BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2016 Pre-Season Edition

[And That]

He would be in Center at Louisville if he was a legitimate CF prospect.

Many legitimate scouting sources have said that he has at least a decent chance to stick in CF as a pro. That you tried to deny it even after I showed you the proof is baffling to say the least. That he didn't play CF in college, therefore he can't play CF in pro ball is a tenuous connection at best. I'll defer to the experts, personally.

 

its completely irrelevant because he wont be playing CF in Milwaukee, Maverick will.

You keep stating your own forecasts/projections as fact. They're not facts.

[FVBrewerFan]

Again, its completely irrelevant because he wont be playing CF in Milwaukee, Maverick will. Therefore we drafted a corner OF no matter how you want to look at it.

 

You're assuming Phillips is the long-term solution in CF, which is a pretty big assumption at this point.

 

As for Ray, all that matters is whether he can hit. He may or may not develop defensively into an avg or above avg CF, nobody knows that. But even if he doesn't, if he's a legit MLB hitter, I don't care where he plays.

[MrTPlush]

Brett Phillips has not swung one bat at the MLB level. Heck he hasn't even seen AAA pitching and we are penciling him as the long term CFer? Wow

[Outlander]

There are still question marks regarding if Phillips can stick in CF in the majors so I certainly wouldn't rule out Ray as a potential future CF.

[Brewerswillsurprise]

Not sure I understand the conversation, Phillips has in fact seen MLB games during Spring Training. He saw several games during SP with the Astros over a year ago and hit I believe a few HR's. Many analysis state he has one of the best arms in the entire game right now period. Those also looking at his B/A and K's (I'll agree could be better for him) but look at the other stats which really tell the true performance HR's Triples, SLG, OPS He's in the top 10 or so for the entire league. Not sure what more you want from him. He's MLB ready now and you will see him by September. The only reason to move him to right is who ever plays CF will not have as good a arm as Phillips so it would make sense to move him to RF where the strongest arm technically should be.

[nate82]

If you are going to be evaluating a player based on stats in the minors then you need to take that information and comb through them thoroughly.

 

You need to look at where the player is playing. A hitter in Brevard is going to have troubles with hitting for power and a pitcher in Colorado Springs is going to have problems giving up extra base hits that are normally outs in other AAA parks.

 

Another thing about stats is that it only tells about 1/3 of the story of the player. Scouting reports and what the player is working on in the minors tells the rest of the story. To me Medeiros has a ceiling of a top of the rotation pitcher will he ever make that ceiling probably not but he does have a high ceiling though his floor is really low. This is the problem with drafting based on potential if you hit you have a hall of fame type player and if you miss you have someone that doesn't even contribute to your team or does so only at a fraction of what they could have been.

 

The same thing with Coulter, Taylor, Gatewood, Clark and Harrison. All of them could be All Star caliber players or they could be major league regulars. The nice thing about all of these upside players is that they are all extremely young still. Only Taylor and Coulter are 22 the rest are either 20 or younger. I am not going to get all that concerned over these players until they reach the age of 26. If they haven't figured it out by then then I will be concerned and call them busts but not until then. All of these players have a lot of ceiling left in them and it is going to take time for them to mature into the players they will become. Not every player is going to be a Trout or Harper and rise through the minors quickly.

 

Even players like Weeks and Braun took time to reach the majors. It took Weeks three years before he made it to the majors and that was probably a year to early for him. He should have been in the minors for one more year and the Brewers should have just stayed with Spivey until Weeks was fully ready. Prince took 4 years to make it to the majors and Braun took 3 years. I don't believe any of the players the Brewers have in the minors now are as advanced as Prince, Weeks, or Braun but they do have the ceiling that these players had when they were coming up in the minors. The biggest difference is that the floor of Weeks, Prince, and Braun was not as low as the players currently in the Brewers minor league system.

 

As for Ray I am going to say this again he is very similar to Jackie Bradley Jr. and when he was drafted I wasn't all that high on him and I thought along with my friend who is a scout that Bradley wouldn't make it as a CF in the majors. Well we were wrong and it looks as though Bradley is playing a passable CF for the Red Sox. I firmly believe that Ray's ceiling is that of Bradley which is an every day starting CF.

[Austin Tatious]

Braun was drafted in 2005 and hit 34 homers in Milwaukee in 2007. I didn't double check all your facts to see if there were additional errors. Braun roared through the minors as you expect a top five college bat to do. That's the track Ray will be on. Ray will likely be in double A next year, and should be able to rake there. Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman are in double A now after being 2015 high picks. Ray will likely be in LF in Miller Park by June 2018.

 

Princie was out of high school so he'd be on a slower pace, although the wait for his massive upside was worth it.

