Braun trade value now

[proudsoftballdad]

With Braun off to one of his better starts and if he stays healthy until the trade deadline has he now become a high trade assist WITHOUT having to buy back large portion of his contract? We all know Braun's health can change as fast as the weather in Wisconsin but for argument sake he stays healthy until the break and relatively on pace to his production has he become a trade target that could bring in close to or even succeed that of Lucroy? Please discuss

[MrTPlush]

A lot depends on him staying healthy. If he can keep up the high average and power without hitting the DL his value could really sky rocket come July.

 

Still it takes a perfect situation to deal someone like Braun. He is 33, half a year won't erase the injury concerns completely, and he is owed a lot of money. Even if he is producing to be well worth the approx. $20mil salary teams aren't so keen to trading for big salaries mid-season...or anytime period. Add in the age and injuries you need a perfect match to get a big return.

 

I just don't see him being traded. I am sure Stearns would send him packing pretty quick for a solid/worthy package, but would Attanasio really write off on such a move? Not so sure.

[superfly]

He's not getting traded. His salary is not really an unfair one, he's been here his whole career, and he's never not produced. Not to mention we're swimming in cash.

 

Minor point but he's 32...that's another season he's here with us.

[Boomer5]

To Braun's credit he has brought it big in a lost season coming off some injury issues.

 

Looking at how the prospects have under performed so far, it would be to the Brewers benefit to continue stocking the farm. Braun is a tremendous trade chip at this point at should be moved if the right deal comes along.

[JohnBriggs12]

He'll likely be very tradeable but the salary prevents the kind of return in talent that really is going to make a difference down the road. Oh they would get a decent prospect but we're talking about a guy, who if not for PEDs, is putting up a HOF worthy career. Getting back a guy who projects as a 3-4 starting pitcher or who's best case projection is average major league regular, is not fair value. For most teams unloading a big salary like Braun's is a huge part of the return, but this team's payroll is so low right now that shedding salary isn't or shouldn't be a top priority.

 

Braun might start to tail off in 2-3 years but he's still likely to be fairly productive through 2020. I assume they are planning on being competitive by 2018 or 2019 at the latest. No reason a Braun in his mid 30's can't still be contributing in a fairly big way. Then his salary will come off the books, enabling them to try and lock up the best of the young crop.

[Roderick]

...... Not to mention we're swimming in cash......

 

Which is why, when/if we trade Braun, I would assume the Brewers send a lot of cash with him to net that much better a haul.

[Jose Cardenal1]

How about a Pie in the Sky trade.

 

R.Braun and J.Lucroy to Nationals for

 

J.Werth (and his bad contract $21/year through '17)

L.Giolito

T.Turner

V.Robles

 

Yes that is their top 3 prospects and each a top 100 prospects. But your giving up two big time players and taking a bad contract back.

 

Added bonus: The addition of Braun and Lucroy to the Nationals should make them a really big obstacle for the Cubs the next couple years.

[MrTPlush]

Just because we are "swimming in cash" does NOT mean we should have a $20mil player just burn a hole in our pocket. Maybe you are forgetting, but baseball is actually a business...where you want to make money. If we aren't competing paying Braun $20mil is a massive waste of money. The money is a huge motivator to trade him and probably why Attanasio would want to sign off on such a deal.

 

I wish we knew what Attanasio thought of Braun...I always wondered if he secretly despised him for the whole PED scandal. He made his organization look horrible and not even a year after investing $100mil in him he destroyed the majority of his marketability. Which costed Attanasio lots of future revenue.

 

It is hard to say how likely it is for him to be traded if we don't know how Attanasio and Stearns view him.

[rwa12]

It is a business, which is why they have to keep some actual baseball players on the team. Braun is this team's Geoff Jenkins. The guy who is good enough to go somewhere else, but will be kept so that the fans have someone to cheer for. The $20 mil isn't a big deal in the grand scheme of things, I would guess there would be a pretty good decline in attendance from the common fan if they traded away our "superstar". I think for a Braun trade to happen, we would need a young star in return (already in majors). You can get away with trading Lind for mystery prospects, can't do that with Braun...or Lucroy for that matter. The fan base will need to see something tangible.

[Jose Cardenal1]

First, Washington would be taking on more in salary for '16 & '17 (and thereafter) than we would taking Werth's contract.

 

Second and more importantly is that having the ability to take on a bad contract is an asset that the Brewers have right now and for the next couple years. I am not saying they should take on a bad contract, only that it is a tool in the shed that not all teams have. It would be a mistake to dismiss it.

