Braun trade value now

[homer]

Cameron knows his stuff. That article was just spitballing names. In the summary he says that the Nats make the most sense. It seems this is like one of those games of telephone where the message gets diluted the more it's repeated. Fangraphs writes an article which is quoted by the Globe which is paraphrased by Yahoo.....and all of a sudden you get Braun and Lucroy for Fat Panda and an underachieving prospect.

 

Here are the pertinent paragraphs as they relate to the Red Sox:

 

And the options for a deal with Boston extend beyond just shipping Braun and some portion of his contract to the Red Sox. The Brewers and Red Sox are natural trade partners on multiple fronts, and if the teams wanted to get together on a blockbuster, there appears to be a chance for them to make one big move that solves a bunch of problems all at once. With Blake Swihart already losing his job and potentially being moved out from behind the plate if he stays in Boston, Jonathan Lucroy would also make a good deal sense for Boston, and a Lucroy/Braun package could allow the Brewers to start asking for some interesting young players in exchange, rather than simply dumping salary.

 

Toss in the fact that the Brewers could also take back one of the Red Sox dead money contracts — either Rusney Castillo or Pablo Sandoval, or both if they wanted to get really crazy — and the options for a blockbuster get pretty interesting. Castillo could work as an offset for Braun’s contract if the teams would rather go that direction rather than having the Brewers continue to pay Braun after he leaves town, and potentially motivate the Red Sox to move a guy like Swihart in a deal that got them both Braun and Lucroy while moving Castillo’s deal. Toss in some secondary prospects to make it worth the Brewers time, and the Red Sox could load up for a strong run for the next few years, while the Brewers could give Swihart a real shot behind the plate to see if he can stick at catcher, while also adding some more youth to their rebuild.

[MrTPlush]

However this part says the Red Sox wouldn't entertain Swihart unless Braun/Lucroy are both involved and we take on money. Maybe it is just worded badly.

 

"Castillo could work as an offset for Braun’s contract if the teams would rather go that direction rather than having the Brewers continue to pay Braun after he leaves town, and potentially motivate the Red Sox to move a guy like Swihart in a deal that got them both Braun and Lucroy while moving Castillo’s deal."

[SRB]

Cameron knows his stuff.

 

I find Dave Cameron to be one of the least informed baseball pundits out there.

[homer]

Cameron knows his stuff.

 

I find Dave Cameron to be one of the least informed baseball pundits out there.

 

 

Cool

[adambr2]

Any deal for both Braun and Lucroy needs to include Espinoza and either Devers or Moncada. It's going to get old fast if the perspectives of GMs interested in Braun and Lucroy are anything close to that of these writers, because they're not even in the ballpark.

 

If they aren't willing to meet that price, so be it, we'll hold, but Stearns isn't going to let anyone take advantage of him just because he's a new GM and we're rebuilding.

 

There's nothing wrong with keeping Braun around for the next stage of the rebuild if there is no proper offer. Even if he's a 120 game player now, 120 games of a .900-1.000 OPS player is still very valuable.

 

With all that said, Braun isn't doing us many favors the last week or two with how much time he's missing. He needs to have a relatively healthy and productive June and July to be able to drum up the amount of interest it will take to move him before the deadline.

[RockCoCougars]

I probably posted this earlier in the thread, but if I'm the Brewers, I'm not offering one thin dime in salary relief for Braun. I'm also not taking back a bad contract in the deal. Chances are high that he'd be going to a big market team, no reason they couldn't take the remaining salary. I'd also expect a good return. If these criteria can't be met, may as well just keep him. Whoever put that Boston trade proposal on the fangraphs has zero credibility in my book. Sounds like something Red Sox homer Peter Gammons would propose.

[logan82]

I am not really concerned with the money in a Braun trade so much as the talent we get back. Even paying Braun's full contract we wouldn't be hamstrung as a franchise. If the other team pays him at least $10m a year we would come out really good.

[brewerfan82]

I probably posted this earlier in the thread, but if I'm the Brewers, I'm not offering one thin dime in salary relief for Braun. I'm also not taking back a bad contract in the deal. Chances are high that he'd be going to a big market team, no reason they couldn't take the remaining salary. I'd also expect a good return. If these criteria can't be met, may as well just keep him. Whoever put that Boston trade proposal on the fangraphs has zero credibility in my book. Sounds like something Red Sox homer Peter Gammons would propose.

What if team X gives you the following options:

 

1.) Team X takes on all of Braun's contract, no bad contract comes back to the Brewers, and the return is good

 

or 2.) Same deal, but if Brewers either take on some of Braun's contract or take a bad contract back in return, the return is even greater.

 

You wouldn't even consider the second option? With tons of financial flexibility right now, it seems silly not to try to maximize the talent you get in return in any trade.

