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Junior Guerra stretched out as starter (Latest: shut down for season to protect arm, post 35)

djoctagone

By djoctagone,
in Milwaukee Brewers Talk

djoctagone Carolina Mudcats

djoctagone

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fans should take note that junior guerra started tonight's game against aaa memphis and pitched six innings, surrendering two runs and striking out eight.

 

it's a curious move to see him stretched out as a starter, but it makes sense when you consider that the brewers bullpen only has two players with options, whereas three of the current four-man rotation can be optioned (and likely four of the five if zach davies takes the fifth spot).

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CheezWizHed Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

CheezWizHed

Brewer Fanatic Contributor
Posted
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If he gets a shot, its most likely to keep Jorge from coming up early. Davies is the first SP up, but if they don't want to crack the seal on the young guys service time, then we might see him.

 

Probably not significant otherwise.

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MrTPlush Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

MrTPlush

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Might have to do with keeping Lopez down and the other thing could be to have someone not as important to go up and down all the time. Having Davies come up for an extended time is fine, but when you only need someone for 2 starts or so it doesn't really make sense to bring him up.
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FVBrewerFan Carolina Mudcats

FVBrewerFan

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Might have to do with keeping Lopez down and the other thing could be to have someone not as important to go up and down all the time. Having Davies come up for an extended time is fine, but when you only need someone for 2 starts or so it doesn't really make sense to bring him up.

 

Agreed, nor does it make sense to start the clock on Lopez. If Guerra can keep this up, yet another somewhat valuable trade chip.

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MrTPlush Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

MrTPlush

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Fact he is throwing 99mph is interesting to say the least since he was working at 91-94mph last year. Then he is old...weird. He was caught for PEDs once...just throwing it out there.

 

Hopefully we get a story on the added velocity.

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  • 2 months later...
brewerfan82 First Round Pick

brewerfan82

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Old or not, we have lots of team control with the guy, so just set his price tag to what you think his potential is (I'm guessing as a mid rotation starter to fill in a rotation?) and if someone offers a trade valuing him as such, take it, if not, don't. There's a realistic risk in him having no value if you hold onto him and he becomes a fluke, so if someone makes an offer valuing him at what you think he may establish himself as, then you go for it. Otherwise, if teams are valuing him as a AAAA player, you're not likely to lose much if you just hold onto him and he flops.
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sveumrules Carolina Mudcats

sveumrules

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I will say this, the fact that Junior Guerra (a 31 year old former catcher who was out of affiliated baseball for multiple years) is the best pitcher on this team is probably thee MOST "Milwaukee Brewers" thing of all time.

 

I will also say this, that split nasty.

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QuevedosTongue College Ball

QuevedosTongue

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I will say this, the fact that Junior Guerra (a 31 year old former catcher who was out of affiliated baseball for multiple years) is the best pitcher on this team is probably thee MOST "Milwaukee Brewers" thing of all time.

 

I will also say this, that split nasty.

 

Even better, he's the best they have and it's not close. Frankly, the fact that they are sitting better than last year at the mid-point of the season, even after Peralta and Jungmann imploded, is impressive. Junior has been a revelation.

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  • 2 months later...
pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

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It doesn't feel like a fluke anymore. Ace next season? I sure hope so. Fun story to follow!
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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Ennder Carolina Mudcats

Ennder

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It doesn't feel like a fluke anymore. Ace next season? I sure hope so. Fun story to follow!

 

If you look at his deeper stats it screams almost certainly a fluke. If I had to project him for next year and I had to round to the nearest run I'd go with a 4.00 ERA over a 3.00 ERA.

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pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

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It doesn't feel like a fluke anymore. Ace next season? I sure hope so. Fun story to follow!

 

If you look at his deeper stats it screams almost certainly a fluke. If I had to project him for next year and I had to round to the nearest run I'd go with a 4.00 ERA over a 3.00 ERA.

 

Care to provide further detail? There are not many guys who are below 3.00ERA guys. I'm not sure anyone is suggesting he is but I don't feel as though he's a fluke in terms of being a quality starting in the major leagues.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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Greenleaf1 Draft Eligible

Greenleaf1

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Guerra's BAbip is .250, FIP is 3.70, which are not indicative of all THAT much luck with his current production this year. Plus he may be 31 years old but he's still a rookie and has the potential to improve on things he's done this year with more experience.

 

I do think that due to his age he's probably not going to make it to free agency in 5 more years and still be a great pitcher though.

 

My guess is that people looking to trade for him would be hoping for a strong #3/#4 pitcher making the league minimum for two more years, and if he doesn't work out then you would just non-tender him. There's a huge amount of value in that assessment, with plenty of potential for more if he continues to succeed against the odds.

 

However, I don't think that projection fits well with the Brewers rebuild, so I would be looking to really maximize the return we could get for him. If he continues to pitch this well for another half a season, then trade deadline 2017 seems like the best time to trade him. However, if we get a great offer for him this offseason I would definitely take it. We have enough young pitchers coming up in the pipeline (not to mention 6 or 7 who are already competing for starts at the major league level as it is), that we'd be dealing from a position of relative depth and turning a 31 year old rookie waiver claim into legitimate prospects would be an opportunity too good to pass up in my opinion.

 

Meanwhile I'll just continue to pray every time he pitches that he doesn't have a massive blow up and give up 8 ER, or worse, blow out his shoulder from throwing that split-fingered fastball.

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