BF.net Fan Community Top 25 Prospects - 2016 Pre-Season Edition

[reillymcshane]

I think we are going to see some significant movement in the mid-season poll. Quite a few upper level guys having tough years coupled with some of the younger guys making some strong steps will produce some shake ups.

 

It's tough to see guys like Taylor and Coulter - former #2 and #3 in our original community poll - potentially dropping out of the list all together.

[Outlander]

I'm not even sure the Brewers add Taylor and Coulter to the 40 man after the season, which I would have thought impossible probably a year ago.

[Jenkins5]

I have a feeling Coulter will get hot soon and up his stock. Think if he started in AA, he wouldn't have struggled as much in Biloxi. Still think potential is there too much for Coulter.

[reillymcshane]

I have a feeling Coulter will get hot soon and up his stock. Think if he started in AA, he wouldn't have struggled as much in Biloxi. Still think potential is there too much for Coulter.

I wish they had put him at Biloxi. It would have done him good to get out of the FSL.

[Eye Black]

Available at this LINK, Roster Resource has released their updated current top 200 MiLB players (based on 2016 season performance thus far), and a Brewers prospect has claimed the top spot.

[reillymcshane]

Just a note about the mid-season Top 25 poll. As of this time, I'm going to wait until the trade deadline to do the next poll. I think there are too many potential trades involving Milwaukee - it's best to let the dust settle and wait and see what happens.

 

We'll plan on doing the voting the first week of August, and get the mid-season poll up shortly thereafter. It's a little later than I prefer, but it's better than doing the thing in middle of trading season, which I expect Milwaukee to be involved.

[Boomer5]

I dont know if this is the right thread for this question, but where would you all rate the performance of the Brewer's farm system in 2016? Have they gone up or down in organizational rankings to date?

 

I have only seen a few games on TV and havent attended any, so all I have to go on are the stats and the outstanding Link Report.

 

My opinion is one of being VERY underwhelmed save Hader and the Diplan/Peralta combination. Even Arcia hasnt been terribly good with the bat like I had hoped, especially in Colorado Springs. Ditto Phillips.

[JohnBriggs12]

I have a feeling Coulter will get hot soon and up his stock. Think if he started in AA, he wouldn't have struggled as much in Biloxi. Still think potential is there too much for Coulter.

I wish they had put him at Biloxi. It would have done him good to get out of the FSL.

 

I don't think you can excuse a sub .600 OPS from a player who'll soon be 23 on the league he's playing in. It's A ball and he's repeating. He's a major disappointment. Can't think the new regime is going to stick with underperformers from previous regime too long.

[TheCrew07]

My opinion is one of being VERY underwhelmed save Hader and the Diplan/Peralta combination. Even Arcia hasnt been terribly good with the bat like I had hoped, especially in Colorado Springs. Ditto Phillips.

 

Generally I don't get as high on prospects (like Hader for example) or as low (Medeiros) as most other posters. I hope that everyone performs well but I'm not going to get really bent out of shape if they don't, I'm mostly concerned with a mix of talent and results. Josh doesn't compare favorably with the best pitchers in the game from a stuff standpoint any more than Kodi does to the stiffs in A+ with ERAs approaching 6 like his.

 

Too often posters want to evaluate prospects with metrics the same way they would MLB players, but that's not realistic and never has been. Every league and step up offers a slightly different approach and when you take someone like Arcia he's facing fringe MLB pitchers for the first time, many of whom get by on moxie more so than stuff because pitchers that have stuff and are performing well are never long for AAA, they move up to MLB ASAP. These pitchers truly capable of exploiting a hitter's weaknesses and once the pitching adjusts, can the hitter make the counter moves necessary to maintain success? He's already faced the fireballers on the way up, now he's facing the other side of the coin; Shawn Marcum, Mike Fiers, or Marco Estrada types who don't have a blazing FB but a plus pitch or 2, or maybe even just average to above average stuff but know how to get hitters out. Contrary to popular belief, Arcia wasn't patient and selective from the start, he didn't strike out much because he has the unique ability to be able to put horrible hitter's pitches in play. For players like him on that fine edge between being selective and over aggressive it's not surprising when they fall back a little.