[brewcrewdue80]

Mr. Allen. It's fine to pay some of Brauns contract. As well as add someone's contract to the team. But a contract like Pablo Sandovals or even Prince Fielder. Too long a term to take on. This year+next. A 3rd year+ on any contract taking on (such as Sandovals) is too detrimental to the recovery. I don't want 10million+ being wasted come 2018 and beyond. What ifs are around the corner.

[SRB]

Cameron knows his stuff.

 

I find Dave Cameron to be one of the least informed baseball pundits out there.

 

 

Cool

 

Thanks!

[trwi7]

Cameron knows his stuff. That article was just spitballing names.

 

In terms of stats and stuff like that, sure. In terms of trades and trade value? No, he's awful. He's the one that suggested Segura for Despaigne and Maurer last year.

[homer]

Cameron knows his stuff. That article was just spitballing names.

 

In terms of stats and stuff like that, sure. In terms of trades and trade value? No, he's awful. He's the one that suggested Segura for Despaigne and Maurer last year.

 

 

Not to derail the thread or defend Cameron but Segura was coming off a .246/.289/.326 year when he proposed that trade.

[bill hAll Star]

Mr. Allen. It's fine to pay some of Brauns contract. As well as add someone's contract to the team. But a contract like Pablo Sandovals or even Prince Fielder. Too long a term to take on. This year+next. A 3rd year+ on any contract taking on (such as Sandovals) is too detrimental to the recovery. I don't want 10million+ being wasted come 2018 and beyond. What ifs are around the corner.

 

I don't think this situation will come up, but I'd consider those deals assuming the other team is offering another good or great prospect.

 

The downside is you're possibly paying $60-80 million for an extra prospect (or 2) so maybe not. However, Attanasio probably would be OK with those guys in the context of basically being half of the team's $50 million payroll next year. I'm not even worried about payroll in 2018 or probably 2019. Extensions will kick in in 2019 or 2020 for someone like Hader if we buy out some arbitration years, for instance. We can hand out a free agent deal if we'd like to go that route.

 

All of that said, I'd say Texas and Boston in this example just sitting on the contracts and not offering more. They have the money...might as well see if Sandoval or Fielder turn it around and keep their extra prospects.

[trwi7]

Cameron knows his stuff. That article was just spitballing names.

 

In terms of stats and stuff like that, sure. In terms of trades and trade value? No, he's awful. He's the one that suggested Segura for Despaigne and Maurer last year.

 

 

Not to derail the thread or defend Cameron but Segura was coming off a .246/.289/.326 year when he proposed that trade.

 

And it still made no sense even with Segura being terrible considering the Brewers were also terrible and would be picking up an older, also awful pitcher and a youngish reliever. At that point, you just keep keep the SS and hope he improves.

[DHonks]

I don't agree with Mr. Allen. I'm generally not a fan of wasting valuable resources by paying Braun to be an all-star for another team. What's the opportunity cost of trading away Braun with cash? I only trade some cash if it's getting us a 5th/6th stud prospect. What hitters of his caliber have been traded? Ken Griffey, Jr., Miguel Cabrera, Gary Sheffield, mike Piazza, ARod?

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't agree with Mr. Allen. I'm generally not a fan of wasting valuable resources by paying Braun to be an all-star for another team. What's the opportunity cost of trading away Braun with cash? I only trade some cash if it's getting us a 5th/6th stud prospect. What hitters of his caliber have been traded? Ken Griffey, Jr., Miguel Cabrera, Gary Sheffield, mike Piazza, ARod?

 

There are obvious franchises that don't have payrolls above 100mil. In last 4 years: Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Florida, Oakland, Tampa, and Houston have not had their payroll over 100million.

3 of 4: NYMets, Colorado, Atlanta, and Arizona didn't.

 

That's 10 teams that by putting some money up on his contract, could open discussions towards making a trade. To Me, 2-4Million per year should result in the equivalent of late 1st round/top 2nd round talent if you're drafting. So 4.5years would be 9-18million in cash sent that I'd expect the cash to net me that prospect in return. You send more than 20million I'd better be getting a top of 1st round pick talent back.

 

The Astros and Mets were 2 of the teams rumored by that scout who made the list of buying teams on Braun. White Sox were another team who didn't exceed 100million payroll in 2 of last 4 seasons also in that mention.

 

So Say 15mil sent to these 3 I'd expect:

Houston: Joe Musgrove or Derek Fisher

NY:Wuilmer Becerra or Desmond Lindsay

ChW: Well, nothing impressive. Guess International signees Micker Adolfo or last years Franklin Reyes teens that offer promise.

