Too early to judge... (Segura trade)

[And That]

Considering how Nottingham is playing I doubt either side is too happy at the moment.

Nottingham is doing just fine. I've seen maybe half of his ABs... he doesn't look over-matched, he doesn't look frustrated, he's striking out and walking at about career norms. He's just had absurdly bad luck as it seems everything he hits hard - and he is hitting balls hard - gets caught. He's also looked at least competent behind the plate and just last night he made a really nice throw to nab a runner trying to advance to 3rd on a wild pitch. Strike right on the bag.

 

And don't forget about Bubba Derby.

 

I imagine the Brewers are very pleased with the early returns, especially with how Santana/Braun are performing.

[danzig6767]

Look at Segura's April stats over the course of his career.

 

If you are wondering he hits over .300 in his career during April/May and then reverts to the scrub he is. I would expect the same until he proves otherwise. If you forgot he started off amazing last April too.

He does only have two walks so far. Hard to see him ever improving significantly in regards to taking walks.

 

That said, i did read an article about Segura lowering his hands during winter ball and him hitting the ball harder since. We'll see if he can continue hitting more doubles, triples, and homers like he did over the first half of the 2013 season. That's what was so exciting when he first arrived here.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/arizona-diamondbacks-jean-segura-getting-rave-reviews-041916

 

A rival executive sent me a text the other day raving about Diamondbacks second baseman Jean Segura.

 

“Segura looks unreal,” the exec said. “They may have made a great deal there. He lowered his hands and is hitting rockets everywhere.”

 

Segura, acquired in a five-player trade with the Brewers on Jan. 30, ranks 11th in the National League with a .957 OPS -- a marked improvement over his previous two seasons, when his combined OPS was .615.

 

When I asked D-backs hitting coach Dave Magadan if he had instructed Segura to lower his hands in spring training, his answer surprised me.

 

“He showed up to camp that way,” Magadan said. “He hit well from day one in the spring and I never questioned it. Just left him alone. He says it makes him feel like he's using more hands in his swing, less body.”

 

Segura, 26, indeed arrived with a plan, one that he devised over the winter in his native Dominican Republic at the suggestion of former major-league outfielder Luis Mercedes, who also has worked with Robinson Cano and Edwin Encarnacion.

 

“Now with my hands lower, I don’t have to go down and then go up to hit the ball. I go directly to the ball,” Segura said. “I do everything in one motion instead of doing it three times. When I attacked the ball with my hands up, I had to go down, go up again and swing.”

 

Mercedes also told Segura that it would be easier to for him to keep his hands inside if he held them lower.

 

“We did it every day for three months.,” Segura said. “To be honest, the first time I didn’t feel comfortable. He told me to use it and don’t change it.”

 

So far, the adjustment is working.

 

Through 13 games, Segura resembled the player he was in 2013, when he had a .752 OPS and 44 stolen bases in 57 attempts, a success rate of 77 percent. His stolen-base totals reduced to 20 and 25 steals the past two seasons, though his success rate remained at 75 percent.

 

The Diamondbacks restored Segura to the leadoff spot – he batted in various positions the past two seasons, and mostly second in ’13.To this point, he is the only D-backs player with more than one stolen base, going 3-for-4 in his attempts.

 

All this, while moving from shortstop to second base.

 

“These guys give me the trust to be the player I want to be,” Segura said. “They give me the confidence to run when I want, when I feel comfortable. They trust that I can be the guy I was three years ago.”

[brewcrewdue80]

Cool story Danzig.

Looking at Fangraphs and disecting. Very little has changed. Except a tick higher on flyballs vs groundballs. his HR/FB rate is 15%+ which is 3times higher than previous 2 seasons and more than double his career avg.

 

2 BBs and still paltry 2.8% bb/rate. This has a lot of signs as being a streak vs the standard. More luck involved that I'll reserve til 100games have been played to call non-luck.

[shanedog19]

What exactly was the point in trading for Anderson?

[MrTPlush]

What exactly was the point in trading for Anderson?

 

Definitely not to draw conclusions after 4 starts. Come on now...

[DHonks]

Anderson isn't a very good pitcher. We expected more of Davies than we expected of him. We traded for him for depth.

[logan82]

We traded for him for extra years of service time from our young pitchers.

[monty57]

We don't know how the trade was put together, so we can't just assume that we could just take the Wagner/Anderson part out and still have a trade. Both sides were trying to maximize what they received, and what we got is what we got. Anderson is good controlled depth for the Brewers while our prospects make their way to the majors and guys like Peralta move on. Wagner could be better than Anderson, or he could be a reliever. Anderson is at least proven that he can start at the MLB level for a full season, and there's some security in that. Even in early stages of a rebuild, you need to have a starting pitcher on the mound every day.

 

I'm happy for Segura that he's doing well, but it will have to continue for me to believe it's real. Regardless of what any of the other players involved in the trade do, what I'm really interested in is seeing how Diaz develops. If he continues to progress, he could be special.

[Thurston Fluff]

Like I said in another thread about this same topic, I'm not going to root for Segura and others to fail just so the Brewers end of the trade looks better. I hope he has a wonderful career.

 

The best case scenario is if both teams win on the trade (but especially the Brewers). Teams are more likely to trade with you.

 

Lets say the Astros need a catcher. If Gomez and Fiers are sucking, while Santana and the minors are doing great from our end, do we think the Astros would realistically want to trade for Lucroy and risk having another high-profile trade with Milwaukee blowup in their face?