 

I guess what I'm saying is that the context matters as much as the performance, I'll go back to Medeiros. Last year Kodi got by basically being unique, he wasn't pitching down in the zone even though his GB totals would suggest that, it was his movement that caused hitters to swing over his FB and top them into the ground. The difference in A+ is that those easy outs from A ball no longer exist, the hitters are just better, and all it takes is 1 extra good hitter per team to get a hit after a walk and Kodi is going to give up more runs. The margin of error at every level of baseball is so finite, but gets progressively more so as a player moves up. For pitchers the strike zone gets progressively tighter as they move up, there is a noticeable difference in the consistency and quality of umpires from A ball to AA, and it's not all that hard to spot if you watch enough games. Most posters should be able to pick up on A ball umpiring issues just from watching the various T-Rat highlights which are posted in the Link Reports. Honestly that sort of thing shouldn't even be a surprise as umpires only move up to the next level if they are good enough to do so, just like any baseball prospect. Back to Medeiros it's not like he's a worse pitcher now than he was then, he's just basically the same pitcher with the same skill set pitching against better competition. I questioned whether or not that skill set would play at higher level without significant location improvement so I remain unsurprised the by the early results this season.

 

Too often it appears posters will over exaggerate how gifted a player is based on a pre draft scouting report and/or draft position, and many of us will get caught up hoping a player has broken out (like i did last year with Coulter) because we grow to like a particular prospect. In fact, after watching and/or listening to 80% of the T-Rat broadcasts every year I struggle because there are players I really enjoy on a personal level (like Luis Aviles on this year's team) who probably don't have the skill set to be an every day MLBer, but go about their business in such a way I just can't help but have a soft spot for them. Coulter was a terrible C and I didn't cut him any slack there, but he has legit power and the coaches repeatedly raved about his attitude so I grew to be very fond of him on a personal level, and rooted hard for him to succeed. However if you look objectively at what he's done he had 2 years were he started fast and then sputtered through the majority of the season, and in the rest didn't really ever get it going. It seems that for whatever reason he's slow to shore up a weakness at the plate and even when he was hot in WI he swung through too many good hitter's pitches.

 

I think over all the talent level has vastly improved, but that bar had been set awfully low. Do I look around and see many potential impact MLB types? Not really no, but I've been consistent in that opinion for a long time, so I'm not disappointed in a player like Phillips. I believe that maturation is a process, and every player is going to have a somewhat unique curve, so I'm willing to let the process play itself out either way. I am however extremely patient, so I end up taking a much longer view on most subjects than many of my fellow posters here on this site.

[WV Brew]

Coulter missed time this year with an oblique problem. For all we know, he was playing most of the year with that. According to the Fort Myers broadcaster, the book on Clint is hard stuff in, which would be pretty standard against power hitters. If he isn't connecting with Yost as a hitting coach, maybe the Brewers should get another guy down there to help.

[CheezWizHed]

Too often posters want to evaluate prospects with metrics the same way they would MLB players, but that's not realistic and never has been.

 

I'll raise my hand as being guilty of this, but mostly, its all I have to go on.

[Boomer5]

Too often posters want to evaluate prospects with metrics the same way they would MLB players, but that's not realistic and never has been.

 

I'll raise my hand as being guilty of this, but mostly, its all I have to go on.

 

And Id add that yes, having a 900 OPS makes it easier to evaluate. I dont see enough games to know that a guy who is pitching poorly is actually improving because all I see are the box scores.

 

I am still very high on Arcia and while I do get that he is facing a more advanced pitcher, at some point he does have to hit better. Certainly at the MLB level he will be facing better pitching both on stuff and brains. Same with Phillips. I dont see any other impact bats down in the minors right now, but maybe Ray is the guy?

 

Kodi just doesnt look like anything but an interesting bullpen arm. I just saw an underslot reach so we could take the two sandwich guys who have also been underwhelming. We have all discussed the 2012 first round picks.

 

At some point, these guys need to become "must watch" talents or we will just bring up a bunch of Scooters and Krush who are ok but we need the next Braun and Fielder.

[TheCrew07]

Boomer's Ray comment reminded me of something I should have pointed out earlier.

 

Even though I might not like a pick on draft day and will lament when the players I wanted who were available at that pick are performing better at the same point in their careers, that doesn't mean I don't like Medeiros or Ray. Once a player is drafted, he's one of "my guys" and I want desperately to be proven wrong, which is one of the reasons I toned down my draft commentary this year.

 

I think it's extremely healthy for fans to be excited about the team's prospects, and the success of those prospects is absolutely necessary to the Brewers, so I don't want to cast players I'm not super high on at a moment in time for any number of reasons in a negative light. On the draft forum I was simply arguing against extremism which was popping up... this player sucks why did we draft him... or this player has the potential to steal 40 bases because I like the pick... or Jungmann/Peralta is performing well at MLB so they are a budding ace... I believe in finding that realistic middle ground and setting the bar at that position because as soon as the conversation turns toward performance extremes the debate becomes centered on hyperbole. Furthermore comparing any prospect at any point in his MiLB career to any Hall of Fame player is the very definition of straw man argument. So few players become HOF or even All-Star caliber that there's really no legitimate reason to ever make that kind of comparison.

