Junior Guerra stretched out as starter (Latest: shut down for season to protect arm, post 35)

[Greenleaf1]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/tht-live/why-you-cant-subtract-fip-from-era/

 

It might be indicative of some luck, but it's not at all unreasonable to think that Guerra could be in the 3.20-3.50 ERA next year. Is it as good as this year? No. Is he our next ace? No, but I definitely wouldn't have ever argued that he was going to be.

[sveumrules]

There's surely some luck in Guerra's ERA/FIP differential but he has also induced a higher than league average number of infield fly balls which is a trait often displayed by perennial FIP beaters such as Chris Young, Marco Estrada, Hector Santiago, etc.

 

He's also produced a very low HR/9 rate (0.74 for Guerra vs 1.25 for a league average starter) though he doesn't have enough IP to determine if that is flukey or hopefully a repeatable skill moving forward.

[Ennder]

LOB% of 79.4% which clearly isn't sustainable.

 

BABIP of .250 which isn't sustainable. Especially considering the high 33.8% hard contact he is giving up.

 

His xFIP is a full 1.50 higher than his ERA which screams fluke.

 

If I personally had to project him next year giving him the benefit of the doubt I would place him at like a 3.70 ERA and that is assuming some of what looks lucky is a skill which some pitchers do display sometimes. I'd be more surprised by a 3.30 ERA than by a 4.50 ERA though.

[FVBrewerFan]

He will be 32 to start the year. No, this won't last, but ride the train as long as he's close to this good. Who knows, he may be able to put up a 3.50 for a couple more years. There's value in that as they're rebuilding.

[MrTPlush]

No it isn't sustainable...not even close. But he has enough room to regress that he could still be serviceable enough to trade for something of value. Considering we got him for nothing that sounds great.

 

Actually I feel Stearns will trade him this winter, but that is just my hunch. Wouldn't be surprised either way.

[Ennder]

No it isn't sustainable...not even close. But he has enough room to regress that he could still be serviceable enough to trade for something of value. Considering we got him for nothing that sounds great.

 

Actually I feel Stearns will trade him this winter, but that is just my hunch. Wouldn't be surprised either way.

 

And I fully support this. He could be a surprise like 3.60 ERA starter who came out of nowhere and has value and we trade him high which would be great. But the serious reality is he is more like a 4+ ERA backend guy who nobody wants to pay for and just had one great year for us and added almost nothing else.

[Mr Southpaw]

I would project a 3.20 era with a 35% chance he blows out his elbow next year. A winter trade would be good a mid season trade after a closely monitored spring would be better.

[bork]

I would project a 3.20 era with a 35% chance he blows out his elbow next year.

 

That's my thought as well. Regardless of age, it seems that guys who have a huge jump in innings end up hurt the next year (Fiers, Cravy). Guerra has gone from 87 innings to 160+.

[1992casey]

Junior's older, though. The innings jump should hopefully be less of a factor than it'd be for guys who are under 26 or so.

[djoctagone]

the club has deemed that junior guerra has reached his innings pitched limit and has shut him down for the season. he has recovered from his album injury and should enter 2017 healthy and ready to pitch.

[monty57]

If they are bowled over with a trade offer, then certainly trade him this offseason. Otherwise, hold onto him until next deadline, when a lot more questions (both about him and the team in general) will be answered.

[Roderick]

If they are bowled over with a trade offer, then certainly trade him this offseason. Otherwise, hold onto him until next deadline, when a lot more questions (both about him and the team in general) will be answered.

 

I think if someone offered a trade where they valued Guerra like someone that has two more ultracheap good (~3.75era for 175 innings) seasons left in the tank, he would be gone in a second.

 

I don't think other teams would value him like that, so he will be back. But if you are a team that has to count the pennies, he would be awfully enticing.

[MrTPlush]

If they are bowled over with a trade offer, then certainly trade him this offseason. Otherwise, hold onto him until next deadline, when a lot more questions (both about him and the team in general) will be answered.

 

I think if someone offered a trade where they valued Guerra like someone that has two more ultracheap good (~3.75era for 175 innings) seasons left in the tank, he would be gone in a second.

 

I don't think other teams would value him like that, so he will be back. But if you are a team that has to count the pennies, he would be awfully enticing.

 

I think his value could be a lot higher than some might think. Everyone thinks "unproven and old", but then again look at Rich Hill. We could have a similar player in hand right now that brings back a nice haul at the deadline next year or heck even this winter. Guerra's stats aren't as flashy as Hill had last year, but still a pretty solid season. Wouldn't be shocked if we got a really nice prospect for him if a team wants hi this winter or if he keeps it up till next July.

[TooLiveBrew]

The Brewers are in an interesting position with Guerra. While I think it's clear they should sell high this offseason, they obviously don't have to. His value is hard to determine. But given his velocity & production this season, I'd want to see at least one top 50 prospect coming back for him.

 

Even though I think most GMs will be of the mentality that they want to see Guerra perform for more than 120 innings, I think there's going to be a market for him with that sub-3.00 ERA. I'm looking at you, Dave Stewart!

[LouisEly]

LOB% of 79.4% which clearly isn't sustainable.

 

BABIP of .250 which isn't sustainable. Especially considering the high 33.8% hard contact he is giving up.

 

His xFIP is a full 1.50 higher than his ERA which screams fluke.

 

If I personally had to project him next year giving him the benefit of the doubt I would place him at like a 3.70 ERA and that is assuming some of what looks lucky is a skill which some pitchers do display sometimes. I'd be more surprised by a 3.30 ERA than by a 4.50 ERA though.

I really wish that people would stop making definitive statements based off of past performance; it's a good indicator of future performance, but it does not reflect whether people are making adjustments and improving. And references to league averages are exactly that - averages; whenever you are dealing with averages there will always be players above and below the mean who don't regress to the mean. And FIP/xFIP isn't an exact science either.

 

I also wish people would look at league performance. Even if Guerra is a true 3.70 ERA performer, this year among the 65 NL pitchers with at least 100 IP that would rank 25th, or a #2 starter. A #2 starter - you don't think that has a lot of value in the trade market? It would be better than Gerrit Cole, Jeff Samardzjia, Zach Grienke, Gio Gonzalez, Wainwright, Wacha, Nola, and Archie Bradley.

 

Let's stop acting like a 3.70 ERA means you're mediocre, because that is far, far from the truth.

[monty57]

The main reason I don't generally like adding guys in their 30's is that they start to regress during the years that they are making a lot of money. In other words, you are usually signing them to a big money free agent deal or contract extension, and paying for their prime year performance when they're past their prime and have a lot of wear-and-tear on their bodies. That's not the case with Guerra, who is still pre-arby for two more seasons. There is no huge rush to trade him unless you think he is going to crash and burn and you want to snooker someone out of some top prospects before that happens.

 

That said, there is still a lot of concern about him, as there would be about anyone who was not on anyone's radar who suddenly had a great year as a 30-something. Because of that, if someone offered a top 50 prospect (as TLB mentioned), I'd take that deal in a heartbeat. But that may also be the reason teams would not be willing to trade us a top 50 prospect. In that case, I'm happy to put him back in the rotation next season. If he continues to perform, his trade value would increase substantially, or an even better case would be that with him pitching that well, and others performing, we could be a much better team that isn't looking at trading someone in his 2nd year of arby who has back-to-back ~3.00 ERA seasons.

[MrTPlush]

Did you mean 2nd year of pre-arby? Guerra isn't arbitration eligible until the 2019 season