 

A trade like I mention has about a .01% chance of happening but the bigger point is the Brewers can and should get very creative to facilitate acquiring the players they want (not just the ones other teams are willing to give up).

[pacopete4]

Keep him. Let him play out his contract and be the "gritty vet" who is actually good with the new waive of talent in the upcoming years. I for one get sick and tired of seeing players go elsewhere. Those that want to tear Braun down for his actions are pathetic to me. There isn't one person on this earth that has lived a perfect life, treated everyone great, etc... but yet something like this happens and they should go to baseball hell forever. Hopefully he will be here and be a part of the next wave winning a world series.

[MrTPlush]

I am not buying the decline in attendance argument(at least a large one). We are a 100 loss type team...attendance can't really get much worse. Fans are not going to watch Braun. At this point it is to watch baseball regardless of who runs into the field. All you are going to do is tick off the fans already complaining and already not buying tickets.

 

When the team improves and starts competing there will be new superstars on the team to cheer for. Attendance will rise back up and you will have a "Ryan Who?" Sign. Holding onto Braun for the fear of a slight decrease in already low attendance numbers is a bad move. Fans already don't care...best time to move him.

[FVBrewerFan]

It is a business, which is why they have to keep some actual baseball players on the team. Braun is this team's Geoff Jenkins. The guy who is good enough to go somewhere else, but will be kept so that the fans have someone to cheer for. The $20 mil isn't a big deal in the grand scheme of things, I would guess there would be a pretty good decline in attendance from the common fan if they traded away our "superstar". I think for a Braun trade to happen, we would need a young star in return (already in majors). You can get away with trading Lind for mystery prospects, can't do that with Braun...or Lucroy for that matter. The fan base will need to see something tangible.

 

I have never agreed with this argument. The Brewers have lost many fan favorites over the years in FA, trades, retirement. There's always the next guy to cheer for. Attendance will have a ceiling and floor through the rebuilding years with or without Braun/Lucroy. During the summer months you have company picnics, bachelor parties, family outings, etc. These events won't be cancelled because Braun is traded.

 

Most fans go to Miller Park for the entire experience. I have never once heard anyone say "I'm not going to any more games because Prince is no longer a Brewer." Ultimately, winning and losing drives attendance. Trading Braun and Lucroy for players that will help them win games in 2020 is more important.

 

With all that said, as Tplush said, it will be difficult finding the right trading partner. Needs to be someone who really, really wants/needs a big RH bat. Then, it has to be a big market team that can take on his salary. Finally, it has to be a team that has the players available the Brewers want, and be willing to part with them. That's a lot that has to go right.

[And That]

Just because we are "swimming in cash" does NOT mean we should have a $20mil player just burn a hole in our pocket. Maybe you are forgetting, but baseball is actually a business...where you want to make money.

First, can the bolded part.

 

Second, as discussed a number of times previously, the primary motivator of the ownership is to increase the valuation of the franchise, not really to have the Brewers entity turn a yearly cash profit. In terms of taxes, it may actually benefit some member of ownership to have a loss. These are all rich dudes - I don't imagine they care that much about whether or not they're paying Braun $20 mil this year, as long as they get to sell an ownership stake for a 300% profit at some point in the future.

 

If Braun has potential value as a trade chip, it makes sense to wait until you're getting commensurate value back, or close to it.

[proudsoftballdad]

If he keeps his production at some were near this point his contract is or should not be an issue for any team in contention for the playoffs . The big question will be his value just like the opinion of this board his value will be all over the place among GMs .

[MrTPlush]

If he keeps his production at some were near this point his contract is or should not be an issue for any team in contention for the playoffs . The big question will be his value just like the opinion of this board his value will be all over the place among GMs .

 

It is an issue though. First of all how many contending teams can afford his contract in general? How many can take on some $8mil at the deadline? How many of those teams have the space to add approximately $16mil for next year and still fill holes?

 

After all that the list is pretty small and that is before even considering everything else non financial.

[tmwiese55]

Chances are you're never going to get a commensurate return for Braun and since you're team salary is currently nothing you can afford to keep him. My take is they should listen to offers in case something really blows them away but there's really no need to trade him so you don't have to force it.

