Braun trade value now

[tmwiese55]

Here's Braun. I miss games. Come back 3hits total, 2games and 1 RBI in each. He just produces if he's playing. You will have a hard time showing me a Batter that a team can trade for who's giving the elite Bat ability Braun is bringing right now.

 

Agreed. And I apologize in advance, as this has become a circular debate, so I'm repeating myself. If you're a GM, do you give up a couple top prospects who may not be able to play during the pennant run and/or playoffs? Or accept the fact he's a ticking time bomb ready to miss a huge stretch of games at any given moment?

 

It's a very real concern, and any team will have a hard time giving up a couple top prospects and committing to big salary for multiple years with his injury risk. And I do agree his salary is fair, and not a big deal for the big market teams. But it's still a big contract if he's not playing.

 

Let me be clear. This doesn't mean a deal CAN'T get done. GMs and Owners are people, and they make emotional decisions in the heat of a pennant chase. And anyone would love to have Braun in their line-up. All I'm saying is his injuries are a real issue.

 

As for his legacy, yes, of course he cares. But he may feel winning a WS or two would be a better legacy than playing his entire career in Milwaukee. Also, he will never be viewed as a Yount by many fans even if he does. Besides the PED thing, he just doesn't come off as a down to earth guy. He may be the nicest guy in the world, I don't know, but perception is reality for fans.

 

He will never be Yount and he almost certainly wont be a Brewer when they develop a WS team.

 

If he can go to a contender, that is his best bet to change the career narrative.

 

PEDS are very much still a part of the game, as we just saw with Byrd.

 

I would guess PEDs are less a part of baseball than any of the 3 major sports. The media just obsesses about it in baseball.

[bill hAll Star]

So you want a guy who's got a Negative WAR 63IP last year and 57.2IP thus far this year?

 

Yes. I love acquiring affordable young hard-throwing lefties that were considered future aces until experiencing elbow problems. His elbow issues are behind him. He should get better as the year goes on. He should be on path to dominate next year. I don't think he'd be with us in 2020 on a new contract, but I could see us swapping him for a boatload of talent in 2018 or 19. He'd be just a piece...Braun currently would need several other prospects

 

Until Matt Moore throws his slider again, he's not very valuable. His velocity is slowly rising back to pre-TJ norms, who knows if it will ever get there...but he's just an average/below average pitcher without that slider.

[trwi7]

Not a rumor but Olney brought up Ryan Braun as a trade candidate and didn't bring up PED's, which is amazing considering who was reporting.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Not a rumor but Olney brought up Ryan Braun as a trade candidate and didn't bring up PED's, which is amazing considering who was reporting.

Must be a miracle coming from that douche nozzle. He did say it would be hard for us to trade him with his contract though, which I don't really buy for a second.

[MrTPlush]

Not a rumor but Olney brought up Ryan Braun as a trade candidate and didn't bring up PED's, which is amazing considering who was reporting.

Must be a miracle coming from that douche nozzle. He did say it would be hard for us to trade him with his contract though, which I don't really buy for a second.

 

I buy it. If the Brewers want good prospects it could very well could make a trade hard.

[beekay414]

Not a rumor but Olney brought up Ryan Braun as a trade candidate and didn't bring up PED's, which is amazing considering who was reporting.

Must be a miracle coming from that douche nozzle. He did say it would be hard for us to trade him with his contract though, which I don't really buy for a second.

 

I buy it. If the Brewers want good prospects it could very well could make a trade hard.

 

Not really. Just eat the deferred money and the rest of this year's salary and the contract is more along the lines of 4 years/$58 Million with a $4 Million buy out on the 5th year which is far from a problem for his level of bat. I have no problem eating the $18 Million in deferred money and the additional (roughly) $13 Million this year (as of today - by the deadline it'll be well under $10 million) if it means the return brings us back more quality prospects. We can eat that money no problem with how low the payroll on the club is right now.