[Austin Tatious]

 

If he was a CF he would have been playing CF in college, not RF.

.

 

You can only discern anything from where Louisville played him is if you thought the Cardinals CF they did play during the season wasn't that good defensively. Then you could question why Ray wasn't played there and wonder if that meant a deficiency on his part.

 

But Louisville could easily have a guy that was a better defensive CF, they were a top team during the year, that doesn't mean that Ray also couldn't end up being an average MLB CF.

 

Ray didn't play in CF because he struggled getting good jumps on the ball from the center field vantage point. It's something he can improve on with experience. He also lacks a strong arm. He may be passable in center in the end, but right now there are significant doubts. You can say, it's not proven he can't play center. It's like proving a negative. The more appropriate analysis is that he hasn't prove he can play center. The burden is on Ray to show it before it can be accepted he can. But no one is arguing he's an excellent center fielder. It's more a matter of whether he can get by.

 

Either way, he should be a solid hitter and tremendous base runner. But hiding both Ray and the young Trent Clark in LF will not work so something has to click.

 

The other poster is right, though, in that Phillips can defend at a high level in center. He's the opposite of Ray. Phillips will defend but is he going to be much more than a bottom third of the order bat? Ok average and ok run production in double A. Long way to go with the bat.

[nate82]

Braun was drafted in 2005 and hit 34 homers in Milwaukee in 2007. I didn't double check all your facts to see if there were additional errors. Braun roared through the minors as you expect a top five college bat to do. That's the track Ray will be on. Ray will likely be in double A next year, and should be able to rake there. Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman are in double A now after being 2015 high picks. Ray will likely be in LF in Miller Park by June 2018.

 

Princie was out of high school so he'd be on a slower pace, although the wait for his massive upside was worth it.

 

2005 2006 2007 = 3 years of minors not actual time in the minors.

[Austin Tatious]

Fair enough. I understand your point. We can agree to disagree whether to be patient until 26 for most players. At some point of development, if they don't bite as pups, they don't bite. 26 is old for a rookie by most standards and while there may be the occasional kid that age that the light switches for, I wouldn't set that as any bar. If Coulter and Taylor are still hitting .230 in the Minor's at age 25-26, they'll likely be with another organization.

[nate82]

Fair enough. I understand your point. We can agree to disagree whether to be patient until 26 for most players. At some point of development, if they don't bite as pups, they don't bite. 26 is old for a rookie by most standards and while there may be the occasional kid that age that the light switches for, I wouldn't set that as any bar. If Coulter and Taylor are still hitting .230 in the Minor's at age 25-26, they'll likely be with another organization.

 

The average age of a MLB rookie is 24.4 years old or at least it was the last time I checked. So no 26 is not old for a rookie by most standards. Plus if you are coming up as a rookie at the age of 26 which would be perfect for Milwaukee as that player is going to be very inexpensive for their prime years. Meaning once the player hits free agency in their 30's you can just let them go.

 

Hitting .230 in the Minors and hitting for power will keep that player in the organization. Teams don't give up on players who hit with power no matter what their batting average is. Take Carter for example and countless others. If the player is just hitting .230 with no power and poor defense then yes they will more than likely be gone.

[Austin Tatious]

26 is a couple of years older than 24. It's not even remotely the same thing. 24 is not bad; 26 is. I'm fine disagreeing here. A kid that isn't good enough before 26 is typically a borderline guy. That's not my aim. I want impact players. You're 26 as a rookie then you take your lumps for a year or two in the majors and now you're 28.

 

You can get some at 24 because college kids come into pro ball at 21 and can take three years. Everybody understands that. On the other hand, high school kids would be in year eight by age of 26. You can't linger that long without getting on a 40 man roster, so your team will be under pressure for that spot. A kid like Coulter is going to hit make or break time next year. He's really lingering. He's got the rest of this season and next year to show something.

[1992casey]

I'd say that 26 is old to be considered a prospect but not necessarily old to be a rookie.

[CheezWizHed]

Agreed. I'm sure there are some late-bloomer exceptions, but most 26 yo rookies won't be impact players. Maybe become a nice complementary piece, but not an impact guy.

[Eye Black]

Three Brewers prospects listed in Baseball Prospectus' BP Top 50, their ranking of the best mid-season prospects (note: recent draftees and international signings are excluded from this list).

 

7. Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers

Why He'll Succeed: The high-contact approach translates to a top-of-the-order bat to pair with good speed and exceptional defense.

 

Why He Might Fail: If his aggressive approach is exploited by more advanced arms, it could culminate in a glove-dependent profile that doesn’t get on base enough to avoid the bottom third of an order

45. Josh Hader, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers

Why He'll Succeed: Hader has two pitches that can give big-league hitters fits: A mid-90s fastball that has plenty of life, and a slider that is a true swing-and-miss pitch with its tilt and depth.

