2016 Milwaukee Brewers Positive Post Thread

[QuevedosTongue]

Adam Lind currently has a negative WARP, so the Brewers are winning that trade, even without figuring in Chris Carter's production.

[brewmann04]

Nelson is our best pitcher at this point and he is a solid #2 and we will be fine with a bunch of those type of pitchers it is very hard to find a true ace remember that the O's gave up on Jake

[Thurston Fluff]

Therefore, if the new regime decides to pick up a $20M+ player, it would likely be a starting pitcher.

 

$20 million in 2018 is going to get us a fine mid rotation starter.

[pacopete4]

Therefore, if the new regime decides to pick up a $20M+ player, it would likely be a starting pitcher.

 

$20 million in 2018 is going to get us a fine mid rotation starter.

 

Two another Suppan, Lohse, Garza on the way.

[monty57]

Therefore, if the new regime decides to pick up a $20M+ player, it would likely be a starting pitcher.

 

$20 million in 2018 is going to get us a fine mid rotation starter.

 

Hence the "+"

 

If you want to argue semantics, then feel free to read the aforementioned post as "if the new regime decides to target a higher profile free agent, it would likely be a starting pitcher."

 

I do not know how inflation will affect player salaries over a two year period. It is a very small time frame, but it seems that the recent surge (which seems to have had a much larger effect on front line guys than it has on mid-tier guys) have occurred largely due to a few big market teams getting huge TV deals. If there are more big market TV deals hitting in the next two years, then the trend could continue. If there are not more huge deals on the horizon, then I would expect the rate of inflation to flatten somewhat.

 

Teams get more money, they use it to outbid the other guys for players. In an auction environment with a fixed number of teams and a fixed number of roster spots, naturally a huge one-time increase in expected revenue will result in a huge one-time increase in salary, but as the revenue stream flattens, so will salary (until the next bump up in revenue). This will continue as long as teams are able to negotiate their own TV deals, as long as the TV deals continue to increase substantially, and as long as the number of MLB players remains constant.

 

As to the Brewers, in 2018 the only contract they are obligated to is Braun's $20M, $5M of which is deferred. Everyone else will either be arby or pre-arby. They could realistically have a payroll under $40M, and if they trade guys like Braun and Peralta, they could have a payroll under $30M!

 

If we assume even a small inflation increase for the team, they should be able to handle a payroll in the $110-$120M range, so put whatever number you want on the price of a good free agent, they should be able to handle it. I fully expect that once the foundation is set, Attanasio will have no problem writing big checks to a couple of front-end guys, and as long as Stearns is allowed to continually add talent to the farm, we should have plenty of money to pay them.

[TURBO]

Monty, you just got me all pumped up!

 

The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades!

[monty57]

Monty, you just got me all pumped up!

 

The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades!

 

And that's what this positive post thread is all about :-)

 

Honestly, I'm enjoying this season much more than the last few, and it's because I can finally understand the strategy and believe it will bear fruit. I take this year for what it is, a time to audition some players at the MLB level while the future Brewers get "seasoning" in the minors. Hopefully we will get some pleasant surprises like Gennett and Carter have been so far, and we will add a few more bricks to the foundation so we can build on it through the additions from the farm and free agency so in the not-too-distant future we will be back in the playoff mix, only this time with a mindset that the farm is our lifeblood, and not just a place from which to trade.

[brewmann04]

like what Carter and Braun has brought to the table

[AdvantageSchneider]

Our playoff odds have only decreased 1% since the start of the season. Thank you fangraphs.

