Article on Santana

[DuWayne Steurer]

Davis is doing exactly what he's always done, which is only hit homeruns. He has negligible on base skills, poor defense, an awful throwing arm, and he hits for low average. He has exactly one plus tool, and that's power. Not losing any sleep over him hitting homeruns in Oakland, and putting up a .3 WAR in a quarter season.

[pacopete4]

Yes, I'll echo the thoughts of many here already. I don't miss the player types of Khris Davis. Happy he is doing well because he seems to be a good dude but overall I could careless if he hits 50 this season. He doesn't get on base at a high enough clip to ever sustain success and he's a lousy outfielder. Getting on base consistently will hopefully help cure the streakiness of the Brewers offense. At least to some extent.

[Jenkins5]

Khris Davis has a .257 OBP. That's about 50 points below awful.

 

Have to remember Home Runs are shiny..... getting on base is dull. To some the fact that a player can't walk, hit, play defense, or do really anything else productive for a team doesn't matter if they hit home runs.

 

Nottingham can hit hit .160 and hold a higher OBP than Davis

[CheezWizHed]

I thought we would be rid of this broken record on Khris Davis after the trade, but the same song keeps playing.

 

Khris traditionally starts out cold. His career in March/April is: 232/281/384/665. If memory serves, he did the same in the minors. He started cold last year, then ended up hitting 247/323/505/828, which is about average for OBP and above average for SLG. He fields OF well, but a very weak arm. Overall, he is a pretty average starting MLB LF.

 

We drafted him, started him, and traded him at his peak. This gave Santana a chance to play regularly. And hopefully Nottingham works out and is our starting catcher for years.

 

Seems like things worked out for everyone. Not sure why there needs to be such a debate about it.

[Magnum44]

I think it is a reasonable debate to have. I am one of those in the camp that I'd have liked to see up keep Khris Davis.

 

He was our best power hitter last year by a wide margin. 27 HR in 392 atbats. In a "normal" year, without injury assuming 550 atbats, that shows up as 38 HR. I realize that it is never that easy to project like that, but he sure was our best hitter the 2nd half of the year. And, playing in one of the worst hitters' parks in the majors this year, he is already at 12 HR, 27 RBI in 147 atbats. Likely, on this team and in this park, he would have a legit chance at 50 HR. At least 40 for sure. You just don't find those kind of guys these days of diminishing power.

 

Now, let's look at his contract - important, because we know the Crew won't be competitive for a few years. Davis was not even eligible for full free agency until 2020. So, we could have had his services at a "reasonable" cost for 2016-2019. They sure as heck better be competitive well before then.

 

So, we moved one of the better power hitters in baseball to open a spot for Domingo Santana. At this point, we have a good idea of what Santana is - a decent OF, a little power, low average, with a TON of strikeouts. Yes, he is 23 years old so he COULD improve. But he has never had a strong prospect pedigree.. not even making the top 100 list by Baseball Prospectus in coming into 2015 (he had lost rookie status coming into 2016). I don't see a lot in his profile to make one think that he'll come close to the production of Khris Davis.

 

Santana now has 290 ML atbats. He has hit 11 HR. But he has struck out 122 times already. 42% of the time. This just doesn't project success. I'd rather have 390 atbats with 27 HR that Davis gave us last year.

 

Yes, we got Nottingham. Who has struggled in the early going. He has reached #66 on the BP list - not bad, but obviously not a top guy (yet?)

 

But I don't think the Crew trades Lucroy. They'd be crazy to. He is a perfect Milwaukee guy - and the type of guy you want to build around.

 

I think the Crew would have been much better off, this year and through 2019, in keeping Lucroy and not trading away Davis. Of course, if the organization doesn't feel that they can compete until 2020 at the earliest, then the trade makes sense.

 

I do get a kick out of folks dissing Khris Davis and his strikeouts and ignore all his HR he hits and they say "he sucks". Of course, Davis only struck out 31% of the time - so he is a contact hitter compared to Santana.

 

 

Yet Santana strikes out 42% of the time and people say he is going to be a great hitter and they like him better than Davis. Strange.

 

I guess sometimes people just like to see change, even if it means watching a worse hitter. I know some people will say "what about OPS!"... yea, Davis crushes Santana in that too.

 

You can debate if Davis would have been our future, sure, but certainly Santana is not. Even Trevor Story, a noted strikeout guy, is only doing it 35.8% of the time. And Story has pop in his bat and plays an important defensive position.

 

Bring Back Davis!

[CheezWizHed]

Welcome Magnum and great first post.

