

At the beginning of the year, I would have taken that deal. Of course at that time, I thought we had a calvary of OF'ers in the minors ready in year or so and I thought Braun would be an on and off DL kind of guy. Both assumptions of mine are way off.

 

Now seeing how well he has performed, I am on the fence of such a deal. Braun is better than Wheeler but its Wheeler and $50-$75M factoring in what is left to pay Braun and what we would pay Wheeler give or take.

 

Would Wheeler have significant trade value in 2017-2018, or is he the anchor of a (modestly) contending Brewer 2018 team?

 

What would be a more appropriate and realistic Braun trade?

[splitterpfj]

Would Wheeler have significant trade value in 2017-2018, or is he the anchor of a (modestly) contending Brewer 2018 team?

 

I think these are the right questions to ask, and they lead to the reason I wouldn't make a move like this .... there's too much uncertainty, because Wheeler hasn't pitched in so long.

 

If you trade a player like Ryan Braun for a single player, you have to be certain you're getting a key contributor back, or at least you have to have a plan for the money you're saving, that will lead you to improved talent. Honestly, since I don't expect a contending team to deal a key player away midseason, you're looking at prospects - I want to hedge the bet, by getting more than one.

 

From the Mets .... looking at a thin farm system, I want Wheeler and Michael Conforto, and then, ONLY if the scouts still truly believe in both guys.

 

If I'm the Mets, I'm over the thumb injury, I'd check the back out as much as you can, and then I weigh things like, will Cespedes stay or go, does Braun push this team over the top this season, and how do we feel about the past PED stuff?

 

Whether or not it's the Mets, someone will jump, or the Brewers will keep Braun for the time being.

[A Swing and A Drive]

NO chance in heck the Brewer would be able to get Wheeler AND Conforto for Braun.

 

Braun's contract is basically market value with considerable risk.

 

If we asked for just Conforto for him, the Mets would say no...not happening.

[splitterpfj]

If we asked for just Conforto for him, the Mets would say no...not happening.

 

If this is true, then what's the value in trading Ryan Braun? If you can't get somebody who at least has a chance to be an excellent big leaguer, then you're either taking less than Braun is worth in talent, or you're simply dumping the contract.

 

The only way you dump the contract on a guy who's playing at an all-star level is because you have a better plan for the money, or I suppose you could be fearing a collapse by the player you've got. If the Brewers think they have a better plan for the money, then I trust them to move Braun and enact that plan.

 

Braun's still good, and not just a little bit. Braun's contract is not out of line for his production. Yes, he's a unique case, I understand why some teams would shy away, but if the return is thin, I think the Brewers should keep Braun right where he is.

 

At some point, either someone pays for Ryan Braun in talent, or the Brewers decide to let them pay for him in dollars. If the offer isn't there in talent right now, Braun is certainly showing me enough to wait on a deal and see what the winter brings.

[brewcrewdue80]

NO chance in heck the Brewer would be able to get Wheeler AND Conforto for Braun.

 

Braun's contract is basically market value with considerable risk.

 

If we asked for just Conforto for him, the Mets would say no...not happening.

 

That's a joke. It'd be the Brewers hanging up the phone if the Mets ONLY offer Conforto for him.

 

Braun's contract is NOT market value. Fangraphs who rates him terribly in defense, while BRef has him as a positive, Has him already valued at 11.1million on the season. He was 22+ of value last season or er, Above his contract value. Cespedes was given 25million per year so you're telling me he's 8million more than Braun when his offense has never been better than Braun's career offense? Of which Braun is currently exceeding?

 

MLBTR had the one comment with a scout or someone, saying Ryan Braun, now that's the name I'm waiting for.

 

15million a year is Below a QO which is based on average of top 75 players in MLB salary.

[MrTPlush]

Braun for Wheeler straight up, no money from the Brewers side.

 

I take it. From everything I see Zack Wheeler has quite a bit of value right now. Ryan Braun and his full contract not so much. Problem is the Brewers aren't trying to shed salary and prefer the prospects. I think the Brewers would prefer to take on salary and get more back. That being said I bet we could trade for Wheeler and never have him pitch a game for us. Just flipping him would probably net more than if we just traded Braun for prospects in a different deal(since we are assuming the Brewers pay nothing).