 

Changes In Playoff Odds So Far

AL Team Change in Odds NL Team Change in Odds

White Sox 30% Nationals 12%

Royals 14% Mets 7%

Orioles 14% Pirates 4%

Mariners 11% Cubs 3%

Athletics 9% Rockies 0%

Rays 4% Cardinals 0%

Red Sox 2% Phillies 0%

Rangers -4% Braves 0%

Blue Jays -6% Brewers -1%

Tigers -6% Diamondbacks -1%

Angels -6% Reds -1%

Indians -7% Dodgers -2%

Twins -8% Padres -2%

Yankees -9% Marlins -8%

Astros -37% Giants -11%

[BarneyStinston]

I can presume that the Brewers odds were about as low as they get in the first place. Once the glass is nearly empty, the last few drips cling to the bottom of the glass. Evaporation to nothing is a slow process, even with if the glass tumbled over or is upside down. Therefore, expectations won't get worse.

[MadScientist]

Colin Walsh has an OBP 280 points higher than his BA. Small sample, but it's still a crazy number. If he could just reach the Ueker line, he'd probably have the best OBP in the league.

[SomewhereInTime]

Colin Walsh has an OBP 280 points higher than his BA. Small sample, but it's still a crazy number. If he could just reach the Ueker line, he'd probably have the best OBP in the league.

 

His .053/.333/.105 slash line is hilarious

 

a couple more walks and he'll have that OBP over .400!

[TooLiveBrew]

The talent that this current team possesses for me is a very clear cut above what's been run out there the past couple seasons. I'm enjoying watching, win or loss. Like others have said, the club has a very clear direction & vision, which is also extremely rewarding for me to watch game in & out.

[logan82]

It is nice to be a fan of an organization that has a lot of talent spread throughout the whole system. This year is a nice change from the last 4 when we had a depleted minor league system and a middling at best MLB team.

[hawing]

Stepping back a couple of games, I appreciated that the Brewers kept trying when they were *thisclose* to being no-hit Friday night. It would have been easy to give up.

That they went from 0-6/thisclose to zero hits, to "winning run at the plate" at the end of the ninth was more impressive yet, not to mention entertaining.

 

(You could argue that a near-no-hitter by the likes of Adam Conley+ doesn't belong in the positive post thread, but my belief is that other than a few rare, N. Ryan or Verlander-type arms, no-hitters are largely random.)

[JohnBriggs12]

Monty, you just got me all pumped up!

 

The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades!

 

And that's what this positive post thread is all about :-)

 

Honestly, I'm enjoying this season much more than the last few, and it's because I can finally understand the strategy and believe it will bear fruit. I take this year for what it is, a time to audition some players at the MLB level while the future Brewers get "seasoning" in the minors. Hopefully we will get some pleasant surprises like Gennett and Carter have been so far, and we will add a few more bricks to the foundation so we can build on it through the additions from the farm and free agency so in the not-too-distant future we will be back in the playoff mix, only this time with a mindset that the farm is our lifeblood, and not just a place from which to trade.

 

I see a team that if it had 4 decent starting pitchers to go with Nelson could be competitive right now with all but the elites in the NL, Washington, Chicago, and NY. The odds of ever getting to their level are long no matter how much young talent is acquired, but one would think finding 4 competent starting pitchers between now and when the bulk of the talent arrives, doesn't seem all that insurmountable provided they don't continue to sell off their productive players to do so. One or two, or maybe 3 might already be in the system. I never bought the idea that you had to be awful for multiple seasons to build a contending team from within. I still don't.

[FVBrewerFan]

I see a team that if it had 4 decent starting pitchers to go with Nelson could be competitive right now

 

Isn't that sort of like saying it would be warmer out today if the temperature was higher? You say "just add 4 decent starting pitchers" as though it's no big deal. If they had that, or could easily get there, then of course the rebuilding wouldn't take long, or be as painful.

 

Problem is, of course, we're seeing how difficult it is to find ONE of those guys, much less four. Actually, you need more than four since it's pretty rare to make it through a season with just 5 SP logging 90% of the starts.

 

I will agree though that multiple horrible seasons aren't necessary. Hopefully this year is the bottom. Next season they could start improving, or maybe be about the same as this year W/L wise. But starting in 2018, yes, I expect them to start rising. They don't need to be awful for 4 or 5 years.