 

The main concern with Khris was his age, not his contract. Yes, he is under control until 2020, but he is already 28 also. Yes, he has great power, but he also has a long swing that doesn't project well for him in aging. And if you look at his overall production (offensive and defensive), he is really only an average LFer.

 

If you look back in our minor league forum, you'll see that I was one of the bigger Khrush supporters as he was coming up. But I realize his limitations too. A great 6th round draft pick, a good and fun player to watch coming up, a good player for a few years at the MLB level, and a good trade at his peak value.

 

I don't know what to make of Santana yet. He has less power, more Ks, more BBs, better OBP, better defense. This is his first full year in the MLB, so I wouldn't expect his best yet. I expected a 750 OPS type player this year and just like when Khris broke in, some patience will be required. I think he can make himself a 800-850 OPS player in the future with better defense. Its way to early to say he doesn't belong. Neither Ks nor HRs are the indicators I'm watching. Production comes in multiple varieties and good players aren't all one type of production either.

[monkeyman343434]

I think it is a reasonable debate to have. I am one of those in the camp that I'd have liked to see up keep Khris Davis.

 

He was our best power hitter last year by a wide margin. 27 HR in 392 atbats. In a "normal" year, without injury assuming 550 atbats, that shows up as 38 HR. I realize that it is never that easy to project like that, but he sure was our best hitter the 2nd half of the year. And, playing in one of the worst hitters' parks in the majors this year, he is already at 12 HR, 27 RBI in 147 atbats. Likely, on this team and in this park, he would have a legit chance at 50 HR. At least 40 for sure. You just don't find those kind of guys these days of diminishing power.

 

Now, let's look at his contract - important, because we know the Crew won't be competitive for a few years. Davis was not even eligible for full free agency until 2020. So, we could have had his services at a "reasonable" cost for 2016-2019. They sure as heck better be competitive well before then.

 

So, we moved one of the better power hitters in baseball to open a spot for Domingo Santana. At this point, we have a good idea of what Santana is - a decent OF, a little power, low average, with a TON of strikeouts. Yes, he is 23 years old so he COULD improve. But he has never had a strong prospect pedigree.. not even making the top 100 list by Baseball Prospectus in coming into 2015 (he had lost rookie status coming into 2016). I don't see a lot in his profile to make one think that he'll come close to the production of Khris Davis.

 

Santana now has 290 ML atbats. He has hit 11 HR. But he has struck out 122 times already. 42% of the time. This just doesn't project success. I'd rather have 390 atbats with 27 HR that Davis gave us last year.

 

Yes, we got Nottingham. Who has struggled in the early going. He has reached #66 on the BP list - not bad, but obviously not a top guy (yet?)

 

But I don't think the Crew trades Lucroy. They'd be crazy to. He is a perfect Milwaukee guy - and the type of guy you want to build around.

 

I think the Crew would have been much better off, this year and through 2019, in keeping Lucroy and not trading away Davis. Of course, if the organization doesn't feel that they can compete until 2020 at the earliest, then the trade makes sense.

 

I do get a kick out of folks dissing Khris Davis and his strikeouts and ignore all his HR he hits and they say "he sucks". Of course, Davis only struck out 31% of the time - so he is a contact hitter compared to Santana.

 

 

Yet Santana strikes out 42% of the time and people say he is going to be a great hitter and they like him better than Davis. Strange.

 

I guess sometimes people just like to see change, even if it means watching a worse hitter. I know some people will say "what about OPS!"... yea, Davis crushes Santana in that too.

 

You can debate if Davis would have been our future, sure, but certainly Santana is not. Even Trevor Story, a noted strikeout guy, is only doing it 35.8% of the time. And Story has pop in his bat and plays an important defensive position.

 

Bring Back Davis!

 

I completely agree with you, if we are talking about a Home Run Derby, lets forget about defense, on base percentage, average, OPS... you know, the important parts of actually winning a game and not a Home Run Derby.

[tmwiese55]

Good solid post. The argument would be this, at the same age Khris Davis split time between A and AA as far as I can tell. This guy was destroying AAA at age 22. The hope is that he'll end up a better player than Khris. And they feared Khris would regress a bit in the next 2-3 years as he reached age 30 and would rather cash in his trade value now than risk it drying up. We'll see.

[reillymcshane]

Khris Davis was a decent player on a bad team. His age and skills simply didn't align great with Milwaukee's 'future' - which I think the club projects around 2019. By that time, other players will likely surpass his value. It just comes down to 'why hold onto a player during a rebuilding phase.' It's the same argument with Lucroy, Braun, etc.

 

I hope he does great for Oakland. He seems like a good guy. I also hope Nottingham and Derby end up part of our next playoff team.