[MrTPlush]

I buy it. If the Brewers want good prospects it could very well could make a trade hard.

 

Not really. Just eat the deferred money and the rest of this year's salary and the contract is more along the lines of 4 years/$58 Million with a $4 Million buy out on the 5th year which is far from a problem for his level of bat. I have no problem eating the $18 Million in deferred money and the additional (roughly) $13 Million this year (as of today - by the deadline it'll be well under $10 million) if it means the return brings us back more quality prospects. We can eat that money no problem with how low the payroll on the club is right now.

 

Yes....so the contract is a problem. You just made a big paragraph proving that. Maybe eating that money is a big problem to the Brewers. Maybe $18mil is too much in their eyes. The contract is a pretty big roadblock seeing no team seems to be interested in the contract and giving up good prospects.

[beekay414]

Considering the deferred money will be paid in installments from 2022 to 2031 anyways and they're not paying anyone else much money (nor would they be paying anyone much money replacing him in LF should we trade him), it's not a problem eating any of what I proposed.

 

I mean, you could pay Ryan Braun less than $20 Million a year during a time where he's still an elite bat or you could sign Josh Reddick for a similar price this offseason. Or you could pay a 36 year old Jose Bautista even more. There are no bats on the market as good as Braun or as affordable as him both during the season (trade deadline) or offseason. Sorry but the contract isn't a problem. When guys like Mike Leake and Jeff Samardzija are making $16 Million, Braun's contract is chump change in comparison.

[MilwaukeesBest]

I'm in the clan which says the contract isn't a problem as well, however, if he continues to miss a time I would think it'd be unlikely a team would go out of their way to not only take on a fair majority of the contract but give up the necessary prospects that the team would want back.

 

Another point is the idea that "we" would have no problem eating a bunch of money (18 million) or so or potentially more. It's easy for us to say that on a forum or Brewer fans but when it's your money and you're in the business to make it instead of win championships (which tends to get lost in the grand scheme of baseball being a business) I wouldn't take it for granted that the Milwaukee would just sign off on paying any amount to increase a prospect package.

[beekay414]

I'm in the clan which says the contract isn't a problem as well, however, if he continues to miss a time I would think it'd be unlikely a team would go out of their way to not only take on a fair majority of the contract but give up the necessary prospects that the team would want back.

 

Another point is the idea that "we" would have no problem eating a bunch of money (18 million) or so or potentially more. It's easy for us to say that on a forum or Brewer fans but when it's your money and you're in the business to make it instead of win championships (which tends to get lost in the grand scheme of baseball being a business) I wouldn't take it for granted that the Milwaukee would just sign off on paying any amount to increase a prospect package.

 

Not taking it for granted. Just considering the fact that we've already got a 10 year plan to pay him $18 Million already, it doesn't really affect much because we're going to pay him that regardless. So, we'd basically only be eating around $10 Million which isn't much. I mean, the Padres just ate $28 Million of James Shield's salary and their payroll is almost $27 Million higher than ours. We have the lowest payroll in the league right now. Don't really think eating his remaining $$$ for 2016 and the deferred money is a problem. It's a little less than $13 Million if we traded him now or less than $10 Million if we trade him at the deadline and obviously, if we waited til the offseason, we'd only eat the deferred money. $10-13 Million this year (if we deal him in season) and $1.8 Million a year from 2022-2031 isn't really much to eat in the grand scheme of how deals work.

[MrTPlush]

What these writers/rumors are referring to is his full contract as it stands. Braun at 5/$105(minus what we have paid of it) IS a problem. No one wants him at that and giving up prospects. The Brewers want good prospects so that makes the contract a problem. There has been conflicting reports of whether or not the Brewers would eat money and to what extent. We also don't know how cheap Braun has to be to make teams start throwing around good prospects.