 

The only risk is if we let him pitch for us to see if he can increase his value. If he pitched like his 2014 form for half a season he would be worth a lot more than Braun and his full contract is worth. Probably not any bigger of a risk than a bunch of prospects. Actually probably a safer bet.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Ryan Braun's contract details

 

Year-Age Base Salary Signing Bonus Total Salary

 

2016-32 $19,000,000 $1,000,000 $20,000,000

2017-33 $19,000,000 $1,000,000 $20,000,000

2018-34 $19,000,000 $1,000,000 $20,000,000

2019-35 $18,000,000 $1,000,000 $19,000,000

2020-36 $16,000,000 $1,000,000 $17,000,000

2021-37 $15,000,000 - $15,000,000

 

It's nice that the Brewers front loaded this contract so that if he's still productive, the Brewers could receive something of value for him for his age 35-37 seasons. It's still a risky contract as he ages, as the injury risk goes up with age and production will start to go down as father time marches on.

Michael Conforto's contract details

 

Year Age Base Salary Total Salary

 

2016-23 $517,246 $517,246

2017-24 TC

2018-25 TC

2019-26 ARB 1

2020-27 ARB 2

2021-28 ARB 3

 

So Conforto makes league minimum for next three years, and then gets 3 years of arb as he enters his prime.

 

During this same period of time, Braun will be entering his decline.

 

Why would ANY team trade Conforto and his contract for Braun and his contract?

 

An argument could easily be made that EVEN IF their contracts were EQUAL for the next 6 years, teams would still value Conforto over Braun due to age alone.

 

You enter Braun's other baggage into the equation and it's a no-brainer that Conforto has WAY more trade value.

[Mudville9]

 

Why would ANY team trade Conforto and his contract for Braun and his contract?

 

An argument could easily be made that EVEN IF their contracts were EQUAL for the next 6 years, teams would still value Conforto over Braun due to age alone.

 

You enter Braun's other baggageinto the equation and it's a no-brainer.

 

I think you need to keep in mind that Braun could push the Mets in the WS. Without him, they may not make the playoffs. It is definitely a gamble, but for a team like the Mets, who don't have any bats coming up it might be worth the risk. New York is a place of risk and reward and Braun fits that description in spades. If I'm a team in the Mets position, I might do that deal.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I get that the Mets are playing for this season and if Conforto was just a AAA player with potential and no MLB track record, it would make more sense. However, Conforto has shown flashes of being a 30+ hr, middle of the order hitter in the majors already, including during the Mets World Series run last year. I think that alone, makes the Mets prefer Conforto over Braun even without the contract differences.

 

Why take on a 6-year contract of an aging player for a WS run when you could simply trade for one with a soon to be expiring contract?

[Boomer5]

While my trade was hypothetical, my ability to jinx players is quite real.

 

Wheeler has had a setback in his return from TJ.

[A Swing and A Drive]

At this point, my guess is that the Mets match up well with the A's on a 3B Danny Valencia trade, and they can likely acquire him without giving up an MLB piece.

[logan82]

Braun's contract only costs $15m per year after taking out the deferred money.

[Austin Tatious]

There is no way I would trade Braun for Zach Wheeler straight up. Talk about an injury concern! Good grief.

 

I have no problem with Braun being a Brewer for life. He cheated and, even worse, lied about it. It's tough, but I have forgiven him. His offensive talent is insane. 32 is not crazy old. He's not a running back in the NFL where a 32 year old would be certifiably Geritol regulars. Molly had injury concerns and then cranked out 1500 hits after being 32. Baseball players can do fine after the age of 32. Some people are taking Braun's production for granted.

 

There is a broad swath of more casual Brewer fans that will go ape ship ballistic if the Brewers undersell on Braun. As mentioned above, if you understand market factors, it is clear that Braun's contract is not out of line, and numbers are frankly going up from here. The real concern with Braun is nagging injuries. But, he is a pure hitter. There aren't many people at any given time that have the combination of offensive tools that Braun has and there is no reason why any player can't have success until their age 37 season.

 

If you're in a pennant race and you can get Braun, who's on pace to have a very good season, even with mark downs for loss of games. Take the missed games into consideration and he's still a .310 28, 100 guy. Can I interest you in that? the same guys who say we won't get much for Braun were pounding the table that we wouldn't get as much as we did for Gomez.