 

For those saying we suck anyway, attendance will be down anyway and spending money on him only to lose is a waste. Yes, logically you're correct. However, the ownership likely feels and imo should feel the need to put a competent MLB team on the field. Much like they did this year, yes the team has no shot and will likely lose 90-100 games but they're competent and not an embarrassment to the fans or the league. Take the Sixers in the NBA as an example, you can tank for the #1 pick without losing by over 30 points most games and struggling to not break the all time loss record. Look how that's gone over? There's a level of pride/respect most owners have, so if you're not getting legit value back on Braun then might as well keep him for those reasons plus there's a good chance he'll still be a good player in 2018 when they're trying to win and if he stays here his whole career and rebounds his image as much as possible it's good for the Brewers using him in marketing beyond his playing career.

[And That]

Chances are you're never going to get a commensurate return for Braun and since you're team salary is currently nothing you can afford to keep him.

 

Probably true, though as the saying goes, it only takes one offer.

[MrTPlush]

If Ryan Braun goes into the break hitting at MVP levels, OPS over .900, average well over .300, and healthy I don't think it is that far fetched that a team would come calling with an acceptable package. I know he has baggage via injuries and age, but how often do controllable MVP type hitters become available? Ryan Braun can be a difference maker on a teams offense...not just some role player.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if they got a decent offer...but at this point it is impossible to even gauge the likelihood of it happening. We don't know how the trade market will take shape and if Braun can keep it up while being healthy.

[And That]

It also depends on the Brewers' internal analysis of Braun's future contributions to the club. If they think his back is going to give out before the end of the year, they'll obviously take a worse offer than if they think he'll be a 5 WAR player for the next 3-4 years. Besides the incoming offers being unknowable, the Brewers' own valuation of Braun is unknowable with any precision.

[FVBrewerFan]

Ironic that the Angels may be a good trade partner, since Braun is a Socal guy, they have plenty of money, etc. If the Angels are in the thick of it, I could see them being a player since they haven't been a factor for years. Only problem is, Angels would have to give us their entire farm system for Braun and that may not even be worth it.

[tmwiese55]

It also depends on the Brewers' internal analysis of Braun's future contributions to the club. If they think his back is going to give out before the end of the year, they'll obviously take a worse offer than if they think he'll be a 5 WAR player for the next 3-4 years. Besides the incoming offers being unknowable, the Brewers' own valuation of Braun is unknowable with any precision.

 

And along those lines their internal views of him being around the team going forward. Yes we're fans and we think we know but really we don't know anything. They actually do, they know if he gets along with everyone and if the other guys genuinely like him or whether he's a jerk at all. Seems to me just watching from afar there is no issues in this sense, but who knows, if he doesn't get along with people and is likely to be kind of a jerk (behind the scenes of course, he'll always say the PC thing in public) throughout the rebuild then yea they'll be more motivated to move him.

[And That]

Ironic that the Angels may be a good trade partner, since Braun is a Socal guy, they have plenty of money, etc.

The Angels are right up against the luxury tax and have stated that they are unwilling to break the threshold and pay the tax. IIRC, they only had a few million to spend as of the end of spring training.

[adambr2]

It is a business, which is why they have to keep some actual baseball players on the team. Braun is this team's Geoff Jenkins. The guy who is good enough to go somewhere else, but will be kept so that the fans have someone to cheer for. The $20 mil isn't a big deal in the grand scheme of things, I would guess there would be a pretty good decline in attendance from the common fan if they traded away our "superstar". I think for a Braun trade to happen, we would need a young star in return (already in majors). You can get away with trading Lind for mystery prospects, can't do that with Braun...or Lucroy for that matter. The fan base will need to see something tangible.

 

Does anyone really show up at the ballpark for Ryan Braun anymore? I am honestly wondering myself, I don't know. I'm over the PED scandal myself, but there's no way you can ever really recover from that to be a face of the franchise again. His best bet for people to move on is to keep quiet and just do his job, which he has been. I'm not sure how many families really show up at the ballpark just to see Ryan Braun anymore, and I'm not sure the Brewers even want to market him that way again.

 

Aside from that, I think the fans already going to games now have a pretty good idea for the most part about the direction for this franchise right now, and I doubt more than 1% of them are going to cancel their game plans because of Braun being traded.

 

If Braun has a star 1st half he'd be a pretty ideal unload candidate IMO for the right return.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't know if he's a jerk or not, but I do know he pretty much separates himself from teammates. He almost never hangs around in the clubhouse in spring training or the regular season. Either way, I doubt that has much of anything to do with the Brewers desire to trade him. This is a major decision in how they build the team for the future, and I can't believe they wouldn't pull the trigger is he was a nice guy.