[Outlander]

I completely agree with you, if we are talking about a Home Run Derby, lets forget about defense, on base percentage, average, OPS... you know, the important parts of actually winning a game and not a Home Run Derby.

He did address the OPS, OBP is in Santana's favor, Santana hasn't shown he is any better defensively than Davis. Age of course is on Santana's side as well.

[DHonks]

Interesting to point out that Santana was not a Top 100 prospect. Why not point out the Davis was never a Top 100 prospect. When in A-Ball, people said he couldn't hit in A+. In A+ they said he couldn't hit in AA. In AA they said he couldn't hit in AAA. In AAA they said he'd never be more than a marginal MLB player.

 

I don't get the notion that Santana won't hit for power. Last year he showed very good power. So far this year it hasn't been there. But if we based Davis on the 1st half of '15, we'd say he had little power as well.

[DougJonesChangeUp]

It seems like Santana is mixed up on what approach at the plate he is comfortable with. He is getting higher OBP with a shortened lead step and more controlled swing this year. However, his power numbers are down. I'm a little back and forth. I don't know if he should go back to his style last year, but you can tell Santana isn't totally comfortable and is having some discomfort with the new mentality, imo.

[reillymcshane]

Interesting to point out that Santana was not a Top 100 prospect.

Just a note: Domingo was listed by MLB Pipeline as the #71 prospect in baseball prior to 2015. BA or BP didn't have him in the Top 100. So, not a great prospect, but he was on some peoples radar.

[JohnBriggs12]

Khris Davis has 36 home runs in his last 454 plate appearances. He is one of the premier power bats in all of baseball. He is in his prime and cheap. Brewers sold too low. Way too low and Santana is a replacement level or worse corner OF.

[ZBTMP]

Khris Davis has 36 home runs in his last 454 plate appearances. He is one of the premier power bats in all of baseball. He is in his prime and cheap. Brewers sold too low. Way too low and Santana is a replacement level or worse corner OF.

 

Domingo is 23 and now branded as a replacement level or worse outfielder? What would you have called Nelson Cruz after his first 330 ABs at age 26?

 

Unfortunately, Davis has shown the ability to do nothing, nothing at all, besides power well and his plate discipline has significantly fallen. We are a quarter of the way through the season and Davis is on pace for between 1.2(fWAR) and 2 (bWAR) season in his prime. How much more do you think his value is going go up?

 

How much did it take to acquire Mark Reynolds or Chris Carter? Maybe Davis figures the other aspects of hitting better than those guys did, but the odds are against him still.

[pacopete4]

People get too caught up with two things. Strikeouts and dingers. They make judgements based on those two things alone and that is just not a great way to place value on a player. It can help you, but it is not the only factors people should be looking at.

[tmwiese55]

One guy is replacement level and mediocre while making the bigs at age 22. The superior player was still A+ at 22. Yea, no way Santana will improve beyond his first 3 months in the big leagues, players never do that...

[adambr2]

Khris Davis has 36 home runs in his last 454 plate appearances. He is one of the premier power bats in all of baseball. He is in his prime and cheap. Brewers sold too low. Way too low and Santana is a replacement level or worse corner OF.

 

So he's basically Chris Carter with a worse OBP and defense.

 

This angst over Davis /Santana is baffling to me. Santana is 23 and developing. His power and defense haven't been what we hoped, but his plate discipline has. He'll come around.

 

Davis is exactly who we thought he was. While his power is attractive, the lack of any other skills including plate discipline and defense make him as much of a liability ad an asset in an everyday lineup.

[MoreTrife]

Yeah, Santana is the prototypical player that needs to be given a long leash to develop in a season like this.

[Outlander]

So he's basically Chris Carter with a worse OBP and defense.

No, Carter is worse defensively. Why is the defense of Davis continually brought up when guys he is compared to are just as bad or worse.

[adambr2]

So he's basically Chris Carter with a worse OBP and defense.

No, Carter is worse defensively. Why is the defense of Davis continually brought up when guys he is compared to are just as bad or worse.

 

Sorry, I should have more accurately said 'roughly the same defensive effectiveness'. Doesn't change the point that Davis and Carter have remarkable similarities in power, defense, OBP, and age, and Carter was acquired for nothing.

[danzig6767]

Davis is hard to figure out when it comes to his walk rate. In the minors he had a career .389 OBP.

 

Then in his time with the Brewers, how often he took walks was so up and down. In 2014 he only took 32 walks in 500 at bats, yet last year he drew 44 walks in 392 at bats. So far this year he only has 5 walks in 150 at bats.

 

Davis is proving to have elite power, but to be a more productive overall hitter, he just needs to walk more like he did last year.

 

As for Santana, my only disappointment so far is the lack of power. I expected more home runs.