 

Whether or not we think Braun's contract is acceptable etc. really doesn't matter. It is about what other teams think. Braun's value is a hard one to peg with so many issues(age, large contract, many injuries, PED past). It is possible teams are just low balling in these said rumors since it is early in the season. I wouldn't be surprised if the Ryan Braun rumors are super "negative" and someone blows the Brewers away out of nowhere. That or teams get scared away due to all the issues and Braun's market never takes shape.

 

Should be an interesting story to watch as we approach July.

[beekay414]

I know what the writers are referring too. I'm explaining to you why they aren't entirely correct. There's a multitude of ways to get around contracts so saying it's a problem isn't entirely accurate.

[trwi7]

I personally think Braun's no trade clause is more of a hindrance to a deal than his current contract. Is he going to want that option year guaranteed if we work out a deal with a team not on his no trade list? Will he even accept a trade to a team that's not on his no trade list?

 

We can and should be willing to eat some money if it adds to the return we get, it's just whether we'll be able to find a match to be able to eat that money and make the deal more palatable for the trading team.

[beekay414]

Agree with you about the NTC. It's definitely a bigger hindrance than the contract.

[bill hAll Star]

If Braun finished this season fairly healthy and was a free agent after 2016, I feel like he'd get as much or more of what he is currently slated to earn. Contract isn't a problem. Sure, if it was 2 years, $15 million or 5 years, $30 million remaining that would be helpful to trading him...but I don't see it as a hindrance.

[billymac]

I personally think Braun's no trade clause is more of a hindrance to a deal than his current contract. Is he going to want that option year guaranteed if we work out a deal with a team not on his no trade list? Will he even accept a trade to a team that's not on his no trade list?

 

Braun earns 10 and 5 rights come next year May, so if we hold him, he has the final say in where he goes if anywhere. I know there's 5-6 teams now we can openly trade with without his consent, but it just makes it that much harder next year.

[MrTPlush]

I know what the writers are referring too. I'm explaining to you why they aren't entirely correct. There's a multitude of ways to get around contracts so saying it's a problem isn't entirely accurate.

 

Is it not a problem if you need to find ways to get around it? Cause that sounds like a problem. The better question is how big of a problem? I'd lean towards more of a small hurdle to get over, but then again I don't know the details. How much are the Brewers willing to eat? Anything less than the $18m and you may have a bigger problem. What do other teams demand to be paid by the Brewers? Any more than the $18mil and you likely have a big issue.

 

The biggest issue when it come to the NTC is probably going to be money related too. I am not really concerned about him blocking a trade with it, but using it to demand his option being picked up. Suddenly more money has been added to the equation. Does that alter the return or how much the Brewers must pay?

[Boomer5]

While the contract might be in the ball park of fair market value (though tough to gauge factoring in age, injury, length of deal, etc), I can't recall too many recent mid season trades where a team has traded off a long term contract and not picked up some money or a bad contract.

 

Im still thinking the Tulo model is our best bet. We take on half of Brauns deal in some capacity and pick up solid package of prospects.

[Mudville9]

Would we do a Braun to the White Sox for Fullmer + and not pay any salary if we get close to the deadline with no other offers. Not the best return, but if we don't have to send money their way it might be worth it. Otherwise depending on what DS and the scouts feel about their lower minors, maybe Fullmer + a Lind type deal with a little cash thrown in.

 

I get that it isn't the best return, but I think if we can get Fullmer and Braun waives his NTC, everything else could be worked out. I just think that if we don't trade him now or this offseason he will be a Brewer for the life of the contract and I'm not sure how that help the rebuild all that much.

[MrTPlush]

I really don't think you are going to get any good if we don't eat any cash. I also question if the White Sox could afford to put his contract on their payroll for this year. $10mil approx. is a lot to take on.

 

Fulmer would be an amazing return for Braun if we took oN a decent amount of money. Then maybe we could get some lottery tickets with him. That would be a dream return in my opinion.