[Boomer5]

I am not a big fan of Ray, just to be clear. He doesn't scream elite hitter to me and he doesnt project to be a CF. As a slot guy, not a great use of that pick, but time will tell.

[CheezWizHed]

What makes you think he can't stick in CF? Everything I've read says he has the speed.

[And That]

Ray has the requisite speed, but he may or may not have the instincts to play there. After playing mostly corner OF in college, he'll have to prove he can make the more difficult reads in center.

 

I don't think it's correct to say he projects as a corner OF, though he also doesn't have a firm hold on center either. Like a lot of young players, that part of his game is TBD.

[CheezWizHed]

I always thought the reads in cf were easier because you were more straight on.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't know, it's still about numbers in MiLB. Impact players rarely struggle coming up through the various levels. Braun, Fielder, Yo, Sheets, Weeks, etc. marched through without much of a hiccup.

 

Sure, a guy can struggle a bit and end up being a really good MLB player, but those are exceptions. This season has been incredibly disappointing to me. Nobody has broken out, and virtually every top prospect is struggling. But, there's still a lot of games to be played.

[And That]

I always thought the reads in cf were easier because you were more straight on.

That can work against you on line drives. You also have to be able to break more quickly in center and to either side. That's the question about instincts that Ray will have to answer.

[Boomer5]

Ray doesn't project as a CF because he isn't a CF based on the scouting reports. Yes he is fast but so was Lonnie Smith. I'm not trying to be argumentative but the reports say good bat, good speed, corner OF.

 

But ultimately, the point is moot because if he advances like a college bat picked 5th should, he will up around the time Phillips will and he isn't going to be better in center than Phillips.

[And That]

Ray doesn't project as a CF because he isn't a CF based on the scouting reports.

Incorrect.

 

Scouts seems almost evenly divided over whether he's a solid average to tick-above-average center fielder or a future left fielder.

Though he has spent most of his career at Louisville in right field, Ray runs well enough to play center field and should get a chance to play there in pro ball, though some scouts question his instincts.

His defense still needs some polish but he runs well enough to handle center field with more reps; his arm is a tick above-average.

And despite playing left field both last summer (Florida’s Buddy Reed patrolled center) and this spring, there’s plenty of optimism that he’ll be able to play center at the next level, only further enhancing his overall future potential as he shows top-of-the-line athleticism and closing speed to either gap.

[Boomer5]

Ray doesn't project as a CF because he isn't a CF based on the scouting reports.

Incorrect.

 

Scouts seems almost evenly divided over whether he's a solid average to tick-above-average center fielder or a future left fielder.

Though he has spent most of his career at Louisville in right field, Ray runs well enough to play center field and should get a chance to play there in pro ball, though some scouts question his instincts.

His defense still needs some polish but he runs well enough to handle center field with more reps; his arm is a tick above-average.

And despite playing left field both last summer (Florida’s Buddy Reed patrolled center) and this spring, there’s plenty of optimism that he’ll be able to play center at the next level, only further enhancing his overall future potential as he shows top-of-the-line athleticism and closing speed to either gap.

 

??? All those say he isnt a CF.

 

If he was a CF he would have been playing CF in college, not RF.

 

The Brewers are an organazation that once played Kotsay in CF and Yuni, well anywhere, so anything is possible. But no, Ray is not an ideal CF by even the reports you just posted.

[And That]

??? All those say he isnt a CF.

None of those say he does not project as a CF. It ranges from BA's at worst "equally divided" to Sickles explicitly saying he can play there.

 

The Brewers are an organazation that once played Kotsay in CF

That has nothing to do with this.

[Roderick]

 

If he was a CF he would have been playing CF in college, not RF.

.

 

You can only discern anything from where Louisville played him is if you thought the Cardinals CF they did play during the season wasn't that good defensively. Then you could question why Ray wasn't played there and wonder if that meant a deficiency on his part.

 

But Louisville could easily have a guy that was a better defensive CF, they were a top team during the year, that doesn't mean that Ray also couldn't end up being an average MLB CF.

[Boomer5]

He would be in Center at Louisville if he was a legitimate CF prospect. I have no idea why you guys would fight that, but what ever floats your boat.

 

Again, its completely irrelevant because he wont be playing CF in Milwaukee, Maverick will. Therefore we drafted a corner OF no matter how you want to look at it.