 

Why He Might Fail: The change is still in the developmental stages, the command and control both leave a lot to be desired, and his mechanics scare the heck out of many.

49. Brett Phillips, CF, Milwaukee Brewers

Why He'll Succeed: If gains in power and approach that he made at Double-A stick around, it turns him into an above-average offensive weapon with an impact arm in center.

 

Why He Might Fail: If his laugh cascades around the rafters of Miller Park, it could touch off a seismic event that dislodges the beer slide and initiates a Rube Goldbergian series of events that drowns Bernie Brewer, knocks the sausage-race Brat unconscious, and leads to a pitchfork-wielding mob chasing him to Sheboygan, where he’s last seen jet skiing off across the dark waters of Lake Michigan.

[Jenkins5]

Isan Diaz is really vaulting himself with Diplan as top 10 locks for me. Tyrone Taylor starting to save his stock. Gatewood walked twice other day (increasing total 20% in one game) & has really been turning it on. Diaz's bat is really getting exciting. I don't think the .300 average .400 obp, and .900+ ops is a fluke at all.... Kid just barrels everything up & smokes ball. Great eye at plate as well.

[Austin Tatious]

When are we doing our mid-season rankings? Maybe after the trade deadline?

[Austin Tatious]

Isan Diaz is really vaulting himself with Diplan as top 10 locks for me. Tyrone Taylor starting to save his stock. Gatewood walked twice other day (increasing total 20% in one game) & has really been turning it on. Diaz's bat is really getting exciting. I don't think the .300 average .400 obp, and .900+ ops is a fluke at all.... Kid just barrels everything up & smokes ball. Great eye at plate as well.

 

 

Agree. I'm a big fan of Diaz. The slow start threw me off but slumps, funks, adjustments, are part of baseball. He can provide a nice boost offensively for a middle infielder.

[MrTPlush]

When are we doing our mid-season rankings? Maybe after the trade deadline?

 

Yes

[reillymcshane]

When are we doing our mid-season rankings? Maybe after the trade deadline?

 

Yes

Plush is correct. With all the trade possibilities, we felt waiting until the deadline was the wise thing to do. If we did it now, for instance, a trade next week could screw up a bunch of votes. It just isn't worth it.

 

So we'll wait until August 1. I'll make the voting phase pretty tight - a week or so - so we have a 'mid-season' poll completed as earlier as possible.

[logan82]

August might be interesting this year as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see some guys traded after going trough waivers.

[reillymcshane]

August might be interesting this year as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see some guys traded after going trough waivers.

Braun is a guy who could potentially be an August trade.

 

Teams might not have the room salary-wise right now, but perhaps by late August, when he's only owned $2.5-3.0M for the rest of the year, they might bite.

 

Baggage, salary, injury issues aside, Braun is an exceptional bat. There won't be a lot of them available in July - and especially not in August.

[Eye Black]

Minor League Ball is doing their own mid-season top prospect countdown. They are only down to #51 so far and Brett Phillips is the Brewers only listing at this point (surely more to come).

 

57. Brett Phillips, OF, Brewers

 

Phillips' star has waned just slightly in the first half, as his K-rate sits north of 30%. The bright side is the whiffs are about the only thing standing in the way of a promotion. Phillips combines unquestioned defensive ability with a max-effort style that ensures he gets the most out of his tools.

 

Phillips deserves a pass for his slow start because he's restored his power stroke, added some walks, and appears to be working with a new approach in his second trip through AA. MLBFarm has the centerfielder flicking eight of his 11 HR this season to left, a year after registering just one oppo job. His next stop would be Colorado Springs in the PCL, where Phillips could get the last laugh over those who doubted him.

[Eye Black]

More of the mid-season prospect countdown from Minor League Ball, this time #31-#50.

 

35. Josh Hader, LHP, Brewers

 

Two of Hader's five PCL outings so far have been rather rough, but it's important not to penalize him yet considering the environment and his overwhelming stuff.

 

Hader is pure hell on batters, as he drops to a low three-quarters slot on the 1B side and slings it across his body to create ample deception. Both his velocity (92-94, t97?) and command have made huge strides since coming over in the Bud Norris trade, improving his outlook for at least the middle of a rotation. If he can continue to stay healthy and refine offspeeds while staying consistent with his funky delivery, he could even be a strong #2.

[reillymcshane]

Minor League Ball gets to their Top 30 in their mid-season countdown.

 

Arcia comes in at #13.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/7/18/12210910/top-30-midseason-mlb-prospects