 

I keep hoping someone gets desperate for a bat and gives us something similar to what Cole Hamels got. Though that is probably a pipe dream.

[Mudville9]

...looks like the Giants need outfielders too, but their system isn't much better than White Sox. I believe we don't need #8's permission to trade him to San Fran though. Tyler Beede and Bickford would be nice and we can pay Braun's contract this year and half next to keep them under the luxury tax.

 

Okert would be nice too since the Brewers tried drafting him twice. I know, not the current regime. Trade season is inching up on us!!!

[tmwiese55]

...looks like the Giants need outfielders too, but their system isn't much better than White Sox. I believe we don't need #8's permission to trade him to San Fran though. Tyler Beede and Bickford would be nice and we can pay Braun's contract this year and half next to keep them under the luxury tax.

 

Okert would be nice too since the Brewers tried drafting him twice. I know, not the current regime. Trade season is inching up on us!!!

 

I remember when we played the Reds a few weeks ago they were talking about Adam Duvall's kind of breakout season for Cinncy. He came over in a trade with SF last year for Mike Leake. BA said something along the lines of how he was blocked in SF's outfield so he was expendable and I thought who they have at LF and I think they start Gregor Palanco who is bad. Then I looked at one listing of top prospects for teams and they didn't have any OFs near their top. I'm sure BA was just BSing to fill air and didn't really know but after I looked it up I thought Braun would fit and we all know Giants fans love left fielders with a PED history.

[Boomer5]

There arent a whole lot of teams in the league that couldnt find a place for a healthy Braun.

 

Id still say the Dodgers are the best fit for all involved though.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'd say the market value for someone less than Braun was set 3? years ago. Shane Victorino signed a 3/39mil deal for the Red Sox. 13million a year was also given to a couple others I thought that offseason. But, to put Victorino in perspective He had under an .800 OPS record from his Philly days and put up just 1 season over .803OPS leading up to that contract that began for him age 32. It would appear Victorino grades a little higher than Braun Defensively but nowhere near where Braun can grade offensively. Braun's career average is 142OPS+ and he's at 155 this year. Victorino's Best year was just 130. A year before his contract.

 

I'd say that contract is below what Braun is worth, but with the added years you can maybe say that is what may be seen as reasonable. 13-14million a year at the worst you would ask for Milwaukee to cover above. That would come to about 5mil per year, less this year's already paid. So we're back at about 20million to cover at the most, for the worst value that is from 2013 for a player Not up to Braun's league.

He's just at such a higher level his Poor year in 14 still had a 113OPS+ And was worth 1WAR still while playing a new position for first time in his career.

 

The decline with age thing would appear to me that he's still a solid player vs elite. As I said before, the Brewers need to kick in money, is likely being asked from the franchises who wouldn't pay someone, or multiple someones 18mil a year. Oakland/Tampa/Pittsburgh/Mets. And suddenly any trade involving Braun requires a compensation from Milw's side.

I'm still hopeful on the Giants and honestly, a deal with the Giants, I can see a 3team trade out there for Milwaukee to get the prospect they need maybe. Tampa for instance. Sends us Brent Honeywell we send them Jeffress or Thornburg. San Fran send Tampa say Lucious Fox and to us Chris Shaw-1b and Sam Coonrod. I'd imagine Tampa should throw Milwaukee 1 more prospect maybe Richie Schaffer and you've suddenly put two 1b prospects for Milw in same deal and they can platoon with Schaffer being a backup 3b?

But in Honeywell, Milw gets a better ranked SP than Beede or Bickford.

 

That'd be fun for a trade.

[MrTPlush]

There arent a whole lot of teams in the league that couldnt find a place for a healthy Braun.

 

Id still say the Dodgers are the best fit for all involved though.

 

The same team that just released an outfielder for $35mil? I doubt they want to invest millions in a new aging injury prone outfielder.

 

Not to mention they have Thompson, Puig, and Pederson. No room for Braun.