 

I don't think it would have any impact on future trades at all. it isn't like the Astros didn't know anything about the players they got. The Brewers didn't hide any health concerns or something like that. The Astros wanted the players they got more than the ones they gave up. To blame the Brewers on their mistake, if indeed it turns out to be a mistake, would be silly. To not make a trade they like down the road because they screwed up in assessing the relative value of the players involved in the last trade seems really stupid.

The only time bad trade experiences matter is if one team hides something about a player or if there is some sort of bad faith involved. I could see the Brewers being hesitant about doing a trade with the Mets because they pretty clearly lied about a supposed injury to kill a deal. Even then if the Mets offered the most for a Brewer player I doubt the Brewers would take less because of it.

[FVBrewerFan]

You know, the story Danzig posted is bothering me the more I think about it. IF it's true lowering Segura's hands has made his swing better and more consistent, why didn't anyone on the Brewers staff figure that out?

 

We'll see if Segura can put up numbers close to this for an entire year before I get too excited. And, we really don't know if it's more psychological or if lowering his hands really has helped. But it does make me question what hitting coaches even do around here. (Or pitching coaches for that matter.) Are they really just glorified cheerleaders? Or use simplistic words of wisdom like "use the opposite field?"

 

Seems to me a hitting or pitching coach has two jobs. Figure out what the player can do mechanically and otherwise to improve results, and equally important get them to buy in and actually DO it. So it does bother me when someone suggests a simple adjustment to Segura, and it produces results when the Brewers had him for a couple years and never had him make that adjustment.

[jerichoholicninja]

You know, the story Danzig posted is bothering me the more I think about it. IF it's true lowering Segura's hands has made his swing better and more consistent, why didn't anyone on the Brewers staff figure that out?

 

We'll see if Segura can put up numbers close to this for an entire year before I get too excited. And, we really don't know if it's more psychological or if lowering his hands really has helped. But it does make me question what hitting coaches even do around here. (Or pitching coaches for that matter.) Are they really just glorified cheerleaders? Or use simplistic words of wisdom like "use the opposite field?"

 

Seems to me a hitting or pitching coach has two jobs. Figure out what the player can do mechanically and otherwise to improve results, and equally important get them to buy in and actually DO it. So it does bother me when someone suggests a simple adjustment to Segura, and it produces results when the Brewers had him for a couple years and never had him make that adjustment.

 

My first thought too was why didn't the Brewers coaches spot this? But Jean hasn't changed his approach at all which tells me that this hot streak is just that, a hot streak. We've seen him put together a few really good weeks before and than go back to putting up. horrible numbers. Raising or lowering your hands makes no difference when your MO is slapping at first pitch fastballs.

[Thurston Fluff]

If Segura lowered his hands during winter ball he was probably still with the Brewers when he started working on the change. That would lead me to believe it was the Brewers staff who suggested it.

[FVBrewerFan]

If Segura lowered his hands during winter ball he was probably still with the Brewers when he started working on the change. That would lead me to believe it was the Brewers staff who suggested it.

 

According to Segura, it was not. At least according to that article. It was a suggestion from Luis Mercedes.

[Ennder]

If Segura lowered his hands during winter ball he was probably still with the Brewers when he started working on the change. That would lead me to believe it was the Brewers staff who suggested it.

 

According to Segura, it was not. At least according to that article. It was a suggestion from Luis Mercedes.

 

Who has nothing to do with the Diamondbacks, this has nothing to do with the team he was on.

 

Chase Anderson is a real MLB pitcher, dissing him after his worst start of the year seems silly. He may not be an ace but he has some value. Diaz is a real prospect. We got a lot of value in this trade. I don't know if we won it but we definitely got some value.

[AKCheesehead]

Ennder I think you pretty much nailed it. A few people have been dumping on Anderson after his last start but bad starts happen. Judging a pitcher on his worst day is about like judging a pitcher on his best day.

 

I do believe that Segura's play might make some people regret the trade. I myself might be given to some of that thinking, I leaned high end on Jean and still tend to. I really think Arizona saw his potential and went with it, and I think Stearns knew what we had in him as well. Hopefully Diaz makes it a good trade. Obviously right now Diamondbackfan is liking it but as the thread says, too early to judge.

[jerichoholicninja]

Segura had a .645 OPS last week and .673 over the last two weeks. His career norms.

 

Let's not let a hot week think anything has changed with him.

[MrTPlush]

Segura had a .645 OPS last week and .673 over the last two weeks. His career norms.

 

Let's not let a hot week think anything has changed with him.

 

Yup... now his average will creep back down to earth and you will have a no patience, no power, and slap hitting SS who plays decent defense. I have heard some scouts give him some solid reviews, but the results have been the same. He just has some seriously inflated stats right now.

 

Even if he hits for a slightly higher average what does that make him? An average hitter to go with his average-ish defense? Unless he actually finds some kind of doubles power he is limited on offense even with a high average. I don't think that is going to upset many since most feel we got a pretty darn good return for Segura.

[CheezWizHed]

Anderson vs. Wagner

 

I personally saw this as us giving up more as a means for balancing out the Segura/Diaz portion of the trade. That isn't a knock on Anderson, just that I liked Wagner better. And its not that Wagner was special either.

 

I think Wagner has a bit more upside (a #3) and he hasn't started his arby clock yet. Anderson has a higher floor (he has already proven he is a MLB pitcher), but more like a #4/5 and fewer years of team control. I guess it depends on what you like...

[stoutdude04]

Segura had a .645 OPS last week and .673 over the last two weeks. His career norms.

 

Let's not let a hot week think anything has changed with him.

 

He did go 4 - 6 last night. Maybe the last two weeks were the outliers in this early season.

 

He probably hasn't changed, but if he has I am happy for him. As others pointed out. It seemed like he needed a change in direction as far as baseball is concerned and he was expendable for the Crew.