[monty57]

I see a team that if it had 4 decent starting pitchers to go with Nelson could be competitive right now with all but the elites in the NL, Washington, Chicago, and NY. The odds of ever getting to their level are long no matter how much young talent is acquired, but one would think finding 4 competent starting pitchers between now and when the bulk of the talent arrives, doesn't seem all that insurmountable provided they don't continue to sell off their productive players to do so. One or two, or maybe 3 might already be in the system. I never bought the idea that you had to be awful for multiple seasons to build a contending team from within. I still don't.

 

I think we are much further ahead in our rebuild than Chicago or Houston were when they started their respective rebuilds, so I agree that it shouldn't take nearly as long for it to bear fruit. A big reason we are "ahead of schedule" is that we were willing to trade away some valuable chips for prospects.

 

This season is a necessary "audition year." As to pitching, we are probably going to cycle through a lot of our "fringy" prospects to see if any of them stick. If some of the Jungmann, Davies, Guerra, etc group can become serviceable guys, even at the back of the rotation, that's huge. Then we should get our top-and-middle-of-the-rotation guys from our better prospects. Finally, we should have a lot of payroll room, so I think we will make a splash in free agency to get a good SP or two once it makes sense.

 

I think we will be better next year, but not quite there. By 2018 we could be. There will be a few more big trades before then, but I think Stearns will have been able to find a lot of pieces to the puzzle by then.

[Boomer5]

The offense brought it the last two games!!! That is fun to watch.

[JohnBriggs12]

Brewers are out of the cellar! They also have a better record than 6 other major league teams including the Yankees and Astros. Last year through 25 games, they had the worst record in all of baseball!

 

Progress!!

[DuWayne Steurer]

Counting Gennett and Niewenhuis as "starters", 7 of the Brewers 8 starting position players have an OPS of .750 or higher, excluding only Aaron Hill. When Gennett comes back from injury (and assuming he continues to hit well), the Brewers should be able to field a very competent offense.

 

 

Also, Colin Walsh has a (.389!?!) OBP. As a bench player/PH, he's not a bad option if you just need a guy to take a walk and get on base late in a game.

[pacopete4]

Their offense has been doing very well. It is a breath of fresh air to watch a team not up there swinging out of their shoes. Been very fun so far on that end. If we can hammer home a respectable rotation, we will be a joy to watch this season. Playoff good? Nope. But we'll have our moments.

 

 

 

How awesome has Villar been? A lot of people questioned him being the starter before the season but I think he's done his best to silence the critics. Good for him. Last nights spin-o-rama play was fun to watch!

 

Also, it is great to see a guy like Kirk Newenhuis do a good job for this team. He just may be the answer to our stop gap in CF and give us respectable play out there. Fun, fun!

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

 

How awesome has Villar been? A lot of people questioned him being the starter before the season but I think he's done his best to silence the critics. Good for him. Last nights spin-o-rama play was fun to watch!

 

 

 

I was quietly excited about Villar right when we grabbed him. His MLB numbers so far had been nothing special but he just looked like the type of guy who could have a decent/breakout year if given the chance to play every day. If he could put up a little more pop, he could be a legit 3B candidate for when Arcia takes over the SS position long term.

[JohnBriggs12]

Leicester City, which was 5,000 to 1 prior to the season, clinched the English Premier League soccer championship!

 

If it can happen in soccer, it can happen in baseball!

[CheezWizHed]

Stepping back a couple of games, I appreciated that the Brewers kept trying when they were *thisclose* to being no-hit Friday night. It would have been easy to give up.

That they went from 0-6/thisclose to zero hits, to "winning run at the plate" at the end of the ninth was more impressive yet, not to mention entertaining.

 

(You could argue that a near-no-hitter by the likes of Adam Conley+ doesn't belong in the positive post thread, but my belief is that other than a few rare, N. Ryan or Verlander-type arms, no-hitters are largely random.)

 

I had to say that the (non-sarcastic) standing ovation that the crowd gave Conley was pretty classy for a performance against the home team.

 

And that triple play was awesome! I think it was the first that I've seen live.