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Following 2014-15 (Now Ex-) Brewers, Both Major & Minor Leagues


Mass Haas
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It's one that still gnaws at me. In 2014, Marco Estrada was on his way to setting the all time record for HR allowed in a season, when he was removed from the rotation to make room for Jimmy Nelson who at the time was dominating at AAA. Now after a few promising starts, Nelson struggled to a 2-9 record with an ERA just under 5, and the team collapsed in the final 5 weeks scuttling a division lead and a playoff appearance. Estrada, meanwhile, was shuffled to the pen where he eventually righted himself to the point where he didn't allow a run in 16 1/3 innings in the final month.

 

Still, nobody batted an eye including me when Estrada was shipped off to Toronto for Adam Lind to solve the Brewer 1B problem that many saw as a prime reason for the 2014 collapse. Now while Lind performed to expectations, the team and particularly two veteran starters making substantial salaries failed miserably, leading to the ouster of the manager, and the decision to essentially dismantle the roster that just a year before was 19 games over .500 and 6 1/2 games in front in the division as late as June 28th. Lind's time on a Brewer team that was actually trying (albeit with little success) to compete, amounted to about 5 weeks and he was dealt after the season for 3 teenage arms that didn't have a full season between them under their belts.

 

Estrada meanwhile went on to a stellar season in 2015 and another solid one in 2016 and is now poised to start the first game of the ALCS. One wonders if they'd have dealt Lohse for Lind instead where this franchise would be and where in fact would be the Blue Jays.

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Haven't been able to find out the source of the change, whether it was a suggestion from the Toronto coaching staff or something Marco decided to do on his own, but Estrada added a cutter once he got to Toronto which has helped him immensely.

 

Wondering "what if?" is one of my favorite pastimes but in this instance I think there are too many variables at play to really consider that trade anything but a success based on the information available when the deal was made. I don't think there were too many posters at the time predicting Estrada would be post a top 20 ERA in MLB over the 2015-16 seasons.

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I made many posts during Marco's last year here showing his numbers were equal to or better than Gallardo's career at the time but for some reason many posters just latched on to the homeruns allowed and lack of velocity.

 

With Toronto his FIP, K/9, and BB/9 are actually worse than with Milwaukee. His homeruns are down a little but his H/9 have dropped 1.5. Somehow all of that has translated to almost a full run drop in ERA in Toronto and a 30 improvement in ERA+. I'm sure team defense has helped those numbers but it seems to me he's a guy who was doing good things and improving but management just didn't want him as evidenced by his constant jerking from rotation to bullpen.

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