 

Besides negotiations, market value and contracts, if that's not your thing, if you just look at baseball, the Brewers will absolutely go in the crapper without Braun and Lucroy. What's more pressing, though, is this franchise won't have anyone on the horizon that is a Braun level player. This is simply not the Astros or Cubs systems yet. So, you'd be looking at a phenomenally bleak situation once you trade them. Nobody wants to be terrible with nothing on the horizon but a bunch of .250 or less hitters with average power.

 

Lucroy will get a haul. That's a given.

 

If it's a matter of not getting value for Braun, I am not moving him and I am going with the Brewer for life concept. At least we would have a breathtaking offensive talent.

[brewcrewdue80]

I get that the Mets are playing for this season and if Conforto was just a AAA player with potential and no MLB track record, it would make more sense. However, Conforto has shown flashes of being a 30+ hr, middle of the order hitter in the majors already, including during the Mets World Series run last year. I think that alone, makes the Mets prefer Conforto over Braun even without the contract differences.

 

Why take on a 6-year contract of an aging player for a WS run when you could simply trade for one with a soon to be expiring contract?

 

Yet with the Mets offense dreadful, he is #7 in the lineup tonight not middle of the order. I think segura was on a 30+hr pace after 1.5months his 1st year.

 

 

You don't have the contract knowledge down after the numerous times posting it. Braun has 18million deferred which with inflation equals 13+million in today's money. Add the interest you'd earn out of that 18mil and come 2022 you have 20.5million to pay Braun 2million the next 9years. I could figure this out deeper but 18mil deferred is honestly like 9million today. With the interest earned today compared to inflation on Brauns 18 million. His contract is like 5/86mil. Less this year's already paid to. And before Milw sends any money in trade.

[nate82]

 

I take it. From everything I see Zack Wheeler has quite a bit of value right now. Ryan Braun and his full contract not so much.

 

This is 100% false now as Wheeler is experiencing discomfort in his elbow. What does that mean it means his value is tanking faster than some really good pun insert here.

 

Even before the news today about Wheeler's elbow discomfort his value wasn't as high as some here have been making it out to be. Wheeler has barely even pitched yet this year and he may not even pitch this year. You really think a player who could be out of baseball for another year is going to have more value than Braun?

 

If Wheeler needs surgery again he will definitely be off of the top 100 even the top 200 he would be off. His value if he needs more time this year or needs surgery again means he will have negative value for the Mets.

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/zack-wheeler-experiences-soreness-surgically-repaired-elbow-article-1.2682567

[splitterpfj]

Conforto has shown flashes of being a 30+ hr, middle of the order hitter in the majors already

 

A fair point, and hence the reason the Brewers would want a player like him.

 

However, he has also shown flashes of being returned to AAA, which has been rumored in recent days.

 

The Brewers don't need to deal Braun, if the offers are two guys who look, "pretty good", I'd keep him in Milwaukee at this point.

[DHonks]

I want 3-5 players with the value Wheeler had last week for Braun (since today Wheeler's value is way down). The Brewers have no reason to move Braun's cheap contract and all-star play, unless they are overwhelmed. For a team making a profit of $20-40 million this year, I can't fathom why dumping Braun is logical.

[monty57]

...So Conforto makes league minimum for next three years, and then gets 3 years of arb as he enters his prime.

 

During this same period of time, Braun will be entering his decline.

 

Why would ANY team trade Conforto and his contract for Braun and his contract? ...

 

Because contracts are not everything. As much as I like money, talent is why teams pay.

 

Conforto's career minor league OPS is .854, while Braun's career major league OPS is .911, so Braun on the decline at the end of his current contract could very well be better than Conforto ever reaches. But really, anyone who is trading for Braun is looking at what he will do for them in the next year or two. Braun's OPS is currently .917 vs Conforto's .741. OPS isn't everything, but that's significant, and it is very, very likely that Braun will be better than Conforto at least this year and next year, which should help the Mets if they are looking to win the World Series in that time frame.

 

Conforto looks like a guy who should have a good MLB career. Braun could end up in the Hall of Fame. Braun is a very special player. Conforto is not worth Ryan Braun, and as others have said, the only way the Brewers make that deal straight up is if they need to save the money. They don't. The Mets need cash more than the Brewers, so if Braun were going to the Mets it would be very likely that the Brewers would eat a good portion of Braun's contract and get more talent back. Conforto may be one of those pieces, but certainly not the only piece.