 

Houston has the best to offer in return. But the fact Gomez is off to horrible start, and Fiers a #5's worth of stats, I'd wonder on Houston wanting to make another trade to Milwaukee.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's not hard to imagine that teams covet a player of Braun's ability, so it's no surprise there is interest in him.

 

But lets examine the what would motivate the Brewers to make a deal for Braun.

 

1. Pure salary relief. The speculation is that teams willing to take on his entire contract will not part with top of the line or even close to top of the line prospects. With the Brewer payroll already way down, I don't see that as enough to motivate Stearns to move Braun.

 

2. Quality prospect (s) with some salary relief. That's a more plausible motivation, as it holds promise for future payoff down the road, but still not all that attractive.

 

3. Getting the tank back into tanking. Lets face it, this year's team isn't all that bad as presently constituted (it would be better if they had held on to Davis but that's a different issue). In fact, it's pretty competitive to the point where a case could be made by any GM or owner who's not publically told it's fans to be patient, would make an effort to fill the holes on the current roster and make a run for 2017. But what does that do to the plans to be bad for the next 3-5 years and accumulate high draft picks? That's right it destroys those plans.

 

So if Braun is dealt, it'll be because the Brewers are too good with Braun. Oh they'll sell it as a move necessary for the "future", but the reality is it will mean more suffering for the present and near future. The real return for dealing Braun will be higher picks from 2017 to 2020.

[MrTPlush]

You aren't paying Braun to play for another team. You are paying to acquire prospects.

[tmwiese55]

If they trade him I have no problem chipping in a bit of money or taking back a year or two of bad salary if it means going from an OK package of prospects to a great package. Or essentially an upgrade from a good prospect (say a Phillips type) to a great almost can't miss type (like a Bryant or Seager). When you're payroll is under 50 mil the money doesn't matter.

[Warning Track Power]

Paying Braun right now is not an issue for the Brewers so why pay any part of his salary? To acquire Braun, perhaps the premier bat on the trade market, means paying in appropriate prospects without salary relief. If I am the Brewers and I am not offered prospects on par with Braun's talent, I will gladly pay him he isn't hamstringing the payroll and he isn't blocking a superstar prospect.

 

Furthermore, during the next 5 years, he could begin approaching some seriously promotable numbers that could continue to attract fans to the park during the rebuild. He is only 136 HR away from 400, 506 hits away from 2000, 624 RBI from 1500...all of which should be reached within the next 5 seasons.

 

I remain on board with keeping Braun for the duration of his contract unless someone is willing to pay the fair price to acquire his talent.

[MrTPlush]

I don't get this whole, "We shouldn't have to pay anything so if we have to forget it NO TRADE!" That seems a bit...foolish. If we are offered Swihart+ and have to pay $25mil we shouldn't? Then instead pay Braun $100mil and get no prospects to help with the future.

 

Id rather pay a little money and get some players for the next competitive team than watch Braun get paid $100mil to play on a garbage team.

[tmwiese55]

Plush nails it. Yes, of course you could trade without paying anything. The argument is simply that you can increase your return if you pay some of it. I don't see why it's a hard idea to grasp. If the extra they're willing to give us in a trade isn't worth then don't pay it, that's the whole negotiation.

 

I agree with WTP though, I don't see the need to force a trade so I'd want an overwhelming package and if getting that package means chipping in 20mil then so be it. If it's a so-so package that you're not even sure you'd want to do it, I'd just walk away or offer to chip in money in order to get the package to be enough to do it.

[adambr2]

I don't get this whole, "We shouldn't have to pay anything so if we have to forget it NO TRADE!" That seems a bit...foolish. If we are offered Swihart+ and have to pay $25mil we shouldn't? Then instead pay Braun $100mil and get no prospects to help with the future.

 

Id rather pay a little money and get some players for the next competitive team than watch Braun get paid $100mil to play on a garbage team.

 

If we are offered Swihart +, assuming the + includes no prospects greater than Swihart, we shouldn't be trading with Boston no matter how much salary they want us to eat.

[MrTPlush]

I don't get this whole, "We shouldn't have to pay anything so if we have to forget it NO TRADE!" That seems a bit...foolish. If we are offered Swihart+ and have to pay $25mil we shouldn't? Then instead pay Braun $100mil and get no prospects to help with the future.

 

Id rather pay a little money and get some players for the next competitive team than watch Braun get paid $100mil to play on a garbage team.

 

If we are offered Swihart +, assuming the + includes no prospects greater than Swihart, we shouldn't be trading with Boston no matter how much salary they want us to eat.

 

Really quick example. Insert any name you so desire.

[QuevedosTongue]

Has anyone heard anything about Braun's willingness to go anywhere? I know he has a no-trade clause that limits a deal to 6 teams. I assume those are west coast/desert area teams. I think the teams are set each year, so they can change, but do we know who he will accept a trade to without his permission right now?